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Gammons: Miggy on the market

Peter Gammons is reporting on ESPN.com that Miguel Cabrera is being shopped by the Marlins.  For those teams looking for a good offensive third baseman, he's what Jack Black would accurately describe as "A cream dream."

I don't know if it's even within the realm of possibility, but here are some of the positives associated with the Twins considering going after Cabrera:

1.) Cabrera has two years before he's free-agency eligible, making the Twins instant contenders next year and the year following.

2.) He instantly replaces (and upgrades) Hunter's power at a primary power position and ends the "who's on third" debate.

3.) The Marlins are shopping him because expenses are tight with their new stadium looming, and are looking for prototypical Marlins acquistions:  Young Talent, which the twins have in spades.

4.) The Venezuelan-born Cabrera would hopefully give Johan Santana incentive to stay around.

5.) Equating Cabrera's salary against Hunter's, Cabrera saves the Twins 4-5 Million per year for those two years, loosening up some room to acquire a decent center fielder.  Mike Cameron made 7 million last year, and chances are he'll go cheaper now.

Some things that might be a deterrent for a small-market team going after a guy like Miggy:

1.) His salary jumped past the "serf" status for the first time this past year, where he made 7.4 million.  This wouldn't be unprecedented for the Twins to take on a contract of that size, and it certainly beats what Hunter is asking for.  Besides, getting a bona fide superstar for that kind of money is akin to a bargain for almost any team.

2.) For a team proclaiming to take great pride in their defense, Cabrera has some folks in Miami worried about his weight and agility playing third.  Granted he's no Tony Batista at the hot corner, but his conditioning has been cause for concern.

3.) We'd have to give up some good young pitching.  I hate speculating on names, but chances are to acquire a talent like Cabrera, it would be steep.

Gammons does a interesting study comparing Cabrera's career stats against A-Rod, obviously the pinnacle of offensive third basemen, and it's astounding how Cabrera is showing some of that same promise at only 24 years old.  

I don't know if acquiring Cabrera is feasible for the twins to consider, but he's one of the best available at a position we need.  Aside from the players we'd have to give up for him, it would be akin to signing a better-hitting Torii Hunter to a two-year, 16 million dollar deal.  Plus, I'd just plain love to see the guy hit in our town.  Like Jack Black says, a cream dream.

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Stop dreaming
I'm hearing that the Yankees will probably give the Marlins the best package for him, including the likes of Phillip Hughes.  I doubt it happens.

by TheMattWilke on Nov 1, 2007 12:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yankees
I'm hearing that the Yankees will probably give the Marlins the best package for him, including the likes of Phillip Hughes.  I doubt it happens.

I don't think it'll happen.  The Yankees looks to have recently gotten out of the habit of selling the farm for trade acquisitions.  Besides, with the payroll they can support, they'd rather preserve their young pitching seeing how antique the rotation is and then just sign the rest.

by steve johnson on Nov 2, 2007 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not so far fetched
Consider this scenario:

The Twins send the Yankees Johan Santana and Joe Nathan.

The Yankees send the Marlins Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard, Joba Chamberlain, and Jose Tabata.

The Yankees send the Twins Melky Cabrera (who's expendable after the Yankees sign Torii Hunter).

The Marlins send the Twins Miguel Cabrera.

This would be the Twins line-up:

Bartlett (SS)
Melky (CF)
Mauer (C)
Miggy (3B)
Morneau (1B)
Cuddyer (RF)
Kubel (LF)
Tony Clark (FA DH)
Casilla (2B)

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 1, 2007 2:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's highway robbery for the Marlins
Miguel Cabrera is a poor defensive third baseman, and probably should switch positions.  He's good, but Hughes/Clippard/Chamberlain is practically half a rotation, and lots of folks are rather high on Jose Tabata.  If the Marlins can get that much for Cabrera, I would be extremely impressed.

I wouldn't be terribly impressed with a Cabrera/Cabrera return on Santana/Nathan, either.

by ubelmann on Nov 1, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking that
As soon as I wrote it. Perhaps send Chamberlain, Melky and Miggy to the Twins and Hughes, Clippard and Tabata to the Marlins.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 1, 2007 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Melky is garbage...
He is a 4th OF to me.  Heck, I'd almost rather just have Tyner.  He's not that far off offensively to me.  The longer the Yanks have an infatuation with Melky the happier I'll be.

Also, I agree that's not nearly enough for Johan and Nathan, and I LOVE Miggy.

Really, I don't think it makes any sense to package Santana and Nathan together.  If we decide to deal BOTH (highly unlikely IMO) then we can get more for them in separate packages if you ask me.

by djskilbr on Nov 2, 2007 5:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That makes sense
I don't see why you'd put your two biggest bargaining chips together.  Plus, if you're looking to get Miggy, the Marlins aren't looking for superstars, so to use either of them for that trade would have to be through a different team.

The Cabrera possibility seems intriguing to me because it might be possible to get him AND keep Santana/Nathan.  

by Neil on Nov 2, 2007 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Melky vs. Tyner
Career  OBP      SLG     OPS    AGE

Melky: .340     .388     .728     23
Tyner: .314     .324     .637     30

Melky's a fantastic defender and he's 23 years old.

He starts for the Yankees.

He might even be good enough to play for the Twins.

by by jiminy on Nov 2, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's not...
Again, Melky is a 4th OF.  My Tyner comment was a bit of hyperbole, but Melky is just not good.  He's pretty solid defensively but he cannot hit.

And nothing in his track record suggests that he'll ever be able to, really.  He had a good 30 game stretch in the minors and that's it.  

Thanks, but no thanks to Melky as far as I'm concerned.

by djskilbr on Nov 2, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

PECOTA...
...before the season projected Cabrera to hit .277/.342/.408 and he actually hit .273/.327/.391.  Slightly on the disappointing side, but right in line with expectations.  PECOTA also had Cabrera as hitting basically .290/.360/.450 from 2009-2011.

If you take a look at a guy like, say, Tony Gwynn, he didn't hit for much power until he was 26.  Adrian Beltre's another guy who had some low power seasons when he was really young for a major leaguer, but the power came eventually.  Cabrera's not necessarily my idea of a perfect acquisition, but there's clearly something in his record that indicates potential.

by ubelmann on Nov 2, 2007 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess...
I just don't trust PECOTA as a true guide.  

I simply don't think he's very good at all.  And there's really nothing in his numbers that indicate he is either.  In either the minors or majors.

by djskilbr on Nov 3, 2007 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it
He's a switch hitter in his low 20s who's put up above league average numbers for his position every year. Throw in his defense and I struggle to understand why you think he's garbage.

Granted, he's had a good supporting cast around him. But a team that has above league average production and good defense at every position figures to win with good pitching.

He's no Torii Hunter, but when people are suggesting Coco Crisp, Jeff Davanon, and (my choice) Willy Tavares, I don't understand why Melky is out of the question as an option.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 3, 2007 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, that's why I guess CMath...
I don't like ANY of those options.

I'd much rather have a Cameron or Rowand, or a prospect CF with a chance to really do something.

I think Melky's absolute CEILING is an average CF.  To me he's more likely to end up well below that.  Just my personal thought.  

I guess we'll see what the future brings.

by djskilbr on Nov 3, 2007 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those
Those PETCOA numbers for 09 through '11 would be a well above average center fielder.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 4, 2007 11:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well we probably can't afford better
The way I see it, Melky is better than Coco at the plate, and he's much younger and cheaper. Coco is better than Melky in the field. Coco's contract will cost more. Melky will cost more in terms of prospects. But, all things considered, I'd prefer Melky. And as my subject line suggests, I doubt we can afford much better if we want to plug holes elsewhere.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 6, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well...
I'm going to disagree with you on the CEILING comment, considering that as a 21-year-old in his first full season (2006), he was, offensively, pretty much an average centerfielder...

Cabrera: .280/.360/.391
AL CFs: .275/.334/.437

Obviously, he didn't match up quite as well this year (although the league average was worse, particularly in SLG), but while you don't see anything that makes you think he's good, I don't see anything that suggests he isn't, either.  And he's only 23.

by BeefMaster on Nov 7, 2007 11:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
How many highly touted prospects fail when they get to the majors? Think Andy Marte. For this reason, people are right to place major league success well ahead of minor league success when evaluating players.

Melky has been successful from the day he put on pinstripes, at a young age. At a certain point, you throw the minor league stuff out the window. I know I have. If that's what's holding you up, Dustin, I suggest you do the same. It can't be about his major league numbers.

I can see being cautious about his upside, but even at his current rate, he's far better than "garbage" and he's way better than Tyner ever was.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 7, 2007 11:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure...
that's fair cmath.  "Garbage" is probably a bit rough.  

My overall point is just that I think his "value" is a lot more than it should be.  It would take more to get him than I'd want to give up, in other words.

by djskilbr on Nov 7, 2007 3:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I get your point...
...that all other things being equal, major league success is preferable to minor league success, but I think Marte is a bad example.  From 2005 to 2006, his AAA OPS dropped by 100 points, and stayed there in 2007.

I don't know why Marte took such a pronounced step backwards (I think an injury might have had something to do with it), but there was clearly more going on there than just an issue with the minor-major league transition.

There's also no real reason to throw Melky's minor league numbers out the window.  A .294/.344/.422 line for a CF who has been pushed aggressively through the minors is not bad, and in fact is pretty good.  His SO/BB ratio of around 2 also suggests that he could project for more power than what he hit in the minors.

by ubelmann on Nov 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't say...
...that there's nothing in the numbers that indicate he would be very good when PECOTA looks at nothing but the numbers and thinks he'll be quite good.  There's clearly something there, whether you want to believe it or not.

by ubelmann on Nov 6, 2007 5:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, what is it though?....
it's certainly not apparent.  

Again, I generally don't trust PECOTA.  They're right on some things, but they're awfully wrong on some too.

Like I said, just my personal opinion that Melky never really amounts to anything.

by djskilbr on Nov 6, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't
I don't get it.  Tyner has never in his entire career put forth a SLG line anywhere NEAR the one Cabrera has put up the last two years running as a 22 and 23 year old.  Melky's career .340 OBP has been topped by Tyner in only on eyear when he had more than 100 AB's in his entire career, and he was in his prime then at 29!  Melky and Tyner has the same career BA, Melky putting up the .275 line before he turned 24 and Tyner getting there with his peak numbers.  Melky is a stronger defender, especially with his arm.

I just don't get the comparison.  Melky's career OPS ALREADY beat's Tyners by 91 points.  THat's as a 22 abd 23 year old!

Even IF Cabrera defied logic and got no better as he aged into his prime, his solid defense and hold-my-own bat (a .720 to .750 OPS annually) is a solid starting center fielder.  Even a modest improvement up to an .800 OPS by the time he is 27 makes him one of the top bunch in the league!

Cabrera looks like a pretty bad hitter compared to the other guys on his team, but compared to other CF around the league, he already has a respectable bat with a good glove, and he's still very young!

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 7, 2007 10:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To get to and .800 OPS
that's not "modest" improvement.  That's a 100 point jump, Adam.  

That's not all that easy when you don't have any injuries to blame.  

It's possible, but I really don't see it as likely in his case.

by djskilbr on Nov 7, 2007 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's
It wouldn't be THAT much of a jump.  .50 OPS from two years ago and .80 from last year.  That's not that dramatic at all from age 23 to age 27.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 7, 2007 7:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, 80
That's still significant.

I discount his 2006 personally because last year he had many more AB's (practically full-time duty).

by djskilbr on Nov 7, 2007 11:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not so fast...
  1. 524 plate appearances
  2. 612 plate appearances
80 points of OPS is still significant, as you said, but it's not unheard-of - Cuddyer and Kubel have both had single-season jumps of over 100 in their careers, although Cuddyer regressed almost 80 of that the following year.

If you don't see Cabrera making that leap, though, that opinion is perfectly reasonable; I'm just trying to make sure it's fact-based.

by BeefMaster on Nov 7, 2007 11:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And
And I'm not even talking about a one-year leap.  I'm talking about a slow growth as he matures from a young 23 year old, to a 27 year old in his prime.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 8, 2007 12:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And Adam...
that's fine.  And that is reasonable.  But I don't want to wait around 4 more years to have a CF that has an .800 OPS.  By then, I fully expect one of Benson or Revere to be much better than Melky.

I just think there are better options and Melky is overrated/overvalued trade-wise because he's in NY.  That's really my whole point.

by djskilbr on Nov 8, 2007 4:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I looked at AB's...
His AB's were:
  1. 460
  2. 545
And he appeared in only 130 games in 2006.  150 in 2007.

Again, maybe I'm wrong here, but I just don't see it in the kid.  And yes, that is partially based on his minor league numbers.  We will see.

by djskilbr on Nov 8, 2007 4:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And, another cream dream
The Tigers need a closer now that Zumaya's been hurt.  Let's do Nathan for Granderson!

You may begin the choruses of boisterous laughter and "yeah, right" at your leisure.

by Neil on Nov 2, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd do.
Nathan for Maybin.

hehe

by djskilbr on Nov 2, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd do.....
Nathan for Sheffield and Inge.
check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Nov 2, 2007 4:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Feliz
I would rather not trade for now and go after Pedro Feliz to play third.  Not resigning Silva at what he is probably going to get in the open market would pay for Feliz.  It would add some pop to the right side of the plate.  Feliz has had some fielding problems in the past but looks like he has finally settled in at third and had a very good year...got the best ranking in the National League from the Fielding Bible.
richman

by anderson800 on Nov 5, 2007 11:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't Feliz...
it'd be like Frenchy Volume II on this ballclub.

There are better options.

by djskilbr on Nov 5, 2007 5:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

huh?
other than it being a funny comment how could you possible compare Feliz with Jeff Reboulet?  His career average fielding percentage is probably somewhere close to the same, but Reboulet averaged about 2 HRs and 20 rbi per year.  Feliz is a far superior run producer hands down.
richman

by anderson800 on Nov 6, 2007 8:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't comparing him to Reboulet...
I was comparing him to Jacque.  

Basically because their comparable complete lack of recognition of the strike zone.

by djskilbr on Nov 6, 2007 10:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

k
that makes more sense, but they are pretty different players also.  I was really surprised to see how well Jones did in the clutch last year. His overall numbers were way down but he batted .358 with risp and .424 with two outs with risp.  So apparently he can find the strike zone when someone is on base.  I really wouldn't mind seeing him come back if we felt a one-year stop gap would do.  I think the Chicago fans have been pretty hard on him and coming back to Minnesota could be good for him.
richman

by anderson800 on Nov 7, 2007 7:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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