Melky Cabrera

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 1:28 AM EST

Apparently, the Yankees are willing to deal Melky Cabrera for a relief pitcher.

I think it would make all kinds of sense for the Twins to try to move Rincon or Crain for Melky. Consider for a moment a player A, player B comparison:

.280/.360/.390, 60 SO/56 BB, 22 years old -- Player A
.285/.340/.349, 78 SO/40 BB, 22 years old -- Player B

Both players can play center field adequately, but don't figure to win any Gold Gloves. So already, you're probably thinking Player A is better than Player B, but it's not a huge difference. Now on top of that, consider that Player A collected his numbers in the major leagues and that Player B collected his numbers in AA. That makes the difference larger.

Player A is Melky Cabrera and Player B is Denard Span. What worries me most about Span compared to Cabrera is that Span is hitting for no power whatsoever as a minor leaguer. A .065 ISO might as well be a .000 ISO. Combining that with anything other than a 1:1 BB:SO rate usually spells disaster. Cabrera's not perfect--there are some questions about whether last year was a bit of a fluke--but he hit for about twice as many extra bases in the minors as Span (a .126 ISO), so I think he stands a much better chance of translating his high average, high OBP, low power approach to the majors than Span does.

Considering what the Blue Jays just spent on Vernon Wells, what Carlos Beltran recently went for, and the ridiculous deals that guys like Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews, Jr. are pulling down, I see little chance that the Twins are going to be able to retain Torii Hunter's services in the long term. And as of today, there is currently a rather large question mark in left field--it might be White, it might be a Ford/Tyner platoon, and it sounds like it definitely won't be Jason Kubel.

Acquiring Cabrera would give us something better than a Ford/Tyner platoon in LF this year, and he would be bar none the best option for the Twins in center field once Torii Hunter is gone. He figures to be about a league average hitter with an average glove in CF. That's above average production at CF, and we'd be getting it for near the minimum.

Rincon and Crain each have significant value to this team, but I'd be willing to explore dealing one of the two in order to get a long-term solution for center field. Mike Gonzalez is pretty good himself, so it's possible that the Twins would have to offer more than Rincon or Crain, which would make this proposition less desirable, but this is definitely something that I hope Terry Ryan is exploring.

Not a slam dunk case, but perhaps something to stoke the hot stove.

Poll

Would you trade Rincon or Crain for Melky Cabrera?

Brilliant!

12 votes

Yes

13 votes

Maybe

16 votes

No

7 votes

This is a stupid idea

5 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I

I think everyone here has gotten a little too gung-ho about sending away one of our relievers. Rincon may have had a "down" year last season in many respects, but he still managed to real in yet another season with an ERA below 3. Very few set-up men have proven they can consistently put forth such ERA's, and Rincon has put himself in that category. Trading him for a marginal upgrade in left (while a better option is still on the market) who is likely just off a fluke season, who may or may not even be the long term answer to our situation at a position, is not something I would refrain from calling dumb.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 17, 2006 5:29 AM EST reply actions

It's not that Rincon doesn't have value...

...I think that Rincon and Crain are each great relief pitchers. But five pre-free agency years of an above average center fielder is a good return for even a solid set-up man.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Also...

...I have a very bad feeling that the Twins are planning on Ford/Tyner in LF right now. A very, very bad feeling.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Ya...

I kind of like Cabrera, but I think it might take quite a bit to get him. While Pittsburgh apparently has some under-the-table agreement with NY teams (see last year's trades) Mike Gonzalez has more trade value than either of Rincon/Crain because 1) he has closer experience, and 2) he's a lefty. Call it what you want, but that does add up to more "value" on the trade market in reality. I'm also not sure I'd give up Rincon to the Yanks just for the fact that it makes them awfully tough to beat. Crain, I don't have quite as much confidence in, but still....

I guess I'd just rather explore some other OF candidates than Melky in a trade for what it appears it would take to get him. ie Murton, Jeff Baker, etc.

by djskilbr on Dec 17, 2006 6:03 AM EST reply actions

Right...

...if it takes more than Rincon or Crain, then I almost certainly wouldn't do it, and there are reasons to value Gonzalez over Rincon or Crain.

On the other hand, the most recent reports I've read have this as a three-team deal that sends Adam LaRoche to the Pirates, Cabrera to the Braves, and Gonzalez to the Yankees. Three team deals are often difficult to get done, so it's possible that the Yankees can't get Gonzalez in return for Cabrera. Depending on how much they want to improve their bullpen this year, they might be willing to explore other trade avenues if the three-way deal falls through.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

Not necessarily...

Gonzalez is highly coveted, but his advantages you cite (lefty, closer) are at least partially negated by the fact he's never pitched more than 54 innings in a season (whereas Rincon and Crain both push 80) and Gonzalez pads his numbers a bit by playing NL Central competition.

That said, I wouldn't trade for Cabrera even if I could. At this point I think he's a 4th outfielder caught in the New York hype machine. I'd maybe consider it for whoever loses their job in Boston's outfield (Crisp or Pena). I've seen both their names dropped in articles regarding Gonzalez or the Nationals' Chad Cordero.

by jianfu on Dec 18, 2006 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

I would argue that...

...Cabrera is no more a product of the New York hype machine than Denard Span is a product of the Minnesota Twins' hype machine. Cabrera is (and has been) a much more legitimate prospect than Span, who is probably the Twins' "best" long-term option in center.

Wily Mo Pena has a lot less value in my view than Cabrera because Pena has no defensive value and ought to be a DH. Crisp has always been overrated as a fielder and is a stretch in CF, whereas I don't really think that's the case for Cabrera.

But at any rate, I'm not so much interested in Cabrera specifically as I'm interested in acquiring a young player who can play CF long-term.

by ubelmann on Dec 18, 2006 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

Span

Ublemann,

I don't disagree with you at all that Span's overrated (although, I'm not sure a lot of observors outside of the Twins consider Span good prospect anymore, so maybe "overrated" is a bad term). The Twins say Span's on the same pace Torii Hunter was, so they're not worried, but a guy moving at Hunter's pace and succeeding is more exception than rule, and Hunter possesses better tools than Span.

I also agree the Twins would be wise to consider acquiring an outfielder. So I think we're debating the particulars more than the idea. I just think if you give up a pitcher the calibur of Rincon or Crain you should get something better, especially in this environment, because I think it's more difficult to produce a shutdown arm than it is to find a player like Cabrera. (Just my opinion, and I very well may be underestimating the guy. Who knows?)

Dayton Moore's gone bonkers in KC; I'd have half a mind to offer him JD Durbin for David DeJesus.

by jianfu on Dec 18, 2006 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

I'd do...

...Durbin for DeJesus in a heartbeat. You're right that Moore has been making some pretty weird decisions lately and the odd decision to bring in Joey Gaithright (a generally worthless player in my view) would seem to indicate that they might be undervaluing DeJesus.

by ubelmann on Dec 18, 2006 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

I completely agree...

and if ever there was an inter-division trade (KC doesn't seem to have a problem with these of late) that makes sense, this is it. Moore wants pitching, we have plenty of it. DeJesus and/or Teahan would both be EXCELLENT fits on this ballclub in a variety of ways.

by djskilbr on Dec 18, 2006 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure about Cabrera's defense in CF

I've heard that Cabrera is potentially an average center fielder. But I don't have more to go on, since his only CF experience is in the minor leagues. Do you have any scouting reports or range stats from his minor league days?

I don't share Roger's source's optimism on Span. He has the tools to be an above average center fielder and base stealer, but he doesn't have the baseball instincts to do the job. You can't teach reaction times, first steps, reading pitchers' moves, or etc. Torii has these instincts, Denard does not. Not that Oeltjen is any great shakes either. But at least Roberts has shown the ability to play good defense and steal bases.

The Twins simply do not have legitimate starting outfield prospects above rookie ball. I could see a future outfield of Benson, Santiesteban and Parmalee, but that's four or five years away. So some kind of acquisition for a CF is in their future. There's a very slim chance of retaining Torii after 2007. That is a good reason to acquire someone like Cabrera now while he's still cheap. I would say go for it if I had more confidence in his defense.

The same problem exists at 3B, BTW. Jim Callis has recently said he doen't think the Twins 3B of the future is in the system. That was before the 06 draft, in which they acquired three of them. But Robbins is a natural first baseman. Olson has no power, and Valencia hasn't played above rookie ball yet.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 18, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Or

We could have a year or two of stop-gap center fielders like Kenny Lofton and Mike Cameron. I'd have no problem waiting for Roberts with two years of Cameron for 16 mil total.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 18, 2006 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

There's no...

...reason to think that Roberts is a sure thing. He doesn't hit for a great average, he doesn't walk a ton, and he doesn't hit for much power. In fact, he very well profiles as worse than Span at the plate. For instance, take their numbers in their age 21 season. It was Roberts' first year in the FSL and it was Span's first year in the FSL and in AA.

.293/.349/.355, 82 SO/36 BB -- Roberts
.307/.377/.369, 66 SO/44 BB -- Span

To me, Span looks like the better prospect between the two of them. Maybe Roberts has an edge on defense, but both of them look like marginal fourth outfielders in the major leagues no matter how long you wait.

by ubelmann on Dec 18, 2006 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Steals

I agree that Span is probably a little better hitter. But Roberts is a major league fielder and baserunner and I don't project Span ever getting there. I hope I'm wrong on that score, but history is litered with speed guys who never learned the nuances or instincts of the game.

The number one qualification for a CF is the glove, at least in this org, and Roberts is much better than Span in that area, at least from what I've read and heard.

And in this Market, Cameron will get more like $12 to $14 million a year, even with Torii and Andrew on the market.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 18, 2006 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Benson...

is the guy I'm really high on already. I have little doubt in my mind that we will eventually see a Parmelee-Benson-Kubel OF, and I'll be stoked when that happens. But as has been mentioned, that's a ways off. Need at least a stopgap 'til then. I've always liked the DeJesus thought if doable. It makes total sense time-wise too because he would get REALLY expensive around 2010 or so, when I bet Benson will be ready, and then, since he'll be a Beltran-lite by then, we can spin him for a great package.

by djskilbr on Dec 18, 2006 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

Cameron

I highly disagree that Cameron would get that much. Id expect the ratio between him and Lofton to remain the same. Lofton made 3.1 in 04 and 05 then 3.85 in 06, and Cameron averaged 5.0 in that time. This year, Lofton is making 6 mil, and Cameron 7 mil. I'd expect Lofton to make 6 or 7 mil next year, which means about 9 mil for Cameron.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 18, 2006 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

Disagree

If Cameron were a free agent this offseason, he would have received Juan Pierre or Gary Matthews money. He's significantly younger, faster and more powerful than Lofton. He's a better defender as well. The only reason he's stayed with Lofton moneywise this offseason is his $7 million option, which was set when Lofton was making $3 million a year. I don't know what the 08 market will bear, but it's not likely to go down. We're looking at three years and $36 to $40 million. Center fiedlers just are not affordable anymore.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2006 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

In my discussion...

...with my source from the Twins, he indicated that Span was also ahead of both Oeltjen and Roberts defensively.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 19, 2006 7:18 AM EST up reply actions

i

I'd rather explore that option late next season or after next season. That gives Cabrera a chance to prove last season wasn't a fluke. Right now with our rotation the way it is with young starters and all, we just need our starters to consistantly finish 5 innings and the game is in good hands. Why mess with that to get an insurance policy that might just be another version of Ford 2004?

by doofus04 on Dec 17, 2006 9:47 AM EST reply actions

Ford and Cabrera...

...aren't very comparable. In 2003 and 2004, Ford was having his age 27 and 28 seasons. There was every reason in the world to believe that those were going to be the best years of his career. Cabrera is a 22-year old who has always been a much better prospect than Ford.

Also, by the time Cabrera shows the Yankees he can repeat last season over and over again, his price tag goes up and there could be a lot more interest from other teams.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

Its an interesting idea but

It is my guess that TRyan has decided that he intends to keep all his bullpen assets and the sole remaining move in the offseason will be to sign RonDL or someone of similar ilk and go with what they have. I can't quite figure out why, in that most every move they make is ultimately determined by payroll considerations. Rincon will get somewhere between 2.5 and 3 MM (at a guess) as a 2nd time (4+ year service time) arb. case. They apparently don't want a Lieber for Rincon exchange accd. to the Strib today. I can't see them biting on Melky for Rincon either, though the money obviously makes more sense in the latter case. I think a year of RonDL will actually equate to M. Cabrera in 07, but down the road, obviously those career paths diverge.

I have said this a million times and I repeat it: The Twins are cheap. TRyan's opposition to spending money seems to be "the market is out of whack." Interesting assumption, when average payroll has, over the past several years, escalated at 10% per year. I did a back of the napkin analysis of AL payroll with the payrolls now under each team's control (as of last night) and find the following estimates:

Yankees: 194 MM+ with two or three holes left to fill (See: Mientkiewicz, Doug or Hillebrand, Shea)
Red Sox: 142 MM (right up near the luxury tax threshhold)
Angels: 96 MM
White Sox: 95 MM
Tigers: 93 MM (interesting. Must be the AL championship hangover effect, the White Sox are actually down in payroll this year, indicating Reinsdorf has cooled on spending big bucks...good news for us, I believe...I see a fire sale on their vet pitchers later in the year)
Mariners: approaching 90 MM
Orioles: 83 MM (proving even payroll doesn't keep you from being idiots, see also Mariners)
Blue Jays: 82 MM
Rangers: Depends on whether you include A-Rod's approximately 11 MM salary still owed by the Rangers. I did include it. 82 MM. If they land Zito, which I doubt...this will obviously escalate substantially.
Athletics: 74 MM depends a lot on several arb eligible cases...this is an estimate, but they're spending more this year. They were virtually identical to Twins in payroll last year, why can't the Twins go to 75 MM?
Twins: 65 MM if they sign RonDL for about 2 MM
Royals: 63 MM and apparently still on the hunt for pitching...
Indians: about 58 MM
and finally...the D Rays...under 25 MM (contraction anyone?)

The only big money free agents left would appear to be Zito, Suppan, Mulder (possibly), Ohka (who's gonna get big money), Weaver (ditto) and perhaps Clemens...then Floyd, M. Giles, Hillenbrand, Loretta, Belliard, Craig Wilson (the guy I think the Twins should sign), Huff and Trot Nixon are just about it. So...

I think it's RonDL and a cold cold January and February. Perhaps we're playing for 08 and that's not a bad idea, but it's goodbye Torii and Luis C. and where are we gonna get the CF replacement? So...Rincon for Melky? I'd think hard about it, then call the Phillies and see if they'd do Rincon for Rowand.

by HrbekIsMyHero on Dec 17, 2006 11:42 AM EST reply actions

All the smart GMs think...

...that this free agent market is whack. If you look around, you'll see that most of the smart teams are looking to improve their teams with trades and not paying the exorbitant prices for the mediocre free agents that were available this off-season. There have been some reasonable deals out there, but for the most part, it's been smart to stay away from this year's free agents.

And I can see why they wouldn't want to trade Rincon for Lieber--Jon Leiber's not very good any more. He'd probably make a passable fourth/fifth starter, but there's also a good chance that he'd be a complete dud.

Perhaps we're playing for 08 and that's not a bad idea, but it's goodbye Torii and Luis C. and where are we gonna get the CF replacement?

That's my main concern. I'd rather be proactive about getting a replacement for Torii, since he's an injury risk and might need replacing in the middle of the season, and he's probably going to be gone at the end of the season whether he gets injured or not. By that time, getting someone as good or better than Cabrera might wind up costing a lot more than Rincon.

I guess it's not so much that I'm totally in love with Cabrera, but rather that I think it's a good idea to be looking to find a long-term solution in CF right now. Cabrera just happened to show up in the rumor mill as available.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

I'm

I'm going to say, Cabrera has some reasons to think he'd be a decent guy to have, but I think this was mostly a knee jerk. That's just me.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 17, 2006 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Well, here's a thought...

what about Alex Rios? Olney's main report today is that he very well could be basically available now, since they need pitching and obviously locking Wells up.

I'm not sure if it's the case, but if it is, wouldn't a Rincon/Baker package make a LOT of sense? That frees up $3 million more for us to get a stopgap veteran starter (Armas? since Mulder is wanting a 2-year deal now) and also gives us a great LF option for this year while providing a great young CF option for next year. Oh, and did I mention that he's also a RH hitter?

I'd think that if the Jays are looking for a more veteran starter, then a 3-way deal could easily be explored. Say something with the Dodgers, for instance. Something like:

Rincon/Baker or other prospect to LA
Penny to Toronto
Alex Rios to us

I really like the thought at looking to the future for CF right now Ubelmann and am totally on board. I just really hope TR is at least exploring these Rios rumors. It makes all too much sense.

by djskilbr on Dec 17, 2006 5:18 PM EST reply actions

Oh, and...

just imagine what Torii's FA value has become next year now. The only other big CF available is Andruw Jones next year. Is it really that crazy to think Torii could get at least a 5 year-$75 million deal? I'm not so sure anymore. And heck, that might be on the low end.

by djskilbr on Dec 17, 2006 5:20 PM EST reply actions

That's why...

...I think it makes a lot of sense to try to deal Torii to someone who is looking to sign him long term, because we don't have the budget to make that a reasonable long-term option.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

Only

Only if we tank this year. This season we'll need him to make our repeat push.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 17, 2006 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

Not if...

...we get more value in return for Hunter than we give up. Just because we'd be trading for younger players doesn't mean we wouldn't be immediately improving the team. I'm convinced that Hunter's perceived value far outstrips his actual value.

by ubelmann on Dec 17, 2006 10:57 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think it matters...

if the Twins tank next year or not.

I think you have to look realistically at this fact: The Twins can't be able (read are unwilling) to afford Torii after this year. What does that mean to the club?

You have to start looking for options to replace him ASAP. Hell, if they were willing to do it, they could be well served by moving him now. My ideal would be this: trade for Melky/Rios/whomever. They play LF to start the season. Start working the phones. Before the trade deadline, move Torii - 3B/DH.

I like Torii. I think he's an awesome guy, but they are at the point where an aging center fielder should NOT take up the percentage of payroll that he does. It's simple math. The market/length of Carl's purse-strings have priced Torii out as a Twin.

by GACTwinFan on Dec 17, 2006 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather have Lieber

It has been widely reported that the Phillies will trade Lieber for an eighth inning reliever. The Yankees will trade Melky for the same thing. Between the two, I'd rather have Lieber for 07 to bridge the gap to '08. We can piece it together in left if necessary. We can deal center field in '08 when the time comes. But Lieber might be our only chance for a winning starting staff in '07.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 17, 2006 9:27 PM EST reply actions

Lieber

Rincon is no longer a viable 8th inning man, he's lost his edge. If we keep him I am very afraid he'll finish falling apart this year and he'll have no value left in him. I mean getting Lieber or Cabrera in return would be a smart move at this point. I mean what are we waiting for? Another draft pick? Crain/Neshek/Reyes can handle the job in the 8th, and we still have plenty of relievers to fill upwards. I also still believe people are overestimating what we'll need from the bullpen as compared to last year. Last year we had one 200 inning pitcher, this year we have a decent shot at three (Santana, Silva, Bonser).

break the 30 HR curse!... okay the 40 HR curse!!!!

by caseintheface on Dec 17, 2006 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Really? Have you actually looked at the numbers? He got a little shaky at the end, but he still turned in a very fine season.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 17, 2006 11:43 PM EST up reply actions

Rincon in 2006

What concerns me about Rincon also is the decrease in strikeouts and the increase in hits. Overall I think he's become way to hittable. Also, I say he's lost his edge because in the past he's been a terrific guy to get out of jams. When Gardy brought him on to do that this year, he often times gave up several hits before cleaning things up. The memories for me are sufficient but I can look up dates and incidents of inherited runners scoring if you like. My biggest point though I think, is that rising stars (Neshek and Crain and later DePaula and Mijares etc.) should more than make up for a decreasingly valuable Rincon, especially when we could get a valuable starter like Lieber or even a good prospect like Cabrera.

break the 30 HR curse!... okay the 40 HR curse!!!!

by caseintheface on Dec 18, 2006 12:12 AM EST up reply actions

Hits

Hits are largly a result of defense.

Also, Rincon was just as good as ever last year until the final two months. He sported a higher ERA in August and Spetembe, and also a much hihger H/9 rate. Had it not been for those two months, he would have come up with a similar H/9 rate to his usual one.

During that time at the end of the year, where his struggles where, he had injury concerns that he was working through and were affecting his performance. It was just a little lingering thing, and it's undoubtedly already gone with rest this off season.

It's also worth noting that Rincon improved his ground ball rate somewhat last year. While that will drive up H/9 slightly, it will also further reduce the power numbers he gives up and lead to more rally ending double plays.

T cap, Rincon's struggles last year came at the end of the season when he was trying to fight through small injury. I see no reason to believe he's losing any edge. As I said, his performance has put him in a rare group of set-up men, and another season with a sub-3 ERA, even with some shaky spots, isn't near enough to convince me he's losing it.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 18, 2006 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying

That Rincon had a terrible season. I understand he's put himself in a rare group of set-up men. What I'm saying is that he's shown some signs of regressing and I believe we have the relievers to start replacing his role and that we should get something of value in return for him while we still can. He has the ability and the smarts to even close games especially in the NL (like Gordon for instance, comparable pitchers except for the age factor).

break the 30 HR curse!... okay the 40 HR curse!!!!

by caseintheface on Dec 18, 2006 12:44 AM EST up reply actions

Injuries

A lot of Rincon's struggles late last year can be tied to his groin injury. He tried to come back too quick and was ineffective. Then Gardy tried to get him straightened out by taking him out of the eighth inning and using him in non-pressure situations. That just messed with his confidence. If he has a healthy spring and gets his head back on straight, he's still the best option for the eighth inning. He has closer stuff and consistency over his career. Whereas Crain has stuggled at times when he tries to be too fine, especially with the sinker. And Neshek really is vulnerable to left-handed hitters.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 18, 2006 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

Plus!

I still think Nathan can be called upon to do more. I saw a stat that ESPN's Buster Olney got from Elias Sports Bureau showing closers with the highest percentage of 1-2-3 innings (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster#20061217). Nathan tops that list at 47%. We saw a couple situations this year where Nathan was great when called upon for a multiple inning assignment (the win against Cleveland where he struck out 5 of the 6 batters he faced comes to mind). I don't see why the best closer in baseball can't be called upon a bit more when the situation warrants. So long as were not talking about 3 innings in the ALDS against the Yankees of course...

break the 30 HR curse!... okay the 40 HR curse!!!!

by caseintheface on Dec 18, 2006 12:21 AM EST up reply actions

we need

the bull pen to be bullet poof this year, don't mess with it. see what happens by July 31.

"hi everybody" Herb Carneal Hall of fame baseball announcer.

by firstatbat61 on Dec 17, 2006 10:28 PM EST reply actions

what did I miss?

Why isn't Kubel expected to be the LF any more?

by cooldude on Dec 18, 2006 2:18 PM EST reply actions

knees

Actually, you make a good point. We all have been laboring under an assumption based on one interview with Gardy in which he said he would play White in LF and DH Kubel. But if the Twins can't come to terms with White and Kubel's knees are healthy enough, he can play left just fine with a plus arm. If he can do that, it would give the Twins more options to sign or otherwise acquire a DH, such as Ryan Klesko or Ben Broussard.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 18, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

re: LF

It seems like, even if White signs and plays a lot of LF this year, Kubel would still be the longterm solution at that position. Presumably, and barring another injury, each year his knees will get stronger.

by cooldude on Dec 18, 2006 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

LF

I honestly think, if Kubel is healthy come Spring, he will be the everyday left-fielder. I think what TR and Gardy are spouting about White hitting better when playing the field is a load of guff, and they both know it. He hit better in the second half because he was healthy, not because he was playing LF. White may want to play the field but if he signs he will predominantly be a DH.

Right now, though, I am beginning to doubt he will sign because, with both Ford and Tyner offered arbitration, the Twins have 5 outfielders under contract. White knows this and perhaps negotations are stalled because he wants to play LF and he perceives that the Twins might want him just as a DH (as was the intention last year). I hope he does sign and becomes the everyday DH as I think the ideal outcome is having Kubel in LF and White at DH and Ford and Tyner sitting on the bench most days.

These largely incoherent thoughts were hurriedly scribbled down

by Victor @ Twinkie Town on Dec 18, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I'm okay...

...with letting Kubel stay at DH for this year. Give his knees the easiest load possible. I think his bat is good enough to play at any position, so I'd rather have him be healthy long term, and I think DH'ing this year might help.

by ubelmann on Dec 18, 2006 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Torii

As far as whats best for Torii, it would be better for him to give us a home town discount than to sign a bigger dollar contract somewhere else TO SOME DEGREE. In Minnesota he's "the face" of the franchise so to speak. In Texas or NY or Boston, he is just another player on the team. He probably gets better endorsement deals in Minn. I don't know cause I don't live there. And he definately gets more respect from the public at large then he will anywhere else. So for Torii to leave that better be an offer that just blows everything else away. A 5 year 65 million offer to stay here is probably better than a 5 year 75 million offer somewhere else when everything else is factored into it. Except maybe Texas since he lives in Dallas in the offseason.

by doofus04 on Dec 19, 2006 9:40 AM EST reply actions

Oof

I'd like someone who is offensively valuable to the team, please, for $13 mil a year. I think Hunter was borderline decent this year, and I have hope that he'll be valuable in another contract year in 2007. But I absolutely think he will be detrimental in every way to the Twins if he's here in 2008 and beyond. Hunter's time to go was last year. It was awesome, Torii...goodbye.

And if you didn't notice (listen closely), Ryan said as much in that Bremer interview on twinsball.com. When asked about extending Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, and Cuddyer, he remarked that not everyone of those, unfortunately, will get long-term contracts.

He then proceeded to state over the course of the interview how important it was to lock up Mauer and Morneua...and Cuddyer.

You can't dust for vomit.

by twinstalker on Dec 19, 2006 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Hunter

He's worth 12 Mil this year if Gary Matthews is worth 10 mil. But you're right, this is his last year with the Twins, and Ryan pretty much confirmed it in his chat. If we stumble out of the gate again, I wouldn't be surprised if we trade him to the highest bidder. But if he plays like he did when healthy last year and the Twins keep winning, he'll be spraying champagne with the rest of his teammates and we'll be content to get a first rounder for him through free agency.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2006 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

re: the chat...

you got a link cmath? i'd like to hear TR.

Thanks.

by djskilbr on Dec 19, 2006 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

It's on Twinsbaseball.com

Unfortunately, the link opens a new media player window, not a browser, so I'm not able to copy and paste it. But you should be able to find it in the middle of the page. The 45 minutes of insights into Ryan's thinking led to just about eveything I've written in the last week. So you decide if it's valuable.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2006 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

That's a specious argument

He's worth 12 Mil this year if Gary Matthews is worth 10 mil.

Gary Matthews isn't worth $10M/year, so that's really an irrelevant comparison.

One year contracts don't kill teams. One year of Hunter at $12M isn't so bad. Committing $70M over the next five years to Hunter could really hamper the Twins, though.

by ubelmann on Dec 19, 2006 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

The market

I don't think it's a specious argument. The market says a league average center fielder is worth $10 million a year. We'll be paying $12 million for Hunter. Hunter is above average in some ways. Ergo, he's worth $12 million in this market.

I agree that to try to sign him back in this market is foolish, especially with the number of years guys are getting.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2006 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

Say that I...

...go down to the dealership and pay $100,000 for a Ford Focus. That decision doesn't make the car any better or worse. I made a stupid decision to pay $100,000 for a car that just isn't worth that much money. Not only could I have purchased other cars for better prices, but I could look to the used car market rather than limiting myself to new cars.

Gary Matthews Jr. isn't worth $50M over 5 years any more than a new Ford Focus is worth $100,000. He's a corner outfielder stretched in center and he's a career .258 EQA hitter. That's a below average CF. The Angels made a mistake. Matthews isn't "worth" that money just because they made a stupid decision.

by ubelmann on Dec 19, 2006 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Not just Matthews

I don't think Matthews or Pierre are worth that price, certainly not to the Twins. But that isn't the point. The point is, how much will teams be willing to pay Hunter or Cameron or Jones after 2007? It certainly is a lot more than any of them are worth to a resonable person, but that is what the market demands. Hypothetically, if Ryan had bought out Hunter's option, he would have received much more than either Matthews or Pierre got in this market. Thus, relative to the market, Hunter's option is actually a pretty good deal. That was my point.

Relative to what the team can afford and what it is paying others, Hunter's contract seems absurd. But on the open market, Ryan must pay the going rate if he has no other alternative. The going rate is exhorbitant. So Ryan had little choice but to pay slightly below the going rate for Hunter, contrary to many claims in the past. Next year, he'll have even fewer choices.

In a market that only contains a few running cars and a lot of people with the money to pay what they have for them, many people would pay $100K for a Ford Focus. Cars don't have intrinsic value any more than players do. Their value is set by the laws of supply and demand. There happens to be a huge supply of cars and little demand for them, hence they're cheap. There's a tiny supply of CFs and a huge demand for them, thus they're expensive.

I don't understand what you're not getting here.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2006 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

That's just not the right way to look at it

Hypothetically, if Ryan had bought out Hunter's option, he would have received much more than either Matthews or Pierre got in this market. Thus, relative to the market, Hunter's option is actually a pretty good deal. That was my point.

Trying to judge a contract's value compared to stupid contracts is not a good way to judge value. Everything looks good compared to bad contracts. It's meaningless praise.

by ubelmann on Dec 19, 2006 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

Meaningless?

I wasn't praising Ryan. I was mearly pointing out that, in this market, he had little choice to do what he did. And he will have little choice to say goodbye to Hunter during or after the 2007 season.

This from The Boston Herald:

"Centers of attention

The market for center fielders projected to be quite strong following the 2007 season, and that is still true given the probable availability of Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter via free agency. Hunter had a $12 million option exercised by the Minnesota Twins in October but will be a free agent next November. Jones, meanwhile, is entering the final year of a six-year, $75 million contract that will pay him $13.5 million in 2007.

All of that makes the recent signing of Vernon Wells all the more noteworthy, and not because Wells, too, would have been a free agent after next season. Despite being under Toronto's control for one more year, Wells on Friday agreed to a seven-year, $126 million contract that will pay him an average of $18 million a season, the highest awarded any player during this offseason. In total dollars, only Alfonso Soriano's $136-million deal with the Chicago Cubs exceeded Well's deal.

And we repeat: Wells was not a free agent.

What does it all mean? While the 28-year-old Wells is younger than the 31-year-old Hunter, the two players have eerily similar numbers over the last five or six years. That would seemingly place the annual value for Hunter similarly in the range of $18 million a year while the 29-year-old Jones almost certainly will command a salary in the neighborhood of $20 million (or more) annually. "

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2006 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Hunter

I've said this elsewhere, but so long as the Dodgers are shopping Brad Penny for a 30-HR threat, I'd consider offering them Torii, and see what they think. Even if the AL treats Penny as badly as his former rotation mates Josh Beckett and Carl Pavano, he's signed for sub-market value for three more years, and he's durable. The Dodgers were reportedly seeking to package Penny with a prospect to get Vernon Wells before Toronto extended him; maybe they'd consider Penny straight up for Hunter.

I am concerned about the outfield depth as is, but I think with Penny in hand to help solidfy the rotation, it wouldn't be that difficult a problem to address. Particularly since it would then be easier to trade a young arm, and the Twins, if they chose, could be in the enviable position of acting as sellers in the pitching department. Outfielder names I've seen on the block for pitching include Rocco Baldelli, Ryan Church, BJ Upton, Alexi Rios, Coco Crisp... Some of these guys might not be that far off from replicating Hunter-type numbers, and in this pitching-crazed market you could probably get one of them without coughing up Garza.

by jianfu on Dec 19, 2006 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

I like the second thought...

but not the first. Getting a Rios/Dukes/Upton, etc. makes a ton of sense. But I wouldn't trade Torii for Penny straight up. If we could get another prospect (Laroche maybe) then sure, but Torii's worth more than Penny, especially for our club.

We only need a starter as insurance for THIS year only. In 2008 and beyond our rotation has virtually no worries. So Penny doesn't make a lot of sense.

And that's in addition to the fact that the Dodgers just threw a ridiculous amount of money to Pierre. I highly doubt they'd be thinking of Torii at this point.

To sum up, trading Torii makes a lot of sense, but I think it makes more sense to acquire a future 3b/CL/or even CF.

by djskilbr on Dec 19, 2006 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Center

The thinn with center field is, you don't wat to shove a guy like coco crisp out there and hope for the best because the defense is so importnat. I've come to realize very much over the last year how big a difference a good centerfielder can make for an eintire pitching staff. Assuming Torii returns to play like he did at the beginning of last year, it makes our entire staff a LOT better, and you don't want to weaken that for a single pitcher.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 19, 2006 8:53 PM EST up reply actions