The Best Twenty Game Stretch Ever?
I wrote the following column after Wednesday's game. I had the idea that this might be the best 20 game stretch in Twins history. I jumped the gun by comparing the Twins 20 game stretch in 1991 to a 19 game stretch in 2006. I've updated the column to a twenty game stretch through Friday night. Of course, the Twins won on Saturday night, too, so the streak continues. But I wanted to update the column and provide it for your consumption.
The other day I said in a moment of exurberence that this recent hot streak was as well as the Twins have played in fifteen years. Of course, I was referring to the stretch beginning on June 1, 1991 in which the Twins were one pitch away from winning twenty straight games. At the end of play on May 31, 1991, the Twins had a 23-25 record and were tied for fifth in the seven team American League West, just one game ahead of the Kansas City Royals (have they been in the cellar forever? No it just seems that way) and 5 1/2 games behind both Texas and Oakland. The standings at the end of May 1991 looked like this.
Team Name W L PCT GB
Texas Rangers 26 17 0.605 --
Oakland Athletics 28 19 0.596 --
California Angels 26 21 0.553 2.0
Seattle Mariners 25 23 0.521 3.5
Minnesota Twins 23 25 0.479 5.5
Chicago White Sox 21 23 0.477 5.5
Kansas City Royals 21 25 0.457 6.5
The Twins then won 15 straight games, the streak ending when Rick Aguilera gave up three runs in the ninth inning against Baltimore to blow a two run save. The Twins then won four more in a row, and after those 20 games, in which they went 19-1, the Twins had a record of 42-26 and were in first place, with a four game lead over Oakland. The streak was an impressive one, to be sure, and the Twins had the good fortune of having everyone else in front of them fail even stay close to them. The standings at the end of play on June 22, 1991 looked like this.
Team Name W L PCT GB
Minnesota Twins 42 26 0.618 --
Oakland Athletics 38 30 0.559 4.0
California Angels 37 30 0.552 4.5
Seattle Mariners 37 30 0.552 4.5
Texas Rangers 34 29 0.540 5.5
Chicago White Sox 32 33 0.492 8.5
Kansas City Royals 32 33 0.492 8.5
During that stretch, the Twins not only played historically well, but the top two teams in the division, Oakland and Texas, played sub-.500 baseball. Other teams in the division played well during that time, but no one hung with the Twins. Here is how the division fared between May 31, 1991 and June 22, 1991.
Team Name W L PCT GB
Minnesota Twins 19 1 0.950 --
Seattle Mariners 12 7 0.632 6.5
Kansas City Royals 11 8 0.579 7.5
California Angels 11 9 0.550 8.0
Chicago White Sox 11 10 0.524 8.5
Oakland Athletics 10 11 0.476 9.5
Texas Rangers 8 12 0.400 11.0
Of course, the big deal is that the Twins made up between 6.5 and 11.0 games on every team in the division in three weeks. But, there's more to the story. The rest of the division was 6 games over .500 during that time. Counting the Twins, the American League West was 24 games over .500 over the course of the three week period. In other words, the American League West was pounding the crap out of the American League East. For the season, the American League West was a full 60 games over .500 and every team in the division played .500 ball or better.
Flash forward to 2006. Once again, the Twins are playing in a power house division and once again the Twins found themselves back in the pack, although this year it is even moreso. Over the last 20 games ending on Friday night, the Twins are 18-2, almost the same level of dominance as the 1991 Twins big stretch. Yet, the Twins gained only 1/2 game against the Detroit Tigers. Top James made the point that rarely has a team played as well as the Twins and not made up any ground. Of course, I humbly point out to Top James that rarely has a team like the Tigers, already in first place and basically winning 90% of their games for almost three weeks put so little distance between themselves and the two teams directly below them. It is a phenomenal stretch.
One reason has been thrown out for the inablility of the Twins to move up is that interleague play has prevented the Twins from playing the teams ahead of them. However, in 1991, the Twins played zero, that's right, zero games against teams ahead of them in the standings during the twenty game stretch. The first two games were against the Royals -- the only team in the division below the Twins -- and the other 18 games were against the worst three teams in the American League East . The Twins caught a soft spot in the schedule and made hay. It propelled them to a Division and, eventually, World Championship.
So, is it possible that the current stretch is better than the legendary 1991 stretch? Let's take a look.
During the 1991 streak, the Twins scored 118 runs and allowed 58 runs, for an expected winning percentage of 78.5%. During the current streak, the Twins have scored 122 runs and allowed 54 runs, for an expected winning percentage of 81.5%.
As of June 22, 1991, the last day of the streak, every team that the Twins played during the streak was below .500 and the average record was 25-39, a winning percentage of 39.2%. Pretty crappy. As of right now, the average record of the teams that the Twins have played over the last 19 games is 36.5-41.5, a winning percentage of 46.7%. That might not seem like much difference. But the average 1991 average opponent projects to a record of 64-98 while the 2006 average opponent projects to a record of 76-86. In addition, seven games were played against teams with better than .500 records. Six of those games were against division leaders. So, the quality of opponent has been much better.
Let's look at starting pitching.
Year IP H R ER BB SO HR FIP ERA QS
1991 135.33 122 46 38 33 73 12 3.71 2.53 16
2006 131.33 107 35 31 19 98 12 2.73 2.12 15
Of course, there is one more game in the 1991 stretch, but the numbers are better in 2006. The innings are comparable, the strikeouts are up, walks are down and the HRs are about the same (and this is a much more homer-friendly time, especially considering that the dome had the plexiglass in 1991 and that monstrosity in Houston). Add it up and you have a much better FIP, a better ERA and it was achieved against better competition. While the 1991 Twins had Morris, Tapani, and Erickson mowing down all comers, the Twins counter with our Stupendous Southpaws, along with a bunch of other guys trying to prove that the first part of the year was a fluke, or in the case of Boof Bonser, trying to prove he belongs, period.
While the Twins have been frustrated by their inability to make up ground, fans should -- and have, I believe -- just flat out enjoy the play. And why not. It might just be the best 20 game stretch in club history.
0 recs |
6 comments
|
Comments
And the Killer....
Whew!
by twintown on Jul 2, 2006 4:46 PM EDT reply actions
Plus.......
by twintown on Jul 2, 2006 4:46 PM EDT reply actions
Note on the numbers
After last night
in my opinion
by cortalekanak on Jan 16, 2007 4:28 AM EST reply actions

by 



















