Welcome Back to the A.L. Central...

by Jesse on Nov 24, 2005 6:06 PM EST in News

Pending physicals, Jim Thome of Philadelphia returns to the American League Central Division in a swap with the Chicago White Sox for Aaron Rowand.

This move surprises me, because of the implications as much as the obvious. On paper, and in an ideal world, the acquisition of Thome drops a heavy hitter into the middle of Chicago's batting order. In return, Chicago sends a center fielder who was a legitimate Gold Glove contender to Philadelphia.

The Obvious

There are two ways of looking at this. One, let's assume Thome is healthy. If this is the case, not only are the Sox getting a potential 40-homer guy, they're getting him for minimal financial burden when considering his salary. $46 million remains on the 35-year old's contract, of which Chicago will be responsible for only $24 million over the next three years. If Podesdnik moves to center field and one of Chicago's youngsters moves into left, there's a drop in defensive eptitude but probably nothing too significant in terms of allowing runs. Who comes out ahead if this scenario plays out?

Another way of looking at it is that Thome's abilities continue to wane, Chicago loses a top-tier defender in center field, and gets stuck paying $8 million each of the next three years for a guy the Phillies were more than happy to dump. Were they aware of something in Thome's future or were they simply making room for Ryan Howard at first base? Most likely, the answer is a combination of both.

The Implications

What this move implies is that The Big Hurt's days in black are numbered. For years Frank Thomas has been the face of the team, but following consecutive down seasons it appears the franchise has passed him by.

It's also been made clear that the potential acquisition of Thome in no way means that Chicago's pursuit of Paul Konerko is coming to an end. Konerko is still a primary target for the World Series champions, but along with his return the chances of Frank Thomas coming back to Chicago become even more minute. At the end of this deal Chicago is still expanding it's payroll, which could hint at ownership's decision to spend money this offseason in pursuit of not only their own hard-hitting first baseman Konerko, but other specific free agents as well.

The Conclusions

How things look on paper rarely translates into how things look when the dust settles on the regular season. The question here isn't whether Chicago is taking on risk by taking on Thome, but rather whether or not the risk could pay off. Before 2005 the Cleveland Indians signed Juan Gonzalez in an attempt to bolster their lineup. What's different here is that Chicago is not only paying millions more for the chance, they've traded an excellent defender up the middle in the process.

So who comes out ahead? Does it matter whether or not Thome is able to produce, or did they pay too much even if Thome skyjacks 35? Aaron Rowand brought a lot the the table for the White Sox: defense, speed and power at a reasonable price. Off the field he was part of a chemistry that helped Chicago win their first World Series since the Red Sox traded Babe Ruth. For the risk involved, my take is that they payed too much.

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Thomas was already cut

I thought Chicago giving up on Thomas was already given considering they bought out the option on his contract.

Will Jim Thome start 90 games? I'll take the under.

I think the Sox really got fleeced on this one. Not only did they lose Aaron Rowand but they're also giving up 2 lefties in their farm system that are going to be near the top of Baseball Prospectus' top pitching prospects. It doesn't make a lot of sense for the White Sox to deal Rowand because he's the epitome of Ozzie Guillen baseball. But I do have two theories:

Given Rowand's significant power outage in 2005 and the decrease in his bicep size, I've always been very suspicious of steroid usage and Kenny Williams might be afraid of a 50-game suspension.
The White Sox are planning on making a serious run after Ken Griffey Jr. if Konerko does not resign. I hope they get him, but it would be an injury-ridden team all season.

by TheMattWilke on Nov 25, 2005 12:23 PM EST reply actions

Anderson...

Apparently, Brian Anderson has been rated by many scouts to be an even better defensive centerfielder than Rowand. I think this move was made in part to make space for Anderson while filling the need for a good left-handed bat in the lineup. I kind of doubt it means they will be looking to add Griffey, though.

In some ways, this reminds me of the Pierzynski trade, though Anderson isn't the prospect that Mauer was.

by ubelmann on Nov 25, 2005 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Anderson

Anderson has not looked ready to take on big league pitchers yet, and they've been playing him in Right Field when he was called up.

The Chicago press has said nothing about Brian Anderson becoming the center fielder, that was the first I've heard of anything other than either Griffey or Podsednik in center.

I don't think Brian Anderson's the stud prospect that Joe Mauer was. But what I really like about the kid is that he seems to be a really cool guy. One time last year, he was on first base and actually made Justin Morneau crack a smile. Before that, he was striking up a conversation with Mauer at the plate. That impressed me to see him warm up these guys with no personality.

by TheMattWilke on Nov 26, 2005 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Check the record...

First, Brian Anderson played 1 game in RF last year. And at that, he was switched to LF before the game ended.

Every time Anderson was in LF, Rowand was in CF. Every time Anderson played and Aaron Rowand wasn't in the game, Anderson was playing CF. Near as any reasonable observer could tell, the White Sox think Anderson is a fine defensive CF.

By all accounts, Podsednik has a really sub-par arm in LF. Any talk about plans for Griffey in CF are very, very, very premature. For one, Chicago doesn't even have control of him. Then, with all of Griffey's injuries, he's one of the worst defensive CF in the league, and he's got a huge contract that won't fit Chicago's budget if they have any prayer of re-signing Konerko, which would seem to be a lot higher priority.

Anderson hit 0.295/0.360/0.469 last year in AAA. Saying that it's not clear he will hit major league pitching is beside the point. It's never clear that any minor leaguer will hit major league pitching. However, it is clear that Anderson deserves a chance to prove his worth against major league pitching.

And no one said that Anderson was the stud prospect that Mauer was, but it looks like he's going to be first in line for a starting OF position with Rowand out of the way.

by ubelmann on Nov 26, 2005 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

Check Kenny Williams' Record

This guy does not like coming in opening day with prospects starting. He has traded away Aaron Miles and Jeremy Reed, 5 (count 'em) prospects in two trades for Carl Everett, and now his two best pitching prospects for Thome. It took Aaron Rowand years to finally prove his worth as a starter. And it took months of poor El Duque performances before the Sox finally conceded that Brandon McCarthy could pitch at this level.

Kenny Williams hates rolling the dice on prospects, but loves veterans who have passed their peak. Therefore, I think it's a harder sell to say that Brian Anderson is definitely the pick to start in CF instead of a serious pursuit of Griffey especially if Konerko doesn't resign.

by TheMattWilke on Nov 27, 2005 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

And last year...

...who started at 2B for the White Sox? Was it a proven veteran? Nope, it was a rookie from Japan, Tadahito Iguchi.

Williams has shown that he's reluctant in general to start rookies, but that he'll do it here and there.

Does Griffey even want to go to Chicago? If he doesn't, then he can request a trade at the end of his first year in Chicago and if he's not traded, he must be released.

Pursuing Griffey and actually having him are two different things. Right now, Anderson definitely has the edge on Griffey for starting CF next year.

by ubelmann on Nov 27, 2005 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

Iguchi?

Are you serious? You're coming back with Iguchi? He had 10 years of professional experience before making the major leagues. That's a veteran, that's why he nor Hideki Matsui won Rookie of the Year though they made strong cases.

As for Griffey, I don't think he nor anyone would mind coming to the defending champs if they pay him.

by TheMattWilke on Nov 28, 2005 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Just another minor league...

Baseball in Japan is basically just another AAA league. If anyone has doubts about a player being able to make the jump from AAA to major league baseball, they ought to have those same doubts about a player moving from Japan to MLB.

Lew Ford played college ball (D-I, at the very least, is equivalent to A-ball in difficulty) for four years, and then he played six years in the minors before he got to the majors. That's 10 years of pro experience. I didn't see anyone rushing to anoint him as some sort of proven veteran in his rookie season.

And Ichiro won the ROY with the same amount of experience in Japan, so it's not like the voters won't consider those guys rookies.

by ubelmann on Nov 28, 2005 9:23 PM EST up reply actions

It's 20-20, but hindsight is fun, with research

It's always great to find a 10-month old Money magazine in the dentist's waiting room. You can see what the "experts" were saying 10 months ago. It's often comical. Always interesting.

I took a gander at the last two years' Baseball Prospectus to see their appraisal of Rowand, which went from "replacement level reserve" to a wonderful player for many years to come. (As with Bill James, BP misses as often as it hits, telling me you can crunch all the numbers you like and still not be any more accurate long-term than scouts, who didn't deem players such as Don Mattingly to be No. 1 picks.)

I really liked Rowand, even when Baseball Prospectus was dissing him. But then I once liked Rolando Roomes, too.

Rowand could easily go south, and Thome could have a great season. Moving to a new league introduces questions for anyone, so who knows about Rowand?

What this deal reminds me of is two things: the first is the Twins heavily considered adding Andre Thornton of Cleveland at one time. They didn't, and Thornton was done while the Twins surged. The thing this reminds me of is the last time the Sox won the pennant in '59. They went out and traded some prospects for Roy Sievers. It failed.

A couple select historical instances don't mean a damn thing, of course, but they at least suggest to me that adding old sluggers for prospects is a questionable choice. This obviously influences me to think it was a bad deal.

On the other hand, watching Thome loft mammoth balloons in the Dhome was always a lot of fun, so part of me would like this to work out to some degree.

-- People can't stand much reality, and they can't even stand the reality of being told so.

by Firpo Marberry on Nov 25, 2005 5:04 PM EST reply actions

Good Analysis

I already posted this under the 'other copy' of this article, but what the hey, I'll repeat it here...

My initial reaction to the deal was "oh, crap...". Jim Thome is one of those rare hitters that actually strikes fear in opposing pitchers - when he's healthy.

If the White Sox get a healthy Thome next season, this is a great move for them and improves their chances of repeating as AL Central champs. Thome has a lifetime OPS+ of 149, 7th highest among active players.

However, in addition to his elbow tendon problems Thome has chronic back issues, and that ups his risk factor significantly. Even if he's able to take the field those kinds of injuries can degrade a players performance.

The peripheral effects on the White Sox are interesting to consider. First off, it opens up a spot in the outfield for prospect Brian Anderson. Anderson is considered a top ChiSox prospect, but his .295/.360/.469 line at AAA last season is tempered by a 44/115 BB/K ratio. He may develop, but I don't think he'll be all that great in 2006.

More interesting is the Konerko/Thomas situation. When Thomas played he was a masher. But his chronic foot problems have really limited his playing time over the past 2 seasons. Konerko is okay at first, but he's no great shakes. His home/road split in OPS of .959/.863 indicates he's a beneficiary of playing in The Cell.

Given the player profiles you almost have to conclude that Thome is being brought in to replace Thomas. If this is the case then we're looking at exchanging Rowand/Thomas for Anderson/Thome next season. Since we won't be able to draw any definite conclusion about the health issues surrounding Thomas and Thome until the start of next season, this really looks like a wash to me right now.

by hornbakr on Nov 26, 2005 11:19 AM EST reply actions

Major elbow surgery takes time

TR had an interesting comment when Sid brought up Thome's name. He said he wouldn't consider trading for Thome until he saw him play in spring training, which was doubtful because players don't come back from TJ surgery for 12 to 18 months. Sure, he doesn't throw as much as a pitcher, but we're taking about the top hand of a hitter who relies on the top hand more than most.

I'd be surprised if he plays much before the All-star game. Throw in chronic back problems, age and weight, and he's about as valuable as Carl Everett, which hardly seems worth Rowand, two prospects and $26 million over three years. This is a great trade for the Twins and Indians.

Joe Mauer fan since 1998, when I lived next to Cretin's ballfield.

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2005 6:03 PM EST reply actions

Twins Defense

I would like to officially apologize for deriding the Twins defense this past season, and for saying it was obvious to the naked eye that they just plain stunk on defense overall.

Terry Ryan had a few words on the subject in shooter's column:

According to Shooter:

The public assessment of the Twins' woes last season was lack of offense. But it was significantly more than that, Ryan said.

"A lot of people don't talk about our defense, but that contributed every bit as much as our offense in our inability to win games and close games," he said. "I'm just as concerned about our defense as our offense."

For that reason, Ryan isn't focusing solely on offense to improve his club before next season. He's seriously looking for defensive help, too.

"That's what I'm trying to figure out," he said. "We did not play good defense this year."

Ryan wouldn't be specific, but it wasn't just the infield he believes was inadequate.

"It was everything," he said. "We didn't hit the cut-off men, we didn't throw to the right bases. There are a lot of areas that are of concern. We didn't play good baseball in many areas."

Catching, Ryan conceded, was not a concern.

"It's a club thing, not individuals," Ryan said. "Our overall defense was not up to our standards. Yeah, we lost a lot of one-run games, and yeah, you can attribute that to a lack of situational hitting or execution of bunts or not getting people in from third base with one out. But as much as that's responsible to the offensive side, I attribute a lot of that to our lack of defensive ability."

Sometime your low self-esteem is just good common sense.

by statman on Nov 29, 2005 5:04 PM EST reply actions

Please...

Just because Terry Ryan overvalues defense and can't form objective opinions about the Twins' defense doesn't mean we should do the same thing.

The Twins' run prevention last year was more than good enough to win a championship. Any criticisms of it are basically to distract us from the more glaring need of offensive help, which will probably remain unsolved for lack of funds.

"Terry Ryan says so" is not a good argument. He makes mistakes along with everyone else.

by ubelmann on Nov 29, 2005 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

Konerko re-signs with ChiSox

Now it's official - Thome and Konerko are in, leaving little room for Big Frank. Konerko's contract is $60 million over 5 years - I say Chicago looks to move him by year 3.

Anyhow, here's a thought to ponder - should the Twins attempt to sign Thomas to an incentive laden contract?

by hornbakr on Nov 30, 2005 4:55 PM EST reply actions