Will we ever see power from Mauer???

by BD57 on Apr 18, 2006 11:24 PM EDT

Don't get me wrong, I like Joe's game ...

But I'm beginning to believe we're never going to see the 30+ HR years we've been told would come as he gained experience, etc.

Then you look at his career "scatter" chart @ the Dome & you see: balls on the ground predominantly to the right side (when he gets fooled & is out in front) and balls in the air (flyouts, doubles & homeruns) predominantly to the left side.

You see much the same thing when Joe fouls a pitch off - rarely does it go straight back, it's almost always towards third, indicating he's late on the pitch.

Big-time HR hitters aren't typically late on pitches - to hit the ball out of every park (including Yellowstone), they pull the ball (hard).

Go to MLB.com and look at the scatter charts for Bonds,Pujols, David Ortiz, Griffey, (fill in name of power hitter here) - while they can hit it out of any part of any park, they typically do so by pulling the ball.

That doesn't mean Joe is a failure, or that I'm predicting failure - he looks like he might well become the Wade Boggs of catchers, and that sort of career would make him a Hall of Famer.

It just won't make him a 30+ HR a year guy.

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Well...

...tomorrow's Mauer's birthday, and he'll be all of 23. If it does come, power usually comes later, so it wouldn't be all that surprsing for it to even take a couple more seasons for his power to come.

One of the players most statistically similar to Mauer is Joe Torre. From ages 22 to 25, Torre hit 14, 20, 27, and 36 home runs. That's to say it'll happen for sure for Mauer, just that there's some precedent for these things taking time.

Also, I would say that to characterize Mauer's swings as "late" isn't quite fair. If he's looking to take the ball the other way on a fastball, then it's easier for him to adjust if it turns out a change-up or curve is coming his way. I think if Mauer was to focus on pulling the ball more right now, he would sacrifice his average, and I don't know that the sacrifice would really be worth it.

It'll be interesting to see how he develops, though.

by ubelmann on Apr 19, 2006 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

development is the key

Like many, I'm concerned that the Twins have a hitting philosophy that basically tries to turn every hitter into Rod Carew - even the guys who'd be better off trying the "Harmon Killebrew" suit on.

Morneau is an example of this. Justin's a big, strong kid, someone whose future is going to be hitting the long ball.

Homeruns are born in the inner half of the plate. Sure, you can hit it out the opposite way, but the big HR hitters get the ball in close, get the bathead out in front & pull the stuffing out of the ball.

But all last year, Morneau seemed to be off the plate like he was trying to be George Brett & hit everything up the middle. Do that and the only ball he's going to pull hard is the one WELL inside; anything else & all he does is hit soft rollers to the right side.

Seems to me a guy like Morneau should move in on the plate, which effectively make 3/4 or more of the plate the "inside half" and pull the heck out of the ball.

stay off the plate and try to drive everything up the middle, taking the HR's where they come.

BUT NOT

Stay off the plate and try to pull the ball.

by BD57 on Apr 19, 2006 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Morneau

No doubt the Twins seem to try to force all of their prospects into their cookie cutter mold, and guys like Morneau and David Ortiz hit best when they aren't trying to be someone they aren't.

However, I don't Mauer is being especially hindered by the Twins' hitting philosophy, at least for the moment. He seems to have a classic line drive swing, which isn't necessarily conducive to hitting for a ton of power. Someone earlier compared Mauer without power to Wade Boggs, and even if Mauer never changes his current approach, I think it's within his power to hit for Boggs' career line of .328/.415/.443, which would be really valuable.

by ubelmann on Apr 19, 2006 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Early Season Panic

A lot of people are panicking about things two weeks into the season.

White, Mauer's power, etc. People need to calm down a little. Those are the tings we need to worry about far less. We should be much more worried about the poor play of Radke and Silva, Crain's falloff, Batista hitting fourth today, our minor leaguers being stunted, etc.

Did I mention we should worry about Radke and Silva becuse both wer edeline risks?

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 19, 2006 12:47 AM EDT reply actions

this isn't new to this year

The scatter charts I'm looking at are lifetime at the Dome, and the comment is one part "this is what we've seen before" and one part "Look at what happened to Ortiz after the Red Sox told him to stop that situational hitting crap & start hitting the snot out of the ball".

Looking at Mauer, I suspect he has the ability to hit 30 plus - my bigger question is "Will he ever develop those skills playing for the Twins?"

by BD57 on Apr 19, 2006 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Hitting the other way

I agree with Ubelmann's point that looking to pull the ball will sacrifice his average. We have a Long-ball, pull the ball threat in J.Mo. But, he is not going to be hitting anywhere near .300 in a season. I think the thing about Joey is that he is a great opposite field hitter. Pitchers have a choice...throw him outside and accept the fact that he will drop singles and doubles 2 to 3 times per 7 plate appearances, or...throw him inside and have him slap doubles off the baggy or homers over it.

I will take singles and doubles all day...and if he never hits 30, I don't care.

by mbennett on Apr 19, 2006 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

Scouting Report

I figured that Mauer's power numbers would come when the league figures out how dangerous it is to pitch him outer half. Eventually pitchers will notice those ABs like the one against Mariano Rivera. Then he'll see more pitches inner-half and get more pitches to put over the baggie. For now, he's doing well taking what the pitchers are giving him.

It's taking a lot longer than I expected. That or he prefers hitting outer half then making a move to turn on those belt-high hanging curveballs.

by TheMattWilke on Apr 19, 2006 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

He wants to hit for power, but he won't start pulling outside pitches and getting himself out to do it. So far pitchers would rather pitch him away and give up hits than risk putting one in his pull zone. As long as they do, he'll hit a couple of opposite field homers a month. When they start throwing inside, look out, because he's bigger and stronger than Morneau.

Some people look at raw numbers and say, "He can't hit for power..." as though players should be good enough to hit however they like. The only guy I know like that is Vlad Guarrero. Most hitters have to do the best they can with what the pitchers will give them. I have no complaints about Mauer's approach.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Apr 19, 2006 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Even Vlad...

...I would say isn't necessarily going to be as productive if he tries to change his approach to be really patient. To a certain extent, he needs to be aggressive.

It's tough to say how well anyone can do if you start tinkering with their approach.

by ubelmann on Apr 19, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I think I'm going with...

...a flaw in the organization. There's a reason we haven't developed a power hitter in 20 years and it's not just bad luck.

(Well nearly 20, I'm rounding for emphasis.)

by MNPundit on Apr 19, 2006 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

legitimate question

I think Mauer's lack of power is a legit concern on a team that sorely lacks it and for a player that is expected to be the #3 hitter for the foreseeable future. Mauer emerged the hero in Saturday's game for that slap to left, but I would prefer if he would have driven in some runs earlier in the game to put it away. He's young, but I see a #2 hitter right now, not a run producer.

And, just to head off certain comments, I do believe that batting order and RBI are important, even though I realize they have been overrated in the past. Just because they have been shown to be overrated does not mean they are not vital to a team's success.

by wcooley on Apr 19, 2006 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

Okay

Let's envision two hypothetical futures for Mauer (keeping in mind that so far in his young career, his line is .297/.373/.435):

A) No power development, hits .315/.390/.450 through his prime.

B) Develops more power, but average and walks suffer while taking more swings for the fence, hits .292/.360/.500 through his prime.

So, line B looks like it might be a little better as a #3 hitter, but line A looks like probably the best #2 hitter in the league. If batting order is important (and I'd say it is), then I guess I'd rather take a catcher who's the best #2 hitter in the league rather than a catcher who's a solid #3 hitter. If Mauer's just the best #2 hitter in the league, then the Twins should just go find a #3 hitter elsewhere to drive him home. After all, you can't drive home runners that aren't on base.

by ubelmann on Apr 19, 2006 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

you do ...

when you hit it out of the park. ;)

by BD57 on Apr 19, 2006 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

They have that best #3 hitter...

...unfortunately, they just sent him to Rochester rather than letting him play. Rochester is currently in the bottom of the 10th, tied 5-5. Kubel is 2 for 5 with a double, run scored and rbi.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Apr 19, 2006 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Good question

But you're assuming the Mauer could change his swing and try to hit for more power, which I'm not sure is possible. And you make it sound far too easy for the Twins to "just go find a #3 hitter elsewhere." They've been looking for one since Puckett retired and still haven't found one.

My ideal #3 hitter:
.318 .360 .477, averaged 18 homers and 98 rbi's (Puckett)
My ideal #2 hitter:
.289 .378 .406, averaged 9 homers and 61 rbi's (Knoblauch)

Mauer might end up with stats that look closer to Knobby's or other second basemen with pop.

by wcooley on Apr 19, 2006 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

#2 and #3

I think we're seeing the potential for Mauer to be the #2 guy and Jason Kubel to be the #3.

Will the Twins develop a speedster (Casilla, Span) for leadoff?

Does Trevor Plouffe fiot into the future mix?

Is there any power to be had in the system (I still vote that Restovich got a raw deal).

Future: Morneau, Garrett Jones, Erik Lis, Henry Sanchez.
2nd Casilla, Maza
SS Trevor
3B Winfree/Moses
OF Span, Romero
DH Deeds, G Jones, Matienzo
C Mauer

by twintown on Apr 20, 2006 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Mauer

Mauer will get older and stronger I think and will start to hit wiht more power the other way, like Hunter (Hunter' best power in up the middle and the other way).

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 20, 2006 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

It might not happen

I think BD's comment is pretty much right on.

I can't speak for Mauer's high school career (though Gleeman, who saw him play against his own school, possibly could), but his minor league career shows very little power - in over 1000 minor league plate appearances, Mauer has exactly 9 minor league home runs. The nine homers Mauer hit last season is already nearly double his minor league rate.

While PECOTA likes to compare Mauer to guys like Johnny Bench, it's worth pointing out that Bench hit 22 homers in one season at A ball, then hit another 23 the following year in AAA (according to The Baseball Cube). Even Benito Santiago, Mauer's best comp of-age using the older Similarity Scores method, hit 16 in one year in A ball and 17 two years later in AAA. (Santiago, for the record, has only once hit more than 18 HRs in a single big-league season.)

Given changes in ballpark architecture, bat construction, and such since the 60s and 80s, it's not impossible that Mauer might routinely hit anywhere from 15-20 HRs a year, with a rare run at 25-30. Expecting he'll hit even 25+ regularly is probably wishful thinking, though.

by dwintheiser on Apr 20, 2006 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Not that I necessarily disagree...

...about Mauer, if you're going to criticize Mauer's PECOTA projection, you might as well bother to look who PECOTA actually is comparing Mauer to. Bench is nowhere on the comparison, and neither is Santiago.

In fact, if you actually look at Mauer's forecast, even in PECOTA's very best case scenario, they have Mauer hitting 19 HRs this year (And that's in 600+ PA). So it's pretty unfair to characterize PECOTA as expecting a bunch of power from Mauer.

by ubelmann on Apr 20, 2006 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

hangover

I'm guessing today's performance will not do much for his power numbers as he appears to be hungover from his birthday party and even tried to bunt once.

by wcooley on Apr 20, 2006 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

It's hard for me to tell. ..

if this thread is funnier than last year's "let's make Mauer a third baseman" or not.

by Firpo Marberry on Apr 20, 2006 7:01 PM EDT reply actions

How is this funny?

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little f'd up maybe, but it's funny how, I mean funny like it's a clown, it amuses you? It makes you laugh, it's here to f'n amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How is it funny?

by wcooley on Apr 20, 2006 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions