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Leading Off

I posted the following in Seth's comments section over the weekend.  He suggested I find a larger audience for it, so here it is.

You want something to complain about? How about this: The Twins have the 2nd worst OBP in the league by their leadoff batters, an awful .322. (Surprisingly, Billy Beane's A's are the worst at .317.) And for once Shannon Stewart isn't to blame. His .355 is the only reason we aren't dead last in this category. Mind you, .355 isn't anything to brag about either. If the Twins other #1 batters matched that, we'd still only be tied for 8th place in the AL --- tied with the Royals, I might add. OTOH, we'd be only 1 point behind the Tigers and 2 points behind the White Sox.

Star-divide

So, if Stewart isn't at fault, who is? Well, Gardy's disastrous experiment with Lew Ford leading off had a lot to do with it. He ranks dead last out of 22 batters who were given at least 75 PA's in the #1 spot with a putrid .273. But the biggest out machine for the Twins is the incumbent, Luis Castillo. He ranks 19th with a .313 OBP. But he has nearly 200 leadoff PA's. Among those with 150 or more, he is 16th and last. (BTW, Stewart is 11th in this category.)

Why is Castillo doing so poorly? This might have something to do with it. In AB's where he puts the ball in play on the first pitch he is batting an incredible .143! The rest of the team is at .364. Even The Cuban Dictators were around .200. This guy should go up to the plate with the take sign on every time. (Ironically, he's second only to Morneau when hitting with an 0-1 count (.471), so taking a strike shouldn't hurt too much).

So, what should be done? Get him out of the leadoff spot immediately. He was doing all right in the #2 spot (.357), but not nearly as good as Punto (.394). Among all Twins regulars, Mauer is tops in OBP (.446), but of course he shouldn't lead off. So, who is second best at .414? None other than Mr. Leadership Jason Bartlett, now buried in the #9 hole. Simple solution: switch #1 and #9 and watch the offense take off.

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Funny...
I was thinking the same thing over the weekend. Thanks for the numbers to back it up!

by ghost42 on Jul 31, 2006 9:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well done
I've been an advocate of dropping Castillo in the order for some time now.  There's a giant stigma as to what kind of a player can lead off, however, so I doubt we'll see any dynamic change in the batting order.  It's unfortunate.

by Jesse on Jul 31, 2006 2:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not...
...that keen on moving Castillo out of the leadoff spot.

Sure, Castillo had an awful June, hitting just .206/.250/.255, but in July he's hitting .303/.364/.434.  

Castillo's also 3rd on the team (behind Cuddyer and Ford) in pitches per plate appearance, so while the small sample says Castillo has been having trouble when he puts the ball in play on the first pitch, it doesn't seem like he's really putting the ball in play on the first pitch that often.  Plus, as a leadoff hitter, getting the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches can be pretty beneficial, as it lets the other hitters get a feel for what the pitcher's got and generally wears the other pitcher out.  Castillo's P/PA is one of the reasons you always hear people say he has "professional at-bats."

Anecdotally, Castillo seems to be limping less these days than he was in June, so that may have some bearing as to why he dropped off so badly in June but is now putting up more typical "Castillo numbers."

Also, batting order matters, but it doesn't matter all that much.  I don't really think it's worth it to mess with anyone's head at this point, especially since Castillo's been getting on base at a decent clip lately.

by ubelmann on Jul 31, 2006 2:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

At
At the moment, I'd lead off Punto and hit Bartlett second.  Castillo can hit 9th.

But that wont happen.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Jul 31, 2006 5:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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