Winter Meetings Review
by Jesse on Dec 6, 2007 12:01 PM EST
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Print"Oh, I'm - oh, what? Well, I've - oh."
"What is it, Sebastian? I'm arranging matches."
"Well, I - I thought you - ... I'd better go."
"Yes, I think you'd better had."
Hope you enjoyed that excerpt from Eddie Izzard's stand-up Dress to Kill. That's kind of how the Winter Meetings felt, wasn't it? A lot of expectations that, once you cut through the palpable tension, really amounted to jack squat. That's how LEN III felt sitting in the lobby for three days, looking at La Velle's blog you kind of have to feel for the guy. Someone here described the winter meetings as, "four days where good journalism goes out the window.'' That's a tough spot to be in.
In the end, lots of names and teams were bantered around, but there was actually very little fruition in regards to things actually happening. Chris Basak was booted from the 40-man, and....and...litering and...litering and...
So for now, Johan Santana is still a Minnesota Twin. I'm okay with that, because Johan is the balls. So is Joe Nathan, who sounds confident that he'll be our closer on opening day. And that's not a bad thing, because he's pretty good.
Life goes on in Minnesota and for the Twins. No doubt things will continue to sift and settle after the GM's all board planes and jet back to their respective offices, but for the rest of the day things should probably be relatively quiet. (Am I trying to jinx the quiet...maybe.)
It's snowing again in Minneapolis. Drive carefully.
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The Twins passed
They also passed in the minor league phase, which is just an indication that they have a hard time finding slots for all the players they have. The Twins have signed more players than any other organization the last four years. The Rule 5 is a way of sloughing off the dead skin (and getting a little cash back for their investments in these guys).
Not trading prospects......
I'm sure there's a epcking order for the prospects, a list of 150. I'm sure that even though we always talk of the top 10 or 20 in the system, it is often those guys in the 50-100 area that MIGHT make the majors at some point, as a role player, back-up, or surprise.
The stars do make it bigtime, but there always seems to be a need for the Dustan Mohr, Lew Ford, Denny Hucking, Jeff Reboulet, Matt Guerrier (proved to be a good pickup), Travis Miller, Dan Serafini-type guy.
Again, the Twins had/have a few prospects to add to any trade. Match up some guys who you may not keep in the system and have an upside (if a guy doesn't have an upside, how long do they stay in the system).
Garrett Guzman could be a fine abckup outfielder. Equally as good as Tyner. Maybe on par with Pridie, or better with some pop. The pitchers the Twins lost could prove dominant...J.P. Martinez could be a late-blooming major-league guy at age 26-27-28 (as Lahey could). Doi you hear Pat Neshek? A fine middle-relief guy that could excel is some save situations?
Know Thy Prospects!
by twintown on Dec 6, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
Let me say again:
So that's my message to the Twins.
You must go for it this year at all costs and let next year worry about itself. If you fail this year, you need to blow up the team.
Please no
The Twins already are in a rebuilding phase, that's why they were trying to trade Johan. The rebuild will continue, Johan or not, and putting it off for a year will only put the Twins behind even further because you're asking the organization to deplete the farm to extend the hope of one last surge. If there were enough players in place I could be convinced of this idea, but there are way too many holes on this team that can't be covered by trading pitching prospects.
I like having Johan on the team. But if they aren't going to trade him to bolster that rebuild, then he needs to be re-signed with the intent of having him be a cornerstone of said rebuild. Simply having Santana and Nathan around doesn't mean the Twins could compete by adding one or two pieces.
The Twins have a chance to be fun to watch the next couple of years, and then if the ride players come in for Santana and Nathan and minor league trades and free agent acquisitions, the Twins will be ready to compete in a couple of years. The alternative is to mortgage the farm to prevent the inevitable, and then watch the Twins hit rock bottom when the stadium opens.
Right now mortaging makes no sense to me. You're welcome to convince me though, I'd love to be wrong.
I dunno
It was an insane comeback against all odds but if the Twins hadn't dug themselves in a whole to begin with it would have just been a solid year with a core of players that minus Torii plus Young is still in place. I guess Radke is gone but whatever.
Plus we still haven't gotten a Santana/Liriano post-season yet. That one-two combo if it's on has got to be worth even more in the post-season.
Look at the Twins.......
Yes, some raises are due, but they also cut Lew Ford. They could cut Tyner. Figure out how NOT to keep Rincon.
They just received $200,000 in the Rule 5.
The payroll should increase a bit from the $70 million. Will it be $80? Only the Pohlad's know and nothing has been announced.
They can keep Johan and compete.
They need a centerfielder. Maybe get Crisp for a couple of youngsters. Maybe get Juan Pierre (arrgh). Maybe sign Loften. There's a couple of otehr averaage guys out there, still, too.
Right now their batting order is Kubel, Mauer, Young, Morneau, Cuddyer. Sounds pretty decent. I'm glad they aren't paying a guy $18 million to bat sixth.
The infield needs something. Harris, Casilla, Punto, Buscher, Macri. Doesn't even sound like a promising legal firm. Go ahead and sign Eckstein. You got your lead-off guy. Decide who you want at second -- Harris/Casilla/Punto. Whoever loses goes to the bench (hopefully Punto). I could live with Harris at third, but it probably means more playing time for Punto overall. Keep Harris at second, make Punto the swing man, and get a third baseman.
Can the Twins buy three players and be competitive? Maybe, probably.
Santana, Liriano/Perkins (open with Perkins, send him down when Liriano is ready...just get 200_ innings out of the paid) followed by Baker and Slowey. Boof sees where he is at. You have Balckburn and Duensing in the wings, or Bass. Or maybe you get Colon.
Do the Twins have $20 million in payroll to work with (Rincon $4, Castillo $6, Hunter $12, Silva $6, Ronell $3.5, others $3. Hummmmmm.....looks pretty inviting. Oh, Ford $1.) Man, add Santana and Nathan to those savings and the Twins would be luck to hit $50 million this season.....hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
by twintown on Dec 6, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
The Twins have holes...
If they want to contend with the Tigers and Indians, they have to make trades to acquire front-line talent. Their only chip in such a trade is Santana. The idea is to downgrade your #1 to a Lester-level pitcher and get guys who can fill the other holes in the process. It won't be easy, but it must be done. If the Twins enter the season with Santana and holes in the left side, they will lose.
And when Santana signs a 6-year, $175 million contract with the Yankees, they will be left with less than half the talent in draft choices than they're being offered in trade right now.
A Liriano/Santana combo in the playoffs is a pipe dream. Even if the Twins pull off some kind of a 2006 miracle, Liriano will be out of gas in October. We'd be lucky to get 175 innings out of him in the regular season.
Or Nathan...
Santana or Nathan. The teams with the best prospects to offer seem to mostly have the closer role filled already, though. Of course, that could change if there are some arm injuries before the trading deadline.
In general, though, I agree with the thought. This is a team with a lot of holes to fill. Having superstars is great, but having superstars didn't get us very far last year. The Twins need to balance out the roster and trading Santana and/or Nathan seems to be the best way to do that right now.
The problem with the...
by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 6, 2007 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
well, roger
That's the best time...
So what I propose is go for it in 2008 then rebuild 2009-2010 (maybe even 11) seasons and then by the time the new place aura has worn off, they will be good enough to keep support. They can do it if Liriano comes back at full strength this year. Ideally they should have decided that after 2007 and gotten Hunter back but I still don't think it's not too late.
I guess it all comes down to what is "1 Ring" worth? To me--everything.
You can't guarantee a ring, though
A) Rebuild, sacrifice winning now for the future
or
B) Go for it now and get ring with 100% probability
Then obviously you choose B. Flags fly forever and even if you sell off, maybe you'll compete again soon (see the '97 and '03 Marlins, for example.) The problem is that "going for it" means the Twins give themselves at most, what, a 25% chance that they win the World Series? And I'd say that's wildly optimistic with the Indians (who still have Sabathia/Carmona, btw) and Tigers in their division plus the Red Sox (returning WS champs) and Yankees (should have healthier pitching than last year) in the same league.
I mean, even if the Twins went "all in" this year or whatever, I don't see how they can really be considered head and shoulders above any of those four teams (or the Angels, but I'll ignore them for now.) So they maybe have a 20% chance at becoming the AL champs, optimistically. Then they have to win the WS after that, which is what, a 75% if we're still being really optimistic? That's something like a 15% chance to win the WS, even if we're being pretty optimistic about what the Twins could do this year. If that means significantly sacrificing the future, I don't think a 15% chance at a ring is worth it, let alone the less than 15% chance at a ring which would be a more realistic estimate.
9th Pick
Soemtimes you can pick up guys from the minor league end, but with the depth (supposed) in the Twins system, it's not much different to draft an A/AA guy for your system as to sign an AAA free-agent for your high-level club.
I never really udnerstood the minor league end, except that you can get some money for players taken.
by twintown on Dec 6, 2007 1:48 PM EST reply actions
Nathan = not yet
That being said, Jesse is awesome like a hot dog.
I must say, i don't understand this
I understand that some teams might be desperate then when their bullpens are failing them, and that might make Nathan somehow more attractive, but on the other hand, if you wait, some teams will come up with other solutions.
See what you can get for him now, I say.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 7, 2007 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Why worth more?
Still, I'm with you: Trade him now and plug holes with his value.
It's a gamble
- He's only under contract through this season
- If Joe gets hurt, you get nothing
- You have to hope something happens in the market to increase his value
The other two options are Nathan's value declining, or remaining steady. If Nathan's value were to remain steady there's no reason to keep him, because now you're hoping he doesn't get hurt.
Essentially, if the Twins know they want to trade Nathan, it's a calculated and dangerous risk waiting until July...but it could pay off. But with his value as high as it is right now...why wait? How much more could you get in July than in January?
The kicker......
You'll still get something decent, at least the equivalent of a first round pick and supplemental draft pick that the trading team would get by picking him up from you, only you get it from players who have been in the system for a season...the new guys get to draft.
Trading him now is the same as the Santana system, except you don't need to renegotiate his contract for 2998. You can rtade him and THEN the team ahs to sign him, no 72-hour window of necessity with Nathan. But that's an awful risk for the trading aprty, so theya re going to give you whatever a one-year $6 million closer is worth to them with an option to extend his contract.
Hummmmmmmmm...Nathan could prove to be tougher to deal than Santana!?
by twintown on Dec 7, 2007 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
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