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Current Series

4 game series vs Red Sox @ Metrodome

Boston Red Sox Over the Monster @ Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town Friday, May 9, 2008, 8:10 PM EDT Metrodome Jon Lester vs Boof Bonser   Complete Coverage >
Sat 05/10		7:10 PM EDT
Sun 05/11		8:05 PM EDT
Mon 05/12		7:05 PM EDT

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Going In, In Brief

From one pair of Sox to the next, the Twins (17-16) managed to hold onto first place in spite of dropping two of three to the south side of Chicago.  There've been a couple more injuries (Pat Neshek, Scott Baker), but the last week and a half hasn't been too bad from a team perspective; going 7-3 in any stretch is more than acceptable.  The offense still struggles with power and getting on base, which results in inconsistent run support.  If Minnesota wants to continue to remain above .500, the starting pitchers will have to keep locking down the opposition and a few more position players will need to step up on offense.

Boston (23-14) sits atop the AL East, 8-2 in their last ten and just took three of four from the Tigers.  Remember how over-matched the Twins looked against the Tigers last weekend?  This weekend is worse.  The Red Sox, as a team, post an .810 OPS.  As.  A.  Team.  That's sick.  Additionally, their pitching staff is second in the American League in strikeouts; conversely they're fourth in granting walks (about one every two innings).  For a team with a decent batting average, like the Twins, that struggles with power, working a few more walks would definitely help manufacture some runs.

Probable Pitchers

Boof Bonser VS Jon Lester
Glen Perkins VS Daisuke Matsuzaka
Nick Blackburn VS Tim Wakefield
Livan Hernandez VS Clay Buchholz

Opposition Focus

Jon Lester:  Lester's had a couple of disappointing starts this year, but nothing horrendous.  Additionally, he's had a couple of exceptional starts.  He's coming off a pair of starts in which he combined 14 innings, one run and five hits.  He'll get a good share of ground balls, is keeping the ball in the park pretty well, and will get a handful of strikeouts in every outing.  His achilles heel, if he has one, is that he does issue walks.  In fact, his K:BB ratio is virtually one-to-one, so there's something the Twins could build off of.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:  Dice-K has been effective this far into '08, even when he allows eight walks in five innings like he did in his last start versus the Tigers.  Like Lester, he's been helped out by a pretty good defense and a bit of luck, with a BABIP of only .182.  He's completed seven innings only once, and can be erratic with his control on a couple of his pitches, so once again I repeat:  patience is a virtue.  Look at Joe Mauer everybody, and don't be allergic to a base on balls.

Tim Wakefield:  Wakefield's already logged five quality starts this year.  There's that knuckleball, which if the Twins can lay off, they can force some walks.  (Can you tell I'm pushing walks here?  This offense needs to take more walks.  Just sayin'.)  Wakefield is what I'd call effectively wild, because with his arsenal and how he throws, just picking up the ball can be deceptive let alone knowing whether it's a 78-mph fastball or some other junk.  If Minnesota can be judicious in pitch selection, they can work 4-6 walks off the right-handed veteran.  If not, Wakefield might go eight innings and allow two hits.  Ish.

Clay Buchholz:  There's a reason I wanted Santana to go to Boston, and Buchholz was one of those reasons.  Of course it never looked like he was on the table, but he's a good pitcher.  Lots of strikeouts, usually not a lot of walks.  His curveball gets a lot of vertical movement, but his release point isn't as consistent with it, so if hitters can recognize his release point it might tip them off on the curve.  His fastball comes in around 90-92, but his slider, curve and changeup all come within six mph of each other, from 74-80, and because of their individual breaks make for some every effective pitches.

Manny Ramirez:  Sure he's striking out more and walking less, but he's tearing the crap out of opposing pitchers.  .316/.397/.571, lots of line drives (25%), seven bombs and 11 doubles for a .255 ISO.  Manny's about to turn 36 and isn't slowing down.  That's just Manny being Manny.

Jacoby Ellsbury:  Ellsubury is 24 most of this season, so he's a couple years older than Carlos Gomez, but this is the kind of player I can see Gomez turning into.  13 stolen bases, never been caught, lots of line drives (24%), excellent discipline.  He's batting .290/.397/.420.  He looks good.

Kevin Youkilis:  What an on-base machine, and he's smokin' hot right now: 10-for-23 with four doubles and five homers in his last six games.  Again, he doesn't strike out much (12.2%), takes some walks (13.5%), hits a lot of line drives (23%) and his ISO is .275!  If I had one baseball wish, it'd be for Youkilis to hit right behind Joe Mauer.  Mauer would lead off, Youkilis would hit second.  Sigh.

David Ortiz:  He was off to a slow start, but is clicking on all cylinders now.  He's 15-for-35 in his last eight contests, with four doubles and three home runs.  I'm expecting a couple of bombs over the baggie.

Stats

With his slow start in the rear-view mirror, we can only hope that Mauer's approach at the plate (and the ensuing success) can be contagious.  He's now batting .346/.420/.452.

On April 12th, Joe Mauer went 0-for-4 against the Kansas City Royals, giving him quite the dubious start to the season.  Certainly the entire offense was in a disturbing funk, but hitting just .250/.279/.300 and hitting second or third in the batting order, Mauer was sitting at the center of the problem.

Of course in his next game he was again hitless, but did draw a trio of free passes.  Since then he's gone hitless only once, and in his last 17 contests has turned things around impressively.  In that period he's a one-man wrecking crew, hitting .406/.500/.547.  Sure he's still homerless, but with a line like that, who cares?

So, with the prodigal son once again hitting exactly like the baseball diety he's often treated like, it's time to shift our disapproving gaze to a couple other hitters whose power and potential seems to have been zapped by a phantom black hole.

The "Come On Boys, We Need Your Help" Section

Mike Lamb:  Lamb wasn't expected to hit 20 homers, or strike fear into the heart of any pitcher who stepped onto the mound, but the idea behind signing him was that he could easily improve upon Punto's notoriously horrendous output from third base last year.  To this point he's not really doing much better, hitting .207/.224/.272.  If you're wondering if part of the problem is in the splits, don't bother.  He's still doing better versus right-handed pitchers, but it's a moot point right now:  .555 OPS versus righties, .214 OPS versus southpaws.  The free agent investment in Mike Lamb was a smart one, but for the moment it isn't working out.

Delmon Young:  Unlike Lamb, Young had some moderate expectations to deliver some punch in the middle of the order.  After Thursday afternoon's loss to the White Sox he's hitting .264/.308/.304, with only three doubles and no home runs to go along with a very low line-drive percentage (14%) and a whole lot of ground balls (60%).  His isolated power is .042, which is miserable.  On the plus side, at least to this point in the season his walk rates are up slightly, and his strikeout rates are down slightly, in comparison to 2007.  There's clearly loads of raw talent there, we can all see it stewing underneath the surface, so hopefully he can play through this and bust out sometime soon.  Until then, I think he needs to be put On Notice.

Only a half-inning late!

First of all, if you aren't aware of this site yet, I highly recommend you should be.  There's a link to a (pretty humorous) wiki once you get to your game and pitcher, to help explain the tables.  While it is all unofficial, it gives you an excellent overview of a pitcher's performance; from speed to spin to location to break.  We'll borrow a couple of their tables this morning to examine Livandez's complete game from last night.

There are a number of things we assume about Livan Hernandez, partly because he has an extensive track record and partly because we've now seen him throw a few innings for the Twins.  In no particular order, those things are:

1. He doesn't get a lot of movement on his pitches.
2. He doesn't get a lot of velocity behind his throws.
3. He's largely an average pitcher who can eat innings.
4. He likes to eat.

Looking at his Pitchfx graphs from Wednesday's performance against the White Sox, we see what we already knew:  most of those assumptions are true.

Continue reading this post »

Wednesday night, rookie center fielder Carlos Gomez became the first Twin in 22 years to hit for the cycle.  Gomez hit a home run to lead off the game, struck out in the third inning, slapped an RBI triple in the fifth, drove in another run with a double in the sixth, then singled - off the pitcher's glove - in the ninth. He later struck out to end the Twins' six-run ninth inning, and the Twins won the game 13-1.  Nick Punto drove in five runs, and Livan Hernandez lost a shutout with one out in the ninth inning when Jermaine Dye went deep.

A few did-you-knows about cycles:

• The last Twin to hit for the cycle was Kirby Puckett, who accomplished the feat against Oakland on August 1, 1986 .
• Lyman Bostock (July 24, 1976) was the last Twin to complete his cycle with a single.
• Gomez is the first Twin to start his cycle with a home run.
• Bostock was also the last, and only, Twin to hit for the cycle against the White Sox.
• Bostock was the only Twin to go 4-4 to complete his cycle; he also walked and hit a sacrifice fly.  No Twin - and only one player in the majors since 1957 - has ever hit for the cycle in just four plate appearances.
• Gary Ward (September 18, 1980) was the only Twin to accomplish the feat in a loss.  He was also the last Twin to do it on the road.
• Rod Carew (May 20, 1970 ) was the first Twin to hit for the cycle.
• Cesar Tovar (September 19, 1972) completed his cycle with a walkoff, two-run home run in the bottom of the 9th.
• Larry Hisle (June 4, 1976 ) took until the 10th inning to complete his cycle, hitting a two-run homer in the top of the 10th, which turned out to be the game-winner.
• Mike Cubbage (July 27, 1978) was one of two Twins (Carew was the other) to do it from an infield position.
• Like Gomez's, three of the Twins's seven cycles have come from the leadoff spot in the batting order (Puckett, Ward, and Tovar.)
• Like Gomez, Puckett and Bostock were playing center field.  Ward, Hisle, and Tovar were all playing left field.
  
• Like Gomez, Puckett, Bostock, Hisle, and Tovar completed their cycles in the Twins' final at-bat of the game.
• The last cycle in the majors was completed last June 29th, by Baltimore's Aubrey Huff.
• Three teams - Tampa Bay, Florida, and San Diego - have never had a player hit for the cycle.
• There have been 277 cycles in the major leagues, since 1882.

After the jump, the full list of Twins cycles, with dates and play-by-play.

Continue reading this post »

(NOTE: We've been hearing since quarter to 7 that, according to local weather forecasters, the rain should pass in about 20 minutes.  Nearly two hours later, it's still raining in Chicago.)

I really think the rain is about to let up here. This system should be moving through any time now.

You know what else?  I think we've just about got this global warming thing licked.  Seems to me that things have really never been better on the climate change front; people are really making sacrifices, and I'm guessing that within the year, we'll have the atmospheric problems back to pre-1900 levels.

Just a hunch.

Also, I know I might be going out on a limb here, but this recession - forget about it.  It's almost done.  We'll all be sitting pretty, financially, by fourth quarter 2008.  I know that the subprime crisis has proved that the American financial industry is willing to take on any amount of risk to hit short-term profit goals, thus driving up stock prices and therefore executive compensation but deflating the long-term health of the firm, but I really think things are about to turn around.

You want a real prediction?  Labor Day, gas is going to be 83 cents a gallon.  Now that you can take to the bank.

And racism.  I think that's pretty much over, don't you?

But that rain - yep, that should be letting up any minute now.  Take the tarp off.  Let's play some ball.

(Game thread is directly below.  If it ever stops raining.)