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Offseason adjustments

I already posted some of this here, but I'm going to repost my idea for what the Twins should do:

We desperately need a 3B that hits for average and power. I like Punto, but we need one or two less singles hitters in the linup. Even if Punto wasn't a fluke this year, I think he is better served as a sub for 3b, ss, and 2b. That should help keep everyone rested as well as give him 400+ PAs if he isn't a fluke. If he was a fluke, he goes back to being a late inning defensive replacement. I don't see a decent FA 3B in the market, with one exception... One thread at DTFC mentioned a Japanese FA that looked pretty intruiging. If there's not bidding war for his services, TR would be wise in inking him. If he was inked, then my trade proposal here would be for a very good starter instead of a 3B. Here goes:

Resign White as a DH/LF. Kubel should be the starting LF, but gets switched to DH and rested frequently to protect his knee. I think he will do much better next year, with a bit more time working on that knee, but the Twins should play it safe with him over then next year or two. White really showed what we hoped we'd see in the second half. If the Twins are smart about it, they'd resign him. White can be had cheaply, and Ryan may be able to get him a contract with incentives that would allow him to make what he could have made had his option vested. I'd also add a second option to this to get him for another year at a similar price if he performs.

Consider trading Crain/Rincoln and/or propsects to get a good, solid 3B. I'd be open to trading Nathan too, but they had better get an amazing deal for Nathan. The 3B needs to hit for average with some power, and preferably be a RH hitter.  I am not up on which teams have what in their minor league system.  One team that makes a logical partner would be the WhiteSox.  They have Joe Crede blocking Josh Fields.  Either one would fit the type of player I'd like.  And if the Twins were in teh NL central, they would trade one of them in a heartbeat for Rincoln and Crain.  Unfortunately, I doubt that happens, unless it's a 3 way deal.  I'm really curious what you minor league buffs think the Twins could get at 3B for Rincoln and/or Crain.

Depending on the market, maybe they can get a decent innings eater to help the rotation also. We have plenty of pitching prospects that could move into the pen, and our pen would still be fairly strong. I also think time in the pen would do Baker and Perkins good, as they'd better learn how to pitch out of jams. Then you can move one of them into the rotation if needed.

My next years starting team:

  1. Castillo/Punto
  2. Bartlett/Punto
  3. Mauer
  4. Cuddyer
  5. Morneau
  6. new 3B aquisition
  7. White
  8. Hunter
  9. Kubel
(if the 3B has little major leage experience, I'd drop him down in the order a bit)

There's a lot of 20-30 HR potential in the 3-9 slots. Quite a few guys should be sporting .280 BAs as well, giving us an offense that MIGHT score 900 runs (assuming health, it should come close)...

Starting Pitchers:

  1. Santana
  2. Liriano
  3. Boof
  4. FA/trade or one of Baker/Perkins/Durbin/Slowey.  Maybe convince Radke to go for one more year at a cheap price.
  5. Garza
This rotation wouldn't be bad.  I think the top 3 could all have ERAs under 4.  I expect Garza to make major strides, which if he does would put him in the 4 slot.  Liriano's health is the obvious question mark here.  I can understand why Ryan would go out and get a vet.  However, I have no idea why he'd want Silva.  If he picks up Silva's option, we just have one more person to throw into the mix of question marks for the #4 slot.  I'd rather trust the young guys.

Bullpen

  1. Nathan
  2. Neshek
  3. Guerrier
  4. Baker/Perkins/Durbin
  5. Eyre
  6. Reyes
This is still a very good pen.  Easily top 5.  Guerrier gets a well deserved promotion into a more challenging role.  Eyre becomes the main mop up man.  I suspect one of the Baker/Perkins/Durbin combo can be a very good reliever who can be promoted to a starter in due time.

Bench

  1. Punto
  2. Rabe or Tyner (preferably Rabe I think)
  3. Redmond
  4. Lrod or Casilla
  5. Cheap FA... Actually, Matthew Lecroy comes to mind. He's a cheaper version of Nevin.  He has power, and would probaby put up better PH numbers than Nevin.  He also hits lefties well, and could occasionaly DH against tough lefties.  I think he's a FA too, though I could be wrong. He could be had for pretty close to the league minimum.  
I think this team would be well positioned to win it all.  The biggest question mark is pitching, which is no different from this team if we maintain it.  The difference being is that the offence is something most teams would fear, and we have a bit more depth on the bench.  It should be able to overcome some of the more ineffective starts in the back of the rotation.  The defense should also be very solid.

There shouldn't be any major payroll issues here either, as the only major addition would be the 3B.  Removing Rincoln and Crain should come very close to evening it out, and could save us cash if we got a major league ready 3B prospect for them.  I'd also be up for trading Hunter, but I fear removing him would be making one hole in favor of plugging another.  In this scenario, Hunter goes to the bottom of the order, where I don't think he hurts us as much.  

Here's the added bonus, this entire roster could be contructed before FA begins, thereby leaving Ryan firmly in controll... Far better than getting in a bidding war.  

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one minor point
After rethinking this, I'm guessing it would be Tyner over Rabe b/c he can play CF...  Minor point though.

by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 12, 2006 8:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Twins need.....
Yes, Rondell White could be the answer...

But the Twins bigger concern is a DH that can also play first base/ The Twins have absolutely no abckup for first if something happens to Justin, unless you do put Cuddyer back in the picture.

There are basically no third basemen to be had. Or questionable wannabees from other teams (Marte, Fields, whomever the Dodgers have/had).

Now that the Hunter question ash been answered, the Kubel question has to be answered. Do we need a left-fielder. Tyner and Ford are good #4 guys, but both don't play well if they don't play regularly, it seems. But one has to stay around to spell the centerfield guy. We can go with a singles hitter in left -- 4 piranhas are one too many.

Punto may not be the answer, but here's hoping someone is fast tracked to come up by the end of '07 and start big in '08 and then the Twins have to make the decision about second --  let Luis go (yes), keep Punto -- who is making even bigger bucks -- as a reserve, or have anotehr rookie, Casilla, in the batter's box.

If the Twins can get a modest power punch or can play first and maybe a few other positions (not Nevin but like Nevin) or even catch (don't relish Piazza)...then they are pretty set for next season and we have to hope that the players can repeat their '06 numbers or even excel in some places (like less double-plays and groundouts, period).

by twintown on Oct 12, 2006 12:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

First
Micheal Cuddyer can play there.  We don't really need to worry about a backup first baseman.  Almost anybody who isn't a middle infielder (tha mean you Punto) can be taught to play first base.  It isn't a position you really need to back up so much beyond a guy like Cuddyer.
"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 12, 2006 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Familiar
But the Twins bigger concern is a DH that can also play first base/ The Twins have absolutely no abckup for first if something happens to Justin, unless you do put Cuddyer back in the picture.

...

If the Twins can get a modest power punch or can play first and maybe a few other positions (not Nevin but like Nevin) or even catch (don't relish Piazza)...then they are pretty set for next season and we have to hope that the players can repeat their '06 numbers or even excel in some places (like less double-plays and groundouts, period).

Hmmm...  A backup first baseman...  who can be the emergency/third catcher...  who can pinch hit and DH against a tough lefty (to replace Kubel in the lineup)...  not Nevin, but someone like Nevin...

Sounds like the aforementioned Matthey LeCroy to me.  Could it be that LeCroy could be a key free agent pickup for the Twins this offseason?

-Flip

by Flip27 on Oct 13, 2006 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fatty is neither a catcher nor a first baseman
I know everyone loves him, and he is a likeable guy. But Mathew's career is over. His knees disintegrated on him and his arm has becaome a show stopper. He can't catch anymore, which is why Gardy insisted on bringing Corky Miller north with the team in 2005. He can't play first base anymore, which is why the Twins nontendered him after the 2005 season. And both those judgements were confirmed in spades when Washington released him. If all you can do is swing a bat against left-handed pitchers, you can't play in the majors anymore.
Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 13, 2006 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Lecroy only makes sense as a DH for a team with no other option.  He would be a cheep option better than, I dunno, what KC had there this year or something.
"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 13, 2006 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting...
and I basically wholeheartedly agree with this.  I still think we only need a stopgap 3b.  I don't want to commit to any 3b for more than 2 years because I firmly believe one of our guys will be ready by then.

And I'm curious on the Japanese 3b that you mention.  Any link to who it is/information on him?  The only guy that I'm deathly afraid of on the FA market is Matsuzaka, who I firmly believe will be one of the VERY best pitchers in the majors NEXT YEAR!  He's that good to me, and I cringe at the thought of a Yankee 1-2-3 of Matsuzaka-Hughes-Wang.

Anyone else have this sick feeling?

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 12:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd
be more worried about King Felix and Matsuzaka honestly.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Confused...
"than" or "and"?

I'm worried about both.  But I'm a whole lot more worried about the Yankees possible big 3 by the end of the year.  Imagine just have Mussina/Johnson as a "4th" in a playoff series.  That frightens me if they can find a bullpen corp.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was just
try to say that I think that Matsuzaka plays for the M's next year. they don't take the Posting fee into account with thier budget so they will make a good bid and with thier owner being Japanese he will make a huge push for him. Also I think Wang will regress and have a hard time repeating his sucess and Mussina isn't a lock for the Yankees next year his option is expense and he may get better offers. Hughes isn't even in the Majors yet Felix is and Johnson had a era of 5.00 this year nothing to be scared of. Matsuzaka would then be the one guy to worry about and there's porbally less than a 20% that the yanks get him. Boston, the Mets, Dodgers, and basicly every big revenue team will want him. Just my toughts.  

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what the?
how does he appear on "minnesota?"  

i don't think there's a chance in heck it happens, but man, just think about that FILTHY rotation.  

santana-matsuzaka-liriano could be 3 of the top 5-10 pitchers in ALL of baseball next year, and then garza/boof as 4/5?  i mean, that's not even fair with our bullpen.  lights out for everyone.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No doubt
it'd be insane and would never happen but hey maybe Jim thinks he can generate revenue from Japan to pay for the posting fee.

Ok that's enought of me trying to talk my self into that this is a possiblity. I've got to stop doing this.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha, me too...
but geez, that would be special.  we'd need roughly a run per game.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Japanese pitcher
Everyone thought he'd be a free agent after the '07 season, but the team released him so he could pursue a major league contract this year. But before you can negotiate with the pitcher, you have to pay a fee to his old team, which the Twins supposedly have done for rights to try and sign him. If they don't...they get the fee back and the next highest bidder gets to take a shot.

by twintown on Oct 12, 2006 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WHAT?
We won the bidding already?  Where do you get this info?  The highest bidding fee was projected to be anywhere from $15 to $25 million JUST to get to the point of negotiating a deal with him.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well the
team didn't release him they still have year on his contract and after that he'd be a freeagent and the team would get nothing for him if he signed with a MLB team. Since the Japanese team holds his contract they are selling his rights to the highest bidder. Which is how you said it was done it's just that he's not a FA now the team is just opening bids for him if he wants to come over he could after 07 with no posting fee this way the Japanese team gets something for him. If no contract is reached he will pitch in Japan in 07.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right...
I was referring to the (I believe erroneous) mention that the Twins had won the bidding on him.  If they did, I'd about have a heart attack from the joy/knowledge of how many future World Series titles we'd be winning.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my
comment was in response to Twinstown to clear up some of the issues regarding Contrat staus.

Yeah there's no way we won the bidding for him.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK..
Ya, I believe the bidding process is much like the draft signing process.  Essentially, the highest bidder gets a 30 day window to negotiate with Matsuzaka and his agents.  If they are unable to come to terms, then the posting fee is refunded to the highest bidder, and Matsuzaka can not post again for 1 year (ie, he would have to try to go MLB in 2008 instead).  

I had found this on something (can't remember the site) a few days ago and it struck me because I would think that gives the highest bidder immense leverage.  You can essentially say: "hey, you want to come over here, sign on our terms.  otherwise, wait a year.  we won't lose anything (refund), and if nothing else it keeps our competitor bidders away from you."

I believe the information I found for the process was accurate, but I'm not 100 percent sure.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here is the player
http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=993

In retrospect, it would be a decent pickup, but he seems to strike out a lot.  Although his OBP is pretty decent too.

Here's where I found it.

http://p216.ezboard.com/fdtfcdtfcminnesotatwinsforum.showMessageRange?topicID=4883.topic&start=1 81&stop=200

Let's just hold out hope that TR got matsuzaka inked already and no press release has come out yet. :)

by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 12, 2006 2:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is this guy
the brick shithouse who batted in the middle of the Japanese order in the WBC?  

by wcooley on Oct 12, 2006 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I belive
that was the 30 year old 1b who hit 5 hrs in 6 games. He may also be coming over this year he has hit over 400 hrs in his career.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3rd Base Solution
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wont that Cuban kid be playing ball in America next summer.  I believe his name is  Yulieski Gourriel.  I'm not sure how you say it, but I've heard it's pronounced s-tu-duh.  Not only is he an amazing talent (Fidel Castro called him the best 3rd basemen in the world, and granted Castro might be somewhat biased... but he does know his baseball) but he's young as well (22).  He played the bulk of his innings at 2nd in the WBC, but they say his natural position is at the hot corner.  Maybe the Matsuzaka bidding war will generate enough news that the Twins will sweep in and steal Gourriel.  Here's hoping.

by SDTwinsFan on Oct 12, 2006 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Still in Cuba
He's still in Cuba, so he has to find a way to get to America, provided that he wants to.  I don't think you can put a timetable on that.  Maybe he'll leave someday, but I'm not holding my breath.

by ubelmann on Oct 12, 2006 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He
has yet to defect although there has been rumors for a long time.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right...
there was a false rumor just about 2-3 months ago that he had defected (he had not) and I actually started a thread based entirely on that.  Gourriel is a superstud (I liken him to a 3b version of Miguel Tejada) and I would kill to have him.  But we can't even debate that yet.  

For now, I'll stick to my Matsuzaka pipedream.  But imagine getting BOTH!......    :)

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why Stop at Matsuzaka and Gourriel?
I think this Matsuzaka pipedream is even more far-fetched than our trade proposals for Miguel Cabrera a few months ago.  Adding Gourriel is even more ridiculous...though it is still fun to dream.

If we're going to think big, why don't we just add ARod and Scmidt while we're at it?

It's funny to me that we (the bloggers) have such grand plans for the Twins' roster every off-season, even though we continually sign bums like Castro, Batista, Blanco, etc. from the FA market.  

I generally like the Twins' approach of building from within, but it would be nice to sign just ONE impact FA at some point.  Looking back at the Twins' playoff appearances of the past several years, I feel that we have only been 1 or 2 good players short of a WS appearance or win...particularly the year the Angels beat us a few seasons ago.

by MauerPower on Oct 12, 2006 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Realistic?
Well, Terry Ryan will sign a couple of low-end schlubs...a dying starter and maybe a hitter above Matt LeCroy.

He might be able to pull off a trade, if there is a market for Silva (assume he signs), Lew Ford, Castillo, Baker. I don't see him dangling any of the regulars, and of the names above, I don't see a bunch of people lining up.

Ryan does have prospects to potentially deal. He needs to package someone somehow (like he did for Castillo). Otehrwise, the General Managers will just sit back and wait for them to become Rule 5 or minor league freee agents. Now that's the tough call.

It would be nice if Carl would give Terry $10 million or so above and beyond what he intends JUST to sign some flashy name to get some headlines AND also really help the team. But....I see Uncle Carl spending more time trying to figure out how to get some of that 7-11 money instead!

by twintown on Oct 12, 2006 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When
when we won the series it was good Freeagents that pushes us over the edge and made us champs.

But that was a different GM.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 12, 2006 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mulder and Feliz
Is Mark Mulder a FA after this season?  If so, is he expected to come back from his injury?

What do you think it would take to sign him, and would he be worth the risk?  I remember Chris Carpenter was signed at a bargain price a few years back coming off of injury, and I thought the Twins should have given him a chance.  That deal has turned out pretty well for the Cards.

It has been mentioned elsewhere, but I also think that Randy Wolf or Tony Armas are potential steals, assuming they can return from injury.

Also, isn't Pedro Feliz scheduled to become a FA for 2007 (at least according to mlb4u.com)?  I think he would fit in as a solid DH and 3B fill-in, at somewhat reasonable price.  He strikes out a lot, but he has some power and would be able to platoon with Kubel at DH and Punto at 3B.

by MauerPower on Oct 12, 2006 10:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mulder's numbers are...
Questionable.  He had thre great years, but then one diminishing year, then a good year, but it was aginst NL pitcehrs.  He was hurt this year, but was still terrible.

So maybe, but I bet someone else will give him more money than is worth the risk for us.

He'd be a good signing for the Yankees.

I'm just saying...

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 12, 2006 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adam...
as usual, I agree with you.  I've tinkered with the thought of Mulder as well (as I now expect him to bounce back--didn't before due to my faith in Billy Beane--ie why would he trade him?) but now think it's too much risk for the probable cost.

I don't want to touch Feliz either.  He will simply return us to JJ free-swinging ways AND will cost too much.  Wolf is my option A of realistic FA pitcher signings, and Armas is option B.  Love both choices.

by djskilbr on Oct 13, 2006 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another possibale 3b
It's too bad that TR likes punto at 3b and thinks the offence is good enough because a guy who could be a Good 3b is going to be posted this year. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/10/akinori_iwamura.html#comments

He hit 311/.388/.543  this year and if the the Twins had a AAA player do that I hope he'd be starting next year. that being said Japanese baseball is porbably AAAA so he could hit .285/.345/.490 next year which would put him somewhere in between Cuddyer and Hunter's production and that wouldn't be bad considering the possiblity of Punto going back to .250/.320/.380.

I'm just guesses here but the posting fee would be about 5-6 mil to win the rights and then about a 3-4 year contract for 4 mil a year might work out so for lets say  4 year the cost would be about 20 mil (some think it will be more like 3 years 24 mil which would put him out of our price range.) which works out to 5 mil a year and He's 27 in the prime of his career. I don't know about his defense but we could always bring in Punto as a late inning defensive replacement we that is a issue.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 17, 2006 4:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

interesting...
very interesting indeed.  i'd be for it.

by djskilbr on Oct 17, 2006 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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