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A Bucket of COLD Spit (now with actual analysis)

My last diary was a fantasy post. I was honestly surprised by the response. So I tried a little harder and looked at the teams we might realistically consider trading Hunter to and what we could get from them in return which I determined to be middle-infield (2B/3B Castillo is awesome but he is not a part of a 2 year rebuilding effort and free Bartlett) or maybe bullpen help. I looked around for teams who are 1) contending or about to contend in the next 2-3 years and 2) teams that need a center fielder 3)teams that are freespenders or with low-payroll

If a team is not about to contend in a few years, I'm not sure how much they'd want Torii and his salary since he is in his prime now and for the next few years (unless they want him to pacify the fanbase).

A note: I don't know much about what are in the respective teams minor league systems except the Twins so I'm focusing on the major league rosters. Also, because of our spotty record with call-ups I'd prefer having someone who already has been introduced to the major leagues.

In the AL those teams turned out to be the Mariners and the Angels. More below the fold, if I can get the extended sections to work right...

Star-divide

Anaheim
I don't see anyone in the major league system that the Twins could covet at at either middle infield, 3B, or bullpen except [Erick] Aybar at 2B but dowe really want to give Gardenhire another highly-touted prospect to screw with? I shudder to think of the Aybar carnival that would quickly set up shop at 2B next to the Bartlett one in the middle-infield. Of course, Aybar has performed well for the Angels in limited playing time so maybe that kind of thing would make Gardy smile. Did Aybar go to winterball?

Seattle
Jose Lopez at 2B, in the same number of MLG games (54) as last year he is slugging .100+ higher, but his OBP despite being up from last year's is a subpar .312. His minor league OBP numbers fluctuate wildly at first glance. His SLG number is also closer to his minor league norm so perhaps he needed to get aclimated.

George Sherill is a lefty with more strikeouts than innings and walks at the minor league level with some concern over walks (11BB to 19SO in the sample size of 16IP) at the majors. Still maybe if Anderson can work with him on his control and avoid teaching him a sinker, he could return to his consistently low walk totals of the minor leagues. Does Seattle see itself as a team that can contend in the next 2-3 years?

Now it's time to take a look at a league I know less about, the NL.

NL West
Giants
A wash as far as I can tell.

Rockies
They started out hot so maybe they're hoping this is their chance to win. Both Rockies CFs, Freeman and Sullivan are sub-par offensively (and at Coors no less) but seem adequate defensively at first glance. In this trade the Twins would likely target Garrett Atkins (3B). Looking at his park-adjusted stats on Baseball Reference he still looks to be better than anything we've got at 3B now. Moreover, the Rockies went down in payroll from opening day 2005 to 2006 by about 7 million dollars. That is in the ballpark to Hunter's salary, and he would bring theirs up to about $50 million.

I have a hard time believing that the Rockies would give up 27 year old hitting-his-prime Atkins, who hits lefties and righties pretty well, and whose batting average is actually higher on the road, for Hunter. Perhaps if the Twins sweeten the deal with Baker but I label this one as barely possible.

Padres
Between Cameron and Roberts you have the makings of one good Centerfielder. They might combine in Hunter, but what would they do with Cameron/Roberts? Moreover the infielders likely targetted here would be Mark Bellhorn (using infielder loosely!) or Geoff Blum who is 33. Padres are out.

Dodgers
At nearly $100 million payroll it's going to have to be a blockbuster trade to send Torii to the Dodgers. Moreover, despite having played in only 33 games, Kenny Lofton seems to be doing about as good as Hunter. No deal.

Diamondbacks
Eric Byrnes is on fire right now with an OPS north of .950. There is no way.

NL East
Mets
Carlos Beltran means we move right along to the Braves.

Braves
Andruw (drew-wuh?) Jones means we shimmy on over to the Phillies.

Phillies
Aaron Rowand + 90 million payroll means its trime to truck over to the Guzman-less Nationals.

Nationals
With an opening day payroll of $63mil and a CF whose offense is about 70 points below Hunter's (even after a park justment that is a definite problem) and who is a downgrade even after park adjustment and you have a recipe for a possible trade. If only Nick Johnson played 3B.

Other Nationals possibilities are Jose Vidro and Ryan Zimmerman (3B). Now Vidro made $7,000,000 the last two years and he is still only 29. However, he might be too high profile a target to let go...

Zimmerman is 22, blew through Single A, and played 63 games in while posting a .850 OPS in AA before being bumped up to the big club in a late season call up (I assume) where he proceeded to suffer little decline in his offensive skills. Now with the Nationals in all of 2006, he has sunk down to a .784 OPS with a .450 SLG while playing in their pitcher's park. He hits better on the road than at home (by a decent margin) though the last couple of games he's gone through a slump.

If Washington were looking to win the next couple years (and they might, I'm not sure what their plan is) I'd target Zimmerman and hope that he keeps his numbers up in the more hitter-friendly Metrodome despite the league transition because I think he'd be worth more here than in the Nationals home-park. However he is still young and who knows what our system will do to him?

Marlins
Well I already got bruised on that one, didn't I? Besides they're rebuilding. Maybe if I give them a turkey sandwich Miguel Cabrera will come to Minnesota?

Next time? The NL Central!

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Some interesting possibilities
Of those teams, the Angels strike me as the most likely possibility.  The Halos have two top middle-infield prospects to go along with Aybar in the forms of SS Brandon Wood and 2B Howie Kendrick.  That's three guys for two positions, so unless the Angels plan to have one of them play another position, they are in good position to deal one.  I doubt they will want to part with Wood or Kendrick, so Aybar might be the most likely candidate. Plus, in dealing with the Angels, perhaps we could get J.C. back in a package deal!

I don't know if you were planning on getting to them in a future post, but to me the team best equipped to take on Hunter is the Yankees.  With Hideki Matsui possibly leaving next year, the stage is set for Johnny Damon and his noodle-arm to slide over to left, a position for which he's much more well-suited, and Hunter to take over in CF.  Of course, then the issue becomes what are we getting back.  Seventeen-year-old Jose Tabata is an interesting player, but outside of him the only  prospect the Yanks have that really entices me is Philip Hughes, and the Twins need another pitching prospect like they need Juan Castro hitting cleanup.

by Nick Nelson on Jun 2, 2006 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yankees
Actually I did mention the Yankees a bit in my comment to my last post but only in passing, in fact none of the AL East teams seemed like a good candidate for a Hunter trade. As I said, I don't know too much about minor league prospects and I'd prefer a major league ready player, but I didn't think the Yankees had much in their system after Cano moved up to the big club and in regards to players the Twins can afford.

So while I thought they could use Hunter, I didn't think we'd get anything from them. Of course, I might be willing to do a deal if they gave us $15,000,000 in cash staight up. But I'm crazy like that and I don't even know if that's possible.

by MNPundit on Jun 2, 2006 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hunter
Hunter for jason Bay

I bet that the Pirates would go for it...

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 4, 2006 2:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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