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Secret Sauce

In a recent book by the writers/editors of Baseball Prospectus, an examination was made regarding what regular season skills/tendencies Major League teams have that correlate to success in the postseason.  In other words, what do teams do well in the first 162 games that have a strong correlation to winning in October?

The 3 strongest correlations they could find were a great closer, a pitching staff with a high strikeout rate, and great team defense.  The Baseball Prospectus website tracks each team's rank in these categories, and then lists each team in order of their total ranking in these 3 categories.  Here are how the playoff teams rank:

Twins - 2nd in baseball (Blue Jays are #1)
Mets - 4th
Detroit - 7th
Yankees - 10th
San Diego - 11th
Oakland - 13th
Dodgers - 17th
St. Louis - 23rd

Now, keep in mind that they use an entire seasons worth of data, so late season roster changes are not accounted for (i.e. Pedro's K rate counts for the Mets, Castro and Batista's defense counts for the Twins, as does Liriano's K rate).  I would also point out that the Baseball Prospectus defensive metric - fielding runs above average - is highly suspect (as compared to play-by-play defensive data).  That being said, I think we can all agree that if a great closer, high strikeout rates, and good team defense means a higher chance of success in October, the Twins are certainly well positioned.

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