Thinking the Unthinkable

by fjm235 on Jul 23, 2006 1:09 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

After yesterday's game Gardy announced that Scott Baker would miss his turn in the rotation because of the off-day next Thursday. That sets up Liriano, Radke and Santana to face the Tigers next weekend. That's smart, although I think it would have been even smarter to skip Silva. Without his sinker he might as well be throwing batting practice. His ERA as a starter (7.33) is a full run worse than Baker's. Moreover, Silva presents an alternative that Baker apparently does not: he can pitch out of the bullpen. His ERA as a reliever is 1.29!

Regardless of who it is, I do believe one starter needs to be dropped from the rotation. But not just for one start, because of an off-day. It should be permanent! That's right, I'm saying the Twins should go to a 4-man rotation for the rest of the season (and the playoffs, of course). IMHO, that's the only way we make the playoffs. I know all the arguments against it, but I don't believe they apply here. Three of our four starters are young enough to get by on 3 days rest occasionally; only Radke might be a bit overworked. That can be control with strict adherence to a pitch count. With our outstanding bullpen (including Silva) that should not present any problems.

Poll

Should we go to a 4-man rotation?

Yes, drop Baker

4 votes

Yes, drop Silva

34 votes

No

47 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Comments

That's quite the idea...

and I'm totally on board. As you mention, as long as they are on pitch counts, are bullpen is deep and dominant enough to cover for it. Now I doubt they do it; Gardy and TR don't exactly "think outside the box." But it would be the smart thing to do. You could effectively even have Baker/Silva as almost half-starters, with Baker starting, but Silva basically being kept in reserve for those games to go if Baker struggles.

Also, at this point I wouldn't mind Lohse getting another shot. It might be time to deal for a backend starter though, either Livan Hernandez or Armas probably being my top 2 choices given what it would take to get them/overall potential in those spots for this team/risk.

by djskilbr on Jul 23, 2006 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

4 man rotation

I wrote about the 4 man rotation on my blog earlier this month so I won't go into it too much.

Basically there is no evidence that a pitcher is injured more often on a 4 man rotation. But pitch counts would have to be watched carefully. No more 120 pc.

Also Silva sucks and Baker isn't even that bad. His DIPS is 4.52. Not bad but pretty good for a 4th starter.

Crain used to start and he has been lights out for a month now.

by LionelHutz on Jul 24, 2006 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't think so

The twins only have 4 or 5 off days the rest of the year. The twins are not going to risk their golden arms for a run at the wildcard. Nor should they.

by Pete Palumbo on Jul 23, 2006 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Matt Guerrier

is Currently rehabing from his broken finger and was pitching really well before he got hurt. His K/BB ratio wasn't great at 19/14 in 32 IP but he started when was in the minors and has a Era of 3.73 in 123 major league Innings. We could use his rehab to build his pitch count up. Baker is going to be Part of the Furture and I have been a big supporter of his but right now his is not getting it done so I'm in favor of sending Willie erye Down when Guerrier is ready moving Guerrier into the Rototion useing baker as the 5th guys when we need one but skipping him when we can. Then we can put Sliva in Willie's Spot. Then Trade Loshe for a couple of hot dogs to who ever wants him to get the pitching staff down 11 guys and we are set.

by FrozenTed9 on Jul 23, 2006 3:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm basically in favor of this...

In the absence of trading for a veteran starter (Livan/Armas spring to my mind for this team) and dealing Silva, when Lohse is dealt, I'd much rather see Guerrier in Silva's spot and Silva in the pen as you mentioned. I'm still definitely not counting out Garza come September either.

Ideally though, we do trade for a veteran starter like one of the above and deal Silva/Lohse for whatever we can get, keeping Guerrier in the longman role with Baker as the 5th starter (Garza/Guerrier if he falters). This is my ideal rotation for the rest of the year, post July 31:

Liriano
Radke
Santana
Veteran starter (Armas/Livan)
Baker (Garza in the wings)
Guerrier
Reyes
Neshek
Crain
Rincon
Nathan

The most exciting part about this staff is that that pen is almost PERFECT. A very good longman, a very good matchup lefty, and 4 stud guys late that could close for a lot of teams, including 3 that HAVE closing experience. We're not going to be losing many games the rest of the year if we can shore up those 4/5 spots, that's for sure.

by djskilbr on Jul 23, 2006 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who would have thought

Reyes would inspire confidence? Way to go Dennys.

Also, I am pleasantly surprised with Neshek. Crain is the one I most have doubts about and you know what? If Jesse Crain is the low man in the pen, I can live with that.

by MNPundit on Jul 23, 2006 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

(raises hand)

Who would have thought Reyes would inspire confidence?

Me? Going into this year, Reyes had great K/TBF and GB% numbers. His biggest downfall was a poor walk rate, the same beast that J.C. Romero has had trouble with. But under the tutelage of Rick Anderson and the Twins' "just throw strikes" mentality, Reyes' walk rate has dropped significantly. This isn't the first time that the Twins have picked up a journeyman and made him into a solid reliever. I didn't expect Reyes to be quite this good, but it was completely reasonable to expect him to be solid.

by ubelmann on Jul 24, 2006 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade

I'd love to get a veteran starter, but only if he is much better than what we already have. And with about a dozen teams looking for pitching that won't happen unless we give up a couple top prospects. That would be a big mistake.

Yesterday's game was the perfect example of what I had in mind. Maximum 100 pitches for the starter and piece it together from there. The only thing wrong with it was, normally 100 pitches will get you 6 or 7 innings.

by fjm235 on Jul 24, 2006 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starter Blues

I would be in favor of giving Lohse one more start...preferably in place of the upcoming Silva spot.

And moving Silva to the bullpen for the remainder of the season.

And sending Baker down. It doesn't do him justcie to skip his turn in the rotation when he should be building on that starter stamina of pitching every fifth day.

So you then decide if Boof Bonser should come abck up, for at least one or two mroe shots.

And if youc an build up Matt Guerrier, put him in the 4th/5th starter spot. Of course, assuming that Kyle Lohse will be gone in 9 days.

If none of the above is working, you have September to work in Garza for one or two starts, and maybe some other hotshot minor league guy for one.

Sadly, J.D. Durbin is out for the season. This could have been his one big chance to comeback. Now he'll be just part of the mix come next spring with the potential for being optioned...to anotehr club if he doesn't make the Twins.

But Lohse can't stay around. The blood is too bad.

Silva SHOULD be the ground-ball bullpen guy.

Baker has potential, but can't he keep that dang ball down. Or do a better mix of pitches?

by twintown on Jul 23, 2006 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think

That durbin could be used in the Willie erye role next year that way we could see if he has it and not get burned if he doesn't. I was really sad to see that was shut down for the year because he has went through so much that last few years form the "just shut up dumb rook" thing that happened when he got his first shot and the tommy john then coming back and getting hurt again this year.

by FrozenTed9 on Jul 24, 2006 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

I hope Silva comes back to form next year. Heck, even if he is at a 4.5 ERA form, I would be ecstatic. Also, I think a Matt Gurrier 5th starter position would be great. Keep him there for 5 innings, bring in Silva/Lohse/Baker for two, then send in the trusty Rincon/Nathan combo, and I think we'd have some wins.

by Krogher on Jul 23, 2006 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh good

that's a good idea, lets force our young stud pitchers (cough, Liriano) to pitch more than he's ever been conditioned and prepared to. What good idea.

They should drop Silva every time they get the chance with off days. The rest of the time, 5 is the way to go.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 23, 2006 10:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

silva sucks,

I wrote about the 4 man rotation on my blog earlier this month so I won't go into it too much.

Basically there is no evidence that a pitcher is injured more often on a 4 man rotation. But pitch counts would have to be watched carefully. No more 120 pc.

Also Silva sucks and Baker isn't even that bad. His DIPS is 4.52. Not bad but pretty good for a 4th starter.

Crain used to start and he has been lights out for a month now.

by LionelHutz on Jul 24, 2006 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There

But there isn't a significant amount of data or evidence to study on a four man rotation in several decades. I believe the only time it was attempted recently in was with cinncinatti a few years ago. It went fine for a few times through the rotation, then their pitchers started to pitch worse and worse and worse.

The fact is, pitchers these days just aren't conditioned to pitch eery four days. If you started them in the minors that way, you could probobly do it, but no current major leaguers have trained their bodies for a career of starting every four days.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 24, 2006 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right...

...if you want to do it, you have to start the pitchers a bit earlier. Switching over mid-season isn't the way to do it. It still remains easier to find 4 good pitchers than 5 good pitchers, so I'd be interested in exploring this idea, but I don't know if I want the test subjects to be Santana and Liriano.

by ubelmann on Jul 24, 2006 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, certainly not

The problem is you'd probobloy have to start it no earlier than A ball, and it would have to be all of your pitchers. They would have to be conditioned for it ALL the way up. Then you run into the problem of only guys from your system in the age group can do it. You can't bring in guys from outside, and you can't have guys that you have that are older. then you run the risk that it screws with them and suyddenly you lose an entire generation of pitchers.

And frankly, I'm not sure if it wold work so hot today. Wheter the pitchers are conditioned for it or notk the fact is they would be more tired than more rested pitchers. This hasn't been done in many years, and hitters are tougher now. Pitchers must throw ecer more demanding pitches and push themselves ever harder to get outs. I'm not sure if the somewhat more tired guys right out of the 70's could do it against today's hitters.

But even still, you run into such massive problems in setting it up that any gain in totally negated before you even apply risk of injury or failure.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 25, 2006 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Bert harps on the five-man rotation, the use of bullpens and pitch counts all the time. And you know what, he's wrong.

Hitters are a lot better at a lot more positions than they were back in the days of four-man rotations (esp. shortstops, catchers, center fielders and second basemen). Pitchers need to throw harder now than they did back when a get-me-over curveball and a batting practice fastball were good enough to get guys out a lot of the time. So pitchers conserved their energy and only threw hard when they had to to get through the tough innings with the heart of the order. They threw 120 pitchers or so per game every fourth day, but it was free and easy without all the pressure pitchers are under in every inning of every game.

And back in the day, a lot of pitchers only lasted three or four years before their arms blew up. You look at the Twins staffs in the 60s and 70s and they had a lot of guys who had good three-year careers. Then they lost their arms. Guys like Jim Kaat, and Blyleven were the exceptions to the rule. Dave Goltz and Jim Perry were the norm. The rule was short careers for pitchers. Pitchers are too valuable in a league with 30 teams to treat them like meat anymore.

Finally, in a small market like this, you need to develop pitchers, which means giving a guy a chance at the fifth starting spot and taking your lumps for that game in the hopes that he'll learn how to get major league hiters out. A four-man rotation seriously limits your ability to develop young pitchers, and it inflates the price of the other four guys who wil lead the league in innings and be up there in wins if they're successful.

Teams do it this way because it works. If you can get five guys to give you quality starts every fifth day with 90-100 pitches it is good enough. Then you need five guys in the bullpen who can finish games out. Blyleven's pining for days gone by is all well and good. But it won't work. And it's probably the reason he's in the broadcast booth instead of in a bullpen or pitching coach job somewhere. Very few baseball men agree with him anymore.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 25, 2006 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs