Twins Community Prospect # 7

by FrozenTed9 on Jul 28, 2006 12:49 PM EDT

Matt Moses is your #6 prospect. There are some More changes on the List. Thanks to everyone who voted last time. Here's the List So Far.
1. Matt Garza
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Alexi Casilla
4. Anthony Swarzak
5. Glen Perkins
6. Matt Moses

Poll

Who is the Twins #7 prospect?

Eduardo Morlan

5 votes

Alex Romero

14 votes

Denard Span

14 votes

Whit Robbins

7 votes

Brandon Roberts

2 votes

Chris Parmelee

7 votes

Daniel Valencia

0 votes

Other Please name below

0 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 20 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Span? Are you kidding me?

Who keeps voting for Span? He can't even hit AA pitching. 16 xbh in 385 ab's?? .337 OBP for a guy whose supposed asset is that he can get on base?? Twice as many K's as walks?? Gimme a break. I'll pass.

by captnhawaii on Jul 28, 2006 3:37 PM EDT reply actions

I'll take Roberts over Span...

in a heartbeat. That's who I continue to vote for. Over Moses too.

by djskilbr on Jul 28, 2006 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

me too..

.. though more so out of disdain for Span than support of Roberts. Although I like what I've seen from Roberts (especially the way he has been driving the ball of late), his small sample size makes me hesitant to crown him the CF of the future.

by captnhawaii on Jul 28, 2006 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds kind of irrational...

...to me.

Roberts is hitting .298/.351/.363 this year in Hi A ball, at the age of 21, with 57 strikeouts against 25 walks in 383 AB.

Span hit .339/.410/.403 last year in Hi A ball, at the age of 21, with 25 strikeouts against 22 walks in 186 AB.

So Roberts is striking out at a higher rate (albeit just slightly) and Span walked a lot more. And from what I understand, the scouts value Span's tools more.

I mean, I guess maybe I could see taking Roberts over Span just because he doesn't have Span's AA setback on his record, but it's certainly not a clear-cut decision--the stats don't especially favor Roberts and neither do the scouting reports.

Roberts could just as easily fall on his face in AA like Span has, and maybe do worse.

by ubelmann on Jul 28, 2006 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Roberts last two weeks

It depends on whether you believe Roberts is just hot right now or if you believe he's turned a corner. Because since he came to the Twins, he's been outstanding. It could be he was just in a slump early in the year and now he's playing like he did last year. I don't know. But the way he's playing now, he's the best outfield prospect in the organization.

ANyway, the limitations of season average numbers, especially in the minor leagues, is they don't take into account trends.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 28, 2006 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually...

ANyway, the limitations of season average numbers, especially in the minor leagues, is they don't take into account trends.

Personally, I would say that is sometimes an advantage. People can get pretty worked up sometimes about a hot week here or there when sometimes it really is just a hot streak or a cold streak and really not very meaningful. I mean, remember all of the hand-wringing about how Cuddyer was never going to pan out, since he always struggled in April? And about how David Ortiz probably wouldn't be all that good because he was so inconsistent from month-to-month?

Roberts has been striking out a little less with the Twins than with the Reds, but it's been a very small decrease, and is still striking out twice as often as he walks, even on this hot streak. At any rate, there's nothing in his Twins stat line that is different enough from his Reds stat line to convince me he's turned any sort of corner. Maybe he has, but it hasn't shown up in his underlying performance indicators so far.

Now, if you can give me reliable scouting info that says Roberts is a much better defender than Span, then I'm willing to listen. I've never been sold on Span as a good CF since the only thing you ever hear about him is he's fast, which is far from the only thing required to play CF well (as you've mentioned before).

But right now, it doesn't look to me like Roberts is clearly better. Maybe somewhat better, but clearly better is a stretch.

by ubelmann on Jul 28, 2006 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I sort of agree..

For clarification I don't think Roberts is any sort of great prospect, simply a better prospect than Span.

I think Roberts has a more consistent track record (OPS greater than 800 in all but the first half of this year) and should get bonus points for being able to turn his speed in stolen bases-something Span has yet to do with any real regularity.

With regards to turning the corner, Roberts' month of July saw him hit 24 ground balls and 22 line drives compared to 22 ground balls and ZERO line drives in June. (For comparison, Span has hit 207 ground balls and just 30 line drives on the year.) So it would seem he is driving the ball better. Obviously 1 good month doesn't make a prospect, but it is encouraging to see that performance out of someone we got for Juan Castro.

by captnhawaii on Jul 28, 2006 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Robbins, Valencia, Parmelee, Benson

All those guys are ahead of Span in my book. I used to be higher on Span, until I heard a reputible scout say he needs work in the outfield. Most of his value is in defense. if he can't read balls off the bat, he's marginal. I'd rather have Roberts right now. And if Span is not the defensive player I thought he was, then Romero, Guzman, and Oeltjen are ahead of him. That's six outfielders ahead of him in the system, not counting the guys in the majors or AAA.

As for pitchers, I'd say Morlan is the next. But I wouldn't discount Duensing, Waldrop, Rainville, Durbin, Bonsor, Kemp, Mullins, Burnett, Smit, Fox, Sosa, Pino, Mijeras, Powers, and Leatherman, in that order.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 28, 2006 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

Rainville

Would already be on the voting list if he had not gotten hurt this year. Span is probally winning due to name Reconition but after him the other guys aren't as well know so may people will start looking at the stats. i could post links to the persons stats if you want me to for next time.

Also I will Be working out of town next week and not have Access to the internet If someone wants to Take over for me on Monday they can. Other wise i will start posting again when I get back probally Next Sunday or Saturday night.

by FrozenTed9 on Jul 28, 2006 6:22 PM EDT reply actions

I've been

I've been voting for Romero for awhile now. I don't know who can still vote for Moses.

Like I said, i think it has gotten to the point we are just voting for the guys we have heard about the most.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 29, 2006 4:16 AM EDT reply actions

I follow these guys

I vote for the guys I think have the best chance to break through. I voted for Robbins the last three times. I'll probably vote for Romero in one of the next two. I wouldn't vote for Moses for a while, probably in the mid-teens.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 29, 2006 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Valencia

I'm not quite sure waht to make of Danny Valencia, maybe someone can explain it to me. How does he rank here? I realize he had a very good college career, but the Twins drafted him this year in the 19th round! He's not even a first round pick. Robbins was at least a 4th round pick.

I'm not real high on Span right now either, but i do think he'll be fine. Roberts is riding a nice hot streak, but he did nothing for a year before that despite three years of college. Moses has been really hot of late to bring his average up to .255. Sadly, I think this is a good representation for where the Twins farm system is right now.

by SethSpeaks on Jul 29, 2006 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Valencia and Robbins...

...Are comparable prospects. I noticed Beloit lists Robbins as a first baseman, though he played some third in college. Valencia might have more upside because he is a good third base prospect and it's tougher to come by guys with that kind of arm. If Robbins had a more consistent college career, he would have been a first rounder for sure. But perhaps he turned a corner in his junior year and this is the kind of player he will be for the Twins, which is very good compensation for Jacque Jones, IMHO.

Why did Valencia slip? It's a mystery. But the rumor is that teams drafted for signability more than any draft in recent memory, and he said he would not sign for less than first- round money. I maintain he is the steal of the draft. The Twins drafted a lot of guys who other teams passed on because early indications were they would be tough to sign. And they have signed some of those guys, including Valencia, who eneded up signing for considerably less than he told clubs he would sign for.

It remains to be seen whether they can sign fifth rounder Devin Shephard, who is a first-round talent who slipped because of his schlarship to one of the Oklahoma schools. He said he won't sign for less than $1 million.

And the Twins have that in the budget yet, but are trying to sign Jeff Manship, a right handed pitcher from Notre Dame with some of that money. If they don't get that done, they could sign Shephard, which would make this the best position player draft in recent memory. If they do sign Manship (probably to a 2007 contract), they would also sign 7th rounder Jonathan Waltenbury, who has been described as another Justin Morneau, partly because he's Canadian, I suppose. I would be happpy if they signed either Shephard or Waltenbury and Manship. But we'll see.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 29, 2006 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't forget

Jared Mitchell, who some rank as the best overall athlete in the draft.

by wcooley on Jul 29, 2006 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he's going to LSU

Every indication is, he will go to college unless the Twins offer more money than they have in the budget. It would be nice to sign him, but I lost hope of that after i read the interviews of him while he works out for football.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jul 29, 2006 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps

Perhaps, but in general the votes are all spread out and it seems the mainstream names are taking the votes. Frankly, i don't know a ton about these guys specifically either at this point. I've only stil been voting for Romero because I still hold the hold the (perhaps vain) hope that he could play CF.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 29, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions