Simulation Madness

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2007 11:58 PM EST Comment 23 comments

The Twins have made their way into the quarter-finals of the Simulation Madness tournament. They just knocked off the Blue Jays 4 games to 2. Here is the recap.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

Game 1: Roy Halladay vs Johan Santana
The Blue Jays lead 4-0 after 2 1/2 innings but the Twins rallied to take a
5-4 lead after five innings. The Blue Jays tied the game up in the 6th, sending
Johan Santana to the showers after making 110 pitches and striking out 8 batters.
The Twins sealed the deal with three runs in the bottom of the 7th, the big blow
coming on a 2-run homer from catcher Joe Mauer. Joe Nathan and Jesse Crain struggled
to close out the game as the Blue Jays pulled to within one run in the 9th. Pat Neshek
came in with 2 outs and the tying run on second base and struck out Vernon Wells to end
the game. Twins won 8-7.
HRs: Hunter(1), Mauer(1), Thomas(1)
Minnesota leads 1-0

Game 2: A.J. Burnett vs Carlos Silva
Cruising along with a 6-2 in the 8th inning, Burnett ran into trouble allowing a 2-run
home run to Jason Kubel. The Twins ended up tying the game with a four run 8th inning.
Nick Punto doubled home Luis Castillo with two outs in the 9th inning and the Twins
won another one run game 7-6. Jesse Crain was marvelous in relief and picked up the win.
HRs: Thomas(2), Zaun(1), Kubel(1)
Minnesota leads 2-0

Game 3: Boof Bonsor vs Gustavo Chacin
The Blue Jays jumped out to an early 4-0 first inning lead behind a Troy Glaus 3-run
home run. The Twins struck for three in the top of the 6th inning on one of Michael
Cudduyers two home runs. The Twins chased Chacin in the 7th with three more runs but
Troy Glaus was far from finished as he hit a solo home run in the 7th to draw the Jays
to within 6-5. Frank Thomas evened the game up in the bottom of the 8th with a solo
home run, his third of the series. The game went into extra innings tied at six, when
none other than Troy Glaus won the game with a no-out walk off HR, his third of the game.
B.J. Ryan picked up the win with one perfect inning of relief.
HRs: Thomas(3), Glaus(1,2,3), Cudduyer(1,2), Hunter(1), Bartlett(1)
Minnesota leads 2-1

Game 4: Matt Garza vs Shaun Marcum
Shaun Marcum took a 5 hit shutout into the 9th inning leading 2-0. He gave up a two run
home run to Justin Morneau and then was left in the game and gave up a solo home run to
Jason Kubel as the Twins took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the 9th. Vernon Wells hit a
leadoff double off of Twins closer Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9th but was stranded on
third base and the Twins won in shocking fashion 3-2 in yet another one run game.
HRs: Thomas(4), Kubel(2), Morneau(1)
Minnesota leads 3-1

Game 5: Scott Baker vs Tomo Ohka
With their backs against the wall the Blue Jays gave the ball to rotator cuff castaway
Tomo Ohka. The Jays gave him plenty of early support with four runs in the first inning,
three off the bat of Vernon Wells and a solo HR from Thomas. Ohka had a 6-0 lead heading into
the 7th inning. In the top of the 7th Cudduyer got the Twins on the board with a solo HR and
Jay killer Jason Kubel doubled home two more runs pulling the Twins to within 6-3 and bringing
Brandon League into the game. League killed the rally and the Blue Jays tacked on three
insurance runs in the 8th and went on to win 9-4 with Ohka getting a much deserved win.
HRs: Thomas(5), Cudduyer(3), Wells(1)
Minnesota leads 3-2

Game 6: Roy Halladay vs Johan Santana
A scoreless game headed into the bottom of the 6th inning, the Twins drew first blood on a solo
home run by infielder Nick Punto. The Twins added two more in the 7th when Morneau singled, Hunter
doubled and Rondell White singled them both home. Santana pitched brilliantly into the 8th inning,
but after throwing 146 pitches and allowing the Blue Jays first run he was pulled from the game. The
Blue Jays scored another run, pulling to within 3-2 in the 9th inning but closer Joe Nathan came in with
one out and the tying run on 2nd base and retired the next two batters to end the game and the Blue Jays
title hopes.
HRs: Punto(1)
Minnesota wins 4-2

http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

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Home runs

That's a lot of dingers! Based on 2006 team batting stats, I'd expect 13-14 home runs in a 6 game series between the Twins and the Blue Jays. The 21 home runs in your simulation is 50% above this average! I suppose it doesn't hurt to have Frank Thomas hitting 5 home runs in five games. In the real world, Thomas hit 6 hrs in 6 games during Sept 5-11, 2006.

by BlueCanoe on Feb 16, 2007 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sure

Sure is a lot, but that kind of thing happens, and a good simulator will have some hot and cold streaks by random nature.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 16, 2007 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HRs vs. Indians, Red Sox

26 home runs in each of those series, which is nearly 2 home runs per team per game. This seems consistently high. Fluke?

The Twins hit at least one home run in every game of all three simulated series, a streak of 20 games. The longest real Twins HR streak in franchise history is 16 games in the spring of 1979 (although I'm not sure how that streak happened either, with only three Twins hitting more than 10 HRs on the season and no one hitting more than 25).

by BlueCanoe on Feb 20, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I

I was thinking that too. I wonder if those bnumbers aren't way to high...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 20, 2007 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

simulator statistics

Presumably the simulator, if run multiple times, would eventually come up with a result with something like 7 total home runs (-50%). Of course the true test would be to look at the distribution of results from a large pool of simulation trials. The sim average should match the real average then, I expect. I also expect that whoever made the sim ran these kinds of tests to "tune" the model?

by BlueCanoe on Feb 16, 2007 4:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"but after throwing 146 pitches"

What are the chances that ever happens? .000001%?

by drnkmn on Feb 16, 2007 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I laughed when I read that

My first thought was, "Did they fire Gardy and hire Dusty Baker?" My second thought was, Santana is much more efficient with his pitches than Prior or Wood ever were. In his complete games, I think the most he ever pitched over 9 innings was 119 pitches. And he struggled with his control that day. He rarely throws more than 100 pitches over eight innings.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 16, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitch count

Technically, the percentage is 0.000000% based on past real-world statistics. Ron Gardenhire has never let a Twins pitcher throw more than 140 pitches as manager. The top three pitch counts under Gardie:

137 Eric Milton 2002-08-01 MIN CHW W 6-0 SHO9
131 Kenny Rogers 2003-08-15 MIN @KCR W 9-2 GS-8
126 Brad Radke 2003-09-11 MIN @CHW W 5-2 CG 9

(from Baseball-Reference.com)

by BlueCanoe on Feb 16, 2007 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And thank...

...God for that. If there's one thing I can praise Gardenhire for without caveat, it's the way he keeps the pitchers healthy. He treats them like long-term investments rather than rented mules, and I appreciate that.

by ubelmann on Feb 16, 2007 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fully agreed...

I've got my qualms with Gardy (quite a few to be sure) but managing our pitching staff isn't one of them for the most part.

by djskilbr on Feb 17, 2007 4:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the comments

I am the author of the sim program. It uses some statistically and sabermetrically inclined algorithms for determining the likeliehood of many of the events. Things but not all that are taken into account.

Event rates of each hitter (1b, 2b, 3b, HR, BB, GB, FB, K, OBP).
Event rates of events controllable by each pitcher (BB, K, HR), league average on other more fielding dependent events.
Algorithm for innefectiveness of pitcher based on number of pitches thrown. There is a sabermetric algorithm for this.
Algorithm for left/lefty etc... splits.
Algorithm for home field advantage adjustments.
Algorithm for when to pinch hit, remove a pitcher, sacrifice bunt, steal and attempt to take an extra base.
Park adjustment option.

Not every aspect can be modeled nor should it be modeled. When I did my NL West team comparisons using the simulator I ran 2500 simulations of each pitching matchup, it cuts the margin of error in the winning percentage down to 0.010 In a seven game series you are looking at a very high standard deviation, thus the common belief that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

The Twins/Indians quarter-finals matchup will take place this evening.

vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Feb 16, 2007 5:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

simulations / models

Having experience with computer models (albeit something other than baseball), I know that any model is built on a foundation of algorithms, assumptions, and fudge factors. Nevertheless, I find baseball simulators very interesting and fun. If the playoffs are a crapshoot, might as well shoot the crap a couple of times and see what happens, I say. Thanks for posting this, Xeifrank.

by BlueCanoe on Feb 16, 2007 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if nothing else

it provides some entertainment until the start of spring training. the sad thing is I found I'm actually cheering for the simulated teams.

by TMoney on Feb 17, 2007 2:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland vs Minnesota ........... Recap

Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

Game 1: CC Sabathia vs Johan Santana
The Indians ran into a buzz-saw. Twins ace, Johan Santana was on
his game, pitching a complete game 10 hitter, striking out 8 and the
computer left him in for 136 pitches. Sabathia meanwhile, was chased
in the 4th inning as the Twins fell behind 7-2 after four. The big
blow was a 4th inning 3-run home run by Joe Mauer. Michael Cudduyer
homered twice for the Twins and Ryan Garko was the only Indian hitter
that Santana had trouble with as he also homered twice.
HRs: Cudduyer(1,2), Garko(1,2), Mauer(1)
Minnesota leads 1-0

Game 2: Cliff Lee vs Carlos Silva
When three players on the same team have five RBIs in a game what
more is there to say other than the Indians pitching staff got
hammered. Michael Cudduyer went 4 for 4 with a single, double, two
home runs, 2 walks, 5 RBIs and scored 4 runs as the Twins blew out
the Indians 22-7. Off to Cleveland.
HRs: Cudduyer(3,4), Morneau(1), Kubel(1), Bartlett(1), Martinez(1)
Minnesota leads 2-0

Game 3: Boog Bonsor vs Jake Westbrook
Home cooking and a little timely hitting was just what the doctor ordered
for the Indians. The Twins jumped out to a 2nd inning 2-0 lead on a 2-run
home run from Rondell White. The Indians who only scraped together four hits
the entire game got a 3-run home run from Andy Marte in the bottom of the 4th
inning. And that was the game's only scoring. Jake Westbrook pitched 7 solid
innings, giving up 8 hits, striking out one and walking two batters, while making
104 pitches in getting the win. Tom Mastny and Joe Borowski each pitched an
inning of relief, Borowski getting the save.
HRs: Marte(1), White(1)
Minnesota leads 2-1

Game 4: Matt Garza vs Paul Byrd
Both Garza and Byrd gave their teams quality starts. The Twins broke through first
with two runs in the top of the 5th inning. The Indians scored once in the
bottom of the 6th and twice in the bottom of the 7th on an Andy Marte 2-run home
run, giving the Indians a 3-2 lead after 7 innings. In the top of the 8th, Justin
Morneau clubbed a solo home run to tie the game off of reliever Tom Mastny. Not to be
outdone, Cleveland catcher Victor Martinez hit a solo home run in the bottom half of
the 8th to put the Indians up 4-3 heading into the 9th inning. Joe Borowski pitched a
perfect 9th inning to preserve the Cleveland win and evened up the series at two games
each.
HRs: Marte(2), Martinez(1), Morneau(2)
Series tied 2-2

Game 5: Scott Baker vs Jeremy Sowers
Scott Baker only allowed 5 hits over 6-2/3 innings, the problem was three of those five
hits were home runs, a 2-run home run from Grady Sizemore and a 3-run home run from Twin-killer
Andy Marte. The Indians took a 6-0 lead into the 8th inning, only to see the Twins score
four times, three came on Jason Kubel's 3-run home run. Joe Borowski pitched a scoreless
9th inning for the save and the Indians held on to win 6-4. All five games so far have been
won by the home team.
HRs: Marte(3), Martinez(2), Sizemore(1), Kubel(2)
Cleveland leads 3-2

Game 6: CC Sabathia vs Johan Santana
With their season on the brink, who better to turn to than Johan Santana.
The Indians jumped out to a 1-0 top of the 3rd inning lead, only to see the Twins strike
back for three runs in the bottom half of the 3rd inning. Cleveland cut the lead to 3-2
in the 4th inning. The score remained 3-2 until the top of the 8th inning. Johan Santana
was pulled after making 111 pitches and striking out 9 and allowing 6 hits. Reliever Jesse
Crain gave up the tying run and the score was 3-3 headed into the bottom of the 8th inning.
In the bottom of the 8th inning, Michael Cudduyer hit what would turn out to be the game
winning home run off of Fernando Cabrera, leading the Twins to a 4-3 victory. Joe Nathan
pitched a perfect 9th inning and picked up the save.
HRs: Cudduyer(5)
Series tied 3-3

Game 7: Cliff Lee vs Carlos Silva
It's games like these that the Twins wish they had a healthy Liriano. The Indians jumped out
to a first inning 2-0 lead on a 2-run home run off the bat of David Dellucci. The Twins answered
with one run in the bottom half of the 2nd inning, when Indian-killer Michael
Cudduyer clubbed a solo home run. The Indians knocked Carlos Silva out of the game in the 5th
inning when they rallied for 3 runs off of a solo home run by Grady Sizemore and a 2-run home run
by Travis Hafner. Cliff Lee ran into a little trouble at the 114 pitch mark in the 8th inning, the
Twins were able to cut the lead to 5-2 heading into the 9th. Joe Borowski got the leadoff batter out
in the bottom of the 9th inning, and that was the last Twins batter to make an out. After already
scoring one run and loading the bases with one out, the Indians pulled Borowski in favor of the hard
throwing Fernando Cabrera. Michael Cudduyer greated Cabrera with a blast into the center field seats,
ending one of the most exciting series ever simulated.
HRs: Cudduyer(6,7), Sizemore(2), Dellucci(1), Hafner(1)
Minnesota wins 4-3

Up next for the Twins will be the Boston Red Sox in the semi-finals

by Xeifrank on Feb 18, 2007 2:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cuddyer

I fully expect Cuddyer to keep up this 1 hr/game pace. Anything less will be unacceptable.

by BlueCanoe on Feb 18, 2007 2:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

Wow, how's THAT for an MVP performance.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 18, 2007 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Twins vs Red Sox....... semi final recap

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox

Game 1: Johan Santana vs Curt Schilling
The Red Sox drew first blood in the bottom of the 1st inning, when Manny
Ramirez doubled home David Ortiz. The Red Sox added to their 1-0 lead in the
3rd inning on a solo home run from Dustin Pedroia and an RBI single from
Manny Ramirez. The Twins rallied for three runs in the top of the 5th inning
to tie the game on RBIs from Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto and Joe Mauer. The Red
Sox chased Johan Santana in the 7th inning when Dustin Pedroia lead off with a triple.
Juan Rincon came in and allowed the go-ahread run on an RBI double off the bat of Julio
Lugo. The Red Sox took a 4-3 lead into the 9th inning and brought in Mike Timlin
to close out the game. Timlin got the first batter out then allowed back to back
singles to Castillo and Punto. Craig Hansen then came in in relief and promptly gave
up a 3-run home run to Joe Mauer. Joe Nathan pitched a scoreless 9th inning and the Twins
took game one 6-4. Schilling pitched 7 innings, scattered 9 hits, struck out 6 and
walked one in the loss.
HRs: Mauer(1), Pedroia(1)
Minnesota leads 1-0

Game 2: Carlos Silva vs Daisuke Matsuzaka
Coco Crisp homered in the 2nd inning and the Red Sox took an early 2nd inning 3-1
lead. Carlos Silva was lifted in the 5th inning for a pinch hitter and Daisuke was
still going strong. In the 7th inning the Twins cut the lead to 3-2 on a solo home
run off the bat of Joe Mauer. Daisuke was lifted after 7 innings and 121 pitches,
having allowed 9 hits, striking out 6 and walking 3. The Red Sox brought in closer
Mike Timlin to preserve the Red Sox 3-2 lead in the 9th inning. The Twins first three
batters reached base and the Twins tied the score. Craig Hansen came in the game and
allowed two of Timlin's baseruners to score and the Twins took a 5-3 lead into the
bottom of the 9th inning. Joe Nathan came in and struck out the side in the 9th and
the Twins won 5-3. J.D. Drew went 0 for 4
HRs: Mauer(2), Crisp(1)
Minnesota leads 2-0

Game 3: Josh Beckett vs Boof Bonsor
The Red Sox started like gangbusters scoring four times in the top of the 1st inning.
J.D. Drew singled home one run and Jason Varitek followed with the 3-run home run. The
Twins not to be outdone scored three runs, all coming on a 3-run home run by MVP Justin
Morneau. The Red sox held a 4-3 lead until the Twins scored a run in the bottom of the
6th inning to tie things at 4-4. Josh Beckett was knocked out of the game in the 7th
inning on his 81st pitch as the Twins scored three times, two of those runs coming on a
2-run double by Michael Cuddyer. Leading 7-4 the Twins then added an insurance run in the
8th inning. Juan Rincon was brilliant in relief, pitching the last four innings of the game
and only allowing one hit, while striking out 6 and walking none. The biggest difference so
far has been the Twins superior bullpen.
HRs: Varitek(1), Morneau(1), Hunter(1)
Minnesota leads 3-0

Game 4: Jon Papelbon vs Matt Garza
The Red Sox hoping to pull another miracle comeback out of their hats, sent Jon Papelbon
to the mound trailing 3 games to nil. The Red Sox made sure in this game that they didn't
need their bullpen. The Red Sox scored 7 runs in the 2nd inning, 5 in the 5th inning and went
on to route the Twins by the score of 19-5. Jon Papelbon went 7-2/3 innings, allowing 12 hits,
striking out 5, walking 2 and made 130 pitches in the win. David Ortiz went 2 for 3, with a single,
home run, 3 walks and scored 3 times. Kevin Youkilis went 4 for 6, with a single, two doubles, a
home run, 7 RBIs and scored 3 times. The Red Sox will try to send the series back to Boston in
game 5.
HRs: Mauer(3), Youkilis(1), Ortiz(1), Ramirez(1), Varitek(2)
Minnesota leads 3-1

Game 5: Tim Wakefield vs Scott Baker
Once again Boston got out to a quick start, as Manny Ramirez hit a 3-run home run and two 2-run home
runs as the Red Sox built up 5th inning 12-1 lead. Wakefield ran into trouble in the bottom of the 6th
inning as the Twins got back five of those runs, three of them coming on Jason Kubel's home run. The Twins
then rallied in the bottom of the 8th, scoring another 5 runs and pulling to within 12-11. Reliever Craig
Hansen had trouble finding the plate. The Red Sox scored one in the 9th inning, giving them a two run
cushion to work with. Mike Timlin came in and pitched a perfect 9th inning, giving the Red Sox an exciting
13-11 lead and sending the series back to Boston.
HRs: Ramirez(2,3,4), Varitek(3), Mauer(4), Morneau(2), Kubel(1)
Minnesota leads 3-2

Game 6: Johan Santana vs Curt Schilling
To win this series the Red Sox will have to beat Cy Young award winner Johan Santana. The Twins don't want
to have anything to do with Carlos Silva and a game seven. The Red Sox struck for two runs in the bottom of the
first inning off of Santana, both coming on a single by J.D. Drew. The score remained 2-0 headed into the top of
the 9th inning. With two outs, Jason Kubel drilled a Curt Schilling fastball into the bleachers pulling the Twins
to within 2-1. Mike Timlin came in the game and got Rondell White to strike-out and the Red Sox pulled even in the
series 3 games a piece.
HRs: Kubel(2)
Series tied 3-3

Game 7: Carlos Silva vs Daisuke Matsuzaka
The Red Sox come into this game as heavy favorites having one three games in a row and having Japanese superstar
pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka headed to the mound. Let's see what happened... The Red Sox scored one run in the bottom
of the first inning on a solo home run by David Ortiz. The Twins took a 2-1 lead in the 5th inning, only to see the
Red Sox storm back with three in the bottom half of the inning and re-take a 4-2 lead. The Red Sox held a 5-3 lead headed
into the 8th inning when things got interesting. Matsuzaka allowed the first Twin batter to reach base and was
immediately pulled from the game. Devern Hansack came in and gave up home runs to both Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo
and the Twins took a 7-5 lead. In the bottom of the 8th inning Jesse Crain had trouble finding the strike zone and the
Red Sox cashed in on Dustin Pedroia's 3-run blast over the Green Monster to give the Red Sox an 8-7 lead heading
into the 9th inning. Mike Timlin struggled in the 9th inning allowing an RBI double off the bat of Joe Mauer as the Twins
tied the game and sent it to extra innings. Manny Delcarmen pitched 3-2/3 scoreless innings of relief in the extra frames
and the Red Sox won the game in the bottom of the 12th inning on a one out walk off solo home run off the bat of Mike
Lowell, completing a miraculous 4 game comeback.
HRs: Castillo(1), Hunter(2,3), Ortiz(2), Lowell(1), Pedroia(1)
Boston wins series 4-3

Next up... Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox, Championship series

Sorry Twins fans. :) vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 20, 2007 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ugg

ugg, choking like that hurt to read, even though it wasn't real...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 20, 2007 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya, it really did...

I could actually easily see it being us and Boston in the ALCS if the kids come through (I think Boston is easily the best team in baseball this year though), but no way in heck do the Cubs make the Series. I just don't see it.

by djskilbr on Feb 21, 2007 2:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Enjoyable read, although thought it was interesting that:

Silva was pulled for a Pinch Hitter. Was he DHing?

Rincon went 4 innings in one game.

by Diggity Dino on Feb 21, 2007 8:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 27, 2007 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs