Open Conversation: Projection Poll

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2006 2:07 AM EDT in News

Read yesterday's entry regarding offensive projections through the end of the year, then take the poll on the right-hand side of the page. Whose projections are most likely to hold up? Not whose numbers you'd like to see going forward; whose projections are most realistic?

Joe Mauer, ripping a 2-run double last night against the Brewers

My vote would go to either Hunter or Cuddyer. Hunter, because his yearly numbers have been surprisingly consistent and this year isn't much different. Cuddyer, because his projections don't necessitate prolonged hot power (Morneau) or hitting (Mauer) streaks. Where do you sit?

Torii goes boom back-to-back with Morneau

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Cuddyer

Replacing Castillo with Stewart at the top of the order, followed by Punto and Mauer, means that Cuddy will be batting with runners on base all the time. Right now he's batting only .250 with the bases empty but .284 with runners on, .315 RISP. The corresponding OPS are really impressive: 790, 944, 1063. And remember, most of those numbers came before Morneau became an offensive machine. He's going to see a lot of fastballs in the second half.

by fjm235 on Jul 1, 2006 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

As long as Morneau continues to intimidate pitchers while he's still in the on-deck circle, opposing teams will want to get Cuddyer out to keep as many runners off the bases as possible. This means giving him pitches to hit so that he either A: gets himself out on a hit or B: gets himself out on 3 strikes.

With the additional "good pitches" and fastballs, Cuddy should be able to work that power stroke back into shape, and hopefully drive the average up a bit as well. The OBP looks good.

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2006 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Punto gettin' no love!

Torii and Cuddy each have 12 votes, Morneau has 10 and Mauer comes in 4th so far with 8....

LNP still has zero! Are his numbers really not sustainable?

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2006 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

Punto and Hunter

Punto's numbers are not sustainable for two reasons:

A. He is injury prone. If he stays healthy the rest of the way, he might continue his line. That's a big if considering that he slides into first at least one time per game.

B. A lot of posters, myself included, expect Punto to go back to the bench when the Twins acquire a legit third baseman. The only way he stays in the lineup all year is if the Twins package Castillo for that third baseman and send Punto to second. I advocate this move, but it too is a big if.

Hunter has had only one three-week hot streak all year. Otherwise, his numbers are well below his mean career numbers. For that reason, I think Hunter's most likely to meet or exceed his projection. As far as protection, as Kubel gets more and more comfortable, I expect him to provide good protection for Hunter. Not as good as Morneau, but good enough.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 1, 2006 3:15 PM EDT reply actions

Hunter

I said Hunter because his numbers are basically career average. His deviation of 20 points on each power and OBP is rather minor when speaking of comparing his career years.

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 1, 2006 10:01 PM EDT reply actions