From Opening Night to Opening Day

by ubelmann on Apr 3, 2006 4:07 AM EDT in News

The only thing that really helped mitigate the White Sox' win last night for me was that it was a Cleveland loss, and Cleveland is quite possibly the better team in the first place.

But, now that we're past the first game, we get a nearly full slate of thirteen games today. Either MLB hates Canada or it hates the Twins, because the Blue Jays and the Twins will be the last teams to open the season, as they don't get to play today. The season won't feel like it's really started until the Twins play, but until then, games that count will do quite nicely.

Some notes on the first day's scheduled action:

I'm intrigued by the Brandon Webb vs. Jason Jennings matchup at Colorado. Webb is one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball, the sort of guy you might think would be great in Colorado. Guys with good breaking balls seem to complain that they don't break as well in Colorado. I wonder if the same thing is true for pitches that sink. Because if it is, and pitchers just can't get movement on their pitches in Colorado, it seems like a lost cause for Colorado to ever assemble a reasonably good pitching staff.
Just how bad is the Royals' pitching staff? Scott Elarton is their opening day starter, and PECOTA forecasts him to be roughly 2 runs below replacement level this year. The implication being, of course, that the Royals were so inept at assembling a pitching staff, that they couldn't get a single pitcher who can be at least replacement level. In actuality, it has more to do with the Royals thinking that Elarton is better than he actually is. I feel for Royals fans in a late-90s Twins fan sort of way.
In a similar vein, although Aaron Harang had a pretty nice season last year, and figures to be a decent pitcher, I think it's a bad sign for your pitching staff when he's headed out to the mound for opening day.
I like the Yankees-A's matchup as the best matchup of the day. Each team has a legit chance to win their division, heck, a legit chance to win the ALCS, and a Zito vs. Johnson pitching matchup is mighty tasty. This could be a preview of Game 1 of the ALCS.

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White Sox notes

Strange game last night. A few observations:

*Thome looks in the best shape in several years. No worries about the elbow. Man was that an awsome sight to see him mash that pitch for the third longest homer in Comerica history and the longest in two years.

*We'll see how Anderson copes with pressure in center. He looked OK last night.

*Pierzinski is getting fat. All the partying seems to have gone to his head, literally.

*The Indian' bullpen is predictably horrid. Shaprio has committed one of the classic blunders. The first is never enter into a land war in Asia. But only slightly less well known is the need to stock pile experienced arms in the bullpen. trading your three best set-up men is just plain stupid.

*The Indians outfield is weak. Casey Blake is an affront to right fielders everywhere. And Jason Michaels is mediocre.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Apr 3, 2006 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

Bullpen

"But only slightly less well known is the need to stock pile experienced arms in the bullpen."

I wouldn't say you need experienced arms in the bullpen, just good ones. In recent years, the Twins have gotten really good results out of converted shortstops, converted starters, and various retreads in the bullpen. Good relief pitching comes in all sorts of sizes and shapes. I must say that I haven't looked into the Indians' bullpen much this year, but last year it was a big strength for them, and losing three guys from that 'pen would seem to make it worse.

"And Jason Michaels is mediocre."

I don't know if I'd go that far. Over the last two years, Michaels has had a park-adjusted OBP of about .375, and that's nothing to scoff at, even if he doesn't have a ton of power. And seeing as he has the ability to play centerfield, he probably has decent range in LF, while giving the Indians a viable backup for Sizemore in CF when Grady needs a day off. Not your traditional left fielder, but he seems like a valuable player to me.

"We'll see how Anderson copes with pressure in center. He looked OK last night."

I don't know about coping with pressure, but Rowand was one of the most important guys for Chicago last year, so he's got a lot to replace to help keep the White Sox run prevention where it was last year.

by ubelmann on Apr 3, 2006 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh yeah....

Thome scares me. The only way he's not a huge addition to that offense is if he misses a lot of time with injury or if he's playing injured. Giving up Rowand for Thome seemed like a classic value-for-value trade to me, but with the big risk being Thome's ability to stay healthy.

It's just a good thing that Rick Reed doesn't pitch for us anymore:

Thome vs. Rick Reed, career

AB H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP SH SF AVG OBP SLG 25 12 1 0 9 3 0 7 0 0 0 .480 .536 1.600

When you hit 9 home runs off of a guy in 25 at-bats, you don't need a bigger sample size to figure out that you own him.

by ubelmann on Apr 3, 2006 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Reed and the indians bullpen

You had to bring up that guy while I'm eating. :-) I remember going to a game in which Thome hit two dingers and two warning track shots off Reed. Scary stuff.

The Indians are two full arms worsein their bullpen than last year. Mota replaces Howry, assuming Mota stays healthy. But they will miss Rhodes and Riske. Riske was their long man, and it apears they'll try to give that job to Cabrera. He looked awfull last night. Ideally, Wedge would have brought in Rhodes to face Thome. No chance there. And Wickman is about done. Last year he labored through an effective season, by the miracle of Carl Willis' magic elixer (phlegm). But I'd be shocked if they made it through another year with him staying healthy. The indians remind me of the 2004 edition, when their bullpen blew 28 saves. Most of the blown saves came because Wickman was hurt for most of that year. He got hurt because he had to carry too much of the load. Last year, Shapiro signed Howry and acquired Rhodes and the team only blew 8 saves. Twenty extra blown saves is a lot to overcome.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Apr 3, 2006 2:51 PM EDT reply actions