The Amazing Nick Punto

by Jesse on Jul 21, 2006 5:35 AM EDT in News Comment 17 comments

Well...he has been amazing...right?

First, "amazing" might be a little over-the-top. But, he's been better than we could have hoped, he's been miles better than whatever third baseman we had before him, and he's definitely turned into a nice number 2 hitter. So even if he doesn't have the power you generally need from a third baseman, is it really hurting the Twins?

Punto in 2006

At 28, Nick Punto is having a career year. While he picked up 394 at-bats in 2005, most of these came because of his flexibility. This year, now the Twins' full-time third baseman, Punto is on pace for only 348. This number is unadjusted for being a starter however, and as long as he A: stays healthy, B: continues to hit second in the batting order and C: continues to play everyday, his at-bats should easily surpass 400.
2006 Batting Statistics Games AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO Avg Obp Slg Ops 72 202 65 14 4 0 35 21 28 24 .322 .403 .431 .834

Advanced Batting Statistics VORP EQA WARP 14.7 .282 1.9
If Punto were throwing up these numbers at second base, we could probably add him to the mix of snubs at the All Star game if it were to happen tomorrow. At third base the expectations go up a little bit (a lot in some areas), which is why even though the 14.7 Value Over Replacement Player is a nice number (third highest on the offensive side for the Twins), his Wins Above Replacement Player is only 1.9.

By now, nobody should be doubting that Punto has been on fire. When you compare him to what was there before, everything is going to come out smelling like roses. On one side you have energetic defense, quickness, an out-of-this-world on-base percentage and a nifty VORP. On the other side you have no home runs, a sub-par slugging percentage and a weak WARP. Talk about a mixed bag.

Sizing Up the Competition

Everytime somebody talks about how good he's been, somebody else brings up the fact that "Well...it's just not great for a third baseman." So, out with it. In comparison to the rest of the third basemen in all of baseball with significant playing time (55+ games played), where does Punto sit?
Statistic MLB AL Average 5 1 OBP 3 1 SLG 25 9 OPS 15 5 Runs 25 12 RBI 35 15 HR Last Last Doubles 27 11 Walks 17 7
Some of these numbers inherently play against Punto because he had a late start at everyday play. Runs, RBI, doubles and walks could all be higher on the list. Of course they're not, and so what you have is the makeup of a good offensive middle infielder, not corner infielder.

The Bottom Line

The reason that baseball has pages and pages of statistics is to give you the perfect way to evaluate players objectively, without using the tools that are most likely to fool you: your eyes. These numbers, every line and every digit, represent what a player can do in any specific range. Isolated power, times on base, value against X, etc. The better these numbers are, the easier it is to contruct The Perfect Team. Of course there's never going to be The Perfect Team in baseball, but the pursuit of A Better Team never stops. So you look for ways to improve. Smart managers, smart GM's and smart owners all should be starting with the numbers.

All of these numbers, however, are merely guideposts to one final number: The Win. There are uncountable ways to win an at-bat, a game, a series, THE Series. No matter what happens, no matter what numbers you put up, you have to win.

Since Nick Punto effectively became the Minnesota everyday third baseman on June 13, the Twins are 26-6. Is it all because of him? Of course not. But he's been a part of it; a big part of it.

Having power always helps. Having power at the corners is "ideal", particularly at third base. But it's not a prerequisite to win.

Third Basemen of the Last 10 World Series Champions
Year Team Name HR Avg Obp Slg 2005 CWS J. Crede 22 .252 .303 .454 2004 BOS B. Mueller 12 .283 .365 .446 2003 FLA M. Lowell 32 .276 .350 .530 2002 ANA T. Glaus 30 .250 .352 .453 2001 ARZ M. Williams 16 .275 .314 .466 2000 NYY S. Brosius 16 .230 .299 .374 1999 NYY S. Brosius 17 .247 .307 .414 1998 NYY S. Brosius 19 .300 .371 .472 1997 FLA B. Bonilla 17 .297 .378 .468 1996 NYY W. Boggs 2 .311 .389 .389
Punto's slugging percentage would be 8th on this list, beating Boggs, and Scott Brosius twice. His OBP tops them all.

I'm not trying to say that the Twins shouldn't look to upgrade at third base. What I'm saying is that there are other areas that are larger holes than where Nick Punto plays. Designated hitter, the bench in general, the outfield, even a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher should be more of a pressing need than a third baseman.

I asked the question ealier: So even if [Punto] doesn't have the power you generally need from a third baseman, is it really hurting the Twins? The answer is: no. It's not. The Twins are winning. If the Twins begin a slide at some point over the coming weeks or months, it's likely going to be from lack of production from the DH or outfield, due to injuries. It's not going to be because "Nick Punto isn't the ideal third baseman".

Yesterday he was 1-for-3, with a walk. Nick Punto gets results, and he helps the team win. That's all I need.

0 recs | Comment 17 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Trade

They could try to package Castillo and Lohse for more of a power hitting 3B and move Punto to 2B. I don't know if Hillenbrand would be the answer but, the 3B possibilities have been discussed alot already.

by eswanson55 on Jul 21, 2006 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

This is the solution I would endorse. It is a good play for 2006 and a better play for 2007. AWe know the Dodgers have been scouting Lohse and they are trying to fill holes intheir infiled right now. Castillo would look like a pretty big upgrade to Izturis at second. And they have a lot of talent in the upper levels that can not only help now, but next year and in the future (Aybar, Broxton, etc.).

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 21, 2006 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dealing with LA

I'd advocate a deal with Los Angeles, on the condition that Matt Kemp was part of it. Castillo would definitely benefit from moving off the turf at the Dome, and if TR put together the right package for LA, I hope LaRoche could be had, too.

Carriage Return

by CarterHayes on Jul 23, 2006 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA/BIP

Nice analysis. I love Punto right now, and there's no way I'd move him off third at the moment (barring injury), but is this for real? Is he a long-term option at 3B?

What's the difference in Nick Punto, version 2006? His strikeout rate has been cut in half (down to 10% from 20% prior) and his walk rate is up (to 12% from about 8%), but he's also sitting at a .365 BA/BIP. That seems like an unsustainable level -- only 6 qualifiers have finished with a higher BA/BIP in the past two seasons. If he had the league average BA/BIP (.304), his line this year would be .267/.356/.376 (and that's assuming all of his lost hits were merely singles). Any spike in that K rate, or drop in his BB rate, and that line goes down even further.

What would we be saying about a .267/.356/.376 Punto this year? Good utility man, solid fill-in at third, but I bet our #1 target at the deadline would be a new third baseman. The way it looks now, barring injury or a complete collapse, Punto is probably already penciled into our 2007 lineup at third.

From The Hardball Times:
Year    Tm    Lg    RC    RC/G    GPA    P/PA    LD%    BA/BIP    GB%    IF/F    HR/F    BA/RISP    Clutch
2004    MIN    AL    14    6.0    .230    4.0    30.4%    .300    30.4%    N/A    7.8%    .346    3.4
2005    MIN    AL    36    3.3    .220    4.0    21.2%    .296    51.2%    12.3%    5.2%    .198    -2.1
2006    MIN    AL    36    7.2    .287    3.8    22.5%    .365    45.1%    8.9%    0.0%    .298    -1.1

by spycake on Jul 21, 2006 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

probably will regress to career avg

wow, that BABIT statistic is very concerning. Thank you. I am always suspicious when a player goes through a period that is very atypical of their career performance, and hesitant to assume it will continue. That .365 BABIT number indicates that a lot of balls are just happening to fall in lately for Punto. As you say, no one can sustain that number.

I am not saying that it is impossible that Punto will continue to play at this level; perhaps playing full time has helped him turn some corner. It's just that given his career numbers, it is extremely unlikely.

There is no question that he has been a huge step up at third this year, both offensively and defensively. But even if he could sustain those offensive numbers, it would be a waste to play him at third instead of middle infield, where that level of offensive production looks even better.

He has been a big, big part of this turnaround, and even if his hitting regresses, as it probably will, he is still doing wonders for the pitchers. But counting on Nick Punto to hit .300 next year is not a good long term strategy at third base. We could maybe win with a .267, no power third baseman, but it wouldn't exactly be a position of team strength.

by by jiminy on Jul 21, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strictly speaking...

That .365 BABIP number indicates that a lot of balls are just happening to fall in lately for Punto. As you say, no one can sustain that number.

Strictly speaking, that's not true at all. If we look over the last two years, there are six players who have hit better than .365 BABIP in a season, some much more than .365. So the claim that "no one" can sustain that kind of BABIP is certainly untrue.

BABIP is a skill for hitters.

This season, Mauer has a .404 BABIP so far. That's because Mauer hits plenty of line drives that are basically unfieldable by the defense. Mauer has a 26.2% LD% and Punto has a 22.5% LD%. That difference would give you a 0.037 difference in BABIP if all line drives went for hits, and the difference in Punto's BABIP and Mauer's BABIP is 0.039. If Punto keeps hitting line drives, then he can keep this up.

Like I commented below, I do expect Punto to regress some--but not to his career levels. What he's shown so far this year is a definite improvement on what he's done in the past and it can't be explained as simply a run of good luck. Punto is a different hitter than he has been in the past, and as such, we should expect his numbers to regress to something better than what he's hit in the past.

by ubelmann on Jul 21, 2006 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He said...

...he worked with Vavra a LOT this year on cutting down his strikeouts and moved his hands down on the bat, so he's altered his mechanics. Improvements made by altering mechanics can be sustained so while I think he'll regress it won't be to his career levels.

by MNPundit on Jul 21, 2006 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

minor quibble

strictly speaking, sure, but for all practical purposes, 6 guys in two years is basically no one.

That said I am thrilled by all the ample evidence that he really just plain got better. I doubt he'll do what only 6 guys have done in two years, but I am now convinced by everyone's comments that he WON'T regress back to his career averages, which is very exciting. Thanks for convincing me.

You love to see a guy who works hard, accepts his role, listens to coaches, doesn't complain, hustles, and when he gets an opportunity, makes the most it, achieving success.

I have a feeling that is one third baseman who won't be writing "play for yourself" and "This ship is sinking" on the locker room whiteboard, which is an added bonus.

by by jiminy on Jul 21, 2006 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Made some adjustments

I think Punto will regress towards his career average but they will stabilize at about .300/..380/.400 if he continues to get regular playing time. He is a better player than his stats previously indicate. He's never had a regular gig in the majors for more than a month at a time, until now. And he seems to have turned a corner.

That said, I agree with Spycake that some of these hits will ind gloves and his average and OBP will go down. Still, I think he can be a league average everyday second baseman with the adjustments he has made. The above line would be a few ticks above replacement level at third, but not nearly league average.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 21, 2006 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of things...

My first comment was going to be:

Please raise your hand if you believe Nick Punto will be hitting .322 at the end of the season.

Like I'm enjoying Mauer's season-to-date with a .370+ batting average, I'm pretty sure he'll wind up below that by the time everything's said and done. There is a chance that Mauer could hit .400, just like there's a chance Punto could hit .350, or there's a chance that Punto could finish at .322 -- I'm just not really excited about those odds.

Secondly, BABIP for hitters is most certainly a skill.

Earlier this season, I was very skeptical about Punto's improvement, saying that he'd never been good at hitting for average in his professional career (minors/majors). That's still true. This is basically the first full season (and it's not a full season yet) where Punto has been an outstanding hitter for average. That's why I expected him to regress, though, not because his BABIP was high, but because he'd never shown this skill--hitting for average--before in his career.

There is one thing that makes me think he might keep this up. Punto now has 28 walks against 24 strikeouts on the season. Generally speaking, it seems as though guys with a K/BB ratio around 1 can hit for a good average, especially when it means their K-rate is pretty low. At Punto's current pace, he's striking out at half the rate he was last year. That's almost certainly not a fluke, and I think it indicates there is some real improvement here. Just how much improvement remains to be seen. I say he'll regress a bit by the end of the season, but could easily see him finishing the season at .300/.381/.409, considering the performance he already has in the bank. That would be plenty productive, and I would certainly be pleased with the Nick Punto Experience, as I have been so far this season.

That said, if the Twins are going to go out and get someone, I'd rather have them go get a third baseman with power. Even with Morneau doing his best David Ortiz impression, the Twins are still 13th out of 14 AL teams in HRs. While it is possible to have a good offense without power, it's much easier to have a good offense with power (just ask the reigning World Series champions). It's easier to get power at 3B than it is at 2B. So, long term, if Punto can keep this up, I'd much rather see him moved to 2B and see Castillo moved or let go in order for us to dedicate that money to putting a little bit of pop in the offense. We've managed to improve to a middling offense with OBP alone. If we can add just a little more power, that OBP will be that much more productive.

by ubelmann on Jul 21, 2006 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Average BA/BIP still yields improvement

I understand that BA/BIP is a skill, but like you say, Punto has never been a high-average hitter before, so I don't know if Punto himself suddenly learned the skill to maintain a .365 BA/BIP at age 28. For someone who doesn't strike out much, that's a pretty elite level, no? Also, consider there is zero difference in Punto's LD% this year, and his other batted-ball numbers (GB%, IFF%) are also similar.

Hence why my exercise in giving Punto the league-average BA/BIP is actually fairly close to your original premise. That yields a 2006 line like the following:

.267/.356/.376

That's still way better than his career numbers, and even better than his minor-league numbers (power-wise). With the reduced strikeouts and strong defense, that's also solid for a middle infielder. If his improvement is real, and he can maintain an above-average BA/BIP, that line can also trend upward towards your predicted .300/.381/.409, although it's still not an ideal 3B line.

It's tough to evaluate, because he's still barely over 200 plate appearances for the season. The K and BB rates are very encouraging, but there could still be a lot of other fluctuations in that sample.

by spycake on Jul 21, 2006 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you notice

Nick Punto has changed a lot about his swing mechanics and plate approach.

He's lowered his hands and shortened his swing from set to ball and is using his legs more. Thats why his LD% is up. Incidentally Rondell has also lowered his hands and shorted his swing too.

Anyway, he probably isnt a .322 hitter and he will never have ideal power for a corner infielder...but he might be a .280-290 hitter and with an improved plate approach and the ability to now foul off pitches he probably can be a .370+ OBP guy too. He might be a long term solution at 2nd with those type of numbers.

by BHtwins on Jul 21, 2006 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Punto's Past

It's not necessarily true that, as spycake said and others have echoed, Punto has "never been a high-average hitter before." Something that people tend to forget is that last year after he nabbed the starting second base job from Luis Rivas, Punto was doing very well. When he got hurt in early June, Punto was hitting .293/.351/.423. When he returned from that injury, he was absolute garbage and he finished the season with poor numbers, but that initial stretch showed me that with a little regular playing time, Punto is a capable player. This is why I stuck up for him often in the off-season when people complained that the Twins didn't just dump him (though even I couldn't have possibly predicted this much improvement).

There's no question that Punto's newfound success has a lot to do with the increased walk rate and the decreased strikeout rate. I'm thinking that the coaching he received in spring training from Rod Carew may be a big part of that. Punto has changed his batting stance and shortened his swing and is now getting wood on balls that he frequently missed last year (he has also cut down big-time on his extremely annoying tendency to watch strike three go by). His speed allows him to bunt for hits and reach on infield singles.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jul 21, 2006 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2005

I haven't forgotten Punto's pre-injury line of 293/.351/.423 last year, but I also remember it was in just 123 AB, and he had already struck out a whopping 33 times versus only 11 walks. Something tells me he wouldn't have continued to hit so well, even if he had stayed healthy.

I too am interested to see if Punto's new approach results in a higher average in addition to fewer K's and more BB's, but he's never delivered a comparable sustained performance previously, that's for sure.

by spycake on Jul 21, 2006 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

i agree. I think the critical thing here is how good he would be as a second baseman, and how Castillo isn't nearly what he used to be, but still could help a lot of teams.

That is why i think we should trade Catillo for, or after getting a young third base player and move Punto to second where he could go from solid roster filler to excellent starter.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 21, 2006 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is

This is interesting. As much as I'd been saying we don't have a chance, the fact is we are now only three out in teh card.

If they really are lookign to give him away, which they probobly aren't, I'd be up for it.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 22, 2006 1:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Count me among Punto's staunchest fans

Jesse,

I've been thinking a great deal about the evolution of third base over last century recently. Early on, due to the tactics of the game, third basemen were quite a bit more like Nick Punto - small, athletic, light-hitting, but with good hands and range. As bunting became less of a regular occurance, third base slowly involved into a more goalie-like position defensively, and this allowed teams to put bigger, stronger, harder-hitting players at the position, shifting guys like Punto over to second base.

For throwback reasons alone, I'm getting a huge kick out of the Nick Punto experience, and I'm really curious to see how long he can string it out. To be completely honest, if I thought he wouldn't be an injury risk, I'd love to see if he could be an Eddie Yost-type player at the hot corner. In fact, I think it could actually be a good thing for the Twins in the long term.

The reason I say that is because it's cheaper to find a masher to be the DH than it is to find a third baseman who can slug the ball while not embarrasing himself in the field. A guy like Aramis Ramirez puts up a pretty offensive line, but other than Batista and Hinske, he's got the worst range in the bigs. I'm sure no one wants a repeat of the Batista experiment in the field, and I given the shortage of all-around talent at third base, I'd rather spend the time and money looking for a true DH, something the team has lacked since the days of Molitor, Winfield, and Davis.

Carriage Return

by CarterHayes on Jul 23, 2006 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs