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Winter Meetings Primer

As the Twins and Bill Smith prepare to play a significant role in possible player exchanges this week, here is a run-down of what Minnesota is looking at going in.

Twins Needs

  •  Center Field
  •  Third Base
  •  Shortstop
  •  Second Base
  •  Designated Hitter
Even with the acquisition of Brendan Harris last week, the Twins are still searching for players who could not only start every day, but play at higher levels than the options currently on the roster at all three infield positions.  Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Harris and others will all be competing for spots, but with none of them sure shots the door is still wide open.

Jason Kubel could be stepping into the DH slot now that Delmon Young is with the team, but just like the situation above the competition is still open.  With all the position players with the team, only left field, right field, first base and catcher are positions where a certain player could be marked as your everyday starter.

Santana Sweeps

New York Yankees:  Latest offer includes Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a "mid-level prospect"...and the offer is off the table on Monday.  If Bill Smith hasn't already turned this offer down he certainly could, because the Yankees aren't serious about Santana if this is all they're willing to offer up.  Unless of course the "mid-level prospect" is Paul O'Neill looking to make a comeback as a DH.

Boston Red Sox:  Jacoby Ellsbury is now on the table, although Jon Lester won't be included in the package...which is fine.  Boston actually has a couple of nice pitching prospects, if the Twins are looking to get a pitcher back in return.  Red Sox infield prospect Jed Lowrie (.291/.386/.448 minor league line) has also been mentioned, immediately making whatever offer the Yankees made above seem a bit underwhelming.  Ellsbury and Lowrie, offered with a pitcher, could make a very tempting offer for Smith.

Los Angeles Dodgers:  As often as they've been mentioned as compatible trade counterparts with the Twins, I've yet to read any (recent) concrete reports linking the Dodgers to interest in our Venezuelan southpaw.  Hopefully this changes at the Winter Meetings, because I still believe they have the most to offer in young position player talent.  Although the Ellsbury/Lowrie combo isn't bad.

Los Angeles Angels of Whatever:  They already have six starters to vie for five slots in the rotation, but for the right package I'm sure they'd find room for Johan.  Jared Weaver would be a starting point from Minnesota's perspective, while Ervin Santana (Santana lite?) and Joe Saunders would likely start the bidding from the Angels side of the border.  Howie Kendrick, and Brandon Wood in particular, would probably be position players of interest in the deal.

Seattle Mariners:  22-year old Adam Jones and 23-year old Wladimir Balentien, both outfielders, would be starting points in discussions with the Mariners, but Seattle is an extreme outside shot.  As close to no shot as you can have without actually having no shot.  General Manager Bill Bavasi has gone on record saying he won't overpay or "mortgage the future", and he might have to do both in order to land Santana.

New York Mets:  With Lastings Milledge dealt to Washington last week, if the Twins want an outfielder from Mr. Met they'll likely look at Carlos Gomez.  Omar Minaya has said Jose Reyes wouldn't be offered in a swap of any kind, including one for Santana, but the Mets would still have options if they wanted to make a push.  Unfortunately for them those options are largely pitchers once you get past Gomez and Fernando Martinez, which doesn't put the Mets in the drivers seat in the Santana sweepstakes.  In fact, it doesn't leave them in the car at all....maybe the trunk.

Joe Nathan Speculation

As much as I love Joe Nathan, if the Twins trade Johan Santana it doesn't make much sense to keep Joe around.  While the Twins will be competetive in 2008, it would take a lot to make them one of the best four teams in the American League, and holding onto one of the game's premier closers for one more season during a reload isn't a smart decision.  Nathan has a lot of value, and the Twins have a lot of holes to fill (even after Santana gets traded...if he does).

Prime suitors for Joe Nathan include Baltimore (Chris Ray or not), Texas (no clear-cut closer), the Dodgers (Takaski Saito will be 38), the Cubs (Ryan Dempster?), Milwaukee (lost Cordero to the Reds)  and Atlanta (Bob "I give up hits because I like it" Wickman).  Oh yes, and Colorado, because even though none of their primary relivers posted an ERA+ below 122 last year:  one was Jorge Julio (just average reliever, really), one was Matt Herges who will be 38, one was Jeremy Affelt (would you trust him?) and one was LaTroy Hawkins (what's up with that herky-jerk stop/start thing he does now?).  If the Twins want to dangle Joe Nathan, they'll have offers.

Conclusions

It's going to be an interesting few days, and if nothing happens for the Twins during the Winter Meetings I would be very, very, very, very, VERY surprised.  Well...maybe only four very's.

We've known that this will be a very pivotal and telling off-season for quite some time, and this could be the culmination of it all.  Continue to check back here for updates, and if you have one of your own that hasn't been reported yet, be sure to post it in a diary on the right-hand side of the page.

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Yankees vs Red sox
I seem to be in the minority that I prefer the Yankees offer at this point to the Red Sox.  Here is why:

Of all the players currently on the table, Hughes is the most talented.  He is the best pitching prospect in baseball, and he remains the number 1 best option out there to replace Johan.  This is of a greater deal of importance after losing Matt Garza.  I know we're still stocked with pitching, but adding the talent of Hughes seems to totally reload our pitching staff to be both electric and deep.

I'm not sold totally on Jacoby Ellsbury.  Well, scratch that, I'm not sold that he's even so much better than Melky cabrera.  Let's take a look beyond ellsbury's impressively hot major league debut that won the heart of the east coast.  Ellsbury's .814 carrer minor league OPS is solid, and obviously superioir to Melky's .769, but let's be fair and look at their ages.  Ellsbury was a college player who was 22 as a AA player and didn't play in AAA until he was 23.  Not that that is slow mind you.  But Cabrera did not play in college, turned 20 before playing in AA, had played in the MLB before turning 21, and was a full time player in the American league as a 21 year old.  He was a monster as a 21 year old in AAA, albeit in only 31 games before he was called up to the show.  Ellsbury certainly has the base stealing advantage and is reported to be a very good defensive center fielder, but Cabrera is no slouch defensively either.

The kicker to the Red Sox deal, though, is of coure Jed Lowrie.  I think he is a good young player and could probably step in immediately and hold his own as the Twins starting shortstop.  This would be nice, and fill a hole vacated by Bartlett's departure.

But I don't think we need to worry so hard about filling every hole with the Santana trade as much as we need to worry about filling a hole or two, but mostly just acquiring the best talent possible.  Lowrie would come in and start, adding merely another player to our hodgepodge of infield options.  I don't honestly see Lowrie at SS being so much better than Harris at second, but suddenly the newly aquired Harris would have a much harder time finding a job.  Alexi Casilla is supposed to be the heir apparent in the middle, why not just have him compete at SS with Punto instead of 2B?  He can be a part of the rebuilding as well.

And yes, that still leaves us with no 3B, but the Santana deal is not the end of the line.  If Santana goes, so goes Nathan, and there are many teams Nathan would fit well on that have great young 3B to offer, better than any infielder the Red Sox and Yankees are offering.  The Dodger's Andy LaRoche, the Rockie's Ian Stewart.  Nathan could very easily be traded for one of them, or a counterpart along with a decent relief prospect.

Also, if Santana and Nathan go, suddenly the TWins will have well over 30 million dollars to spend on this year's budget.  A lot of this can be put towards signing the likes of Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to long term deals.  But much of it could be spent to fill any holes the team may have left.

I think the bottom line is, the Red Sox offer gives us several decent players, but no great ones, leading us further into the problems of having more decent young players than we can hope to play, but no stars that can propel us very high.  Think of Harris, Buchser, Macri, Lowrie, Casilla, AND possibly a 3B we aquire in a Nathan trade fighting over playing time.  What happens to the ones that can't find space?  Is Casilla's speed wasted?  Is the replacement for bartlett wasted, making the Delmon YOung trade seem very one sided?

No, I'd rather have the A-guy atop the deal in Phil Hughes.  Cabrera would fill our CF hole very adequately and the third player would likely be a player around AA to further fill in our still strong farm system.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 3, 2007 3:56 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Generally I agree philosophically
That it's usually better to get the best guy, and that's Hughes, without question.

yesterday I strayed from that and said I preferred the Red Sox package, and I still think I feel that way, but you make the compelling case to get the guy who could be competing for post-season awards in the not too distant future.

Here's the problem in my view: the whole deal with the Yankees then depends on Hughes panning out, and pitchers are much more prone to unnatural development curves/injuries than position players. With the Sox deal, you have two position players that you can fairly confidently project over the next few years, with the Yanks, you have Cabrera, who I don't love, and then Hughes.  Hughes might be close to the best pitcher in the AL this year, (really), or it could be a train wreck.  

There's a greater amount of risk with that potential reward, and you have to decide where you are comfortable on that scale.  

by Eric in Madison on Dec 3, 2007 10:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have to agree with you
I think you have to get as much talent as you can, worrying minimally about what holes you are filling on your own team.  Once you get the max talent, Bill Smith can turn around and trade another one of our pitchers.

Also I am not convinced that Ellsbury>>>Melky

by TMoney on Dec 3, 2007 1:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No
The Twins badly need a boost to the offense.  Phil Hughes does not provide this.

by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 3, 2007 7:53 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nathan to the Rockies?
For Atkins and Franklin Morales?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 3, 2007 10:20 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd
make that deal in a heartbeat.

by Jesse on Dec 3, 2007 10:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Boston
The Twins need to make this deal fast. Before it changes. Eilsbury, Lowrie, and a pitcher. Thats a pretty good deal. Then move Nathan for a SS or 3B. I fear that BSmith is going to sit on his hands for tool long and lose this one.

by WITwinsfan on Dec 3, 2007 11:30 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yankees vs. Red Sox
(first-time commenter, recently found this site)

I have to say I feel pretty good about either the Yankees or Sox trades.  As a native New Englander, I'd rather see the Yankees get ripped off-- not that I think the trade as it's been discussed is one-sided-- but I also really like Ellsbury.

Hughes is as close to a sure thing as there is, from everything I've read.  And Melky is an above-average outfielder... That's a pretty good 2 for 1, and when you throw in another mid-level prospect?  I feel good about that.

On balance, I'd take the NY trade.  I like the idea of watching Hughes on opening day, 2010.

by mtullius on Dec 3, 2007 11:58 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Welcome to TT
I hope you're back often.

As far as I'm concerned it isn't that the package the Yankees are allegedly offering is "bad", it's that the largest weakness on this team (even after Santana would be traded) is offensive production from the position players.  Hughes is certainly a fine prospect, but the Twins have plenty of their own and next to zero position player talent to fill in holes on offense.  Ellsbury/Lowrie or Kemp/LaRoche simply addresses a bigger weakness than Cabrera/Hughes.  At least that's where I've been coming from.

by Jesse on Dec 3, 2007 12:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kemp/LaRoche
Man, the more I think about it and the more I look at those guys' numbers, the more I feel like getting that kind of cheap talent at positions we need would be an absolute steal. I'm talking about just Kemp/LaRoche for Santana.

I mean, Coletti's no Billy Beane, but is he really that stupid? Besides, would Santana really push the Dodgers far enough ahead of the NL pack to be worth it for them?

by ravenfly on Dec 3, 2007 1:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd love
I'd absolutely love to get ahold of some Dodger players as well, but i just don't see that as likely at this point.

I'm also pretty dang mad at Terry Ryan at the present moment for not taking that 90 million extension last year.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 3, 2007 1:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Dodgers
Are trying to land Cabrera and must hold onto their prospects to do so. The best thing that could happen is the Angels landing Cabrera and the Dodgers then jumping into the Santana fray.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 3, 2007 4:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

is he really that stupid?
Yes. He's Brain Sabean's understudy.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 3, 2007 1:44 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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