Coming Clean
I get a lot wrong. Or, at least, when I am wrong, I am way wrong. In two instances, my friends have not allowed me to forget how wrong I was. Remember in 1997, when President Clinton launched an attack on suspected terrorist targets in Afghanistan and Sudan? He said that his information indicated Osama bin Laden and his top associates were meeting at a training camp when the U.S. fired their missles. But the attacks came on the same day that Miss Monica Lewinsky wrapped up her testimony before a grand jury investigating whether Clinton lied under oath about their, um, meetings. I was sure this was a "wag the dog" scenario, and announced that "we have nothing to fear from Osama bin Laden."
My second worst prediction came in 1998, when I argued that Ryan Leaf would be a "much better" NFL quarterback than Peyton Manning. How was I supposed to know that Leaf had a five-cent head to go with that $11.25 million signing-bonus arm?
Just this year, in regards to the Twins, I posted in a diary that Justin Morneau might not ever live up to his potential, right before he got hotter than Hades. I also advocated that Twins start dumping players and give up on 2006, right before they went on a 51-20 tear and are now in the lead for the wild card. And just recently I passionately advocated the Kyle Lohse trade, right before the Twins rotation collapsed leaving them to rely on Garza, Bonser, Silva and "Bailing Twine" Brad Radke.
One thing that bothers me about many Twins blogs is that they always remind readers about what they were right about, but almost never mention where they were wrong. Sometimes I think we forget that when we are wrong, nobody cares, but when somebody like Terry Ryan is wrong, it is a very public mistake.
That felt good in a sensitive, modern-man sort of way. Now you'll have to excuse me, I have to go take a duke.
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82 comments
Comments
Right on
This bothers me, too, it's one of my pet peeves. I'll have to go back and make a list of all the things I was wrong about as well. It's more fun to do, because it isn't done as often.
by Jesse on Aug 28, 2006 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re:
(That was meant in an endearing, non-vicious way)
by TheMattWilke on Aug 28, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Correct.....
by twintown on Aug 28, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Too Bad we
Oh and don't worry about loshe he still has plenty of time to be horrible.
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 28, 2006 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kyle Lohse
by drnkmn on Aug 28, 2006 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Spare Arm
by wcooley on Aug 28, 2006 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not me
Not me. I've seen enough baseball to know that mediocre starters don't always have good starts, and that mediocre starters can also go on a run of nice starts. Of course, you can feel free to consider his ERA regressing towards 4.50 as "a downward spiral."
Lohse is the same pitcher he's always been--a guy that can give you about a league average ERA if you put him in front of a passable defense and give him more than four or five starts for the numbers to even out. He's neither as good as his sub-3.00 ERA in the NL or as bad as his plus-7.00 ERA in the AL would suggest.
The "how many chances" stuff is completely ridiculous. Last year, Lohse gave us a 4.18 ERA for an entire season. He's shown that he can be a league average starter. Then, this year, he had a rough start (like all of the non-Santana starters) in front of a wretched defense. While the others were improving their numbers in front of an improved defense, Lohse was in AAA, his major league stats frozen. Then Lohse was banished to the bullpen where he did good work overall. It wasn't about giving Lohse another "chance" in the rotation, it was about whether or not the Twins should replace Silva with someone who can put up a league average ERA.
He was run out of town because of personal issues, and maybe some misunderstanding about the difference between pitching and run prevention, but he wasn't run out of town because all of the sudden he became useless.
(And in the vein of wcooley's post, this all goes back to me being wrong about Batista. I trusted TR that Batista would be adequate in the field and couldn't have been more wrong. I also expected at the beginning of the season that Stewart would have at least average range, but the one positive aspect of his defense completely eroded. And Castro's (great) defensive stats from last year turned out to be an illusion, probably driven in large part by the weirdly anamolous 2005 Carlos Silva. The defense was terrible at the beginning of the season, and I certainly didn't see that coming. It was so terrible that it made it very easy to blame opponents' run totals on the pitchers when the defense was at least as responsible for some of those figures.)
by ubelmann on Aug 28, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem wasn't fielding
I'm sorry, but the evidence doesn't support blaming the Twins fielding. The problem was the Twins pitching. The pitching got better long before there were any substantive changes in the defense. And some of the pitchers never suffered to begin with. I believe Nathan and Rincon were both putting up decent numbers while the starters were floundering to start the year.
The Twins have two gold gloves up the middle and a potential third in Mauer. Castro was/is an above average defensive shortstop. Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Ford and Stewart all had their problems, but not when compared to some of the other stiffs playing those positions. The only real weakness was Batista's range and even he still had a decent arm.
I agree with your conclusion about Lohse to some extent. But I think Lohse struggled more than the other starters which is why he ended up at AAA. When he came back he was fine and I think it was mistake to let him go without more depth in the rotation. He is certainly better than Mike Smith.
by TT on Aug 28, 2006 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castro...
Range -- very poor.
Arm -- poor, would be much better suited at second base, though even then, it would be a below average arm. Terrible, noticable arc on his throws because they are so slow.
Hands -- this is the one where he's supposed to make up for his shortcomings--he makes all the easy plays, right?--well, not so much in the first half of the season with the Twins. He was dropping pop flies, dropping throws from Mauer, and mishandling grounders. Maybe he used to have good hands, but he didn't this year.
That's it. Castro did absolutely nothing well on defense this year and he did absolutely nothing well on offense. Anyone judging Castro's defense to be adequate didn't have his eyes open. In total, he was almost as detrimental to the team as Rondell White.
Stewart's range slipped to below average, and Tony Batista had less range than a stump in the ground. Cuddyer doesn't have very good range, either. Castillo has decent range to his right, but poor range to his left, gold glove be damned. The Twins had the worst defensive efficiency posted in the last 40 years after two months, and they were near the top of the league in most strikeouts and the top of the league in fewest walks allowed. It wasn't the pitching. Even Santana's BABIP was high when Lohse got demoted.
by ubelmann on Aug 29, 2006 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensive Efficiency
Really? I would be interested to know who did that research and where they got the splits to calculate defensive efficiency after the first two months of the season for the last 40 years. Frankly I doubt it is true.
But defensive efficiency simply measures the combination of pitching and fielding in any case. The Twins had some pretty poort pitching to start the year. And guys like Silva and Radke who usually easy flies and soft ground balls were getting hammered.
Part of that may be the pitching, part of it was that the Twins were facing a lot of the best offenses in the league the first couple months.
He was dropping pop flies, dropping throws from Mauer, and mishandling grounders. Maybe he used to have good hands, but he didn't this year.
And yet his fielding percentage this year is better than the Twins current shortstop.
Anyone judging Castro's defense to be adequate didn't have his eyes open.
Ore perhaps they didn't have their mind closed.
by TT on Aug 29, 2006 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Conclusions then evidence
- Santana had a rough start in April. Fans were talking about it, he was talking about it. He was getting hit. His opponents batting average dropped 42 points from .270 in April to .228 in May with the same defense behind him.
- Joe Nathan's opponents had averages of .160 and .150 in APril and May with the same defense behind him.
- Rincon's opponents had an average of .320 against him in April, it dropped to .216 in May with the same defense.
- Radke's opponents had averages of .374 and .352.
- Guerrier opponents were .404 in April and .235 in May with the same defense.
One last thing. Defensive efficiency measures hits per plate appearance minus home runs, strikeouts, and walks. It does not measure outfield assists, players caught stealing or double plays. In fact, since there are only 27 outs in a game, getting outs in any of these ways will damage a team's "defensive efficiency".
by TT on Aug 29, 2006 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong Stats
In response to your other post, ubelmann's comment about the worst defensive efficiency ever after two months was in comparison to season totals - at that point, the Twins were on a pace to post the worst defensive efficiency total ever recorded.
I don't think the defense completely absolves the pitchers of responsibility for the poor start, but I also don't think it makes sense to ignore the signs that point to the defense as a large contributor.
by BeefMaster on Aug 29, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right Stats
Which is totally innappropriate for obvious reasons since it was based almost entirely on one poor month of April. Its like saying Joe Mauer hit better than anyone in history in the month of June.
All four players' improved opponents' BA have a defense-independent factor that explain them
I think you missed the point. Nathan, regardless of his strikeout rate, did just fine despite the Twins defense in both April and May. And the differences from one month to the next are not attributable to just an increase in strikeouts or a decline in home runs. The fact that their strikeout rates increased, the number of home runs decreased AND the number of hits they gave up decreased all at the same time would indicate that it was the pitching, not the defense, that improved in May.
I also don't think it makes sense to ignore the signs that point to the defense as a large contributor.
I think there were some obvious problems with the defense, especially for a team that has traditionally relied on pitching and defense. The Twins did not play well in any department the first couple months. But I think there are a lot of people who were looking for reasons to blame the left side of the infield for the poor starting pitching. Thus the "worst in history" claim based on a questionable statistic.
by TT on Aug 29, 2006 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thick Headed
Part 1
No it isn't. The Twins, at that time, were on pace to have the worst defense in 40 years. that is, the defense currently on the field was currently playing very VERY poorly.
Part 2
He didn't miss the point, you just did. the pitchers numbers did start to improve in may, but they were still getting pretty poor results, because thee poor defense was still on the field behind them. Only in June did they really start to take off with the better D.
Part 3:
No one is saying the pitching wsn't bad, but we are saying that the defense was also a large contributor to the terrible results. Silva had an ERA over 9. That is bad pitching and bad defense. Bad defense was costing our pitchers a LOT.
And I don't think defensive efficiancy is a very iffy stat at all. it is very straight foreward.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 29, 2006 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Faith
Which is why you hold the beliefs you do. I know better than to demand proof of faith and I'm not going to try to convince you to the contrary. But you have mistated that "straight forward" stat several times.
For anyone who is following this, as I pointed out above, "defensive efficiency" does not consider outfield assists, double plays, pickoffs or catching people stealing in its measure. In fact it seems to penalize defenses which do these well.
the pitchers numbers did start to improve in may, but they were still getting pretty poor results, because the poor defense was still on the field behind them.
You keep saying that. But Nathan's results didn't improve in May, they were always good but they actually got a little worse. And Guerrier's improved dramatically. Its funny how the baseline problem was defense but it effected pitchers results almost randomly.
the defense currently on the field was currently playing very VERY poorly.
If you include the pitching, yes. Anyone who watched could see that hitters were hitting the ball hard off some of the Twins pitchers. Sure you would have liked some of them to be caught and if they had the outstanding infield defense of a few years ago some of them would have been. But that wasn't the problem. The primary problem was that the Twins pitchers were getting hit hard.
And at shortstop, Bartlett has been worse than Castro was statistically. So if it was the fielding that caused the poor "defensive efficiency", that change certainly didn't help matters.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sigh
It doesn't penalize anything, and it is straightofreward. It is a simple measure of the percentage of balls in play converted to outs, and as such, it must be interpreted in such way. DP's are in no way taken into account, nor the other things you mentioned. This means those must also be considered when veiwing the whole picture, but they are also in no way prejudiced against.
Part 2:
You keep using relievers as evidence, which is already dicey since they have such small sample sizes. Even from year to year you can't usually expect consistant performance, much less from month to month. Guerrier improved from April to May because he tripled his strikeout rate, halved his walk rate, and stopped giving up homers (from 2 in 10 innings to 0 in 19 innings). That's why Guerrier turned it around. Like I said though, you can't really decide much either way from just those few innings.
Part 3:
It is difficult to say what the bigger culprit was, the pitching or the defense, but both definitly were significant problems. That is why I'd like t do some dip research with hit in play types to solve issues like this.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so straight forward
Well, no it isn't. When a player is thrown out at second trying to stretch a single to a double that ball in play was converted to an out. But it isn't counted as one in the formula for "defensive efficiency". And foul balls count as in play when they are caught, but not when they aren't. A double play only counts as one out, but at least it counts as one. People caught stealing. which I think is a defensive skill, don't count at all.
which is already dicey since they have such small sample sizes
You mean small data set, we are using all the data, not a sample. But you can't complain about that if you are going to use data for one month of a season.
Guerrier improved from April to May because he tripled his strikeout rate, halved his walk rate, and stopped giving up homers
And, not coincidentally, he gave up fewer hits. Its funny how when guys stop getting pounded, balls stop going through the infield, past outfielders or over the fence for home runs.
It is difficult to say what the bigger culprit was, the pitching or the defense,
I'm glad we agree.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
THose all aren't bals in play being converted, those are baserunning outs (Except for the foul outs). While important, they are not discriminated against.
Part 2:
This is not a data set. A set would be a group of several samples of data. A sample need not only be portions of the available data.
Not really worth arguing over definitions, but I know it probably gets you off.
Part 3:
Never said there could be some of that, as he likely started to give up better hits in play, but you are ignoring the importance of defense.
Guerrier isn't a good subject anyway, since he got hurt and only pitched 2 innings in June, before the defense really changed. In August, his periphrials have been completely different from what they were in May, despite similar results, so you end up with too many variables to really make a decent conclusion for or against anything, except to show how dicey it is to make conclusions off reliever's 15 innings in 13 games a month.
Part 4:
This implies you do believe BOTH pitching and defense play large roles in run prevention, and it is difficult to tell which hurt us worse at the beggining of the year. If that is the case, we should stop arguing, because we are sitting on the same page.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And double plays
by cmathewson on Aug 29, 2006 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does that say about Bartlett?
by TT on Aug 29, 2006 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 29, 2006 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does that say about Bartlett?
Castro didn't make one play behind second base in his 48 games bartlett has made 17.
If true, that may indicate that Bartlett is out of position. Or it may indicate that Castro compensated for Batista's range by shading toward third. Or ...
by TT on Aug 29, 2006 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 29, 2006 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How?
But Bartlett isn't getting to more balls. That's why he has fewer put outs and assists than Castro. If he was getting to more balls, he would have more.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Name One
Like what? The only thing I can think of it that Bartlett is getting to more balls than Castro but turning fewer of them into an out either directly or as an assist. Are the Twins pitchers giving up a lot more infield singles now?
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kyle Lohse
While I agree with ubelmann's analysis of Lohse's abilities as a league average pitcher, I think that Garza, Bonser, and Baker all have a greater upside than Lohse does in the future. Lohse could still have provided more value than Silva down the stretch--but remember, Silva had a better-than-league average ERA pitching in front of that same 2005 Twins' defense.
I also think it would be wise of management to get each of the trio of rookies some starts down the stretch in the playoff race. If both Liriano and Radke aren't able to pitch in the playoffs, this team will have long odds to advance past the first round. Some of the national media hype has centered around how the Twins have little playoff experience. If I recall correctly, Cuddyer, Hunter, Radke, and to a lesser extent, Santana, played significant roles on the team in each of the 2002-04 playoff appearance, while Rincon, Nathan, and Morneau all played big roles in 2004. The experience of the three pitcher could pay big dividends next year.
by BayAreaTwinsFan on Aug 28, 2006 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
I was wrong about the Tigers too. I thought their pitching was NEVER going to come aorund, but the defense shored up, the young pitchers finally broke through, and now they give up very few runs.
I was wrong about Sisco, as I advocated keeping him in AAA until w felt sure he was ready. Well, he was ready.
THose are the main things I can think of.
Oh, right. I, with almost everybody else, was wrong on June 7 when I thought the Twins were totally done when it came to the playoffs. Well, look at us now baby, look at us now.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 28, 2006 10:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of being wrong
Mike Smith vs. KC 3.0 IP 5 h 4 er 4 3 bb 1 so
Garza vs. KC 7.2 IP 5 h 2 er 1 bb 7 so
I know, small sample size, but some things are clear after just a couple innings. Unless you're Satchell Paige, I'll take talent over experience.
by wcooley on Aug 30, 2006 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, who?
No, one.
Unless you're Satchell Paige, I'll take talent over experience.
Does Mark Redman really have more talent than Garza? I don't think so.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You're right
Somebody on this site thought that Mike Smith should get the starts that Garza is now getting, unless my memory fails me.
by wcooley on Aug 30, 2006 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was TT
That was TT, though he now denies it. This is what we have seen from him since the old Twins Territory days and over at the DTFC. He'll argue a point until everyone just stops feeding the Twins Troll. Then when he's proven wrong he denies he ever said it. in particular, he said Mike Smith was the better choice than garza because Smith has more major league experience. Which is true, but none of it is distinguished.
It's this kind of rhetoric that makes me think he's just playing games and he really doesn't believe all this stuff. The Bartlett debate above is laughable. Anyone with two eyes in his head can see that Bartlett is the better player on both sides of the ball. The fact that TT continues to argue for Castro is more evidence that he's disingenuous.
DON'T FEED THE TROLLS.
by cmathewson on Aug 30, 2006 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DTFC
By discouraging posters from getting into fruitless arguments, TT makes it easy for moderators like Jane to be the loudest voice over there. After I left, I scanned the threads for a week and 90% of them were either comments by Jane or reprints from the papers posted by Jan. At one point, Jane said, "I wonder where everyone went?"
TippyCanoe said it himself, "It's the moderators job to discourage posting. The less posters we have here, the better." Spoken like a true DTFC moderator. I wonder how much traffic the site will get when it becomes a community of moderators and little else.
by cmathewson on Aug 30, 2006 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TT
"There's no good reason to prefer Smith to Garza.
Smith got 9 batters out while giving up 4 runs. Garza got 8 batters out while giving up 7 runs.
If Garza puts up another performance like that you can stop talking about nerves and recognize the reality that he isn't ready to get big league hitters out. Both Munro and Smith have at least done that in the past." End quote TT
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 30, 2006 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
edit
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 30, 2006 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Proving the point
Thanks for proving my point. It doesn't say anything at all about giving future starts to Smith.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong again
This is cleary advocating giving Garza's starts to Smith or Munro.
by wcooley on Aug 30, 2006 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only to those who draw the wrong conclusions
No, it isn't. In fact it says "If Garza puts up another performance like this" ... He didn't. He did pretty well his second time out and even better this last time. The question was whether there was a good reason to use Smith in the past.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TT
by wcooley on Aug 30, 2006 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets put this in context:
"
Other Options
"Right now, there really isn't anyone else the Twins can try."
Baker, Gassner, Guerrier, even Smith or Munro would all be better options if Garza doesn't do any better than his last outing. I don't think Garza gets more than one more outing like that before they turn to Baker. Of course he may settle in and do just fine.
by TT on Sun Aug 13, 2006 at 03:54:16 PM CDT
[ Reply to This ]
Glad you're not pulling the strings...
Smith? There's no good reason to prefer Smith to Garza.
by ubelmann on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 01:20:17 AM CDT
[ Parent | Reply to This ]
Objective Results
"There's no good reason to prefer Smith to Garza."
Smith got 9 batters out while giving up 4 runs. Garza got 8 batters out while giving up 7 runs.
If Garza puts up another performance like that you can stop talking about nerves and recognize the reality that he isn't ready to get big league hitters out. Both Munro and Smith have at least done that in the past.
by TT on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 08:19:59 AM CDT
[ Reply to This ]
You will notice that Baker, not Smith, is the person I suggest they will turn to if Garza fails. And that all I said, was that "even Smith and Munro" would do better than Garza did in his first start.
So if you are looking for liars, look at the people who insist I advocated that Smith take Garza's starts and then pull a quote out of context to support it.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then
Of right, the troll part.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trolls
That long-winded discussion was whether there was any reason to think Smith would succeed if Garza continued to pitch the way he did in his first game.
The real question is why were you arguing about Smith, when I clearly said Baker and mentioned Munro and Smith only at the end of a list of five other alternatives.
And the answer, I guess, is that you are trolls.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
"If Garza puts up another performance like that you can stop talking about nerves and recognize the reality that he isn't ready to get big league hitters out. Both Munro and Smith have at least done that in the past." Taken with out the other comment it really seems like you were advocating These 2 guys which was not your intention.
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 30, 2006 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps, but
Maybe. But you can find several places in that long thread where I directly rejected the idea I was saying that Smith should take Garza's place:
"Mike Smith is no option at all, much less better than Garza."
Maybe, but its not clear Garza is any option at all either.
...
I don't think it is likely Smith is going to be back in the rotation any time soon. The Twins have other guys to gamble on even if Garza can't do the job.
"Garza is young, learning quickly, and shows high promise AND performance in all those areas."
All of which is irrelevant to what happens if he can't get more than 8 batters out without giving up 7 runs. Which was where this started. Smith has shown he can do better than that - the Twins actually won the game he started. But obviously Baker and Bonser are ahead of him and probably Gassner. I mentioned Smith in the same breath as Munro.
So you might ask why one ambiguous statement got taken out of context and used here to support something the rest of the thread contradicted.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Memories
I don't think you will find me saying Smith should get any starts over Garza. I think you will see me questioning whether Garza would be any more effective than Smith. And we don't know the answer to that since Smith didn't get the chance did he? Garza's performance yesterday is no more surprising than his first game and if he struggles the next time out that won't be a surprise either.
The fact is that Redman, the veteran, pitched a shutout yesterday and Garza didn't. Redman's team won, Garza's lost. I think most of us would rather have had Redman's results than Garza's. Garza certainly has more talent than Radke, but I wouldn't put him in the playoff rotation ahead of Radke at his point. And if the Twins still had Redman, I would put him out there instead of Garza too.
The Bartlett debate above is laughable. Anyone with two eyes in his head can see that Bartlett is the better player on both sides of the ball.
What is really interesting is how fast some people abandon statistics when they contradict their predjudices. Bartlett has, on average, more erros, fewer assists, fewer putouts and fewer double plays than Castro. He even has a worse fielding percentage. And people still insist Bartlett is a much better fielder.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
C'mon TT
by wcooley on Aug 30, 2006 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get a lot of things wrong
And I was wrong about Bartlett's hitting. I expected him to be at about .250, not .350. And I expected him to fade after his hot start. He hasn't. Whatever his defensive deficiencies, his bat has made up for them so far.
And I was wrong about Batista, who I thought would at least hit a few home runs and play adequate third base.
And I was wrong about Punto, who I thought was a utility player.
I was wrong about Rabe, who I thought was a AAAA player and not even a very good one.
I was wrong about Bonser who I thought had a career year last year at AAA.
I was wrong about Baker who I thought would at least be an adequate major league starter.
I was wrong about Silva who I thought would pitch about the way he had the last two years.
I was wrong about Radke, who I expected to be a solid number two starter with Santana.
I was wrong about the Twins having the best playoff rotation in baseball.
I was wrong about Lohse who I expected to pitch about the same as last year.
I was wrong about the Twins ability to come back and make the playoffs.
Of course, in the future I will likely be proven wrong about some of the things on that list being wrong.
f you would seriously prefer Mike Smith or Mark Redman to Matt Garza, then no one should take what you write seriously.
Anyone who would seriously prefer Garza's performance to Redman's yesterday is not to be taken seriously.
I would take Redman, or Wells for that matter, and put him in the rotation ahead of Garza. That does not mean that Garza won't be the best choice the Twins have for the playoffs by the end of the month. But I don't think it is a coincidence that Redman pitched a shutout while Garza was giving up two runs against a worse hitting team. It would not be a shock if Garza struggles with a different umpire against a better hitting team.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Radke
I veiw Garza as more Radke's long term heir, not a short term replacement. Radker has possibly been our best pitcher during our run.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends
And how are those two things related?
The fact is Radke has more experience than Garza. Garza has more talent than Radke. Which do you take, talent or experience. The answer is pretty clear, "it depends".
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny
I'm not about to dive on the grenade for TT here, but he brings up a very good point. This site tends to be extremely SABR-heavy, which is great. (somehow, a solid argument for Lohse being a victim was created out of SABRmetrics) But then, in defense of Bartlett, we get a "forget the stats and open your eyes" argument? Seems a bit out-of-character for this site...
by TStahr on Aug 30, 2006 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I think that Bartlett is an improvement over Castro, but I do think it's interesting that the stats do not show this. One question: Do Bartlett's recent struggles in the field have anything to do with playing in 1000 straight games? That's gotta wear on a SS.
by wcooley on Aug 30, 2006 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensive
The one I do like is defeensive efficiancy. DEF is the whole picture for the entire team, so it isn't affected by, say, the third baseman gettng more grounders than usual compared to the shortstop. It is affected by the pitcher's ground-ball flay-ball ratios (fly ball pitchers, while they give up more extra base hits, record more outs since fly balls are easier to convert to outs than grounders). DEF doesn't pretend to be something it isn't. You simply divide batters out by balls in play and get a percentage, and the data is presented as such.
DEF is also not the whole story. As some have said, DP rates, catcher's arms, outfield assists, and a numbeer of other things all are important aspects of defense that DEF doesn't deal with. I think, though, it is good that DEF doesn't deal with this, ecause you are given more pure data to INCORPORATE into yur conclusions. Several strands of pure data is ALWAYS better than one, less clear, convoluted number.
in the end, though, I think the most important thing for judging a defense is empirical observation. It is very difficult to fairly adn objectivly quantify range, or arm strength, or any other specific attribute, especially those of individual players, with numbers. Using the Bartlett situation as an example, using what i have seen, which is a particularily large percentage of the Twin's play time this season, both in person and on television, Jason Bartlet fields a significantly higher number of balls than Juan Castro was capable of doing.
Individual defense, I believe, is the one part of the game statistics and mathematics will never be able to well explain.
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 30, 2006 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fans and Defense
A player who takes four steps steps to a ball looks quicker than another player who takes three longer steps even if the second guy gest their faster. A player who dives for a ball looks like he made a better play than a guy gets the same ball on his feet. And fans think that dive adds a lot more range than it really does - just like diving into first is almost always a bad idea.
Moerover, sometimes I don't think fans understand the game well enough to even judge a play. An example is the debate over a play earlier this spring where Morneau let a throw fly over him on an attempted double play. There were people outraged that Gardy blamed Morneau for not coming off the bag to make the catch. They thought he ought to have blamed the "bad" throw. But I think any serious student of the game would realize that the guy turning the double play is trying to get the throw off as quickly as possible, sometimes off balance with someone trying to take him out. He is supposed to get the throw off as accurately as he can. The only time he isn't going to throw is if he is thinks he will end up heaving it into the stands. Otherwise, the first baseman is supposed to catch it, whether its four feet up the line or four feet over his head. If that means moving off the bag, thats tough.
In short, when a fan claims fielding ability is obvious to anyone who watches there is plenty of reason to be sceptical. Especially when their conclusions conflict with the professional opinions of people who have trained to discern the differences and are good enough at it that they get paid to do
As for fielding stats. I think they are all suspect, but the ones that claim to being comprehensive are the most suspect.
Even where stats have a clear meaning, the fans using them sometimes don't really understand what the numbers mean or their limitations. I have heard fans use fielding percentage to support a claim that a player had "stone hands" when someone familiar with the stat would realize that it could just as easily be a "scattergun arm".
The most likely explantation for Castro having more plays is that he got more chances. In fact, that is the only explanation I can think of except that he is a better fielder than Bartlett. And that doesn't explain why Castro had a better fielding percentage at all.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 30, 2006 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding Percentage
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If not fans nor statistics, then what?
Fans can judge the speed of a batted ball intuitively, though not precisely. But there are a host of other factors that go into the play that fans are generally oblivious to: Positioning, situational tendencies, whether runners are in motion or not, how fast the hitter is, etc. Still, I think fans know when they withness a great lay, like Punto's Brooks Robinson impression last night, and an average play, like one of the slow grounders Bartlett fielded. The former got a standing ovation. The latter got mild applause. So fans can judge good defense, but we have a hard time agreeing about it without any objective ways to talk about it. I think Bartlett has much better range than Castro because I've sen him make plays that Castro just gave up on. You might disagree and there's little I can do to prove my point, except through statistics. And if you're skeptical about both stats and my observations as a fan, there's nothing I can do.
And that's the problem. Neither player has enough chances to say one way or another whether the difference between them is statistically meaningful. It could be bad luck that Bartlett has fewer chances. It could be that Liriano and Santana have allowed fewer ground balls in front of Bartlett than Lohse and Santana did in front of Castro. It could be that Silva is inducing more fly balls than he did when Castro played behind him. Or that Bonsor is more of a fly ball pitcher than Baker. It could be all of the above.
All we can say is it is unlikely to be that Castro is more skilled than Bartlett. Why? Because of the myriad times when we all saw Castro jogging after balls as they slowly rolled into left field; or the numerous times his throw was late and it was scored an infield hit; or the seven times he misplayed balls that were not scored errors. We all know that Bartlett is more than a second faster from home to first and that speed should affect his range. We all know he throws the ball 80 mph while Castro throws the ball 60 mph. In short, there are meaningful ways to compare them in terms of their skills that do not rely on the small sample sizes or the good or bad impressions that one play or two can make.
I don't expect you to agree because it's not in your nature. But others on this board might see the wisdom of it.
by cmathewson on Aug 30, 2006 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How important are they?
How misplayed balls has Morneau had that were not scored as errors? I ask because I suspect this is a stat kept to support an argument rather that evaluate players impartially.
We all know that Bartlett is more than a second faster from home to first and that speed should affect his range.
I don't think that is true, quickness and speed aren't the same. And range includes things like angle to the ball. In fact, I would add this as another of the factors that fans don't really understand.
We all know he throws the ball 80 mph while Castro throws the ball 60 mph.
We do? Do they really throw at the same speed consistently? Do we also know who gets rid of the ball more quickly?
In short, there are meaningful ways to compare them in terms of their skills that do not rely on the small sample sizes or the good or bad impressions that one play or two can make.
But the question is are you comparing the most meaningful skills. We can have Torii Hunter race Mike Cameron, but does that tell us which one has the best range? Does a foot race between Castro and Bartlett tell us which one will get to the most balls, which one will get the ball to first base fastest, which one will be in the correct position,which one gets the correct angle to the ball, which one will adjust the position of the second baseman for the batter?
Or for that matter, which of those skills are most important. One of the dangers of any evaluation is letting the ease of the ability to measure cloud the importance you attach to what you are measuring.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skepticim and sophistry
Six that I've seen. I might have mssed a few. But I probably missed some of Castro's as well because you can never tell on the radio, espcially since those guys loved Castro. But I personally saw seven misplays by Castro that I would have scored errors (should have plays), six of which resulted in earned runs for pitchers (six earned runs for Crain in particular). I have not seen one misplay by Bartlett that was not scored an error.
quickness and speed aren't the same. And range includes things like angle to the ball. In fact, I would add this as another of the factors that fans don't really understand.
OK, then I'm going to play the card that I'm no ordinary fan, as you imply of yourself by making the arrogant claim that you are the only one who perceives these things and neither fans' judgements nor statistics can convince you otherwise.
Castro took the worst routes on balls I've seen since Scott Lieus. He would run straight for second on a hard hit ball up the middle and be four steps shy. He hardly ever angled deep in the hole for balls because he knew he could never throw the guy out from the hole. And if the ball was hit right at him, he would go backwards first so that he could circle on it and get his momentum going towards first to get something on the throw. Often these throws would sail up the line and be scored infield hits. As for quickness, he lacked for that as much as speed. He does have quick reactions and quick hands, but not quick feet. And who's to judge positioning. The coaches tell the players where to play based on the book. Castro's nothing special there.
And most of his troubles related to his weak arm. Better to pretend to go after a ball and miss it than to get it and have the guy beat it out by three steps. Better to make the play look spectacular by taking a circular route on a ball than go stratight for it and send a rainbow over to first.
We do? Do they really throw at the same speed consistently? Do we also know who gets rid of the ball more quickly?
These things are measured by scouts, who share them with fans from time to time. But if you can't see the speed of a ball or measure how quickly a guy gets a ball to first, you probably wouldn't believe scouts either. And that's OK. You can go on believing that Castro is better and that is was a big mistake to trade him. For that matter, you can lump this trade in with the one that sent Matt Kinney and Javier Valentine to the Brewers for Matt Yeatman and Henry Bonilla. For, as you have said, more often than not, Ryan's trades have been futile anyway.
Believe what you want, but don't pretend that you have priveledged access to the truth, or that your eyes are better than most fans', or that your way of swizzling the stats is better than others. If you were as skeptical towards your own opinions as you are towards those of others, it would be a lot easier for us to take. But your skepticism becomes sophistry when you fail to apply the same questions to your own opinions.
In this case, you should be quite skeptical of a few percentage points of fielding percentage considering that just one week ago Bartlett had the edge but has committed two errors this past week. Does that make him worse? No. It just means that at this time slice and without any qualifications or margins for error in your measurements, Castro has the slight edge. But the sample is so small that slight changes make a difference. I've seen you use this very argument to support your own views. Yet you fail to use it yourself.
by cmathewson on Aug 30, 2006 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Experience
Not even on the radio?
I'm no ordinary fan
Obviously not.
He hardly ever angled deep in the hole for balls because he knew he could never throw the guy out from the hole.
And this is bad because ... it forced Torii Hunter to pick up the ball? Lets be clear, this may explain why Castro got more double plays and some people claim Bartlett catches the ball behind second base more often.
These things are measured by scouts, who share them with fans from time to time.
What you said above was "We all know he throws the ball 80 mph while Castro throws the ball 60 mph."
In this case, you should be quite skeptical of a few percentage points of fielding percentage considering that just one week ago Bartlett had the edge but has committed two errors this past week.
But I have expressed my scepticism of all fielding stats. As I recall, Castro committed several errors in a short period at the start of the season as well.
don't pretend that you have priveledged access to the truth, or that your eyes are better than most fans'
Actually, I make no special claims at all. I just question those that do and overestimate by a large margin their actual ability to evaluate players. I spend a lot more time trying to listen to people who see more games and have more experience than I do.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Snide comments aside
Well, as you rightly guessed, I followed his play and that of Barltett's closely in the first two plus months of the season. So I can say this with a lot of confidence.
Castro had a good couple of weeks to start the season. No errors. Hitting .350 or so. All the Castro backers were giving me a hard time. Then he fell off the table. In one stretch of games from the third week of April through the third week of May, he made 13 misplays, six of which were scored errors. He also hit .120 during that stretch. At the end of that stretch Terry Ryan went to Rochester to bring Bartlett up, but Bartlet failed to charge a ball or something and he left him down there for another three weeks. In those three weeks, Castro made one error and had two failed run-down plays. Plus he overthrew first on two double plays (not scored errors because you can't assume a DP). he also went to the wrong spot for a cut-off throw and let a couple of pop-ups drop for Texas leaguers (I didn't count thos in his total because the ball didn't glance off his glove, nor did he pull Morneau off the bag).
In short, he had two good weks to start the season and eight really bad weeks. As I've said, I think a lot of his problems defensively were because of a bad arm, which was made worse by playing every day. he's played better in Cincy when he's split time and rested his aging body between starts. This might be why he played well to start the season. he was well rested but soon wore down, especially with the bad wing.
by cmathewson on Aug 30, 2006 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Objectivity
Pardon my scepticism on the objectivity of your observations.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Subjectivity
To be more specific, the stats can tell us what's going on, but they say little about why. E.g., the stats can tell us that Joe Mauer is in the worst slump of his career, they just can't tell us why. You have to look at his approach at the plate: Is he cheating on the fastball? Is he guessing? Is he swinging at pitches he normally takes. is he taking pitches he normally swings at. Is he trying to pull everything? Etc. These observations are necessarily subjective. But they are just as necessary as the objective ones.
So excuse me for being skeptical about your objectivity. You can't help it. You're a baseball analyst.
As to your point on Bartlett versus Castro: It makes little sense to let your shortstop of the future rot in AAA while a washed up has been starts in the majors.
by cmathewson on Sep 1, 2006 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slupms
They can? I wonder how. Mauer has certainly had months worse than this August. And he has gone 1 for 16 over a period of four games before. So what makes this the "worst slump of his career"?
You're a baseball analyst.
If this is addressed to me, I'm not. I am merely a fan who follows the game and trys to understand it.
But I think it is important to distinguish between fans who can form and hold to opinions for their own sake, and people who evaluate players as a profession. They have their subjective judgements evaluated by others and their job depends on their judgements either matching their professional peers or being proved correct when they disagree.
It makes little sense to let your shortstop of the future rot in AAA while a washed up has been starts in the majors.
Actually, isn't it the purpose of the minor leagues to have your future players develop until they replace "washed up has beens"? And, far from being left to "rot in AAA", Bartlett clearly improved. He is not hitting over .340, something no one predicted for him.
by TT on Sep 1, 2006 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Respose
He has never gone 0-15, which he was prior to Johnny Damon dropping his single last night.
Actually, isn't it the purpose of the minor leagues to have your future players develop until they replace "washed up has beens"? And, far from being left to "rot in AAA", Bartlett clearly improved. He is not hitting over .340, something no one predicted for him.
I was merely pointing out that the reason I closely watched the Bartlett/Castro issue because this was my impression: The Twins were wasting a superior talent in the minors and losing games with the worst regular shortstop in baseball. Even if their play was comparable, it made little sense. Bartlett had nothing left to prove in AAA and Castro is a career utility player in part because he doesn't have the stamina to play everyday. In short, Castro has a limited future and Bartlett's future is bright. So the Twins should get Bartlett acclimated to the majors if they are the same, which they clearly are not.
Bartlett clearly improved. He is not hitting over .340, something no one predicted for him.
Post hoc ergo proctor hoc. The question is, would he have improved this much if he had been playing against major legue talent with major league coaches? There is no evidence to show that his time in AAA this year was not simply a waste. He was hitting .306 when he was recalled. He did not start playing this well until he was recalled and had the benefit of Joe Vavra and co. It took him a month to start hitting like he's hitting. So the evidence is quite the contrary.
As for anyone thinking he would hit .340, his AAA numbers in 2004 and 2005 suggested that he could hit like this in the majors. Outrageous as it might seem, I thought he was capable of playing like this if given the opportunity. I thought most of his rough edges were cleaned up last year, when he was sent down for two months and came back up to hit over .300 and play excellent defense before wearing down in September. I wrote all these things here and elsewhere.
There is no winning this argument beause you cannot prove a negative. But it is conventional wisdom in most organizations that players need to develop some at the major league level because the jump is so great from AAA to the big leagues. The Twins have been relatively conservative in this department since 1999, but no player is perfect before getting the call-up. Considering the dire need and the fact that Bartlett was already better than most young shortstops out there, it made little sense to send him down after spring training. And the Twins lost at least four games because of this descision. That could be very costly at the end of the season.
by cmathewson on Sep 2, 2006 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Statistical Point of Reference
by JS22 on Sep 2, 2006 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a formula
by cmathewson on Sep 2, 2006 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 30, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You may be right
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by FrozenTed9 on Aug 30, 2006 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As Further Evidence...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/3/31/141720/593
I see this as one of many examples of his willingness to drill you over every point of your agrument, but his unwillingness to own up to his own wrong analysis. He has no problem stating how stupid your ideas are without providing any real evidence, but he can't take the heat when we call him on his misinformed insights.
by MauerPower on Aug 30, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Intolerance
True enough. I defended both the decision to play Castro and to start Batista at third. What is amazing is that anyone would consider that outrageous and indefensible, since Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire made those same decisions.
What they seem to be evidence of is the intolerance of some fans of anyone contradicting their groups' commonly accepted wisdom.
I see this as one of many examples of his willingness to drill you over every point of your agrument
Guilty. I will drill bad arguments with good ones. Occasionally, I will probably drill good arguments with bad ones. But I won't attack the person who points it out.
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
My comment was unecessary, unrelated to baseball, and only served to perpetuate a needless argument. I apologize. I look forward to spirited debates with all of you in the future--that is why I come back to Twinkie Town again and again.
by MauerPower on Aug 30, 2006 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Problem
I agree, and I have a tendency to turn up the fire the hotter they get. I will try to turn it down instead when I see that happening.
I look forward to spirited debates with all of you in the future--that is why I come back to Twinkie Town again and again.
Great!
by TT on Aug 30, 2006 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batista
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 31, 2006 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Six Games
That is doubtful in the extreme.
by TT on Aug 31, 2006 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No he doesn't!
We all would like to think that Torii would have caught Buck's double had he been Torii, but it was pretty hard-hit and straight et al.
I applaud the work ethic of Garza and look forward to watching him more and more.
Anyone notice that Neshek was a little slower in his routine last night. Plus that double-steal! Whew!
by twintown on Aug 30, 2006 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hello,
by cortalekanak on Jan 14, 2007 6:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
in my opinion
by cortalekanak on Jan 16, 2007 4:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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