WWYD: J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 9, 2006 12:27 PM EDT Comment 54 comments

As has been discussed here a couple of times Durbin is out of options this year and cannot return to AAA for another season. JD is a power arm that was once a top prospect that has fallen off considerably much like Boof Bonser had with the Giants.

The Twins will have quite a Decision to make this spring on what to do with him. He posted a 2.33 era this year although the walks that have plagued JD during his whole career were still there as he walked 50 in 89 innings. JD seemed to in line for a call up with all the ineffectiveness and injuries in the Twins rotation but he suffered an injury of his own and was out for the season. So now lies the question what would you do with JD Durbin?

My course of action would be to stick him in the number 5 spot in the rotation and see if he can get major league hitters out give him about 8-9 starts and see if he gets it done. This provides time to see how Slowey and Perkins are progressing and depending on what happens with Sliva, Baker could also get some extra time to build confidence in AAA and learn how to pitch.

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Instead of Eyre?

I think he projects as a middle reliever. If he's out of options, he needs to stay with the big club. But to reduce the risk to him and to the team, I would stick him in the bullpen, at least until he's ready to start. Eyre still has options, so he can be a jack in the hole.

I agree on Baker. The problem is, he doesn't seem very coachable. And if Andy can't coach him, I wonder if he might be better of with a fresh start for another organization. I still think he has value on the trade market, but it is not very high at present. "Hello, Wayne, yeah, we'll send Castillo and Baker your way for Encarnacion."

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 9, 2006 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Middle relief or trade options...

Durbin might have more perceived value on the trade market than he has real value on the baseball field.

I'm not a fan of pitchers coming off of labrum surgery, and I highly doubt Durbin would make an effective major league starter. Given his shiny ERA this year and the general belief that he has good stuff, though, you might be able to get someone to believe he could be.

If you put Durbin in the bullpen, he can give all-out effort on every pitch, and that helps a lot of guys to be more effective pitchers. Eyre wasn't anything special this year, so I wouldn't have much trouble sticking him in Eyre's spot, hoping he goes on a nice run and then maybe trading him at the deadline or something. The one thing this team is deep in is bullpen arms, and it's usually a good idea to trade from an area of strength to help patch up areas of weakness.

by ubelmann on Oct 9, 2006 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The labrum

I was more worried about the labrum before last year, even though it was just a quick clean-up scope and he was back on the mound six weeks afterward. But last year he really pitched, and showed a lot of people he deserved a shot. If it wasn't for the odd nerve problem, he would have been called up when Garza was.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 9, 2006 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ever since...

...the labrum deal, though, his walk rates have been out of control. Usually, that doesn't fly in the majors. Hitters will sit on the poor pitches, and then eventually you'll have to throw a strike and they'll be all over it.

Now some guys, Bonser for instance, are sometimes able to improve their walk rate as they move to the majors. (Well, at least Bonser has so far.) What's made Bonser successful, though, is that he has enough movement on his pitches and a good enough assortment that when hitters are swinging at strikes, they're having difficulty making good contact. With Bonser, it seems more like the Twins just had to convince him to start throwing more strikes and trusting his stuff.

Other guys, like Garza, can get by with a lower walk rate in the minors than the majors because they are able to rely more on their fastball in the minors, and though Garza has good movement on his breaking stuff, he has trouble throwing it for strikes consistently. So, major league hitters just wait around for his hittable fastball and in the meantime, Garza's walk rate goes up as he misses with his breaking balls.

If Durbin has enough movement on his pitches, then it's possible you could see him improve his walk rate ala Bonser, as long as you can get him to throw them for strikes, but even Bonser's walk rate was never as high as Durbin's is now. Of course, as we saw with Garza, that's a lot easier said than done.

Anyway, the injury history at least makes me wary of counting on him to throw a lot of innings, so middle relief makes more sense just from that standpoint. Of course, if someone else is willing to take the risk that his arm can stand up and his stuff is good enough, then maybe you could get something with (at least) more short-term value for him.

I'm thinking somewhere along the lines of the Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert deal that the Mariners and Giants did last year. Foppert is a similar prospect to Durbin in that he has injury issues, a high strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a low home run rate. Now, I wouldn't want Randy Winn specifically, but he's been about a five-win player the last couple of years, which I think is more than Durbin can give us, and there's a lot of risk with Durbin thanks to his injury history.

by ubelmann on Oct 9, 2006 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Walk rate

Ya know, I went over to the Baseball Cube because I was sure his walk rate went down last year and it was actually up from 2005. So all the stories about him taking a litle off the fastball to throw more strikes seem a touch exaggerated.

Well, if he can pitch in spring training and he's out of options, we might have no choice but to give him a shot at a bullpen job in the hopes that Andy can correct a mechanical flaw and get him to throw more strikes. It's now or never for the Real Deal.

And did you know that his initials are actually J.A. Durbin. I wonder where the J.D. came from? I hope it wasn't like me in high school. I got the J.D. nickname from a bottle of bourbon.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 9, 2006 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I'm not strictly opposed to him getting a shot in the bullpen, but right now, he would seem to project as something of a right-handed J.C. Romero (great stuff, can't throw strikes), and a lot of folks didn't really enjoy Romero's last stint with the team. Like you say, working with Anderson could help, so it's probably worth a shot if you don't trade him.

But, like Bowyer last year, I think that Durbin might be able to get us something useful in a trade, so I think that's something to keep in mind.

by ubelmann on Oct 9, 2006 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Durbin

I expect there to be a lot of competition for that last bullpen spot amoung the youn guys who don't make 5th starter, since that spot is automatically first in line when someone goes down.

We'll just have to see what Durbin can do in spring training. He's gonna' have to prove he can translate that talent into success. He he does, yeah, we can see what he can do.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 9, 2006 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Durbin

If he can't pitch in spring training, which is a real possibility, he might pull a Dave Gassner and wallow on the DL and a long recovery time in the minors, in whcih he will be added to the team later in the year or cut loose.

That sixth bullpen spot can be a catch-all...you get a shot and make it or blow it. There's always a need for a lesser talent to hang in the majors and MAYBE show some potential...deep-sixed is some hotshot shines in the minors, but also allows someone to linger if the DL takes one of the other relievers out of the picture.

Like the 14th man on the player roster...you need to possibly contribute, but probably won't become a major elage veteran.

by twintown on Oct 9, 2006 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We're in "stockpile arms" mode

We have one starter we can count on - Santana.

After that, it's

"Will he be healthy?" (Cisco)

"Will he repeat his end of the year performance?" (Boof)

"Aren't you supposed to be in AAA this year?" (Garza & Perkins)

"Who are you, and why did you suck so badly after pitching well in 2005?" (Baker & Silva)

and

"Can we really count on guys wearing numbers higher that 60?" (everyone else)

Right now, we pretty much can't rule anyone out - so Durbin gets a look (along with the rest of the cast of thousands).

by BD57 on Oct 10, 2006 11:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AAA

I wouldn't say Garza is supposed to be in AAA...

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 10, 2006 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO, the comment is fair for Garza

He has a world of talent.

He also got twice the look Cisco got in 2004: 9 starts to 4, 50 innings to 23.

ERA's were similar: 5.76 vs. 5.70.

It's easier to 'blame' a high ERA over 23 innings on a bad outing, etc. When you pitch 50 innings - a quarter of a season, when you consider what's considered "inning eater" these days - it's harder to say your ERA's paying for one bad outing.

Matt had two "quality" starts out of 9 starts.

As a starter, he got to the 6th inning twice (though he got to 5 & 2/3 three other times).

He has a world of promise, but we're talking about a spot in the rotation of a defending Division Champion hoping to do better.

Cisco made the big club in 2006, but not as a starter - that came eventually.

I can't see Garza as more than that sitting here today.

Maybe that'll change in Spring - I'm just talking about "What can we COUNT on today?"

by BD57 on Oct 11, 2006 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Garza Fair......

Not many make the jump to the big leagues in their first year.

Garza was a good draft pick, but not the best. The Twins chose him high because they could sign him.

The question is, how much "tuition" (I like it, someone said it further down this thread) can we spend on the guy on the big league field.

by twintown on Oct 11, 2006 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Garza

wasn't a Signablity pick he was projected to go in the late first round and that's where he went. The money he signed for was right about average for that pick.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 11, 2006 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His ERA the last month says it for you

I wouldn't say Garza is supposed to be in AAA...

by TT on Oct 11, 2006 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Do we really have to reiterate this? Go look at how remarkably compareable Verlander's numbers where last year, and tak a look at Liriano's while your at it, and tell me you aren't excited about a pitcher desscribed as very simmilar to Verlander.

We've talked about this before...

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 11, 2006 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are we talking about the Garza

we saw in the White Sox series at the end of the year? The one who pitched himself out of the playoff rotation? The Garza who looked completely lost? The Garza with the straight fastball?

I think he has a lot to work on...

by wcooley on Oct 11, 2006 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reminder

I think he has a lot to work on...

Many of us made the same comment relative to Cisco at the end of last year. I wouldn't place too much stock in one bad start. It's too bad his bad start occured as the last one. (Just as it's too bad Bartlett struggled in the field in the playoffs.) But take his whole year into account. When you do, you have to admit that his upside is huge, sraight fastball or no.

When you consider that he started the year in A ball and wore four uniforms during the year, I'm not surprised he struggled with consistency in a pennant race in the majors. He's the kind of kid who will learn from that and be more consistent next year.

Assuming the first four are Santana, Outside Veteran, Cisco, and Boof, I'm penciling Garza in for the fifth spot. But he will need to beat out Baker, Perkins, Slowey, and Durbin in spring training. To me, he's clearly the best option of those five. He has three major league pitches. I can't say the same for the other four.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 11, 2006 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You say

"he has three major league pitches." Some might differ on this: TK said he was not ready, said he relies too much on his fastball. Another major league scout offered this take on Garza: "I would say the fastball is definitely a plus pitch with the exception of [its lack of movement]. His slider is average, his curveball is average and his changeup is solid-average. ... I would project him more toward the middle of the rotation [than the top], but you never know." Hawk and DJ stated Garza is going to have to locate to be successful because of his straight fastball and slow curveball.

I'm still high on Garza, but I'm not sure he will be ready for next year. Ryan does not seem to think so either.

And before anyone says "TK hates young talent"...please, give me a break.

by wcooley on Oct 11, 2006 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not exactly

TK made those comments after seeing him pitch in AAA. Garza threw around 60 percent fastballs in the majors this year. That's normal.

I saw that scout's report and I disagree with it. I think his curve and slider are solid-average major league pitches if he can get them over. Most of his strikeouts came on mixing the curve and slider into his pitch selection.

In this market, the fifth spot is typically reserved for a developing guy. If TR signs Silva back and finds the money for a veteran starter, I'd be fine with Garza starting the year in AAA. But if there's only enough money for one additional veteran, Garza is my pick for the fifth spot.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 11, 2006 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The report

I was leaning towards ignoring that report too, until I SAW Garza pitch for the 2nd time on TV. The first time was his debut against the Jays, and I chalked that start up to nerves. But the start against the Sox left me scratching my head wondering what all the fuss was about.

He reminded me of.....wait for it.....wait for it....

LaTroy Hawkins. Remember when he came up as a highly touted 20-game winner in the minors? That's what I thought of when I saw Garza. I dearly hope I am wrong.

by wcooley on Oct 11, 2006 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Garza

This is what spring training is for. As I said, he is VERY comparable to Justin Verlander, thouhg probably with slightly worse stuff. Don't be surprised to see him take off next year...

Also, is isn't too surprising to see him fade a bit at the end last year as he topped his career high in IP last year and was likely tiring by the end.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 11, 2006 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

I agree with this. Garza is the least of our worries. I think him and Kubel will be the talk of Minnesota next year, much like Cisco/Mauer/Morneau were this year.

by djskilbr on Oct 11, 2006 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say it was "one bad start"

As noted above, he had two "quality starts" out of nine and was typically out of the game before the 5th inning ended (44.1 innings in 9 starts).

That's not a guy who should have his name written in the starting rotation in ink.

I'm not saying he "can't" do it, or even that he "won't" do it.

I'm just saying that, as of right now, assuming he "will" do it in 2007 is based on hope, not experience.

by BD57 on Oct 11, 2006 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of the seven "non-quality starts"

He pitched into the sixth inning three times, leaving twice with one out to get. So, though he did not pitch through the sixth often, he pitched into the sixth. Only a quick hook by Gardy prevented him from having five of nine quality starts. That's still not great, but it's not all that bad.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 11, 2006 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

I've even noted that he got into the 6th three other times, so he got into the 6th 5 out of 9 starts.

I'm not saying he stinks or that he's not going to make it.

I AM saying [A] we wouldn't consider his performance in 2006 replicated over the full season of 2007 acceptable for a starter on our team; [B] we don't have a "performance" basis - YET - for assuming he's going to be better in 2007; and [C] he might benefit from getting 10-20 starts in AAA - especially if he doesn't make the starting rotation with the Twins out of spring training.

by BD57 on Oct 11, 2006 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

10-20?

That's way to many. That's up to two thirds of the season! I'd say 5-8 more tops.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 11, 2006 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right about 20 ...

I was still thinking "4 man rotation".

Shows you what my "era" of baseball is.

10 would be plus or minus to the All Star Break.

IF we're not having to bring him up for "need" - someone hurt or stinking it up - I think 10 would be a good number.

Force him to throw the other pitches; don't let him ride the fastball; force him to 'pitch', not 'throw'.

Ten starts (if he throws 100 pitches per - and there's no guarantee of that) would mean facing 100 - 200 hitters. Who's to say he wouldn't benefit from that?

Garza blew through the organization by blowing hitters away. He spent so little time at each level that (I suspect) few teams saw him twice.

Adjusting to the hitters adjustments to you is part of pitching - a part I suspect Matt hasn't had to explore much to date.

Matt has a big arm & lots of potential. I'd rather he start in Rochester than be the long man in Minneapolis.

by BD57 on Oct 11, 2006 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All-Star

The all-star break? I don't think so. That is probably way too long.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 11, 2006 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rick Anderson...

that's all that needs to be said.

I want him as the longman (if we sign a vet) for the first 3 weeks or so since we will barely need a 5th starter for that stretch. And that is only IF Garza is not a better option than Boof to start the year, which I'm not so sure of.

by djskilbr on Oct 12, 2006 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, the Francisco question.....

Is it better to start a potential starter out of the bullpen in the big leagues, or give him x-amount of starts in the minors and have a real bullpen guy in the bullpen.

Liriano kinda got the bullpen call because he became the token lefty when the Twins decided they needed to look a little more at Reyes, but wanted to do it at Rochester rather than Minnesota.

by twintown on Oct 12, 2006 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One Again the Expert

I saw that scout's report and I disagree with it.

You are entitled to an opinion, but is there any reason to think you have the ability to evaluate pitching prospects? The reality is that Garza had a great year - he moved all the way from A ball to the major leagues and almost made the playoff roster. But his step to the major leagues wasn't taken because he was ready but because the Twins were desperate. And, when given the chance, he didn't really show he was ready to take a spot even at the end of a major league rotation. H

e almost certainly belonged at AAA at the end of this season. He may be ready to win a spot in the rotation next spring. But he may also take a step back, much as Baker did.

by TT on Oct 11, 2006 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And you're qualified....

to take the word of one completely anonymous scout over the obvious evaluations of the best scouting team in major league baseball (the Twins)? Sorry, I think Garza's going to be just fine.

by djskilbr on Oct 11, 2006 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One scout

If you recall, that one scout was in the Baltimore newspaper, indicating the scouts opinion was likely a first impression from minimal exposure. Furthermore, we have heard from several scouts and multiple minor league experts that Garza is he real deal, so I'll take the many over the one.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 11, 2006 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Experts speak.....

Well, both Baker and Garza have all winter to figure out what they need to do/change to be a viable candidate for the major leagues come spring.

They both have a golden opportunity to make the team, or start the season at AAA again.

I think Garza will be the more viable worker bee. But both need continued guidance to NOT fall into bad habits.

There are times...few...that you can just rear back and throw a ball past a batter in a game (Robertson did it in Game 1 against Oakland). Otherwise, you have to have a pitch plan, and also be agressive to a degree.

by twintown on Oct 11, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else have this thought?...

Even though Radke's most likely retiring, I've love to see him come to spring training and help mentor Garza a little bit as an advisor/extra scout. They seem to have a good relationship there, and Radke IMO could really teach him a few more things to get him right this spring.

by djskilbr on Oct 11, 2006 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll say it again

I am not an expert, just an interested observer. For some reason you think that every time I write something, I'm taking the expert's point of view. I wonder why you think that. Do you have some kind of inferiority complex or something?

You can go ahead and play skeptic or devil's advocate all you want. I won't stop stating my opinion and trying to justify it with the best evidence available to me. If that evidence is not good enough for you, too bad. Feel free to disagree. But don't make it personal. If you do, I'll just ignore it.

I just happen to disagree with that scout. Garza has a sharp curve and a hard slider that are very effective when he controls them. He hasn't controlled them consistently. When he did, he was very effective. When he did not, he got knocked out early. That's his next step, IMHO.

Whether that step is in AAA or the majors is up to TR. Personally, I would prefer Garza to Silva at this time, especially if keeping Silva means you need to sign a lesser veteran starter to replace Radke, with $4 million less to work with. And I would not advocate having both Silva and Garza in the rotation to start next year unless (God forbid) Csco needs TJ surgery. If so, the Twins have bigger problems than any of us want to face.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 11, 2006 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Different scouts

Different opinions I saw a Quote form one scout earlier this year that said his slider was a plus pitch curveball average maybe a little above and fastball a plus. Then later about 3-4 weeks later I saw a scout quoted as saying his Curveball was a Plus pitch with his fastball as plus pitches the others being average. It's just an opinions that's what scouts give its not law and it can change and not all think the same thing.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 11, 2006 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

BA said Garza has the best curveball in the organization. I don't necessarily agree with that either (Boof's got a good one). But I'm closer to BA than that one scout, who saw him pitch once when he didn't show good control of it or whatever.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 11, 2006 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with keeping Garza in AAA...

...is that he has very little to learn there. We found out (as relayed to us by TK and also as TR told us) that in the minors, Garza can be successful by just blowing his fastball past hitters. When you're hanging out with 24 other guys that want to win ballgames when you're on the mound, it's tough to go away from the strategy that works.

Garza needs to work on his control, but I think that to do so, he needs to be forced, in-game, to mix his pitches and throw strikes. He's already learned that he has to do this in the majors. Garza probably needs to be facing major league hitters to work on his biggest problems. That said, he didn't spend all that much time in AAA, so I wouldn't have a huge problem with him starting the year in Rochester. He's not as advanced as Liriano was at the beginning of the year (but then very few pitchers have done what Liriano did this year, so that seems like an unfairly high standard.)

It's sort of similar with Baker. He's learned all he's ever going to learn in the minors. Maybe putting him in long relief and transitioning him to the rotation when someone gets hurt/is ineffective would be a good idea, but from where I sit, Baker needs to face major league hitters to figure out how to get better.

by ubelmann on Oct 11, 2006 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Your probably right

But if Liriano is healthy the Twins will go into next year as the favorite to go to the World Series. When you're in that position, with a small window before this talent cycles out, can you afford to give starts to Scott Baker and Matt Garza and watch them scuffle as they learn on the job?

by wcooley on Oct 11, 2006 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is partially...

...why I said that I wouldn't have a big problem with Garza starting the year in AAA. He hasn't spent much time there, anyway.

This is also why I suggested that a long relief role might be best for breaking Baker into the majors. You'd be putting him in mostly low leverage situations as a long reliever, and if he adapts well, then you can shift him to the rotation. If not, then we still might have an option on him (I'm not sure) so you could send him back down to AAA to see if maybe he can fix things there. It's possible he could learn what he needs to learn by pitching in AAA, but I find it unlikely.

by ubelmann on Oct 11, 2006 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baker Flourish....

Of course, if Baker does do better than just good come spring training, he could be trade bait.

What so many of us don't know, the talks that go on behind the closed doors of baseball, is that not only does management discuss stats and stuff, but also THE PLAYER. Do we want him in the organization. Will he be a team sorta guy. Will he prosper or go backward. How much time and energy do we put into him.

More often than not more than necessary happens and the player really bombs and you get nothing for your time and trouble.

Occasionally, you deal a real player for a real player and both sides are happy.

by twintown on Oct 11, 2006 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Learning in the minors

He's learned all he's ever going to learn in the minors.

I'm not sure I buy this. Players struggle at the major league level because they can't execute. They can practice executing in the minors regardless of who they are pitching against.

Baker can learn to keep the ball down in the zone, even if minor league hitters don't hit it very often when he gets it up. Pitchers often know when they got away with a bad pitch. He doesn't need to watch the ball go over the fence to figure it out.

Likwise Garza can work on his location in the minors.

Bonser pitched badly at the start of the year, went to the minors and came back a much better pitcher. Baker started the year badly, went to the minors and came back with the same results as before.

Garza did not do very well overall once he hit the major leagues. He did show flashes, but then so did Baker last year and Kyle Lohse over several years. Given how far Garza came last year, it would not be surprising if he takes a season to regroup and make the next step of establishing himself as a major league starter.

Obviously different scouts see pitchers at different times and see different things. That's why they scout players more than once and get more than one opinion. But if you are going to disagree with a scouting report, you ought to have some contrary evidence that it is off other than your personal opinion. Unless you are a scout yourself.

by TT on Oct 11, 2006 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is not the DTFC

But if you are going to disagree with a scouting report, you ought to have some contrary evidence that it is off other than your personal opinion.

Do you set the rules of debate here? I agree that the ideal is to have alternative evidence, but absent stats or access to scouts, the best we can do is our two eyes. Whether Garza's curveball is sharp enough to consistently get major leauge hitters out, assuming he gains more control of it, is not a numerical question. And, unlike the NFL, scouting is a trade secret in the MLB, so it is not public information.

I will not refrain from writing personal observations just because you think it's not appropriate for someone who isn't a professional scout to post observations here.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Oct 11, 2006 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're going to play this way...

But if you are going to disagree with a scouting report, you ought to have some contrary evidence that it is off other than your personal opinion. Unless you are a scout yourself.

If you're going to play this way, please don't bother responding to any of my comments.

I am a fan of baseball. I watch baseball games. I have opinions. If you expect me to keep my mouth shut because I'm not employed by a major league baseball team as a scout, then you're asking me to give up one of the things that I most enjoy about following baseball.

I stated my opinions here. I didn't tell you what to think or that I'm an expert or that I'm always right. In fact, I do get things wrong and I'm not an expert. But sometimes I get things right, and I enjoy discussing baseball with basically everyone around here who doesn't tell me what I'm allowed to talk about and what I'm not allowed to talk about.

You're certainly free to disagree with my opinions, but don't tell me what I can and can't comment on.

Thank you.

by ubelmann on Oct 11, 2006 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weighing Opinions

You're certainly free to disagree with my opinions, but don't tell me what I can and can't comment on.

You are obviously free to comment on whatever you want, as am I. But if someone wants to set their opinion up as evidence against that of a professional scout, I am going to feel free to point out their personal opinion doesn't carry any weight. At least not with me and it shouldn't with anyone else either.

We are all fans, we all have opinions and we are all wrong some of the time. When what we think we see disagrees with what the professionals say the first question ought to be "what's wrong with my eyesight". And frankly, unless that is your reaction, chances are your opinions are never going to be worth much. Because you can't learn if you don't think anyone has anything to teach you.

by TT on Oct 11, 2006 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you make a single comment...

...without being a dickhead?

Because you can't learn if you don't think anyone has anything to teach you.

Thanks, I'm forever indebted to you. I ALWAYS THOUGHT THAT NO ONE HAD ANYTHING TO TEACH ME!! WHAT A FREAKING REVELATION!!!

by ubelmann on Oct 12, 2006 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you?

Can you make a single comment...

...without being a dickhead?

That was really the comment I wanted to make. Lets stick to discussing the Twins and baseball.

by TT on Oct 12, 2006 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question is - can the Twins afford it?

If the Twins have five better starters at the end of Spring Training, then Garza ought to go to AAA.

The "nothing to learn there" part of the game can be dealt with pretty easily - call his pitches from the bench & don't let him shake them off. Make him throw his other pitches until he's proficient with them.

As for Baker, I don't know that he has "nothing to learn" down there - or even that he's going to learn with the big club. If we can believe the press reports (big 'if', granted) he kept the ball down in 2005, stopped doing it in 2006 - and didn't particularly think it was all that important (even as he was battered all over the place).

One would think consistently getting whacked on pitches up in the zone would do all the teaching that was required, but it didn't seem to take - either Baker's stubborn, he's stupid (doesn't realize he got clobbered because he didn't locate pitches) or he just can't keep the ball down anymore.

Thing is, at some point, we can't afford the tuition he charges for getting educated in the bigs.

by BD57 on Oct 11, 2006 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starting

Pitches do take sometimes a long time to devolop they are not all instant sucesses like liriano or Santana and liriano's debateable becuase he hasn't pitched 200innings in the majors yet. look at King felix he has a great curveball and good fastball and better 2 seam fastball and didn't have a great year he would the best pitching prospect in baseball if he was in the minors. look at chris carpenter's seasons with the Blue Jays. Players need time in the majors because pitching to a MLB caliber hitter is not the same as pitching to AAA players even if they are Lastings Milledge, delmon young, Billy Bulter or Alex Gordon. The thing Garza needs to work on is trusting his offspeed stuff he can do that in the majors he's going to have to do it sometime.
Like it or not we will need Garza next year when the season opens all the reports about his work ethic and additude have been steller I trust him to listen to his coaches more than I ever did with Loshe so I don't get the comparsion there they are not even close in that regard.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 11, 2006 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Garza......

Boys, boys, boys....and the Twins pitchers of the future are just that, boys.

Scott Baker has pitched 90, 120 and 180 innings the past three seasons before hitting 167 this year, due to some sitting about between starts. He seemed to show a helluva a lot more promise last season compared to this one. But considering he just turned 25, he deserves one more shot. He came out firing (like Lohse) in his six spring training appearances. But something happened.

Garza threw 177+ innings this season. Considering he only threw 75 last year in the system, and 108 in college ball in '05, plus a total of 130 over two previous seasons....well, the Twins may have been right to keep him off the post-season roster. He threw hard, alot, and jumped not just three levels but all the way to the majors. Consider that Kevin Slowey threw 148+ and Glen Perkins 121+. Garza needs to rest, relax, easy throw, work on OTHER pitches, and come to spring training strong and full of pep and verve.

Another guy, Pay Neshek, also appeared in 65 games last season and came in at 97 innings, higher than his '05 season where he was tired at the end and didn't wish to play winter ball, and more than twice the innings he threw any of his other three seasons.

Jason Bartlett also got 568 at bats and batted .306/.309 on the season, and jason Tyner hit the plate 534 times batting .329/.312. For whatever reason, I mention that.

And I, too, hope that Radke is at Ft. Myers to work with the young guys (as well as getting Bert on the field, too, for advice). Plus, Rick Anderson hasn't had his chance to sink his claws into Garza all that much.

by twintown on Oct 11, 2006 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i wish

carlos had done better this year and as a result all this pressure to bring the young guys along so fast was a non issue. let them season with the wings and if some one faulters bring one of them up that's looking the best. i think Garza moving up this fast might, as someone just said, need some more seasoning time in AAA. also having Brad work with these guys in spring and maybe during the year some if he stays in MN would be a great asset for us and Andy.

"hi everybody" Herb Carneal Hall of fame baseball announcer.

by firstatbat61 on Oct 11, 2006 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Garza

Maybe Garza could follow the Sisco path and get his final touches down in the bullpen?

At any rate, with all teh options available to us, I'm confident that we'll have players who can pitch well for us all though the rotation (we have so many young guys, one or two HAVE to step up) and I am also confident that in the near furture, Garza will be a very effective starter.

There you go.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 11, 2006 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs