Good luck in Seattle, Senor Jackal

by ravenfly on Dec 18, 2007 5:32 PM EST Comment 31 comments

Silva's apparently about to sign with the Mariners for $44MM/4yrs per Ken Rosenthal, and boy oh boy are the M's fans unhappy with it.

Good analysis and discussion by Dave at USS Mariner (a site that you should probably be reading anyway; I certainly enjoy it even though I don't feel very strongly one way or the other about the M's). Weirdly enough, seems that the posters over yonder aren't too keen on the idea of committing $11MM per annum to Senor Silva...can't imagine why. Though to be fair, I don't know what the M's fans were expecting their front office to do with that money anyway.

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I wonder if...

...this is Seattle's attempt to make a play for Santana in the hopes he'll join his buddy in Seattle.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 18, 2007 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

haha...

could be.

they are still a starter short, unless they have that much faith in morrow.

and if that's the case, then they're still 3 "good" starters short, at least.

by djskilbr on Dec 18, 2007 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rosenthal said...

...they will go after "a prominent left hander." But he said it was Bedard. Hopefully the Mets get Bedard and Seattle throws Morrow and Jones at the Twins.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 18, 2007 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not bad...

I like Jones best of any CF not named Kemp.

But I have always been leery of Seattle pitchers. I think it must be their development program because they're guys get injured like no other organization I can think of, or so it seems.

For a FA CF acquisition (if we can somehow bring Johan back to the fold) I've been thinking more and more of Alexei Ramirez. I really think he would be my top option in CF at this point, assuming the cost isn't prohibitive.

He's got pop AND could hit leadoff; something that Lofton/Cameron can't claim.

by djskilbr on Dec 18, 2007 8:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think

I think the abject horror I'm reading through over at the USS Mariner is excessive. I'd expect Silva to put up about exactly what he does most years: an ERA around 4.50 with about 200 IP. That's about an average ERA in the AL. So he's a solidly average starter who is typically able to trot out there his 30 to 34 times a year and deliver you 100 good innings as a solid #3 or great #4 starter. I think SIlva improves most pitching rotations, certainly through depth.

Seattle's apparent lack of defensive prowess that the fans are worried about will be a problem with Silva however.

I guess it just depends if you think that 190 IP from an average starter is worth the 11 mil. I think it is if you are a team with decent sized coffers. If you are a team with good offense, Silva gives you a definite shot too win (Texas comes to mind) or if you are a team in serious need of pitching depth (the Mets comes to mind as a team that would have been ideal for Silva) I think Silva helps. If you are a team with marginal defense who probably isn't really expected to contend terribly soon anyway, I don't think this is really such a fantastic chance to help the team.

SO while I think Silva is a solid guy to bring in, it is a move that doesn't really seem to fit the Mariner situation terribly well.

But I don't think Mariners fans will come to hate Carlos "El Diablo" Silva anytime soon.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 19, 2007 12:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I think the analysis is pretty poor actually. He does a good job of describing Silva, but then is confident that his skills are going to immediately drop off the table, with no real support for that. Silva had one tremendously poor season, one tremendously successful seasons, and 2 seasons where he has been an above-league-average starting pitcher. I think going forward he should be around a 4.50 ERA/FIP pitcher with around 200 IP, which is probably worth around 10 million/season or so on the free agent market.

by Diggity Dino on Dec 19, 2007 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

He also didn't realize that Silva added a third pitch in 07, a splitter that drops out of the strikezone. It was a pretty effective strike 2 count pitch that would look enough like the sinker to induce a protective swing. This is a very prominent reason for his numbers going back to respectability.

And yeah, for most teams it's a solid signing. But I think I'd cringe at the $11 million price tag.

by TheMattWilke on Dec 19, 2007 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Betencourt

When I saw ubelmann's short stop ratings related the Everette signing, I was shocked at how poor Betencourt was. This is despite DickNBert's pronouncement that he's the "best in the league" and other nonsense.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2007 12:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Being stationed out in Seattle...

...I can tell you that Betancourt definitely came with a top-notch reputation, but he hasn't lived up to that reputation at all. His range is fine, not great, but fine, but his throwing has been really erratic. He certainly has a ton of arm strength, but he hasn't been able to keep the ball on target.

Actually, to a large degree, Betancourt is the defender that many people think that Bartlett is--a guy who is below average because of his trouble with routine plays. The numbers support the assertion that Bartlett's range overcomes his mistakes, but that Betancourt's mistakes trump his range.

Nevertheless, Silva's biggest concern should be Richie Sexson. He's an absolute sieve on the right side of the infield. Between Beltre and Betancourt, the M's have a slightly above average left side of the infield.

by ubelmann on Dec 19, 2007 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya...

I was also under the impression that Seattle's infield defense was very good--at least up the middle--until I've finally studied them more lately (with probably the same figures as you CMath).

Crazy.

No matter though; they have grossly overpaid for 3/5 of their current starting rotation. And I do find that funny. I hate the Mariners, so it's rather comforting to me.

by djskilbr on Dec 19, 2007 1:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Strange...

I hate the Mariners too. And I'm an M's fan...

Or something.

by ElseIf on Dec 19, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

I don't HATE them. But I strongly dislike them. The results anyway.

by ElseIf on Dec 19, 2007 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the Mariners

In the same way I like the Royals and Rays and I used to like the Tigers--as regular whipping boys for the Twins.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha...

that's true.

Man, it must be painful for Mariners fans to know that you have the worst GM in baseball. And it is extremely difficult to have a GM worse than Jim Bowden. But Bavasi easily takes the cake at this point.

How does he still have a job?

by djskilbr on Dec 19, 2007 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What

What?!

Last time I checked, Jim Hendry still runs a baseball team, so this cannot be true...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 19, 2007 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Because he's not Brian Sabean?

by TheMattWilke on Dec 19, 2007 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tom ten worst GMs

My ranking:

Brian Sabean
Bill Bavasi
Kenny Williams
Jim Bowden
Ed Wade
Jim Hendry
Omar Minaya
Michael Hill
Jon Daniels
Wayne Krivsky

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2007 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

Sabean's bad, and so is Hendry, but has Bavasi made a SINGLE good move? Vidro at DH? Soriano for Ramirez? Ichiro's contract? Weaver? Batista? Silva? Washburn?

I mean, WOW!

Sabean at least has done some good things in the past, and he has drafted Cain/Lincecum. Plus he apparently had a very good draft this past year, for the first time in a while. My best friend is a Giants fan, and he keeps saying to me that he doesn't understand what happened to Sabean. He was very good up until about 4-5 years ago. I think we've both come to the conclusion that he's just become incredibly gunshy after the AJ trade.

I would also say some of the same things about Kenny. At least he has made some very good moves in the past. Now, not so much. My rankings would be something like this for worst:

Bavasi
Bowden
Hendry (payroll)
Sabean
Wade (recent moves are really baffling)
Williams
Colletti
Minaya
Daniels
Hill

I would move Krivsky off the list as he has actually made "mostly" good moves IMO.

by djskilbr on Dec 19, 2007 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Krivsky

He's made some bad deals, IMO. Juan Castro? Or how about making Bowden look good by sending a couple of useful players to the Nats for two marginal relievers, one of which was injured?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 19, 2007 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bavasi...

...signed Beltre to a fair contract. Ichiro's contract is fine, too. Trading for Ben Broussard was a good move. Trading Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez was not a good idea. Signing Jamie Burke as a backup catcher was decent. Trading two months of Freddy Garcia for prospects was a good idea, even though the prospects didn't pan out.

I mean, Bavasi's still awful, quite possibly the worst, but it seems like an exaggeration to say that everything he's done was bad.

And Jim Bowden has made some good moves recently. Based solely on the Milledge trade, he ought to be considered better than Omar Minaya. Bowden also got Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for essentially nothing, managed to dump a ton of Vidro's salary on Seattle, and took a gamble on Dimitri Young that paid off. I wouldn't go out and recommend that someone hire him, but I don't think he's the second-worst in the game right now.

by ubelmann on Dec 20, 2007 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair points ubelmann...

I don't think Beltre's/Ichiro's contracts were all that good. I guess he did get the salary deferment on Ichiro though, which is a plus. Was he in charge when Garcia was traded? I thought that was before him.

His pluses seem quite minor to me compared to the negatives.

As for Bowden, Kearns/Lopez haven't done much have they? Fair point on the Vidro dump (to Bavasi, why he's the worst to me). Dimitri paid off, but he also made a WORSE move by signing him. Especially when they have Nick Johnson. He could have had a fair prospect for Dimitri and sold him high. Keith Law does a good job at looking at this one. The Milledge trade was definitely good, but coupled with the Dukes trade, the jury is definitely out on that one. A scout at the winter meetings that I talked to (Seattle organization actually) was scared to death of the 2 of them together in Washington. I tend to agree. And then you have the Soriano fiasco. If the Twins' reported offer is true (Kubel/Baker/Slowey) then Bowden is REALLY a fool for not dealing him.

To me those are still the 2 worst GM's, but everyone on the list is pretty bad I guess so it's all semantics for us to rate them I guess.

by djskilbr on Dec 20, 2007 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I agree he's made some bad ones...

but 1) Even though that Nats deal appeared bad, has it really been? Kearns/Lopez haven't done much I don't think. I would also say though that a couple are puzzling, like the Baker hiring, or the Cordero contract.

2) He's made more good ones though, IMO. Brandon Phillips, for instance. Arroyo. Actually kind of assembling a bullpen.

Don't know. I just don't think he rises to top 10 bad, that's all. Personally.

by djskilbr on Dec 19, 2007 6:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what about us resigning Silva . . .

A year ago?

I just wonder what if the Twins had tried to sign him to a 3 or 4 year extension? I was all for it because I thought 06 was just a bad year. I just wonder what they could have gotten him for? I bet at least half price if not even less. 3/15 or 4/20. Obviously it's in the past but seriously wouldn't that look good now? What a nice piece of trade bait if nothing else for teams desperate for pitching this year.

by halfchest on Dec 19, 2007 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Long contract before '07 season

It would have been idiotic to sign him to a 3/4 year deal last offseason. Remember that he looked washed up after the '06 season. He was a few bad starts from losing his spot in the rotation and maybe being sent down. Would you really have wanted to risk being stuck with a AAAA pitcher making $5 mil a year?

Yes, he did resurrect his carreer by adding a splitter (and now he seems to have pulled a fast one on the Mariners...), but you have to realize that things were VERY different 12 months ago. Every GM would love a crystal ball, but the fact is that the Twins were probably too trusting of his abilities when they resigned him for 2007 in the first place.

-Flip

by Flip27 on Dec 20, 2007 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

With our

With our young pitching, I woudln't sing him to a 4 year, 5 mil per deal MOW.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 20, 2007 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I guess Seattle would. Times 2!

-Flip

by Flip27 on Dec 20, 2007 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That post

That post is a disaster of typos...

My post, not yours...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 21, 2007 6:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sinkerballers

Silva's feel for the sinker comes and goes, which is common for sinker ballers. The third pitch kept him in games longer in 07 than in 06, but only after he got smacked around for a couple of innings and had to adjust his approach to more of a fastball/change-up pitcher midgame.

Slowey's a better option right now and he's cheaper and has more upside. Blackburn is not far behind.

With Duensing, Swarzak and Mullins knocking on the door, to go along with Masterson and Manship, the Twins will have little trouble filling out their rotation for the next four years with cheaper better pitchers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 20, 2007 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs