Offensive Team Leaders, 2007

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2007 12:59 AM EDT in News Comment 13 comments

Friday morning food for thought. That is, if you're cool browsing lists of numbers on a Friday morning. I used an arbitrary minimum of 130 plate appearances as a requirement.
Runs Created Pitches Per Plate Appearance Name RC Name P/PA T. Hunter 102 L. Ford 4.2 J. Morneau 97 L. Castillo 4.0 M. Cuddyer 84 J. Mauer 4.0 J. Mauer 71 N. Punto 4.0 J. Bartlett 67 M. Cuddyer 3.9

Line Drive Percentage Clutch Name LD% Name Clutch J. Kubel 22.1 T. Hunter 9.5 M. Redmond 20.6 J. Cirillo 4.8 J. Bartlett 20.1 M. Redmond 4.8 J. Cirillo 19.0 J. Kubel 3.8 M. Cuddyer 18.7 J. Mauer 3.2

Batting Avg/Balls In Play Isolated Power Name BABIP Name ISO L. Castillo .329 J. Morneau .221 J. Mauer .319 T. Hunter .218 M. Redmond .315 J. Kubel .177 M. Cuddyer .315 M. Cuddyer .157 J. Tyner .309 J. Mauer .133

Walk Rate Strikeout Rate Name BB% Name K% J. Mauer 13.9 L. Ford 18.5 J. Morneau 10.9 M. Cuddyer 17.1 N. Punto 10.5 J. Kubel 16.9 M. Cuddyer 10.4 N. Punto 16.8 J. Bartlett 9.2 T. Hunter 15.3 J. Kubel 9.2

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P/PA and random thoughts on Lew Ford

I like this stat; reading your recent post about Hunter was the first time I'd really thought about it.

Noticing that Ford led the team with P/PA, I got a little sad that we'd let him go but then moving down the list and seeing that he also has the highest team strikeout percentage my pro-Ford sentiment evaporated. Takes tons of pitches then strikes out. Sounds like my little league career.

Remember when he was leading the league in Batting Average for like half the season in 03 or 04? Man, that was awesome. Have fun with your fundamentalist Christian wife in Texas, dude.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Nov 2, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't mind

a guy striking out. If you take a lot of pitches you'll end up in a lot of 2-strike counts, and usually that means more strike outs. Three of the top five guys in P/PA are in the top five for strikeout rate...the other two, Mauer and Castillo, have superior control of the strike zone.

What I do have a problem with is a guy striking out because he doesn't know how to identify pitch or location. This is a completely subjective analysis, but I think Ford took a lot of pitches not because he was waiting for his pitch or was looking to wear the hurler down, but because he wasn't comfortable at the plate. He was fooled a lot and had big holes in his swing. I don't have a problem with strikeouts, but if you're as futile offensively as Lew was, the strikeouts are just a symptom of a much larger issue.

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like your analysis of Lew

But the other two players in both top 5's are Mauer and Punto. Ford, Punto and Mauer are quite a different trio than Ford, Castillo and Mauer. In fact, isn't Castillo known for not striking out?

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Nov 3, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I was saying

When I mentioned "the other two" in the top 5, I was referencing the P/PA list. Those two are Mauer and Castillo, and as I said they have excellent control of the strike zone...which is why they don't strike out much. Because you're absolutely right, Castillo is known for not striking out; he was one of the Twins with the lowest strikeout rate.

by Jesse on Nov 3, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK yeah

I reread what you said and it makes sense now. I was just confused. Where did you find P/PA stats by the way?

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Nov 4, 2007 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I found mine

in ESPN's extended offensive statistics, on the Twins home page.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?sortField=pitchesPerPlateAppearance&te am=min&seasonYear=2007&seasonType=2&type=exp&pagetype=batting&stub=/mlb/Statisti cs/HTML/Table

by Jesse on Nov 4, 2007 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Santana rules

Just 7 ABs but yet another team-leading category for Koufax II!

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Nov 5, 2007 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

P/PA

To be honest, I don't really consider P/PA a very useful stat. I don't know that it tells me much, and the difference between the top and bottom of the list is pretty small. For example, of the Twins regulars, 4.0 led the team. I didn't check everybody, but noted hacker Torii had 3.6 P/PA for the season. Assuming 650 PA, that means that he looked at about 260 pitches less than the leader, or about 1.5 per game, which really isn't all that much between the high and the low ends of the range.

by Diggity Dino on Nov 2, 2007 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Torii

averaged 3.37 P/PA this season. I'm not sure how much of a difference this makes, and as I've had a few drinks and am about to head out to a birthday party I won't take the time to do the math, but I will say that I think how many pitches per plate appearance is a stat that does matter. Especially for a team that needs runners on base, because it has no/very little power, it's essential that patience (and strikezone control) is a quality the Twins look for in their everyday players.

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2007 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

line drives

Seems like I read in multiple places all year long that Kubel and Bartlett had high LD rates, with writers predicting that each of those guys could expect their BA to go up as their luck evens out (i.e., more LDs end up as hits). Both did get better, a little, in the BA department as the year went on, but not so much as I was led to hope for based on what I was reading about LD rates. Does this mean both guys are due for breakouts in 2008? I hope so. Or maybe it means the small correction is about what I should expect from that particular statistic.

By the same token, it's interesting to see Cuddyer in the top five on that LD% list. He's also fourth on the team in BA/balls in play, which is considered basically a measure of luck, right? So he was getting unlucky by not reaping the benefits of his LDs but at the same time he was getting lucky by having a high BA/balls in play. What should we make of that?

Kubel and Bartlett also show up in the top five in walk rate, so maybe that's another clue they may have better years next year.

What's the "clutch" stat?

by cooldude on Nov 3, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LD%

I think high line drive percentages for both of these guys helped boost averages quite a bit. Bartlett was hitting as low as .229 on June 9, and ended up with a .265 average--he has gotten as high as .281 before a cold September. Kubel was hitting as low as .235 on June 18 before finishing with a .273 average, which was a season high thanks to two blistering months. You're right--more line drives generally means more hits and harder hit balls, but I do think their averages improved dramatically.

As for Cuddyer, I think you could argue that his higher BABIP was a result of having a higher LD%. But that's just a guess.

With Barteltt and Kubel showing up in the walk rate leader board and the LD% leader board, I'm hoping that helps propel them to good offensive seasons in '08. Some power from Kubel would be nice, and if Bartlett can continue to do what he's done the last couple of years he could be a very solid bat at the bottom of the order.

Clutch, as defined by THT: "Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it.

by Jesse on Nov 3, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I guess you're right. I was looking at those final BAs and compared to what I'd hoped for from those two was disppointed. But as you said, they had pretty big holes to dig out of. I'm excited to see those guys have strong years next year--Kubel especially, who may be ready to break out.

by cooldude on Nov 6, 2007 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

All of Cuddyer/Bartlett/Kubel (and Mauer) should improve dramatically this year and be much more like their 2006 versions (except Kubel of course, who should be just "good" on his own).

That will go a long way towards helping this offense, though it still needs some help of course.

by djskilbr on Nov 3, 2007 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs