Morneau MVP
This is gonna be a race to get the first post up... and damnit... I'm gonna win. Awhile back I posted a diary showing why Justin Morneau was the league's mvp. Today, I look like a genius.
Morneau won the league MVP over Derek The Douchebag Jeter by a point total of 320-306. It's interesting to note that while Morneau recieved three more first place votes than Jeter (15-12), he actually received less second place votes.
Fellow Twins Joe Mauer (6th) and Johan Santana (7th and got the only other first place vote) also garnered respectable vote totals.
What a great year for the Minnesota Twins! To be completely honest, if you told me at this time last year that Morneau was going to be MVP... I would have laughed for hours. Congratulations Justin on being the League's best and even more so for breaking the hearts of the gazillions of people who drop to their knees at the mention of the word Jeter. Hooray Twins.
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Funny
Honestly, I'm not sure if Jeter didn't really deserve it, but It's exciting that Morneau won it. It is a good recognition of all three of our stars accomplishments.
My God this team is top heavy though.
This is terrible
Morneau was the 3rd best player...ON THE TWINS. There is just no way he's MVP. This is like George Bell winning in 1987, or Andre Dawson the same year.
Actually, this year is similar to 87, where two guys who were absolutely not good choices won the awards.
The BBWAA just absolutely blew it. Complete head scratcher. Jeter actually deserved the award; him or Mauer. How they came up with Morneau just baffles me.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2006 2:37 PM EST reply actions
This isn't terrible!
On another note I want to know the last team that featured a batting title, a Cy Young winner and an MVP (not to mention a guy who finished 3rd in the ROY category). All of which were different players. Anyone have a record book?
by caseintheface on Nov 21, 2006 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Morneau
"Morneau won because he was the difference maker on the team and in the league."
So you are saying if Mauer had hit .300 the Twins would still have won the division? Remember, they only won by 1 game. What specifically makes Morneau the difference maker and not Mauer or Santana?
And you are saying Santana doesn't deserve it because he... is always really really good?
Yes, Morneau had a great season, especially considering where he was last year (or even in June). But I think it may be a stretch to call him the 'difference maker'
by Diggity Dino on Nov 21, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Book?
If only there was some collection of baseball statistics accessible through a global network of computers...
Heh.
The last time it happened in all of baseball was 1991, when Terry Pendleton won the batting title and MVP in the NL, while Tom Glavine won the Cy Young. We know what happened to them in the post-season.
(In fairness, it nearly happened again in 2005 with Chris Carpenter winning the NL Cy and Albert Pujols winning the MVP and coming five points of batting average short of winning the batting title.)
The last time it happened in the AL was in 1986, when Roger Clemens won both the MVP and Cy Young, while Wade Boggs won the batting title.
It's happened that two people were involved in winning the three awards a number of times prior to that as well (Dick Groat and Vern Law in 1960, Carl Yazstrzemski and Jim Lonborg in 1967, Robin Yount and Pete Vuckovich in 1982), but the last time it happened with three different players was with the 1962 Dodgers - Tommy Davis won the batting title (with a .346 average), Maury Wills won the MVP, and some guy named Don Drysdale won the Cy Young.
(By the way, 1962 is also the only other time it's happened that three different players won the three 'awards'; there was no Cy Young award prior to 1956.)
Dear caseintheface:
Let's ask the question this way: would the Twins have been better off with an average starting pitcher rather than Johan, an average starting catcher (.271/.332/.417) rather than Mauer, or an average starting first baseman (.280/.352/.467) rather than Morneau?
I'm
Things aren't gonna' change anytime soon. If Johan goes down for anything this year. ANYTHING. The Twins go down with him.
Difference maker?
Count me in among those who find this an unpersuasive argument. After all, Nick Punto hit .290/725 this year, after a career prior to that point of about .240/640. By the 'difference maker' criteria, you could argue that Punto was the league MVP.
Come now...
by caseintheface on Nov 21, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
terrible? embarrassing???
For the pressies (who are superficial), it's pretty easy to argue Morneau over Mauer.
First: Morneau turning his season around coincided with the Twins turning their season around.
Second: Morneau got hot and pretty much stayed that way to the end. Mauer wasn't as consistent (scorching hot - more than Morneau - early, then he dropped off some).
Third: The curse of the Twins was (is?) that it takes three hits to score a run. While Mauer has more power than the "curse" implies, Justin is one of the few guys in the lineup every day who gets runs in with one swing fairly consistently.
You can make some other arguments that aren't as clear cut (Morneau hitting behind Cuddyer helped Cuddyer, pitchers have their MVP award - it's called "Cy Young", etc.), but I think Justin's deserving.
I mean, it's like some collective madness
A little credit for closing strong and making the playoffs? I'm not sure that should matter, but OK, bump him up. But from a couple of down ballot mentions to actually winning the freaking award?
What a disaster.
Just no understanding of positional value at all. For some reason a chunk of the media latched on to Morneau, and madness ensued. And Mauer not getting any 1st or 2nd place votes. Just nuts.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2006 2:48 PM EST reply actions
Easy Now...
1.) The award isn't titled "Best Offensive Numbers".
Paul Konerko had no business being at the top of the list, I'm just fine with 22nd. They call the award Most Valuable because it's just that, which player is the Most Valuable. Sure Konerko is solid, but Chicago didn't make the playoffs because of Konerko. So along this theme... why would you say Mauer had a better season??? Yes, he hit 26 points better over the season, but how bout the chunk of time when the Twins were fighting back into the race. From June 8th on Morneau led the world with a .362 avg. The point is NOBODY (aside from maybe Howard of the Phillies) was more important to his team than Morneau. Can you imagine what the Twins offensive would have been like without him? Replace Morneau's numbers with say Tiffees and then knock off a large chunk of Cuddyers numbers due to the ZERO protection he'd have in the lineup. That's bad... scary bad. Morneau carried the DIVISION CHAMPS for 3 months... who else can say that? Jeter??? Dream on... that lineup could stick me in the order and score more runs than the Twins.
2.) Morneau's stats are better than Jeter's and Mauer's. This is what really pisses me off... why are people so hung up on Jeter??? What did he do that was so great? He hit a whopping .23 points better than Morneau and stole an extra 20some bags. Ok... so there is a little difference there, but now let's figure in the 24 more homers Morneau had or the 33 more RBI's he had... and it swings the other way a bit. And please save the argument that Jeter hits leadoff and that's why he didn't drive in as many. That's crap... Posada and Cano were on base more than enough for Jeter to have RBI opportunities.
3.) If you're gonna complain about someone getting robbed, you should be pining for Frank Thomas. For 500,000 that man was Hands down the best production for price in the league. And in that lineup he was even more valuable.
In summary... for all "Jeter should have one" lobbyists try getting off your knees and taking a look at the numbers and quit listening to what the Baseball Tonite people have to say. I'm assuming you're old enough to think for yourself, try it.
Position
That being said, I think the Twins, as a team (aka, as J-Mo, Mauer, and Santana) sexerved to get this award from one of them to honor all of them.
It's just nice to see the flaws in baseball's system to work in the Twins favor and against the Yankees for once.
sexerved
Your ever-present typos are starting to turn into freudian slips!
I'm not sure what "sexerved" means and not sure that I want to...
by adam on Nov 21, 2006 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Meh
at any rate, yes, obviously that should be deserved...
typos
I have yet to download Firefox 2. It has a spell-check or something? I'll have to check it out.
by adam on Nov 21, 2006 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Speelchekr
No, seriously though, it kicks ass...
Dear Justin,
During the pre-season I ranted on a post on Twinkietown that you weren't smart enough to make the adjustment to fix your hitting woes. I called you something to the effect of an oaf. I criticized you for never looking like you wanted to be there and being blissfully unaware that what your game was not cutting it at this level.
I became more aware of the prospects behind you thinking that after this season the Twins would start looking elsewhere at 1B. Members of Twinkietown got on my case, and I realized I got carried away, but the attitude remained.
For the first two months of the season you proved me right. You continued to be an easy out for pitchers. All they had to do was throw the ball on the outer half of the plate. You would consequently flyout, strikeout, or get behind in the count.
Then Gardy said something that flicked a lightbulb and you proved me wrong. Pitches on the outer-half began to get knocked into left field Mauer-style. Runs began to be knocked in. Homers began to be hit. You hit .362 after June 8 and finished the year with 130 RBI. You started smiling on the field. The best part was that the Twins followed your lead. The team got hot when you took off. And they didn't look back. That is the truest meaning of an MVP, and that's why you won the award, even if Mauer and Santana were more consistently valuable to the Twins.
For all of this, I'm sorry that I insulted your intelligence and questioned your attitude. You winning the award may have been a bit on the fashionable side, and maybe Derek Jeter deserved it more than you did. But this reminder eases the disappointment of the playoffs this year. It's a reminder that 2006 featured the Twins as the home of the Cy Young, the Batting Champ, and now the MVP. A reminder that 3 disappointing games shouldn't wipe out the fun of 96 great games.
by TheMattWilke on Nov 21, 2006 3:02 PM EST reply actions
Excellent post
Congrats
Man let's celebrate
For what it's worth, I think VORP is a bad way to measure MVP. By VORP Jeter wins, Mauer is second, and Morneau is 10th. I take this to be an indicator that you dont use VORP to decide the MVP award. It doesn't measure defense and it doesn't measure most valuable and it might not even measure best. For example, VORP seems to seriously undervalue the home run. And it does not take into account strikeouts. If the three metrics used to evaluate pitchers are home runs, strikeouts and walks, why is it that only one of them is really captured adequately in VORP (walks)? The assymetry betweeen the way pitchers and hitters are evaluated is striking.
Vorp
It demonstrates how many runs a player provided for his team over what any other team might have otherwise. I'd say that's a pretty good measure of offensive value.
Oh, and Jeter wouldn't be first. Santana was just a fraction ahead of him...
Missing something in your VORP analysis
If the three metrics used to evaluate pitchers are home runs, strikeouts and walks, why is it that only one of them is really captured adequately in VORP (walks)?
Home runs are factored into VORP (it may use total bases, actually, but that still makes home runs valuable); again, it just appears otherwise in this case because Morneau's VORP is harmed by being a first baseman. As for the value of strikeouts, they are generally more valuable for pitchers. For a hitter, except in a few situations (mostly runners in scoring position with less than two outs), a strikeout is basically just another out. For a pitcher, a strikeout is the safest way to retire a batter, as it completely removes from the equation all the crazy things that can happen when a ball is put into play. I could see modifying VORP (and similar all-in-one statistics like EqA) to add a small penalty for strikeouts, but weighing them more heavily for pitchers than hitters makes perfect sense to me.
For what it's worth, I think VORP is a bad way to measure MVP. By VORP Jeter wins, Mauer is second, and Morneau is 10th. I take this to be an indicator that you dont use VORP to decide the MVP award.
Do you mean "don't", or "shouldn't" in that last sentence? There appears to be a mild anti-sabermetric bias in the BBWAA (see last year's AL Cy Young results for further evidence), and I doubt that VORP is much of a factor in any voters' votes. I agree with you (in another post in this thread) that I don't want the MVP to simply be awarded just to the player with the highest VORP, but I think it is a useful tool for comparison.
Then we agree
Yes, it's valuable when comparing players at a certain position. It's valuable to compare Morneau against Konerko, e.g. And it's especially valauable for GMs and talent evaluators who want to identify holes on their team. If a guy is below league average in VORP and there's little chance for improvement, that would be a position a GM should consider upgrading.
But there is no formula that I know of that gives the relative value of the positions. Yes catcher and shortstop are more valuable positions than first base, but how much more? If you knew that VORP multipier for each position, you could defiitively say whether or not Jeter's numbers are more valuable than Morneau's. Until you do, it's just guess work. To say that they are is just an admission that there are a lot more Juan Castros around than Carlos Penas. So what?
I happen to think catcher is more valuable than shortstop. Apparently I'm in the minority. But until there is a way of objectively deciding this issue, there's no winning the argument.
Even if you had that multiplier, you would also want to take into account close-and-late numbers and such, which would ultimately introduce bias against starting pitchers. So I'm not optimisitic that you can take all the MVP votes over the years and creat a formula for it.
Replacement Level
Yes, it's valuable when comparing players at a certain position. It's valuable to compare Morneau against Konerko, e.g. And it's especially valauable for GMs and talent evaluators who want to identify holes on their team. If a guy is below league average in VORP and there's little chance for improvement, that would be a position a GM should consider upgrading.
The whole point of VORP is to compare players at different positions - if one wanted to compare players at the same position, OPS would be roughly as good, and for advanced metrics, EqA would probably be better if you're just considering offense. VORP's attempt to account for positional differences is its main advantage.
But there is no formula that I know of that gives the relative value of the positions. Yes catcher and shortstop are more valuable positions than first base, but how much more? If you knew that VORP multipier for each position, you could defiitively say whether or not Jeter's numbers are more valuable than Morneau's.
According to an article I found from 2001, replacement level is defined as 70 points of OPS below the league average at the position, while Wikipedia says that it's usually defined as roughly 80% of the league average; I'm not sure which the current calculations use, but I'd guess they're pretty similar. I'm not positive where to find the data for the league positional average, but I'm sure it's fairly easily available once one knows where to look. Either way, the "VORP multiplier" is based on the league average results for the position. Whether the definition of replacement level is appropriate is of course open to debate.
I'm not optimisitic that you can take all the MVP votes over the years and creat a formula for it.
I don't think this would be possible, especially since MVP voters usually heavily weigh team performance (which is why A-Rod took so long to win one), and there's always the "popularity contest" aspect - Ted Williams twice failed to win the MVP despite winning the triple crown.
Not sure about this
It seems to me the surest way to make an out if you're either a hitter or a pitcher is by strikeout. If you are a contact pitcher, your success depends on your fielders' making plays. If you're a contact hitter, your success depends on the other teams' fielders not making plays.
There are lots of ways in which a contact out is better than a strikeout for a hitter and worse for a pitcher. They move runners along, they force the defense to make plays. And in the extreme case, you can never score on a strikeout except by wild pitch. So not all outs are created equal, and strikeouts are good for pitchers and bad for hitters in roughly the same magnitude. But Sabermetrics treats strikeouts indifferently for hitters and makes them perhaps THE key stat for pitchers.
The reason for this is that different people developed diferent metrics for hitters as pitchers. Voros McCracken developed defense-independent pitching stats, but never developed defense-independent hitting stats. Bill James developed most of the hitting stats and never considered whether two hitters that have very similar statistics except for strikeouts might actually vary in quality.
Have you ever considered that Joe Mauer had one of the unluckiest years in the league: He hit the ball hard almost every time up and he only hit safely 35% of the time. Jayson Tyner hit the ball hard only half the time and still hit safely 30 % of the time. Why? Because defenses made plays against Mauer (better advanced scouting, Mauer the marked man, etc.) that they did not make against Tyner. If someone developed a defense-independent hitting stat, Mauer would be twice as good as Tyner. Such a stat would severely penalize hitters for strikeouts.
I don't know what this means for the present discussion, except that VORP is not a defense-independent hitting stat, and, in fact does not take situational hitting into account at all. James doens't think situational hitting makes a difference. I'm not convinced by his arguments. When someone argues from assumptions and proves something in direct conflict with observed reality (such as productive outs), my first response is to question his assumptions.
Not true
That's not true, as any reader of James's Baseball Abstracts can attest - James referred a number of times in various formulations of his Runs Created formula why he never included batter's strikeouts in the formula, because batter's strikeouts don't impact the player's or team's expected offense.
If you don't believe this, ask yourself - how often do baserunners actually advance on outs in play? On foul pops? On infield and shallow outfield flies? On line-outs? On fielder's choice plays? Not to mention that about half the plate appearances taken in baseball in any given year are taken with the bases empty, so in those situation, the question of 'advancing runners' is moot.
Situational hitting might affect the outcome of a single game or two, but even a casual fan is capable of seeing that how a player performs in a single game or two isn't at all the same as 'quality'.
The
All I can say for runs created metrics is they have been demonstrated to show a remarkably high correlation to actual runs scored. The correlation is higher than almost anything else statisticians will study.
Small correction
Morneau made $368,000 this year. But I get your point.
Thomas
by adam on Nov 21, 2006 4:41 PM EST reply actions
Yes
For all those that would pick Mauer over Morneau
From that standpoint it's easy to see that Morneau was the team's MVP from June 8th on.
by TMoney on Nov 21, 2006 6:32 PM EST reply actions
Yea Baby
Morneau
by TT on Nov 21, 2006 11:33 PM EST reply actions
Morneau...
Rate-wise, Mauer was the more valuable offensive player.
Rate per Season
The MVP is given for production per season, not per plate appearance or at bat. I am not arguing you don't need to consider the question of what negatives a player produced such as outs or strikeouts or failed execution. The reality is Mauer did not play as much as Morneau and produced far less over the course of the season, partially as a result. That is a significant issue in determining who was more valuable.
by TT on Nov 22, 2006 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Their difference in defensive value...
I guess my point with Mauer being better rate-wise is just that stating Morneau's totals overstates the case for Morneau's offensive value. It's valuable information in the debate to know that Morneau needs the extra playing time to give you more offensive value than Mauer. (And Morneau still only comes out ahead if you don't consider the different replacement levels at the two positions, which I would argue is not a good idea, but I don't want to start up an entire replacement level debate here simply because that's a long discussion in and of itself.)
Basically, I understand why Morneau won this award. Essentially, it's because he led the league in Boyfriend-of-the-Day awards. I don't really agree with that description of value, but that disagreement seems to be more a matter of religion than anything else.
Very
i still consider Mauer more valuable because of his position, but the additional number to the additional outs has to be weighed. Was the extra production worth enough more than the extra outs to close-the-gap/extend-his-lead over/under Mauer.
Myself, I'd say the extra time works to Morneau's advantage but isn't enough when you consider Mauer's position and defensive skill.
MVP commentary
You can check it out here.
Apparently Morneau was only the fourth best player on the Twins. Santana, Mauer, and Hunter "were all more critical to the team's success than Morneau."
Speaking in terms of "critical to the team's success" for the 2006 season, I think you could make a reasonable argument for any of Mauer, Santana, or Morneau. I have a real hard time deciding that one. I think I'd lean slightly toward Santana, but when you look at how the team's resurgence conicided with Morneau's, I think that makes a very solid case if this is the main criterium you're considering.
Hunter made for a very solid CF in our lineup, but there's no way he can be considered along with the other three.
by adam on Nov 21, 2006 11:34 PM EST reply actions
I've
Simply saying Hunter isn't the grossest falsehood in the article, the basis is. He says it is because of Hunter's stellar up the middle defense. Hunter played pretty poorly this year, or at least not at a stellar level.
Consistently getting incorrect results based on incorrect assumptions makes for pretty bad writing. I only go to that site for Rosenthall, who I think is the best.
Hunter vs Cuddyer
I said this over at Sickels site, but it bears repeating here. The reason that VORP is not a good metric for MVP is it does not take into account the variable value of outs and total bases. Few would argue that outs are more precious in close and late situations. Similarly, home runs in blow out games are not as valuable as walk-off homers. Most think two out RBIs are more valuable than one-out RBIs in part because they're harder to get. I don't have a magical formula to take these other variables into account, but I'm pretty sure at the end of the day Morneau would come out on top if VORP was modified to take the variable value of outs into account.
The one stat I can state is that Morneau led the league in two-out RBIs (Cuddyer was second) and led the team in walk-off RBIs (again, Cuddyer was second). These so-called clutch hits are the stuff MVP voters cite. Maybe a couple use VORP. But most do not because they're old-school: Intuitively, they understand the varable weight of outs and total bases. Why expect them to use some metric or other when voting when they have never done it that way before?
You could just publish a list of the players with the highest VORP and send them a plaque if it's that important to you.
FWIW, here is my list of most valuable Twins:
Morneau
Mauer
Santana
Cuddyer
Nathan
Hunter
Suspect
In other words, that empirically shows nothing.
Of course Morneau was a bigger hitter than a catcehr, but EVERYONE has a much bigger hitter at first that at catcher. As I said, lot's of teams have mashers who hit 35 dingers or more at first, but very few teams have a pitcher like Johan Santana or a catcher as good as Mauer. Therefore, Mauer and Santana provide the Twins with a greater advantage over other teams than Morneau does.
I like the comment about who do you think the Twins would be better off without? Which of our big three would you least want to replace with a replacement level player? I personally shudder to think about this team without Santana over anyone else.
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
If that is the criterion....
In short, your criterion is a measure of who is more valuable to the team. It's not a measure of who helped the team win the most games in 2006. I give that honor to Morneau, though I confess that I have no argument that will convince you.
Couple Things
And:
"In short, your criterion is a measure of who is more valuable to the team. It's not a measure of who helped the team win the most games in 2006."
Wait.
What?
The player who is "more valuable to the team" isn't the player "who helped the team win the most games in 2006?"
What?
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
And
So if my metric finds the player most valuable, how is not the most valuable player? You'll not, I hope, that the difference is entirely grammatical.
Sigh
Other variables
Wrong
Now you're arguing in circles
1. Which player would be the toughest to replace if removed from the team?
Because replacement is not about the past but the future, and it depends on factors outside the scope of actual performace, having to do with market value and depth in the system.
I argue against VORP elsewhere, as a method to vote for the MVP. That was not what you were talking about when you proposed 1.
I was
That is what I was speaking to.
Abd you haven't argued against my actualy point that you literally called my method a way to judge the "player most valuable" (ie, the most valuable player).
Where is Liriano on that list?
by TMoney on Nov 22, 2006 11:02 AM EST reply actions
Actually
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yahoo
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=ApOm17CyVIaJuhTJufTgyHkRvLYF?slug=ap-almvp&prov=ap&typ e=lgns
by TheMattWilke on Nov 22, 2006 12:22 PM EST reply actions
MSNBC did it, too
replying to your previous comment
by cortalekanak on Jan 13, 2007 5:17 PM EST reply actions
in my opinion
by cortalekanak on Jan 16, 2007 6:49 PM EST reply actions

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