Morneau Deserves MVP Votes

by SDTwinsFan on Aug 18, 2006 11:12 PM EDT

Now I'm not dumb enough to say that Justin Morneau should win the AL MVP, simply because David Ortiz is unbelievable, but he certainly deserves consideration. There was an espn poll today that listed candidates for League MVP among those listed: Jeter, Young, Ortiz, Dye, Thome and Mauer. How can people work for ESPN and not include Morneau on that list??? It's an absolute joke that he was left off. Aside from Ortiz, none of those players put up the overall numbers that Morneau has? Lets take a look:

(Parentheses (sp?) represent league rank)

Jeter: Avg = .341(2) HR = 10(71) RBI = 72(22)
Young: Avg = .312(15) HR = 12(52) RBI = 80(15)
Ortiz: Avg = .283(42) HR = 43(1) RBI = 113(1)
Dye: Avg = .324(6) HR = 32(6) RBI = 89(9)
Thome: Avg = .295(28) HR = 36(2) RBI = 90(8)
Mauer: Avg = .359(1) HR = 10(71) RBI = 68(28)

Morneau: Avg = .316(11) HR = 31(7) RBI = 104(3)

While it might not be the most accurate way to assess a players value compared to the rest of the league (due to the failure to include intangibles that play such a huge part in baseball), I have taken an average of the league ranks of each player in the triple crown categories. When the ranks are averaged the top three look like this:

Name: LRAVG:
Morneau 7.00
Dye 7.00
Ortiz 14.67

Now obviously this method is flawed as Ortiz's average kills him in the rankings, but you readers should get the point. It is interesting to note that another notable player left out is "Pronk" in Cleveland:

AVG = .302(22) HR = 35(3) RBI = 105(2)

When the award is handed out at the end of the season, David Ortiz will win it with the vast majority of the vote, but it would sure be nice to see Morneau get some votes, especially if the Twins make the playoffs.

A few questions for some friendly group discussion to close with:

If the Red Sox don't make the playoffs, does it hurt Ortiz's candidacy? (Santana for Cy Young in 05)

Who wins the Twins MVP award this year?

Who wins in the NL MVP?

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Comments

MVP

All I keep hearing, ESPN mostly, is that it's between Jeter and Ortiz and they act like whichever team wins that division the MVP will come from there. I think it's a joke that Jeter's even mentioned, his BA is fantastic and we get to hear constantly how he's the "captain" of the Yankees but, there are better candidates starting with Morneau. Hell, I don't even know why Mauer is on that list, Morneau and Santana have been more valuable to the team, IMO.

For the NL, I think they'll vote for David Wright. The media has over-exposed him so much this year I'm sick of hearing about him already and he's only 24. I think Beltran has been more valuable but, oh well. If Pujols can drag the Cardinals to another division title he may get it. I'd vote for him over Wright.

by eswanson55 on Aug 18, 2006 11:56 PM EDT reply actions

AL MVP should be between...

...Jeter and Mauer. Both have phenomenal numbers this year. There's no discussion about how good Morneau has been if Mauer's not getting on base in front of him providing offense from a position that is difficult to get offensive production from.

Ortiz for MVP is a joke. He's not even the best DH in the league, and he has no defensive value. ZERO.

by ubelmann on Aug 19, 2006 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I agree on Ortiz

IF all you have to do is get your fat ass out there four times and swing hard you shouldn't be considered an MVP.

But with Morneau and Mauer it's a toss-up, if only for that fact that Morneau's power is what the Twins have been so desperately seeking. Think about that home run off Zumaya (and with MVP debates we can be subjective, see Kirk Gibson). Without Morneau, the Twins would be punchless in terms of power.

Of course, Mauer has a huge defenseive edge.

by wcooley on Aug 19, 2006 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Morneau

I think, and voters tend to agree, that the MVP is the guy who helps the team win the most. In that case, Morneau is clearly the Twins MVP because his hot hitting exactly coincides with the team's incredible run of .730 baseball. Even though Mauer has been consistently excellent all year, if Morneau hadn't come around, I'm pretty sure this team would be fighting with Cleveland for third place in the division and selling off as many parts as it can.

It's the same reasoning that got Shannon Stewart enough votes in 2003 to finish fourth in the MVP voting. The Blue Jays were closer the the Yankees than the Twins were to the White Sox when they traded him, and they went into the tank thereafter. The Twins were out of it by most analysts' views and he put the team on his back and carried it to the playoffs. If you took the Blue Jays' record before the trade and the Twins record after the trade, it was something like 102-60.

Still, considering that ESPN and many major media outlets spend 90 percent of their coverage on coastal teams, the MVP will likely come out of either Boston or New York. Just as in 2003, the Twins representative will finish after all the coastal players with a chance. That's why the best Kirby ever did in the voting was third. This is how I think the voting will go:

Derek Jeter
David Ortiz
Justin Morneau
Carlos Guillen
Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 19, 2006 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I

Have to disagree on not ever allowing a DH to win. It simply requires a particularily good season offensivly.

I was considering how to add fielding to VORP when comparing fielders too DH's. I was thinking adding FRAR to a position players VORP, then comparing them to a DH would be fair. I think if you aren't at leas a replacement level fielder, you should be DH'ing anyway.

I wouldn't be TOO angrey if Ortiz won it, btu that is mostly because I'm used to the media bias. One problem with Ortiz is Manny Ramirez has actually eclipsed him in VORP at this point. Howeveer, while Manny takes the field, he is badly detrimental to the defense in left, and shouldn't that count against him?

Travis Hafner has the highest VORP in baseball (only because Pujols has been hurt though), but should the MVP award go to a player on a sub-500 team, especially when there are several GREAT candidates? Jim Thome is right behind Ortiz in many offensive catagories, and only two runs back in VORP, what merit does he deserve? Jeter has a slightly better VORP than Mauer, but Mauer is superior defensivly. Then again, right behind Mauer and Ortiz is Vernon Wells who has the 6th best VORP in teh AL, and plays a good center field.

This all interesting. In the end, I think the best players are Jeter, Mauer, and Wells, for being right in the middle of the tight elite pack while playing premeum deensive positions (there it is again though, VORP already gives them credit for playign those positions), and Travis hafner, for being almost 20% ahead of the second highest VORP'ed AL player. Frankly, Morneau is down much furter on the list.

In the NL, it has to be Pujols or Beltran. That's really all there is to say.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 19, 2006 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

VORP

Most voters for the MVP think that VORP is an acronym for the bad guys in James Bond movies. VORP will not come into play.

And as far as MVP voting goes, I like the question: "Where would the team be without him?" This question eliminates Hafner and boosts Morneau, as CMath pointed out.

by wcooley on Aug 19, 2006 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Heh

Now we need a stat called SPECTOR

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 19, 2006 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

That Should Be

SPECTER

as in the SPecial Executive for Crime, Terror, Extortion, and Revenge.

These largely incoherent thoughts were hurriedly scribbled down

by Victor @ Twinkie Town on Aug 21, 2006 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Right

Right you are. The question is, did you look that up on wikipedia?

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 21, 2006 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

mvp

i also have a hard time choking a dh as an mvp, but ortiz has been pretty unreal for the sox. he is the frontrunner for me. i don't see jeter as a competition because of his low power numbers, especially if morneau bumps his BA back up over .320. i think the mvp comes from a playoff team this year, so if the twins go, hopefully the buzz around morneau will pick up.

i also think morneau is the twins mvp. our pitching is great, especially radke and santana this half and the bullpen, but the increased run support is what is winning us games now. i think that there are a lot of players on the team who contribute a lot (punto, hunter, cuddyer) but morneau is the guy who comes through in the clutch. i saw an interesting statistic during the game and turns out that morneau is leading the league in 2 out rbis, followed by cuddyer and ortiz. you always hear how clutch ortiz is, but morneau has been solid for the twins offensively AND defensively. i think he is a viable candidate for the award.

nl mvp is a tough call. i think carlos beltran is the best candidate, but the vote might split with him and his teammates, wright and reyes, so pujols is definately a contender.

by dctwin on Aug 19, 2006 12:26 AM EDT reply actions

Jeter

Jeter would actually be a good choice for the MVP this season. He has one of the top few VORPs in baseball.

That being said, I think if the Twins make the playoffs, we just may see an M&M boy steal it, though it could be a problem of them taking each other's votes.

As with most MVP's, it will largely come down to who comes up the biggest down the stretch and who's team makes it in.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 19, 2006 6:05 AM EDT reply actions

HR+RBI Award

The MVP award needs to have its irrelevance spelled out in writing to prevent rogue voters from contaminating the award with ballots based on crazy factors like defensive contribution or offensive value relative to a player's position.

Just make a simple formula for the MVP: RBI + home runs. Batting average becomes the tie breaker. Only players on playoff teams are eligible.

That's a nice, simple formula that easily spells out the winner of an award that's become virtually meaningless anyway. It's a good compromise.

The ESPN buffoons already generally ignore defense and positional value. With the formula in place, they can also stop droning on about intangibles like clutch this and clubhouse that. Just add up the glory numbers and mail the DH/1b/Corner OF his award.

While they're at it, they can stop fussing over who's the best pitcher and just give the Cy to the guy with the highest Wins minus ERA differential. Or (Saves/2.5)-ERA for closers. For playoff teams only, of course.

Then again, maybe they could start over and make the MVP a real award for the player who is actually the most valuable. Guys like Mauer, Jeter, Sizemore, Wells, Ramirez, and Hafner are worthy of consideration for such an award this year, if only there were such a thing.

by LaBombo on Aug 20, 2006 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Umm

Why do that? that would only halt the progress of mainstream enlightenment? Just because voting sucks doesn't mean you should give up entirely.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 20, 2006 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions