Jason Jennings for Garza or Bonser?

by MagikLair on Dec 2, 2006 5:57 PM EST

Hello,
Just reading the Rocky Mountain News and read the following:

Minnesota has been the most consistent suitor for Jennings and has the potential to put together an interesting package of right-handed reliever Jesse Crain, who grew up in Boulder, and a young starter from a group that includes the likes of Matt Garza and Boof Bonser.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/mlb/article/0,2777,DRMN_23924_5185641,00.html

I hope they aren't considering trading either Matt Garza and Boof Bonser. Perhaps Baker, but not these fellows. What does everyone else think?

MagikLair

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Yeah

I wouldn't give up Crain and one of those guys. Rather just stick them both in the rotation. I might do Crain and Baker, or Perkins, or maybe Slowey, but then the Rockies might not do it, which is fine.

Might try to bring in Tomo Okha, who was not offered arbitration by Milwaukee.

by Eric in Madison on Dec 2, 2006 6:49 PM EST reply actions

I

I expect Bonser and Garza to probably each be as good this year as Jennings.

This isn't true. Ryan isn't stupid. He's not trading either of these guys, especially Bonser.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 2, 2006 7:07 PM EST reply actions

Garza

Garza hasn't proven he's a real smart pitcher yet, but in two years he'd probably win a Cy Young award in the National League. The problem Ryan has is that we have all this great talent and when we start up trade talks, everybody wants it. Usually nothing gets done because other GM's don't want to settle for our "lower" talent which is usually still very good and major league ready too. I don't know... maybe Ryan has to make one bad deal eventually so other GM's aren't so afraid of being caught with the next Pierzynski trade.

break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Dec 3, 2006 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

No Deal

Why give up that kind of talent, which will contribute next year, for ONE year of Jennings?

I am not sure I would even do Crain for Jennings even up.

I still wonder about Hunter. I don't see how we can give him a long term contract at amount the market will provide considering his age. So he will be traded this summer anyway.

Why not use Hunter to trade for some pitching now???

by RJTWIN on Dec 2, 2006 9:47 PM EST reply actions

Hunter

Because the best couple replacement options are gone now, so he's here.

Honestly, the thing to do, if we'd wanted to would be not excercise Hunter's option, saving 10 mil, not take back Silva, saving abut 4 mil, and when spend 6 of those million o David roberts (that's what he got on the contract he just signed) and use the remaining 8 million to sign a higher level pitcher.

Not that I'm saying we should, but Hunter is here for the whole year unless we bomb. We'll need him to win the way things are now.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 3, 2006 4:33 AM EST up reply actions

Right...

I'm one of the biggest supporters of Jennings. I love the guy...

BUT....

you absolutely do not give up Garza. The kid was just named the minor league pitcher of the year!!! You have him under control for 6 years cheaply. You absolutely keep him.

And I'm not sweating this either because we all know that if there's one thing Terry Ryan is not, it's dumb.

by djskilbr on Dec 3, 2006 12:37 PM EST reply actions

Rumored Trade

Ruesse indicated that the propsed deal by Colorado was Crain and either Garsa, Slowey, or Perkins. We said no, and countered with Rincon and either Baker or Durbin.

I thought both of those deals were un doable - bcause they were lopsided one way or the other. Needs to be more balanced. So perhaps their is a Hybrid deal - somehting like Rincon and Perkins or baker an Perkins??? or perhaps somebody else like adding Ford or Romero to the mix??? (ya I know neither of these players has much overall value, but there are few other names on the 40 man roster I could see trading)

With those mix of players, it just seems like there isn't a quite balanced value - either we get ripped off or the Rockies do. I am 99% sure Ryan won't get ripped off.

by bobio on Dec 3, 2006 3:32 PM EST reply actions

Hybrid Deal

Colorado needs a also needs a centerfielder. Why can't these two small market teams get together and really help each other out? Colorado includes Jennings and Ian Stewart filling two of our needs. We include Rincon/Crain (I would rather go with Rincon because he's definetly lost something and moving to the National League would probably help him out), Baker/Simonitsch and Span. And if that isn't enough we could probably include another one of our minor league relievers.
This would be a deal that could easily benefit both sides. What do you guys think?

break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Dec 3, 2006 5:00 PM EST reply actions

If they won't do

Rincon/Baker for Jennings, adding Span and Stewart to the deal doesn't make it any more palatable for the Rockies--Stewart is the more valuable property. It just makes it worse for them.

I'm not sure there's a deal that's makable here, though I would consider Perkins and Rincon/Crain. Actually, one possibility would be Rincon/Perkins/Span for Jennings and Jeff Baker. I might do that. I might even sub in Crain for Rincon and Slowey for Perkins if they prefer.

by Eric in Madison on Dec 3, 2006 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

This...

is exactly the deal I have proposed. Jeff Baker should be the target to me. He is a good, young guy who can play both 3b and LF, and he hasn't had either the success of Atkins or the high prospect status of Stewart. I'd do Crain/Rincon, Baker/Perkins, and Span, Ford in a heartbeat for a Jennings/Baker package.

I think that really does help both teams.

It'll be interesting to see what can be done. I also really would like to see something get done with the Dodgers. They have an abundance of players capable of playing 3b, OF, and SP, and need upper-shelf relief pitching. I'd think a deal could be made.

by djskilbr on Dec 4, 2006 2:31 AM EST up reply actions

Jeff Baker

I've heard his name before, what's his story? Potential power corner? What kind of stats is he putting up at which levels?

break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2006 2:57 AM EST up reply actions

He...

got a taste of the big leagues last year, playing mostly in the OF (because of Atkins) and hit very well.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5371

It is obviously a very limited sample size, but all reports are that the kid can hit, and should hit in the future. He's had some injury problems in the past, and really is excess for Colorado at this point. Not that they'll let him go for peanuts, but they certainly don't NEED him. Just like we don't NEED Rincon/Crain or Perkins/Baker.

Here's some minor league stats and a brief scouting report on him as well:

http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Jeff_Baker/

I personally love the guy and would love to have him on the Twins. A trade for Jennings and him, and a signing of Rondell back and a good bench guy or two would go a LONG way towards helping this team. I'd still love to move Castillo ideally for a bigger stick or other needs as well given this market, but I'm not sure that happens. But this is certainly a team I could live with:

Castillo-2b
Mauer-C
Cuddyer-RF
Morneau-1b
Hunter-CF
Kubel-LF/DH
White-DH/LF
Baker-3b
Bartlett-SS
Bench: Redmond, Punto, Tyner, 2 more bats from FA

Staff:
Santana, Jennings, Garza, Bonser, Silva (Slowey/Perkins backing up)
Nathan, Rincon/Crain, Neshek, Reyes, Guerrier, Perkins/Durbin

by djskilbr on Dec 4, 2006 3:09 AM EST up reply actions

For Sure

Stewart's nice to think about but even though he's not performing at a really high level yet, he's probably still Colorado's best prospect. Although I'll be curious to see if they move him from the hot corner with the break out of Adkins. Baker would definetly be more gettable and from his brief stint up last year looks like he's excited to make an impression. Hopefully if he's available Ryan will jump on him as opposed to letting a similar hitter in (Ryan Shealy) fall into the hands of another team (Royals...cough...cough...nice pickup).

Git'er Done

break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2006 3:20 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly...

I'm still bitter about that one. We could have easily beat that weak package for Shealy and he would have slotted in VERY nicely on this team.

by djskilbr on Dec 4, 2006 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Minor league

#'s seem to be aided by a high BAIP.

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 4, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

link

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/425/425557.html

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 4, 2006 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

BABIP...

...is a skill for hitters. Some hitters are good at getting hits on balls-in-play and some aren't. High/low BABIP's generally aren't all that reproducible for pitchers, though.

The bigger problem is that he put his numbers up at Colorado Springs, which has a lot of the same park-adjustment problems that you get for Coors Field.

by ubelmann on Dec 4, 2006 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

To be clear...

I don't think he'll be a worldbeater, but I do think that he can be a pretty darn capable 3b or LF (preferably 3b) for 2-3 years for us, and cheaply, until hopefully one of Winfree/Robbins/Valencia can slot in for us.

by djskilbr on Dec 4, 2006 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

but .340 seems high and yes I think it's a skill for hitters too.

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 4, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

Not that high...

Mauer hit about .360 on balls-in-play over his entire minor league career. That's pretty high, but was clearly a sustainable level of performance for him. I have Baker down at .369 BABIP over the course of his minor league career (1331 AB) and I have him at .361 last year. In that context, it doesn't look all that fluky to me.

PECOTA had Baker projected as a .252/.317/.441 (in a neutral park) hitter in the major leagues last year. Following a typical age curve (and noting that he did nothing this year to make us especially skeptical), .265/.330/.475 seems like it would be a reasonable projection for what he could do in a neutral park as a 26-year old in 2007. That's basically what Cuddyer did as a 26-year old (in 2005), except Cuddyer had less power (.263/.330/.422). That's probably about the caliber of prospect we're talking about here.

by ubelmann on Dec 4, 2006 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

so i'm curious...

are you in favor, or not in favor of baker, ubelmann?

by djskilbr on Dec 4, 2006 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

If Baker...

...is basically Cuddyer II, which it kind of seems like, then sure. Cuddyer's a cheap, league average corner OF, and there's plenty of value in that.

It all depends on what we'd be giving up for Baker. I don't like to spend a whole lot of time pondering what I might give up for Baker, because there are so many factors and permutations of players that might be acceptable, and also because acquiring any one particular player by trade is kind of unlikely, but I think there are scenarios where it could be possible for the Twins and Rockies to do a win-win trade where the Twins acquire Baker.

I'm not that excited about acquiring Jennings at this point. I've heard his name attached to a few more teams now, and I just think that someone is going to overpay and out-bid the Twins. If TR is in serious negotiations with Baker, likes him, and the Rockies think they have a glut of corner guys, I could see TR maybe doing a side deal for Baker alone. Again, though, that has maybe like a 5% chance of happening, if that.

The main point, I guess, is that there are guys like Baker out there. The idea of trading middle relief (or something) for a guy like Baker is a good one, because it's generally a good idea to trade from strength to address positions of weakness. And right now, the Twins have a ton of depth in the bullpen and very little depth at the corners. (Heck, think about the nightmare that would happen if Morneau gets injured. We've really got zero good options at first base if that happens. Improving the depth at the corners should be a priority.)

by ubelmann on Dec 4, 2006 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

Honestly...

...if I'm TR, and Colorado calls me up, and asks for Crain AND Garza or Bonser in exchange for Jennings, I'd hang up on them. That's an insulting offer.

Bonser was better than Jennings last year. He's also cheaper, and under team control for much longer.

Matt Garza was the Minor League Pitcher of the Year last year. While I don't think that necessarily makes him the very best pitching prospect out there, having him under team control for the next five years or so is a hell of a lot more valuable than one year of an innings eater.

Trading Bonser OR Garza in a straight-up trade for Jennings would make a terrible deal for the Twins. Including Crain would make it highway robbery. If that's the starting point on discussions, the discussions might as well end before they start.

by ubelmann on Dec 3, 2006 6:21 PM EST reply actions

It is a terrible deal

That's why TR should at least bring up Ian Stewart to bring Colorado back down to earth

break the 30 HR curse!

by caseintheface on Dec 3, 2006 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

he's gone...

Jennings To Houston
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6265388
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Astros have acquired Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio from the Rockies. In return, the Rockies will get Willy Tavarez, Jason Hirsh, and Taylor Buchholz. Apparently Kenny Williams wasn't lying when he said there was nothing to the rumor that the White Sox were going to acquire Hirsh and company for Jon Garland.

by MagikLair on Dec 12, 2006 5:26 PM EST reply actions