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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Winter Meetings Speculation

"I think we should be able to [make some moves].  I've got enough going on down here that I think we should be able to get some sort of fit there." -Terry Ryan

It's hard to keep it all straight at this point.  There's a lot going on, and so much of it includes different teams and different players...and a lot of those players and teams are overlapping.

Frank Thomas

Someone I was never that hot on, the Thomas Talk has begun to cool dramatically.  He'll be 38 in May and has averaged only 86 games per year since 2001.  At age 35 he hit 35 homers in 153 games, but by the time the season starts he'll be nearly 3 years removed from that feat and can't be counted on to be a consistent presence in the lineup.

Additionally, it's been rumored that Oakland is close to offering Thomas specific dollar amounts, something that Minnesota isn't close to doing.  Speaking of dealing with Frank Thomas, Ryan has said "We're not even talking about dollars or offers yet."  If the Twins were seriously interested in Frank, and I certainly hope they weren't, they would have at least had semi-serious discussions involving contract talks.

Go to Oakland, Mr. Thomas.  Enjoy your twighlight, and be sure to bring your spare parts with you.

Nomar Garciaparra and Mike Piazza

Depending on the day I flip back and forth on which one I would rather have...if I'd have either one at all.  Garciaparra is younger and could be an everyday DH while filling in at third, but Piazza is a veteran and could provide leadership.  Whether or not either one could produce at a level the Twins would expect them to is up for debate, and this fact alone is enough to scare me away from both of them.  Today, anyway.

Ryan has acknowledged that there have been talks with both Garciaparra and Piazza, but nothing more has been confirmed.

Renteria, Marte, Lugo...Minnesota?

After a disappointing season in Boston, the Red Sox have jettisoned Edgar Renteria to Atlanta, who was in need of a shortstop after the departure of Rafael Furcal.  In return, the Braves sent Boston their 3B prospect Andy Marte.  Marte suffered in limited time in Atlanta last season, but he'll only be 22 coming into 2006.  In 2004 and 2005 in Atlanta's AA and AAA affiliates, Marte hit 43 home runs and notched 142 RBI with respective OPS of .889 and .878.

What's interesting about this move is that the acquisition of Marte causes a logjam at 3B for Boston...being Kevin Youkilis has been the heir apparent for the past couple seasons.  At 27 when the season opens, Youkilis can hardly be dubbed a prospect, but the liklihood of the Red Sox keeping both he and Marte around seems slim.  Enter the rumored deal of Boston dealing Marte to Tampa Bay for Julio Lugo.

If Marte lands with the Devil Rays, he'll join with a number of other youngsters that will spend the next 3 or 4 seasons going through growing pains together.  And if, indeed, he does land with the Devil Rays, could this mean Aubrey Huff could be had at a reasonable cost?  It's been mentioned on this site already, but if you include a couple of pitching prospects and an established player...say Durbin, Perkins and Ford or Bonser, Perkins and Crain...could Tampa say no?

For Minnesota, Huff not only fills a need at 3B, he can hit southpaw pitching and brings a big stick to the lineup.  Would I be excited to see Huff in Minnesota?  Yes.  Is he my ideal choice?  Absolutely not.

Hank Blalock

  Year   Age   2B   HR   OPS  Games   FP
  2003   22     33   29   .872    143   .959
  2004   23     38   32   .855    159   .957
  2005   24     34   25   .749    161   .973

His most similar offensive comparison by age is Scott Rolen.  Other similar batters are Eric Chavez, Gary Sheffield and Troy Glaus through age 24.

This is the guy I'd be elated about if Ryan was able to swing a deal.  His numbers were down in 2005 in comparison to his two prior seasons, but at age 25 he's still on the incline into his physical prime.  2006 will be his fourth year as a regular player, and with an decent glove and a sorely needed big stick, if he can be had for the right price he fits the bill.

On Blalock's downside his OBP dropped from the .350's in '03 and '04 to .318 in '05.  He also strikes out a lot; a combined 281 times the past two seasons.

Whether or not Kevin Mench would be included in the deal is a moot point.  Mench is a bonus, he could be useful--Blalock is the centerpiece.

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Blalock seems more interesting now ...
Forgive me, I've not paid enough attention to realize he's only 25.

I'm no longer inclined (as some are) to pronounce him an "Arlington only" hitter; he's not been around enough for anyone to say "what you see is all there will be."

by BD57 on Dec 8, 2005 8:54 PM EST reply actions  

Is there some data
...on Blalock's home/road splits? Or even park adjusted numbers?

by MNPundit on Dec 9, 2005 2:28 AM EST reply actions  

Arlington Alert!
I was thinking the same thing as you, so I looked up his home/road splits.  It's not pretty.  Last year, Blalock had AVG/OBP/SLG of .297/.361/.534 (895 OPS) with 20 homers at home, and .231/.276/.335 (611 OPS) with 5 homers on the road.  His 3-year splits from 2002-2004 are more of the same:

Home: .342/.399/.615 (1014 OPS), 54 HR
Away: .243/.300/.407 (707 OPS), 32 HR

His splits were not quite as bad in '04 alone (16 HR both home and away, difference of 150 OPS), but they still weren't great, especially considering that the Dome isn't really a hitter's park.

As an aside, his stats in the Metrodome are horrific (OPS under 500), but I'm willing to chalk that up to a combination of low sample size and the Twins having a good pitching staff during his career.

by BeefMaster on Dec 9, 2005 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks BeefMaster
It's good to see the splits, except the Metrodome really IS a hitters park. According to this, it's the 7th most hitter friendly park in baseball.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Kind of makes our team look worse though.

by MNPundit on Dec 9, 2005 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

Look at the number...
...not the ranking.  It might rank whatever it ranks, but a 102 park factor is essentially league average.  Not really a hitter's park, and not really a pitcher's park.

Plus, one-year park factors are notoriously flaky, so I wouldn't especially trust these numbers.  I mean, do we really think that Jacobs Field somehow increased offensive production by 50%?  That's even way past Coors territory there, and I don't see any reason to suspect that Cleveland has an especially hitting friendly park.

A 2% difference from average in a one-year park factor isn't enough to say the dome is much of a hitter's park.

by ubelmann on Dec 9, 2005 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Weird Link
I can't figure out what is up with ESPN's links to park factors - the link returns different results clicking the different years in different orders.  I looked it up this morning before I posted, and the Dome was 14th with a park factor of 1.076 - not enough that I felt it necessary to edit my post.  Now when I try your link and click from year to year, the Metrodome ranks either 7th, 10th, 12th, or 14th last year, depending on what the internets decide to return.

Anyway the Dome did have a park factor above 1 in all those results, so it was slightly tilted toward offense, but it also had a factor below 1 for homeruns in most years (it ranged from 0.864 to 1.032).  Blalock's home/road differential is made up entirely of homeruns and singles, so regardless, the Dome probably won't help him that much.

by BeefMaster on Dec 9, 2005 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

You're right
....it is a really bizarre link. ESPN = messed up I guess. I think I can safely say only that the dome is SLIGHTLY above average for runs.

The point I am trying to make is, to expect some sort of decline from Blalock if he goes to the Twins. Of course, he is still "young" but then again we've had a lot of promising "young" players stay promising right up until they're "not young."

by MNPundit on Dec 9, 2005 7:29 PM EST up reply actions  

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