ZiPS: Twins Win Division!

by Aaron Fix on Jan 31, 2006 10:57 PM EST Comment 14 comments

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/01/its-early-projection-time.html

I don't have this Diamond Mind Baseball software, and I don't plan on playing any computer games to simulate an entire baseball season, but thankfully someone else has and we get to look at it. Apparently the ZiPS projection favors younger players and handicaps older players, and the guy running the projections has to choose the starting 9 and the 5 man rotation for all 30 teams, so there is some uncertainty, but I found this interesting nonetheless. If anyone is familiar with the software perhaps they would like to shed some light on the subject.

What's noticeable is that according to this projection the Red Sox are noticeably better than the Yankees, the Twins somehow win the central with 86 wins and the White Sox tie with Detroit for third in the division. There are other surprises all over the place (I don't think the Cubs or Cardinals are going to be that good, I don't think Houston is going to be that bad). Has anyone ever ran these projections, and what sort of accuracy did you find? What can affect the results? Any insight would be appreciated.

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Virtually questionable

>>What can affect the results?

Actually having to play the games?

by Firpo Marberry on Jan 31, 2006 11:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You forgot...

...the most important part of the results. The Twins were predicted, on average, to win the division, but still only given 47% odds to make the playoffs. It was also only 100 trials, and for something like this, I'd rather see something more like 100,000 trials or 1,000,000 trials to really make sure you are getting out what the simulation actually predicts, and not just a fluky subset of simulations.

If anything, though, I generally like this team's depth, especially in pitching, and I think a simulation that uses just the Twins' best 14 players will tend to underrate the Twins relative to the field just a bit.

by ubelmann on Feb 1, 2006 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Over/Under

I've seen Over?unders on the Twins wins at 80.

That is ridiculous. We won 83 last year and we are a MUCH bettr team this year.

The Yankee's over under was the highest of any team by 6 games at 100, so that may give an indication of what kind of odds they were.

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 1, 2006 6:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

90 wins minimum

I fully expect us to win at least 90 games, and IF the 4/5 spots in the rotation are okay (I expect them to be--ie we trade Lohse for an upgrade at 3b/LF) then we will win more, and definitely will win the division.

by djskilbr on Feb 2, 2006 11:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lohse for Mora

I really think this deal could go down at some point during the season, assuming that both players produce at the levels that you would expect. The deal makes sense for both teams, as Mora will probably not return to Baltimore after the season, and they have a need for pitching and have said in the past that they are high on Lohse. By midseason, if all pitchers are healthy and Liriano is as filthy as we think he is going to be, Lohse will be an unnecessary luxury for the Twins as well. Also, if Lohse wins his arbitration case (which I think he will), the salaries will be $4m for Mora and $3.9m for Lohse, which match up nicely.

At this point, though, I would reather have Lohse. I think it makes sense to keep either Liriano or Baker in AAA to start the season and have a veteran staff as well as a solid 6th starter in case of injury, particularly since Radke and Silva are coming off of being shut down because of injury. I, like most people here, am not the biggest fan of Batista, but I don't see much harm in giving him a month to see what he has left, especially since he will probably be batting 8th. This assumes, of course, that Batista proves himself somewhat in spring training.

By the middle of the year, the Twins could acquire Mora for Lohse and Kubel will get his stroke back. Imagine this lineup bringing us home down the stretch.

Stewart LF
Castillo 2B
Mauer C
White DH
Morneau 1B
Hunter CF
Mora 3B
Kubel RF
Bartlett SS

by snuessle on Feb 3, 2006 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drool

With that line-up in the playoffs and this pitching staff, I like our chances against anyone. I might bat Mora higher, but that's as solid a 1-9 as the Twins have had since '91.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 3, 2006 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would

If that deal happened...

As much as I like having Lohse...

I would, how shall I say...

Have to change pants.

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 3, 2006 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup at midseason...

Seeing White there makes me think you're an optimist!

Wouldn't it be great if the best case scenario worked out?

Sometime your low self-esteem is just good common sense.

by statman on Feb 3, 2006 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

I've been a HUGE proponent of this move for a long time. It's perfect for us. And I think we could have a good shot at signing Mora long-term if we were able to go deep into the playoffs, which I would expect us to after such a deal. We have Stewart's contract coming off the books for 2007, plus Lohse would be gone. We could simply put Cuddyer in LF, and we'd be set again. That would be roughly 10 million to work with to sign Mora, of which obviously some will go to players' salary increases, but I bet we could sign him for 6 or so per, and you would have to think that there will be at minimum a small salary boost again.

I truly believe that Liriano will be the Santana of 2003 for this team, blossoming down the stretch for us. I truly believe with that deal, we would be the most complete team in baseball, having solid hitters throughout the lineup, as well as being young and energetic, with the best overall staff in baseball.

My lineup would be more like:

1-Castillo-2b
2-Mora-3b
3-Mauer-C
4-White-DH
5-Morneau-1b
6-Hunter-CF
7-Kubel-RF
8-Stewart-LF
9-Barltett-SS

Giving us L-R throughout.

by djskilbr on Feb 3, 2006 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's even better

As much as I hope Stewart will rebound this year and defy his projection as an aging and marginally productive player, I must admit I'm not optimistic (read that Aaron Gleeman, there is a Twins-related subject that I'm not optimitsic about). As odd as this might sound, he's old for his age. He started his MLB career early and he's played all of it on turf. The last two years, he's been very fragile. And his steals numbers are a tell-tale sign that he's lost at least one step. I hope I'm wrong here, but I predict something like what he gave us last year, perhaps a little better with better protection at the top of the order.

If we acquired Mora, he'd be much better suited than Stewart at the top of the order. And Stewart loses out by default over evey other guy in that lineup except Bartlett. I love the SRLRLRLRR lineup.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 3, 2006 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks...

I just hope it happens. I really do believe we'd be the best team out there. An at least average hitter at every single spot in the lineup, plus the best staff in baseball. Come on TR!!!

by djskilbr on Feb 3, 2006 8:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A note on these ZIPS projections...

...they project the White Sox pitching to fall way off this year (i.e. zero pitchers with ERAs under 3.75, after having eight such pitchers in 2005). As much as we like the Twins pitching, last year Chicago and Cleveland both out-pitched us and tied for the league lead with a 3.61 ERA. Maybe some of that was flukey, but I don't know if both staffs will fall significantly this year.

by spycake on Feb 6, 2006 8:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs