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Morneau MVP

This is gonna be a race to get the first post up... and damnit... I'm gonna win. Awhile back I posted a diary showing why Justin Morneau was the league's mvp.  Today, I look like a genius.

Morneau won the league MVP over Derek The Douchebag Jeter by a point total of 320-306.  It's interesting to note that while Morneau recieved three more first place votes than Jeter (15-12), he actually received less second place votes.

Fellow Twins Joe Mauer (6th) and Johan Santana (7th and got the only other first place vote) also garnered respectable vote totals.  

What a great year for the Minnesota Twins! To be completely honest, if you told me at this time last year that Morneau was going to be MVP... I would have laughed for hours.  Congratulations Justin on being the League's best and even more so for breaking the hearts of the gazillions of people who drop to their knees at the mention of the word Jeter. Hooray Twins.

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Funny
This is kind of funny since I think Morneau was the worst of the Twins' three candidates for the award, but I'm glad he won it.

Honestly, I'm not sure if Jeter didn't really deserve it, but It's exciting that Morneau won it.  It is a good recognition of all three of our stars accomplishments.

My God this team is top heavy though.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2006 2:24 PM EST reply actions  

This is terrible
As a baseball fan, there is no way to justify this.  As a Twins fan, it embarrasses me.

Morneau was the 3rd best player...ON THE TWINS.  There is just no way he's MVP.  This is like George Bell winning in 1987, or Andre Dawson the same year.

Actually, this year is similar to 87, where two guys who were absolutely not good choices won the awards.

The BBWAA just absolutely blew it.  Complete head scratcher.  Jeter actually deserved the award; him or Mauer.  How they came up with Morneau just baffles me.  

by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2006 2:37 PM EST reply actions  

best vs. most valuable
The award is not for the "best" player...it is for the "most valuable"

by wcooley on Nov 21, 2006 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

This isn't terrible!
A Twin won the vote for MVP, be happy, it's not often the national media takes notice of lowly Minnesota.  I know Morneau's numbers aren't quite as important because he plays 1st, but he did have a monster season.  I know the argument for Mauer is that he's a catcher and it's a much more difficult position and his defensive value is higher. But to be honest, Santana has done the same thing he's done the past three seasons so why should he all of a sudden be an MVP this year, and Mauer could've hit only .300, but if Morneau hadn't done what he did this season this team would've finished nowhere near contention.  Morneau won because he was the difference maker on the team and in the league.

On another note I want to know the last team that featured a batting title, a Cy Young winner and an MVP (not to mention a guy who finished 3rd in the ROY category).  All of which were different players.  Anyone have a record book?

break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Nov 21, 2006 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Morneau
I'm happy he won as a Twins fan, but have to say I don't get this logic.

"Morneau won because he was the difference maker on the team and in the league."

So you are saying if Mauer had hit .300 the Twins would still have won the division?  Remember, they only won by 1 game.  What specifically makes Morneau the difference maker and not Mauer or Santana?  

And you are saying Santana doesn't deserve it because he... is always really really good?

Yes, Morneau had a great season, especially considering where he was last year (or even in June).  But I think it may be a stretch to call him the 'difference maker'

by Diggity Dino on Nov 21, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Book?
Anyone have a record book?

If only there was some collection of baseball statistics accessible through a global network of computers...

Heh.

The last time it happened in all of baseball was 1991, when Terry Pendleton won the batting title and MVP in the NL, while Tom Glavine won the Cy Young. We know what happened to them in the post-season.

(In fairness, it nearly happened again in 2005 with Chris Carpenter winning the NL Cy and Albert Pujols winning the MVP and coming five points of batting average short of winning the batting title.)

The last time it happened in the AL was in 1986, when Roger Clemens won both the MVP and Cy Young, while Wade Boggs won the batting title.

It's happened that two people were involved in winning the three awards a number of times prior to that as well (Dick Groat and Vern Law in 1960, Carl Yazstrzemski and Jim Lonborg in 1967, Robin Yount and Pete Vuckovich in 1982), but the last time it happened with three different players was with the 1962 Dodgers - Tommy Davis won the batting title (with a .346 average), Maury Wills won the MVP, and some guy named Don Drysdale won the Cy Young.

(By the way, 1962 is also the only other time it's happened that three different players won the three 'awards'; there was no Cy Young award prior to 1956.)

by dwintheiser on Nov 21, 2006 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Dear caseintheface:
Basically you're argument boils down the following: the Twins would have been better off with a carbon-copy of Johan (rather than the real Johan), an all-star calliber catcher (rather than Mauer), and Morneau playing first base, rather than having the real Johan, Mauer, and no Morneau at all...this is the silliest argument you possibly could have made.

Let's ask the question this way: would the Twins have been better off with an average starting pitcher rather than Johan, an average starting catcher (.271/.332/.417) rather than Mauer, or an average starting first baseman (.280/.352/.467) rather than Morneau?

by Bobomojo on Nov 21, 2006 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm
I'm not so sure between Mauer and Morneau, though I'd lean to Mauer, and the numbers back me up (VORP mostly, as well as Mauer's D), but I would not want to see this team without Johan.

Things aren't gonna' change anytime soon.  If Johan goes down for anything this year.  ANYTHING.  The Twins go down with him.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2006 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Difference maker?
Morneau won because he was the difference maker on the team and in the league.

Count me in among those who find this an unpersuasive argument. After all, Nick Punto hit .290/725 this year, after a career prior to that point of about .240/640. By the 'difference maker' criteria, you could argue that Punto was the league MVP.

by dwintheiser on Nov 21, 2006 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Come now...
Don't be mean guys... I know "difference maker" may not be the greatest argument, but unlike the guys who actually write for this site, I don't have two hours to put together a huge convincing argument.  My point is that lets not diminish what Morneau did this season.  I recognize all the stats on average production and value over replacement.  Still we must all recognize that Morneau is an MVP not only because he's a run producer in terms of RBI's and HR's but because he's a complete hitter in that he hit .321.  Not only that, but there is no major drop off in production against left-handed pitching.  On top of all this, Morneau established himself as a very good 1st basemen (not a great defensive player like Jeter who one a Gold Glove...) but a good defender.  And to be quite blunt, Morneau was more involved in the daily success of the Twins more than Mauer and definetly more than Santana.  
break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Nov 21, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Case
I am with you.  Morneau provided what the Twins had lacked since what felt like forever: a middle of the order power presence.  The MVP award is subjective (see: Kirk Gibson), and if I had a vote Morneau would get it.

by wcooley on Nov 21, 2006 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

terrible? embarrassing???
Man, get a grip!!

For the pressies (who are superficial), it's pretty easy to argue Morneau over Mauer.

First:  Morneau turning his season around coincided with the Twins turning their season around.

Second:  Morneau got hot and pretty much stayed that way to the end.  Mauer wasn't as consistent (scorching hot - more than Morneau - early, then he dropped off some).

Third:  The curse of the Twins was (is?) that it takes three hits to score a run.  While Mauer has more power than the "curse" implies, Justin is one of the few guys in the lineup every day who gets runs in with one swing fairly consistently.

You can make some other arguments that aren't as clear cut (Morneau hitting behind Cuddyer helped Cuddyer, pitchers have their MVP award - it's called "Cy Young", etc.), but I think Justin's deserving.  

by BD57 on Nov 21, 2006 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean, it's like some collective madness
Paul Konerko finished in a tie for 22nd with 3 points.  Can anyone seriously tell me the 300+ point difference between Morneau's season and Konerko's?  

A little credit for closing strong and making the playoffs?  I'm not sure that should matter, but OK, bump him up.  But from a couple of down ballot mentions to actually winning the freaking award?  

What a disaster.  

Just no understanding of positional value at all.  For some reason a chunk of the media latched on to Morneau, and madness ensued.  And Mauer not getting any 1st or 2nd place votes.  Just nuts.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2006 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

Easy Now...
Before you fly off the handle, lets slow down and think about this for a second.  There are a couple reasons why you're argument it a bit weak:

1.) The award isn't titled "Best Offensive Numbers".  
Paul Konerko had no business being at the top of the list, I'm just fine with 22nd.  They call the award Most Valuable because it's just that, which player is the Most Valuable.  Sure Konerko is solid, but Chicago didn't make the playoffs because of Konerko. So along this theme... why would you say Mauer had a better season??? Yes, he hit 26 points better over the season, but how bout the chunk of time when the Twins were fighting back into the race.  From June 8th on Morneau led the world with a .362 avg.  The point is NOBODY (aside from maybe Howard of the Phillies) was more important to his team than Morneau.  Can you imagine what the Twins offensive would have been like without him?  Replace Morneau's numbers with say Tiffees and then knock off a large chunk of Cuddyers numbers due to the ZERO protection he'd have in the lineup. That's bad... scary bad.  Morneau carried the DIVISION CHAMPS for 3 months... who else can say that?  Jeter??? Dream on... that lineup could stick me in the order and score more runs than the Twins.

2.) Morneau's stats are better than Jeter's and Mauer's.  This is what really pisses me off... why are people so hung up on Jeter??? What did he do that was so great?  He hit a whopping .23 points better than Morneau and stole an extra 20some bags.  Ok... so there is a little difference there, but now let's figure in the 24 more homers Morneau had or the 33 more RBI's he had... and it swings the other way a bit.  And please save the argument that Jeter hits leadoff and that's why he didn't drive in as many.  That's crap... Posada and Cano were on base more than enough for Jeter to have RBI opportunities.

3.) If you're gonna complain about someone getting robbed, you should be pining for Frank Thomas.  For 500,000 that man was Hands down the best production for price in the league.  And in that lineup he was even more valuable.

In summary... for all "Jeter should have one" lobbyists try getting off your knees and taking a look at the numbers and quit listening to what the Baseball Tonite people have to say.  I'm assuming you're old enough to think for yourself, try it.  

by SDTwinsFan on Nov 21, 2006 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Position
Morneau's numbers were better than the two others, but he plays first base and the standard is a lot higher there.  Lots of teams have big bopper third baseman.  Only one team has a catcher that wins the batting title, and very few have any that even come close.

That being said, I think the Twins, as a team (aka, as J-Mo, Mauer, and Santana) sexerved to get this award from one of them to honor all of them.

It's just nice to see the flaws in baseball's system to work in the Twins favor and against the Yankees for once.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2006 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

sexerved
sexerved to get this award

Your ever-present typos are starting to turn into freudian slips!

I'm not sure what "sexerved" means and not sure that I want to...

by adam on Nov 21, 2006 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Meh
My typos have gone down somewhat, in large part because of the introduction of Firefox 2.

at any rate, yes, obviously that should be deserved...

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2006 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

typos
I hope you don't totally eliminate your typos.  They can be quite entertaining.

I have yet to download Firefox 2.  It has a spell-check or something?  I'll have to check it out.

by adam on Nov 21, 2006 11:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Speelchekr
yuppers, Fiirawx 2 has a gurt speelchequer

No, seriously though, it kicks ass...

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 2:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Dear Justin,
Dear Justin,

During the pre-season I ranted on a post on Twinkietown that you weren't smart enough to make the adjustment to fix your hitting woes.  I called you something to the effect of an oaf.  I criticized you for never looking like you wanted to be there and being blissfully unaware that what your game was not cutting it at this level.  

I became more aware of the prospects behind you thinking that after this season the Twins would start looking elsewhere at 1B.  Members of Twinkietown got on my case, and I realized I got carried away, but the attitude remained.

For the first two months of the season you proved me right.  You continued to be an easy out for pitchers.  All they had to do was throw the ball on the outer half of the plate.  You would consequently flyout, strikeout, or get behind in the count.  

Then Gardy said something that flicked a lightbulb and you proved me wrong.  Pitches on the outer-half began to get knocked into left field Mauer-style.  Runs began to be knocked in.  Homers began to be hit.  You hit .362 after June 8 and finished the year with 130 RBI.  You started smiling on the field.  The best part was that the Twins followed your lead.  The team got hot when you took off.  And they didn't look back.  That is the truest meaning of an MVP, and that's why you won the award, even if Mauer and Santana were more consistently valuable to the Twins.    

For all of this, I'm sorry that I insulted your intelligence and questioned your attitude.  You winning the award may have been a bit on the fashionable side, and maybe Derek Jeter deserved it more than you did.  But this reminder eases the disappointment of the playoffs this year.  It's a reminder that 2006 featured the Twins as the home of the Cy Young, the Batting Champ, and now the MVP.  A reminder that 3 disappointing games shouldn't wipe out the fun of 96 great games.  

by TheMattWilke on Nov 21, 2006 3:02 PM EST reply actions  

Excellent post
my brother.  At one point early this year after Morneau took one of his many hacks at a ball at his neck I told my wife that Morneau had "shitferbrains."  I was out of line

Congrats

by wcooley on Nov 21, 2006 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Man let's celebrate
Apparently the cold stove in TR's office is making everyone crabby. This is an historical day! The Twins brought home amazing hardware, and all some guys can do is act as if it's the end of the world. I never thought I'd see the day when a Twins fan actually complained because our oy won over the overrated Jeter. Get over yourselves and lighten up. It's an award voted on by newspaper writers. And  a Twin won. Rejoice and be glad! Give thanks this Thanksgiving for the awards.

For what it's worth, I think VORP is a bad way to measure MVP. By VORP Jeter wins, Mauer is second, and Morneau is 10th. I take this to be an indicator that you dont use VORP to decide the MVP award. It doesn't measure defense and it doesn't measure most valuable and it might not even measure best. For example, VORP seems to seriously undervalue the home run. And it does not take into account strikeouts. If the three metrics used to evaluate pitchers are home runs, strikeouts and walks, why is it that only one of them is really captured adequately in VORP (walks)? The assymetry betweeen the way pitchers and hitters are evaluated is striking.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2006 4:27 PM EST reply actions  

Vorp
Vorp measures a players offensive impact.  That actually helps Morneau since he isn't a stand-out defender like Mauer, but isn't sub-par like Jeter.

It demonstrates how many runs a player provided for his team over what any other team might have otherwise.  I'd say that's a pretty good measure of offensive value.

Oh, and Jeter wouldn't be first.  Santana was just a fraction ahead of him...

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2006 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Missing something in your VORP analysis
Your complaint that Morneau ranks behind Jeter and Mauer in VORP appears to be ignoring a key aspect of VORP.  If I'm reading your post correctly, it looks like you're thinking that they're being compared directly to each other, which isn't the case.  VORP stands for "Value Over Replacement Player", and it's meant to show how many runs the player produced compared to a substitute-level player at his position.  In general, shortstops and catchers are much worse hitters than first basemen, meaning that Morneau needs higher overall offensive production to get the same VORP as Mauer or Jeter.
If the three metrics used to evaluate pitchers are home runs, strikeouts and walks, why is it that only one of them is really captured adequately in VORP (walks)?

Home runs are factored into VORP (it may use total bases, actually, but that still makes home runs valuable); again, it just appears otherwise in this case because Morneau's VORP is harmed by being a first baseman.  As for the value of strikeouts, they are generally more valuable for pitchers.  For a hitter, except in a few situations (mostly runners in scoring position with less than two outs), a strikeout is basically just another out.  For a pitcher, a strikeout is the safest way to retire a batter, as it completely removes from the equation all the crazy things that can happen when a ball is put into play.  I could see modifying VORP (and similar all-in-one statistics like EqA) to add a small penalty for strikeouts, but weighing them more heavily for pitchers than hitters makes perfect sense to me.

For what it's worth, I think VORP is a bad way to measure MVP. By VORP Jeter wins, Mauer is second, and Morneau is 10th. I take this to be an indicator that you dont use VORP to decide the MVP award.

Do you mean "don't", or "shouldn't" in that last sentence?  There appears to be a mild anti-sabermetric bias in the BBWAA (see last year's AL Cy Young results for further evidence), and I doubt that VORP is much of a factor in any voters' votes.  I agree with you (in another post in this thread) that I don't want the MVP to simply be awarded just to the player with the highest VORP, but I think it is a useful tool for comparison.

by BeefMaster on Nov 22, 2006 12:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Then we agree
I agree with you (in another post in this thread) that I don't want the MVP to simply be awarded just to the player with the highest VORP, but I think it is a useful tool for comparison.

Yes, it's valuable when comparing players at a certain position. It's valuable to compare Morneau against Konerko, e.g. And it's especially valauable for  GMs and talent evaluators who want to identify holes on their team. If a guy is below league average in VORP and there's little chance for improvement, that would be a position a GM should consider upgrading.

But there is no formula that I know of that gives the relative value of the positions. Yes catcher and shortstop are more valuable positions than first base, but how much more? If you knew that VORP multipier for each position, you could defiitively say whether or not Jeter's numbers are more valuable than Morneau's. Until you do, it's just guess work. To say that they are is just an admission that there are a lot more Juan Castros around than Carlos Penas. So what?

I happen to think catcher is more valuable than shortstop. Apparently I'm in the minority. But until there is a way of objectively deciding this issue, there's no winning the argument.

Even if you had that multiplier, you would also want to take into account close-and-late numbers and such, which would ultimately introduce bias against starting pitchers. So I'm not optimisitic that you can take all the MVP votes over the years and creat a formula for it.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Replacement Level
Yes, it's valuable when comparing players at a certain position. It's valuable to compare Morneau against Konerko, e.g. And it's especially valauable for  GMs and talent evaluators who want to identify holes on their team. If a guy is below league average in VORP and there's little chance for improvement, that would be a position a GM should consider upgrading.

The whole point of VORP is to compare players at different positions - if one wanted to compare players at the same position, OPS would be roughly as good, and for advanced metrics, EqA would probably be better if you're just considering offense.  VORP's attempt to account for positional differences is its main advantage.

But there is no formula that I know of that gives the relative value of the positions. Yes catcher and shortstop are more valuable positions than first base, but how much more? If you knew that VORP multipier for each position, you could defiitively say whether or not Jeter's numbers are more valuable than Morneau's.

According to an article I found from 2001, replacement level is defined as 70 points of OPS below the league average at the position, while Wikipedia says that it's usually defined as roughly 80% of the league average; I'm not sure which the current calculations use, but I'd guess they're pretty similar.  I'm not positive where to find the data for the league positional average, but I'm sure it's fairly easily available once one knows where to look.  Either way, the "VORP multiplier" is based on the league average results for the position.  Whether the definition of replacement level is appropriate is of course open to debate.

I'm not optimisitic that you can take all the MVP votes over the years and creat a formula for it.

I don't think this would be possible, especially since MVP voters usually heavily weigh team performance (which is why A-Rod took so long to win one), and there's always the "popularity contest" aspect - Ted Williams twice failed to win the MVP despite winning the triple crown.

by BeefMaster on Nov 22, 2006 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure about this
As for the value of strikeouts, they are generally more valuable for pitchers.  For a hitter, except in a few situations (mostly runners in scoring position with less than two outs), a strikeout is basically just another out.

It seems to me the surest way to make an out if you're either a hitter or a pitcher is by strikeout. If you are a contact pitcher, your success depends on your fielders' making plays. If you're a contact hitter, your success depends on the other teams' fielders not making plays.

There are lots of ways in which a contact out is better than a strikeout for a hitter and worse for a pitcher. They move runners along, they force the defense to make plays. And in the extreme case, you can never score on a strikeout except by wild pitch. So not all outs are created equal, and strikeouts are good for pitchers and bad for hitters in roughly the same magnitude. But Sabermetrics treats strikeouts indifferently for hitters and makes them perhaps THE key stat for  pitchers.

The reason for this is that different people developed diferent metrics for hitters as pitchers. Voros McCracken developed defense-independent pitching stats, but never developed defense-independent hitting stats. Bill James developed most of the hitting stats and never considered whether two hitters that have very similar statistics except for strikeouts might actually vary in quality.

Have you ever considered that Joe Mauer had one of the unluckiest years in the league: He hit the ball hard almost every time up and he only hit safely 35% of the time. Jayson Tyner hit the ball hard only half the time and still hit safely 30 % of the time. Why? Because defenses made plays against Mauer (better advanced scouting, Mauer the marked man, etc.) that they did not make against Tyner. If someone developed a defense-independent hitting stat, Mauer would be twice as good as Tyner. Such a stat would severely penalize hitters for strikeouts.

I don't know what this means for the present discussion, except that VORP is not a defense-independent hitting stat, and, in fact does not take situational hitting into account at all. James doens't think situational hitting makes a difference. I'm not convinced by his arguments. When someone argues from assumptions and proves something in direct conflict with observed reality (such as productive outs), my first response is to question his assumptions.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Not true
<i<Bill James developed most of the hitting stats and never considered whether two hitters that have very similar statistics except for strikeouts might actually vary in quality.</i>

That's not true, as any reader of James's Baseball Abstracts can attest - James referred a number of times in various formulations of his Runs Created formula why he never included batter's strikeouts in the formula, because batter's strikeouts don't impact the player's or team's expected offense.

If you don't believe this, ask yourself - how often do baserunners actually advance on outs in play? On foul pops? On infield and shallow outfield flies? On line-outs? On fielder's choice plays? Not to mention that about half the plate appearances taken in baseball in any given year are taken with the bases empty, so in those situation, the question of 'advancing runners' is moot.

Situational hitting might affect the outcome of a single game or two, but even a casual fan is capable of seeing that how a player performs in a single game or two isn't at all the same as 'quality'.

by dwintheiser on Nov 22, 2006 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

The
The problem with this logic is then strikeouts shouldn't really affect a pitcher's numbers either...

All I can say for runs created metrics is they have been demonstrated to show a remarkably high correlation to actual runs scored.  The correlation is higher than almost anything else statisticians will study.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Small correction
For 500,000 that man was Hands down the best production for price in the league.

Morneau made $368,000 this year. But I get your point.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2006 4:33 PM EST reply actions  

Thomas
He was citing the Big Hurt's salary there, which I believe, was in fact $500,000.

by adam on Nov 21, 2006 4:41 PM EST reply actions  

Yes
And I was citing Morneuas salary, which was $368,000. Considering that he had better numbers than Thomas and played a position an dhe made less money, Morneau gave his team better value than Thomas. That is all I'm saying.
Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

For all those that would pick Mauer over Morneau
When looking at production from June 8th on Morneau had a line that looked like .362/.411.611 with 23HR 72R and 92RBI while leading the league in hits and total bases, and Mauer batted .333/.427/.495 with 8HR 57R and 55RBI.  

From that standpoint it's easy to see that Morneau was the team's MVP from June 8th on.

by TMoney on Nov 21, 2006 6:32 PM EST reply actions  

Yea Baby
this is fun, just enjoy it guys and gals.  Stats and all can be this way and that way but enjoy the moment.  "A SWEEEEEEEEP" our guys were consistant and stayed together and played team ball.  this is fun and we handed it to the Yankees.  now lets see TR pull a fast one and rock on with some great young players   into 07 and stay healthy and get the "The Kid" back and rock some more.  for this old Twins guy this is fun.  
"hi everybody" Herb Carneal Hall of fame baseball announcer.

by firstatbat61 on Nov 21, 2006 7:24 PM EST reply actions  

Morneau
Had more hits, more doubles, more home runs, more runs scored and more RBI's than Mauer. By any realistic measure he was a much more valuable offensive player.

by TT on Nov 21, 2006 11:33 PM EST reply actions  

Morneau...
...also made 66 more outs than Mauer in the process.

Rate-wise, Mauer was the more valuable offensive player.

by ubelmann on Nov 22, 2006 1:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Rate per Season
Rate-wise, Mauer was the more valuable offensive player.

The MVP is given for production per season, not per plate appearance or at bat. I am not arguing you don't need to consider the question of what negatives a player produced such as outs or strikeouts or failed execution. The reality is Mauer did not play as much as Morneau and produced far less over the course of the season, partially as a result. That is a significant issue in determining who was more valuable.

by TT on Nov 22, 2006 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Their difference in defensive value...
...is also a significant issue.  An issue, I would argue, that most Morneau supporters I've seen (not necessarily you) would rather just ignore rather than acknowledge and ponder.  (Also, looking at the BBWAA vote, it seems as though they really don't care about defense or "the little things" considering the number of lumbering sluggers with little to no defensive value or baserunning value at the top of the rankings.)

I guess my point with Mauer being better rate-wise is just that stating Morneau's totals overstates the case for Morneau's offensive value.  It's valuable information in the debate to know that Morneau needs the extra playing time to give you more offensive value than Mauer.  (And Morneau still only comes out ahead if you don't consider the different replacement levels at the two positions, which I would argue is not a good idea, but I don't want to start up an entire replacement level debate here simply because that's a long discussion in and of itself.)

Basically, I understand why Morneau won this award.  Essentially, it's because he led the league in Boyfriend-of-the-Day awards.  I don't really agree with that description of value, but that disagreement seems to be more a matter of religion than anything else.

by ubelmann on Nov 23, 2006 12:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Very
Very true and exactly right.

i still consider Mauer more valuable because of his position, but the additional number to the additional outs has to be weighed.  Was the extra production worth enough more than the extra outs to close-the-gap/extend-his-lead over/under Mauer.

Myself, I'd say the extra time works to Morneau's advantage but isn't enough when you consider Mauer's position and defensive skill.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 23, 2006 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

MVP commentary
Dayn Perry occasionally has some good observations. But his MVP commentary has completely convinced me of his ignorance or lunacy or some combination of the two.

You can check it out here.

Apparently Morneau was only the fourth best player on the Twins. Santana, Mauer, and Hunter "were all more critical to the team's success than Morneau."

Speaking in terms of "critical to the team's success" for the 2006 season, I think you could make a reasonable argument for any of Mauer, Santana, or Morneau. I have a real hard time deciding that one. I think I'd lean slightly toward Santana, but when you look at how the team's resurgence conicided with Morneau's, I think that makes a very solid case if this is the main criterium you're considering.

Hunter made for a very solid CF in our lineup, but there's no way he can be considered along with the other three.

by adam on Nov 21, 2006 11:34 PM EST reply actions  

I've
I've never really liked or respected Dayn Perry's analysis.  I tend to be trite and vastly false most of the time.

Simply saying Hunter isn't the grossest falsehood in the article, the basis is.  He says it is because of Hunter's stellar up the middle defense.  Hunter played pretty poorly this year, or at least not at a stellar level.

Consistently getting incorrect results based on incorrect assumptions makes for pretty bad writing.  I only go to that site for Rosenthall, who I think is the best.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 2:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Hunter vs Cuddyer
I too rarely trust Perry's analysis. He's espcially error prone regarding personnel issues. In this case, I have a hard time saying Hunter provided more value to the team than Cuddyer, so, by extension he did not come close to providing more value to the team than Morneau. remember when some writers were pushing for Kirby to get the MVP award in 1991? Their reasoning was he was the only player in baseball to drive in 100 runs and score 100 runs that year. That's what Cuddyer did for the Twins this year. He's my pick for fourth most valuable player and Hunter is sixth (Nathan is fifth).

I said this over at Sickels site, but it bears repeating here. The reason that VORP is not a good metric for MVP is it does not take into account the variable value of outs and total bases. Few would argue that outs are more precious in close and late situations. Similarly, home runs in blow out games are not as valuable as walk-off homers. Most think two out RBIs are more valuable than one-out RBIs in part because they're harder to get. I don't have a magical formula to take these other variables into account, but I'm pretty sure at the end of the day Morneau would come out on top if VORP was modified to take the variable value of outs into account.

The one stat I can state is that Morneau led the league in two-out RBIs (Cuddyer was second) and led the team in walk-off RBIs (again, Cuddyer was second). These so-called clutch hits are the stuff MVP voters cite. Maybe a couple use VORP. But most do not because they're old-school: Intuitively, they understand the varable weight of outs and total bases. Why expect them to use some metric or other when voting when they have never done it that way before?

You could just publish a list of the players with the highest VORP and send them a plaque if it's that important to you.

FWIW, here is my list of most valuable Twins:

Morneau
Mauer
Santana
Cuddyer
Nathan
Hunter

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 10:59 AM EST reply actions  

Suspect
The fact that Cuddyer is second right behind Morneau in two out RBI should key you off that both players were getting an obscene number of chances in those 4-5 spots in our order.

In other words, that empirically shows nothing.

Of course Morneau was a bigger hitter than a catcehr, but EVERYONE has a much bigger hitter at first that at catcher.  As I said, lot's of teams have mashers who hit 35 dingers or more at first, but very few teams have a pitcher like Johan Santana or a catcher as good as Mauer.  Therefore, Mauer and Santana provide the Twins with a greater advantage over other teams than Morneau does.

I like the comment about who do you think the Twins would be better off without?  Which of our big three would you least want to replace with a replacement level player?  I personally shudder to think about this team without Santana over anyone else.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

If that is the criterion....
I would say Santana, at least until Liriano is mature enough to take on the load that Santana shoulders every year. But that depends on a myriad of factors, including depth at the position, that have nothing to do with the player's individual performance in 2006. If Liriano were healthy and ready to put up the kind of numbers he did in 2006 for a full season, I would give that designation to Mauer. If the Twins had a stud catcher in waiting but no viable first basemen, I might say Morneau. Actually by this measure, Hunter is more valuable than Morneau because the Twins don't have a center fielder to replace Hunter and, judging by Juan Pierre's ridiculous contract, it is hard to replace center fielders.

In short, your criterion is a measure of who is more valuable to the team. It's not a measure of who helped the team win the most games in 2006. I give that honor to Morneau, though I confess that I have no argument that will convince you.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Couple Things
I wasn't speaking directly to the MVP here, I was just comenting.  Also, I was saying who the Twins would least afford to trade for a league average player at that position, not the player we actually have.

And:

"In short, your criterion is a measure of who is more valuable to the team. It's not a measure of who helped the team win the most games in 2006."

Wait.

What?

The player who is "more valuable to the team" isn't the player "who helped the team win the most games in 2006?"

What?

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

And
And isn't "the player most valuable to the team" like, I dunno, the TEXTBOOK definition of the MVP.  Isn't it, say, just a reordering of the friggin' name of the award?

So if my metric finds the player most valuable, how is not the most valuable player?  You'll not, I hope, that the difference is entirely grammatical.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Sigh
Yeah, in the last sentence, "You'll not" should be something along the lines of "You'll find."  I think I must have gotten up from my computer, walked don the hall, talked to someone for ten minutes, then came back and finished my post without actually looking it back over to remember where I was at.
"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Other variables
The difference is, in one case you take into account just what the player did in 2006, in the other you take into account the value you expect him to give you in the future and weigh that against how hard it would be to replace him. Does that make sense?
Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Wrong
While Vorp can be USED to project the future, it is a measure of WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  That is, what advantage a player gave his team over what the average team had at that position.
"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Now you're arguing in circles
It could be a simple misunderstanding. But I never said VORP had anything to do with future performance. I don't know where you got that. When you proposed using 1 as the criterion for deciding MVP, I objected:

1. Which player would be the toughest to replace if removed from the team?

Because replacement is not about the past but the future, and it depends on factors outside the scope of actual performace, having to do with market value and depth in the system.

I argue against VORP elsewhere, as a method to vote for the MVP. That was not what you were talking about when you proposed 1.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I was
I was speaking hypothetically in the past, as in, if you took the Twins last year and replaced any one of Santana, Mauer, and Morneau with a league average player at that position, who do you think would have the biggest effect?

That is what I was speaking to.

Abd you haven't argued against my actualy point that you literally called my method a way to judge the "player most valuable" (ie, the most valuable player).

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Where is Liriano on that list?
He was certainly very valuable to the team this year.

by TMoney on Nov 22, 2006 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

Seventh
Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2006 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually
Actually, he was right up there with Morneau in terms of Vorp.
"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 22, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

MSNBC did it, too
MSNBC ignored Morneau in a different way.  Their front-page headline link to the AL MVP article was "Yankees' Jeter denied first MVP award".

by BeefMaster on Nov 22, 2006 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

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