Joe Torre & the Strikeout Kid
Neither the Yankees or the Mets seem to be good trading partners, should the Johan sweepstakes open up. The Los Angeles Dodgers have also been hot on the rumor circuit, and it's not hard to imagine Santana mowing through National League hitters.
I've always had a lot of respect for Joe Torre. In some situations it's difficult to know what you like or don't like about a manager, but with Torre it's different. He managed a winning team, as much as you could manage the New York Yankees. Talented veterans filled the roster and knew what they had to do; if you didn't know your job you didn't stay in Pinstripes very long. But more than anything, I saw character in Joe Torre. The grace with which he dealt with not only the savage New York media, but also a brash and sometimes childish George Steinbrenner, speaks volumes. He was patient and professional, and even though he always bought the company line there was never any doubt that he had control of the clubhouse. Joe Torre was always the manager of the New York Yankees. He didn't pretend to be anything more, and he was confident enough to know he was nothing less. He was able to define his role not only through what he did, but what he chose not to do in a sporting world of growing savagery and defensive self-promotion. I believe the Los Angeles Dodgers hired one of the best managers in baseball.
On the opposite side of defensive self-promotion is the public relations coup that Torii Hunter is layering over baseball. He knows what he's doing, and it's a clinic in how to sell yourself. Hunter recently mentioned Los Angeles as one of his top prospectives (duh), and it's hard to blame him. The Dodgers are always major players in the off-season, and this year is no exception. Big names such as Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez and Johan Santana have all been bantered about by the rumor mongrels. LA will be movers and shakers this off-season, and with Torre already in tow they'll be making aggressive plays to land talent and win now. You know that will appeal to Torii.
And...did I just mention Johan Santana?
The Los Angeles Dodgers
OF Delwyn Young (S/R), Born 06/30/1982
Splits AB H 2B HR BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Minors 2706 819 225 102 235 611 .303 .362 .512
Majors 39 13 1 2 2 6 .333 .357 .564
Young was drafted three times ('00 - '02). The first two times he declined the up-front cash temptation to remain in school (sorry, Atlanta). At every level in the minor leagues he's succeeded offensively, almost wildly. Only in his first full season at AAA, after switching from second base to outfield, did he post an OPS below .836. Young is an MLB-ready hitter.
OF Matt Kemp (R/R), Born 09/23/1984
Splits AB H 2B HR SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Minors 1579 490 98 60 69 107 319 .310 .358 .518
Majors 446 139 19 17 16 25 119 .312 .344 .496
Kemp is an athletic outfielder, who could probably step in and start in center field for the Twins from Day 1. His control of the strike zone has gotten much better in recent years, reducing is BB:K ratio from nearly 4:1 at ages 19 and 20 to better than 2:1 at ages 21 to 23 (minor leagues). He doesn't have the power potential of Young, but he might be the better hitter. He's also two years younger. SBNation's sabermetrics website, Beyond the Box Score, gives some insights to Kemp's possible future here.
LHP Clayton Kershaw, Born 03/19/1988
Year IP ERA WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
'06-Rk 37.0 1.95 0.89 0.00 1.22 13.14
'07-A 97.1 2.77 1.25 0.46 4.62 12.39
'07-AA 24.2 3.65 1.38 1.46 6.20 10.58
Kershaw possesses a fastaball, curve and change. His curve is getting better (has been classified as a "big" curve) but his focus was on the changeup in 2007, realizing that it's development would make his mid-90's fastball that much more effective. Always the strikeout pitcher, his control faultered this past season; rough when Baseball America rates him as the Dodger prospect with the best pitch control. I like Kershaw's potential, but as high as that potential is he's not one of my primary targets.
3B Andy LaRoche (R/R), Born 09/13/1983
Split AB H 2B HR BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Minors 1655 488 105 90 203 274 .295 .376 .525
Majors 93 21 5 1 20 24 .226 .365 .312
LaRoche has been mentioned around TwinkieTown a number of times over the last year. In fact, he gets Christmas cards from Cmathewson. Last February, Baseball America rated Andy as the best prospect in the Dodger system, including accolades for best hitter for power and best infield arm. Currently, LaRoche is battling with Team USA in the 2007 IBAF World Cup. TrueBlueLA, SBNation's site for the Dodgers, recently held a poll that sited LaRoche as the most likely prospect to be traded this off-season. Hearsay? Yes. Interesting to note when you assume fans of TrueBlueLA are as savvy and up on their team as the fans of TwinkieTown? Also yes.
Dodger Wrap: There are a number of other players who spark my interest (Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Xavier Paul, Ivan DeJesus, and even Scott Elbert, who had arthroscopic surgery on his labrum to remove scar tissue last June), but these are the main four guys I'd be building by starting offer around. All four have good ceilings, are young and will remain affordable for Minnesota in the near future. More importantly, the position players are offensive performers at positions of need for the Twins.
My package offerings are a bit looser this time, mostly because there are so many players I like. Package One: Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw. OR...
Pick Two AND Pick One -OR- Pick Two
Young Ethier Paul
Kemp Billingsley DeJesus
Kershaw Loney Elbert
LaRoche
From the buffet line I'll have Young, LaRoche and Ethier, please...
Of the three teams I've scourged so far, the Dodgers are by far the best fit. Not only are they a financial heavyweight who can absorb Santana with a smile, they also have young but MLB-ready position player talent. For a team ruled by the dollar, the Twins should be taking a long hard look to Los Angeles if they decide trading Johan is the best way to go.
We might know what way that is by the time the Winter Meetings begin on December 3rd. Stay tuned.
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25 comments
Comments
Excellent post...
Everyone is talking about Kershaw and never having seen him pitch, it is always hard to have a great feel for a kid. Obviously, teams have access to scouting reports that tell them a lot more than we will ever know.
But, the Twins may already have him in their organization...oh, he is using a different name (Tyler Robertson). Yes, Tyler isn't as tall but also is a 19 year old lefty. And Tyler graded out higher this year, 115.120 versus Kershaw at 98.598 using my formula to evaluate players.
Both pitched the entire year in the MidWest League. Robertson's line was 102.1ip, 2.29ERA, 123K/33BB with 3 home runs. Kershaw's line was 97.1ip, 2.77ERA, 134K/50BB with 5 home runs. Actually, the two were very similar with Robertson having slightly better numbers across the line except for strikeouts where both were excellent, Kershaw had 1.377/inning while Robertson had 1.202. Robertson had much better control however, with Kershaw having 4.623 walks per 9 innings while Robertson had only 2.902 walks per inning.
by roger on Nov 20, 2007 8:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Happy Thanksgiving, Roger
by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is...
by roger on Nov 20, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers are the best fit
I would say in addition to two position player prospects, the Dodgers should give up one young major league pitcher to make it worth the Twins while. Here are the three guys I would ask for:
*Andy LaRoche (he gets the card with the Nativity scene this year)
*Delwyn Young (according to Joe C., the Twins are less high on Kemp than the Dodgers)
*Jonathan Broxton (could start or relieve--possible closer candidate a la Joe Nathan circa 2004)
I agree with Roger. Kershaw is overhyped compared to our own prospect at the same level. The only thing is, Robertson is two inches taller than Kershaw, but Kershaw throws harder. Anyway, I don't think you go after that level of prospect considering the depth of the system at the lower levels. Not only did the Twins have two top-20 pitching prospects at Beloit, but two at E-Town (using Sickel's list).
by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2007 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry bout that CMath,
But I don't feel that we should be taking as a major part of the trade a kid from single A ball. Alot can happen on the way to the dance. Give us two about ready top notch position players and as a throw in, then maybe Kershaw is ok. But not as a major part of the puzzle.
Happy Thanksgiving CMath!
by roger on Nov 20, 2007 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did I write that?
As opposed to a meataball, which gets slugged outta da park.
by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers have itchy trigger finger...
If and/or when we decide to trade Santana, the Dodgers may have already dealt the prospects we would want.
by eahnpurato on Nov 20, 2007 12:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fair point
by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
If we think we can win this year, you go for Billingsley, who is also very good. If you're more chalking this up as a "growing" year, then you go with Kershaw, who should be up later this year.
Either way, this would be an excellent package.
I don't want to deal Johan, but if we have to, it better be to LA for something like this.
by djskilbr on Nov 20, 2007 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
One point
As Roger has shown, Kershaw is a 19-year old Tyler Robertson clone. At best, he would dominate the FSL and make the jump to AA in 2008. Like Robertson, he will likely stay in Fort Myers all year. I'd be shocked to see Kershaw pitch from a big league mound before 2010.
by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We all remember...
But hey, maybe we can hype Robertson as another Kershaw and trade him even up for Cabrera? Any takers?
by roger on Nov 20, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If
As for Kershaw, I'd be willing to take Broxton instead. The thing with getting Broxton is we could then turn around and trade Nathan for a better starting prospect AND a decent DH option, maybe even young, effectively turning Santana and Nathan into Gret young options at 3rd and CF, a starting pitching prospect or two, and a good DH, AND a great closer in Broxton. Quite a little haul.
This is the first write up I've seen that actually makes me willing to pull the trigger, as if it were my trigger to pull.
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 20, 2007 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think you guys are severely...
Some of the BA guys even think he'll be up and starting MIDSEASON. Yes, he's young, but he's a true phenom. And CMath, he ended last season at AA. I'd actually be SHOCKED if he's not up by the beginning of 2009. He's that good.
No way in heck would I take Broxton over him in a package. Kershaw is rated as the #1 minor league pitching prospect in the game right now by many. Broxton is a reliever, a damn good one, but a reliever just the same.
We can trade Nathan anyway since we already have a great reliever in Neshek.
Just my two cents.
by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 4:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
See I think
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's where we disagree though...
Whatever you get for Nathan + Kershaw + Neshek closing
=
Much better than whatever you get for Nathan + Broxton + Neshek
at least to me.
by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Broxton > Neshek
I think he'll come back strong in 2008, but I wouldn't count on him being the closer. Broxton has closer written all over him.
Internally, I'd put Crain ahead of Neshek as a future closer. But no one knows how well or how soon he will come back from shoulder surgery. I suppose Morlan tops them all, but he's still a coupe of years away.
by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2007 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Neshek fell apart...
Maybe it's just a crazy coincidence, but to me the evidence points pretty clearly to overuse being the cause of the problem. I'd much rather see Neshek pitching multiple innings in fewer appearances than pitching in six games over seven days in a match-up role.
I'm not optimistic about Crain or Rincon being better than league average relief pitchers going forward, and in general don't feel that confident in the Twins' bullpen situation for next year if Nathan is traded.
by ubelmann on Nov 21, 2007 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on Neshek...
I have to disagree on the state of the bullpen though. While I'm not confident in Crain or Rincon (I think Crain will return well but probably not until later in the year) I am extremely confident in the potential of Boof and Perkins in a bullpen role, as I expect for both of them. I think those 2 with Neshek could be a great crew, with a better Guerrier in the mix too.
And even Reyes, his problem seemed to be health last year more than anything. If he's healthy this year, I could easily see him returning to 2006 form (well, okay, not THAT good) again.
I LOVE Nathan; he's the best in the game to me factoring in durability, etc. (ie that puts him above Pap to me, barely), but I would have no problem trading both he and Rincon--good riddance to Juan--and rolling with a pen of:
Neshek
Boof
Perkins
Guerrier
Reyes
Blackburn
with Crain working his way into the mix
And let's not forget, Mijares and Morlan could both contribute significantly by the end of this season.
To tack onto Rincon, I still think a deal of Rincon for Luke Scott just makes too much sense not for Bill Smith to do something like that. That would be ideal IMO.
by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
I really don't. Kershaw can be the centerpiece of a deal for just about anyone. I don't think Broxton, as a closer, has that same value personally.
That's my only real point.
by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fine
My point is that between:
Neshek closing, Broxton setting up, Kemp and LaRoche starting, a top young pitching prospect in the minors, a young DH hitter, and an extra prospect
vs
Nathan closing, Neshek setting up, Kemp and LaRoche starting, and Kershaw.
The first package is far better, yielding additional prospects, lowering payroll, AND filling all our slots. All while making the team younger.
Heck, why don't we just send them Santana and nathan for Kemp, LaRoche, Kershaw, Broxton, and either Young or Eitheir? Something like that...
I think the Dodgers really are a great fit for this, largely because of Kemp and Laroche.
Honestly, if we did all this, I'd have no idea how to spend all the money we'd be saving. The most expensive DH we can get i guess, then extensions for people...
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2007 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Value
I guess if the Twins were in full-blown rebuilding mode, I'd take Kershaw. But I think the Twins have a chance to be good in 2008 and beyond if they play their cards right. And I like the option of trading both Santana and Nathan to do that. But I don't think the bullpen is nearly good enough or deep enough to succeed without someone like Nathan back there. So Broxton makes more sense to me for this club.
by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2007 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 23, 2007 2:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't trade Kershaw...
Nathan is the best, but closers are still overrated.
I look at it like this I guess, Adam:
I think you can get a BETTER prospect for Nathan than Broxton.
But I think Kershaw IS better than Nathan value-wise.
Just my personal take. That's where we disagree it seems.
I'm totally with you though; the Dodgers are CLEARLY the best fit.
I think it's starting to turn that way at this point. I really see every indication the Angels are loading up to get Miggy. They can easily do it now with an Adenhart/Wood (who's overrated)/Willits/Mathis or Kendrick package and be just fine.
And if the Angels get Miggy, all hell will break loose in DodgerVille out here wanting to match them marketing-wise.
This could be a dream scenario for us in the end.
by djskilbr on Nov 22, 2007 3:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Simpler
by AdamOnFirst on Nov 23, 2007 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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