Ripping Off TG

by Jesse on Nov 29, 2005 8:19 PM EST in News

Salary Outlook for 2006

John used to do this a number of times per year back at his site, and it was a great way to get a glance at not only who would be filling out the roster positions and how much salary Minnesota was dishing out, it was also useful in determining which positions were in need of a player. Things are going to change in the weeks to come, but after making a couple of safer assumptions here is how things fill out as of today.

J.C. Romero

People continue to clamor for Romero's exit, finding comfort in the knowledge that you don't need a LOOGy in your bullpen to actually get that pesky left-handed hitter out. More important than having a southpaw in the bullpen is having a pitcher in the bullpen that can retire batters from the left side. Dropping a couple million isn't going to clear a lot of room under the owner-imposed salary cap, but it could be the difference between acquiring a Piazza/Blalock-caliber character and standing pat.

Joe Nathan

One of our contributors, bjhess, commented on Nathan being the latest trade bait. Looking over the roster he's one of the few players making over a million dollars who many feel could be replaceable. At the Twins page at MLB.com, the latest "Mailbag" asked a question concerning Crain's level of readiness at taking over the closer's role. For at least one more season, I have to agree with the Mailman that moving Nathan to acquire a bat wouldn't be the step forward we need. Nathan has been a premier closer over the past two seasons, has been extremely healthy and realiable, and going into the season without question marks in the ninth inning is a huge positive. Crain is the heir apparent, but $3.75 million isn't a disturbing amount to be paying out for a hard-throwing right hander with an array of pitches, two consecutive All Star appearances, and 87 saves over the past two years.

Shannon Stewart

If you're looking for the player making mega dollars for relatively less in return, the outfielder you're looking for is Shannon Stewart. Many projections have Stewart's numbers continuing to fall, and 2005 has made it abundantly clear that Stewart is no longer the premier leadoff hitter he has been for so many years. The issues in trading Stewart: he's one of few professional hitters in Minnesota's lineup, he could fit into a different role in the batting order, and after losing Jacque Jones (and with Jason Kubel's health still in question), can we really afford to lose a veteran with Stewart's knowledge of the game...and another outfielder?

Conclusions

I'm tired of messing with the formatting for the table above. Come to your own conclusions. I need to eat and I'm too frustrated with my chart.

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Comments

Ugh....

First off, thanks for puttin' up the table, that stuff is very handy to reference.

The wanting to trade Stewart more than Nathan trap seems to be a common one. The problem is that for all the same reasons we want to get rid of Stewart, there aren't going to be nearly as many teams interested in acquiring him. Sure, you can get rid of his salary, but unless you have a plan in place to use that money for a better purpose, it doesn't do any good to just get rid of salary.

I don't want to give the impression that we should just trade Nathan because he's likely very valuable on the trade market. However, I don't think Terry Ryan is doing a very good job if he isn't seriously entertaining offers and maybe asking around a bit to find out what he can get for Joe. Maybe there isn't a good offer out there, but it would be a shame to miss one because we weren't considering the possibility.

by ubelmann on Nov 30, 2005 2:39 AM EST reply actions

League Minimum

You show most of the players like LRod, Bartlett, Kubel, etc. at $400,000. They will likely be at the League Minimum...I haven't read the exact number but was thinking it was closer to $330,000 or is it $400,000?

Being in their 3rd year of arbitration eligible, won't Cuddyer, Punto and Ford make more than $400,00? Mark Sheldon reported estimates of the Twins payroll situation back in October, he was estimating that Lohse, Ford and Cuddyer would get around $6.0mm total for the three of them. That would likely mean that Cuddyer and Ford would be around $750,000 each, assuming Lohse wins arbitration at $4.5mm!

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Nov 30, 2005 8:49 AM EST reply actions

Punto, Cuddyer

Both of them are eligible for arbitration this offseason and should get contracts that are a little less than $1mm. Ford, on the other hand, is still a 3rd year serf.

by snuessle on Nov 30, 2005 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

You're Right

This will have to be re-tooled when they have their offers on the table, for sure. It will be easier to get a look at this chart again in January.

by Jesse on Nov 30, 2005 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

You're Right

This will have to be re-tooled when they have their offers on the table, for sure. It will be easier to get a look at this chart again in January.

by Jesse on Nov 30, 2005 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

Glad You're Here

I tried emailing you to invite you to the site, but the address I had didn't work. Regardless, glad you're here.

As for the numbers, it was a structure I completely ripped from TG. I had the contract numbers, and in passing thought $400K was a decent average considering all the rookies and players who weren't going to be making millions of dollars. I was wondering if the numbers would be wrong, but the total payroll isn't too far off what it should be at the moment. Next time for certain, however, I'll be gathering precise salaries for the serfs. In the mean time, it's a rough estimate.

by Jesse on Nov 30, 2005 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

Not a bad bunch of guys for only $53 million!

We're certainly paying the bill on Stewart now, but he was a key player in our run of division titles, so it's not like we got hosed or anything. It would be nice if Stewart would just accept a DH role and stay out of the field to protect his foot. I know, I know - he's not the type of hitter you want at DH, but Stewie with sore feet is a double whammy: mediocre hitter AND bad fielder.

If only we can find that third baseman and right-handed-slugging corner outfielder we need...

by hornbakr on Nov 30, 2005 4:49 PM EST reply actions

It's not like he's blocking anyone...

Typically, you wouldn't want someone like Stewart at DH because you would have your general Frank Thomas or Jim Thome-type lead footed, iron-gloved slugger there. (Or in cases of lower budget, guys like Matthew LeCroy, Calvin Pickering, etc.) But, the Twins don't have anyone like that to DH anyway.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that the best lineup, given the current roster, is one with Stewart at DH. It makes no sense to me that Ford should be DH'ing and Stewart should be in LF when the organization clearly thinks highly of Ford's fielding ability. Stewart should be more concerned about keeping his foot healthy than he should be about keeping his ego healthy.

by ubelmann on Nov 30, 2005 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

Initially...

I had Stewart at DH, but recently I'd read Kubel may not be ready to run full out by spring training. So I DH'd him. I'd prefer Stewart to DH as well, until we get a better option.

by Jesse on Nov 30, 2005 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

Kubel

None of us know whether or not Kubel will be ready for opening day. Sid stated in his column recentlyh that he wouldn't, however, TRyan has been consistent in his comments that he would be ready for spring and Kubel himself has stated that he plans on being the starting right fielder on opening day.

Doc Clancy was quoted in the Strib recently when talking about Culpepper (who has a similar injury), that a player would be able to play in a year and should be 100% in 18 months. Opening of spring training will be 15 months for Kubel, June 1 will be 18 months. Clancy is with the highly regarded Alabama Clinic that does a lot of knee surgery, so one should give some credence to his comments. However, he didn't do the surgery and probably has never seen Kubel's knee. I knew Clancy a bit while still living in Madison when he was an up and coming knee surgeon for athletes at UW hospitals. He has been at this a long time and knows knees as well as anyone...hopefully he is right and Jason will be playing right field in the Dome on June 1.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Nov 30, 2005 8:39 PM EST up reply actions

Right on...

If, if Kubel is healthy opening day, he's probably the DH. But like you point out, that's still in question. I think it could go either way, but I'd rather have the team be a little cautious, and bring Kubel back a bit conservatively rather than rush things and have him sit out more than he has to. It's at least worth noting, like you say, that a 15-month recovery is on the optimistic side of a standard 18-month recovery.

by ubelmann on Nov 30, 2005 9:51 PM EST up reply actions