Who Would You Trade?

by Chaddens on Feb 20, 2007 3:39 PM EST Comment 49 comments

Who Would You Trade?
I was checking out Roger's arcticle over at Twin Cities Dugout (http://twins.scout.com/2/620210.html) and I am amazed at the number of pitchers in the Twins Minor League System (Good work, as always, Roger). When viewing what Rogers writes and then seeing what Tom Verducci writes over at CNNSI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/tom_verducci/02/20/al.watch/index.html), you have to think that Tampa Bay and Minnesota have to be natural trade partners. Minnesota really could use a left and center fielder for the future (assuming Kubel can't play the outfield and Hunter leaves via Free Agency) and Tampa Bay really needs pitching.

From Verducci: "Elijah Dukes, OF. The Rays like Duke's skills so much they will consider carrying him on the major-league roster even if they can't guarantee him regular time -- a rarity for a young player with such a high ceiling. Tampa Bay seems set in the outfield with Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli and Delmon Young, but a big spring and continued maturity as a professional might earn Dukes a promotion. And if Young and Dukes each establish themselves as prime-time ready, Tampa Bay can shop from its outfield surplus to find pitching."

Crawford has stated he isn't a center fielder so assume he stays in left. Also, I would assume MN would not want Delmon Young because of character issues and Dukes would be untouchable. Since pitching is such a premium in any organization and the Twins "seem" to have so much of it, who would you trade to get Crawford or Baldelli? Both are in their 25 year old season this year.

Crawford is signed for 07:$4M, 08:$5.25M, 09:$8.25M club option ($2.5M buyout), 10:$10M club option ($1.25M buyout).
Baldelli is signed for 07:$0.75M, 08:$2.25M, 09:$6M club option ($4M buyout), 10:$8M club option, 11:$9M club option ($2M buyout - 2010 & 2011 options must be exercised together).

You're Terry Ryan: What would you trade to get Baldelli? What about Crawford? All things the same, would you rather trade for Baldelli or Crawford? If you got Baldelli, would you trade Hunter this year? If you got Crawford, would you trade Hunter and ask Crawford to play center for a couple of months?

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The only thing that is likely...

...is if two teams seem to be natural trading partners, it is almost definite there will not be a deal between them. I really think that Mr. Ryan still hasn't decided whether or not he will take a run at extending Torii (in my last conversation with another Senior Exec, he was not speaking as if it was a foregone conclusion that Hunter would be gone). He also probably would want to wait towards the end of spring training to see how Jason Kubel is doing. If he is healthy and swinging the bat like we all know he can...well, there is our left fielder for awhile. The other player he will want to see is Denard Span. I am hopeful that he takes that step this year we all have been waiting for. Mr. Ryan will know a lot more in a month.

I like both players, thus wouldn't have much of a preference other than I don't think he is going to add the type of dollars in Crawford's contract until he knows whether he can extend Santana and Morneau...also, may want to know what is going to happen with the stadium. As usual, it isn't easy sitting in Mr. Ryan's chair.

by roger on Feb 20, 2007 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli

Baldelli would be pretty cool to get. He isn't that cheep, but with all the option years, especailly the last two with teh cheep buyout, you could let him go one he got his expensive time in. He's got pop in his bat, but not a ton of patience, but he's probably got better power than Hunter, though he doesn't play nearly the defense. Through 09 he's a huge Bargain and maybe even after that. If the Rays would trade him, and he plays good enough center field (what about that? Doesn't he DH a lot?), it would be worth looking into, What would the trade require? Baker and Swarzak? Smit and Perkins? Rincon and Slowey?

He'd be a good player to get IF he plays decent D in center.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 20, 2007 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Left field

I don't think we can make the assumption that Kubel can't do the job in left field. In fact, i would be surprised if he can't. He was a good fielder before the knee problem and he's 100% for the first time since October of 2004, when he put up arguably the best year for a Twins minor league position player since Kent Hrbek. The only reason why White is penciled in there is that Kubel needs to show he can play left again and White needs to show he can DH before they swap the two out. This will happen gradually this year, but I would be surprised if Kubel is not the everyday left fielder and White is not the everyday DH by the end of the year. That said, the Twins do need a center fielder and a third baseman for the future and the minor league candidates appear more than a year away at this time. Plus, as you showed, the Twins will have some surplus pitching by the trading deadline. So it makes sense that the Twins would go after a center fielder and a third baseman this year, unless the prospects take a larger step forward than expected. I'm not sure Tampa is the best trading partner, in part because a lot of their prospects have marginal reputations. My preferred trading partners is the Dodgers and the Reds. Imagine this line-up in 2008: 1. Alexi Casilla (2b) 2. James Loney (CF) 3. Joe Mauer (C) 4. Michael Cuddyer (RF) 5. Justin Morneau (1B) 6. Rondell White (DH) 7. Jayson Kubel (LF) 8. Edwin Encarnacion (3B) 9. Jayson Bartlett (SS) Let's enjoy the 2007 Twins while we can. But as long as we're dreaming....

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2007 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Normally I wouldn't...

But cmath, are you seriously under the impression that "Jason" is spelled with a "y" in the middle?

Also, that would be a lineup to die for. I so wish we could get Encarnacion... he'd complete probably the best young infield in baseball.

by ravenfly on Feb 20, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's actually a common alternative spelling

And a bad habit on my part. My nephew is named Jayson, and I just got used to spelling it that way. Two ballplayers named Jayson right now are Jayson Deroucher and Jayson Werth. But yes, I would love that line-up.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2007 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah

Fair enough. I do the same thing with Joanna/Joanne.

by ravenfly on Feb 21, 2007 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli

I personally would only look at the Jays for Baldelli, and only after this season. They would want to deal him if their guys were working out and we'd have extra prospects if a couple fo our guys stepped up big like expect and we only have a couple more spots to fill. For the Rays, it would save money and fill a need, and for us it would be a move up from prospect to proven commodity and filling a need. A pretty fair deal all around.

But that's a little ways off.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 20, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CMath...

One quibble. I think you mean Matt Kemp for CF. No way can Loney play CF. He's a stud 1b defensively and the Dodgers should use him as such, but he's not a CF. Kemp, on the other hand, is.

I think the Reds make a lot of sense (we've discussed this Encarnacion angle before) but I'm not sure the Dodgers make a good partner. They have a lot of excess pitching themselves these days. In fact, by midseason, we could be the two most pitching-rich clubs as far as capable arms to deal.

Overall I really like the though process though. There is absolutely no reason not to go out and get a stopgap 3b upgrade (I believe Valencia/Winfree/Robbins should be able to provide a longterm answer as early as 2009) and CF (I believe Benson will be ready around 2010) with excess pitching.

by djskilbr on Feb 21, 2007 3:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

I meant Kemp. Don't know why I wrote Loney, except he was on my mind from the Sickels site. Sorry. I really don't want to speculate right now. But if the rumoredd Kemp for Beltre trade goes through, the Dodgers might be looking for a second baseman, and might want to reunite the Marlins old top of the order... OK, back to getting excited about this team.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kemp?

Do you think we'd be able to get him? I don't think so. Why would the Dodger trade him? He's yong, cheep, and their starter in center...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blocked

Two things: He has a lot of people ahead of him and Coletti does not like breaking in youth.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2007 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

that's dead-on. I live out here in LA and I can tell you this team would be MUCH better if they didn't sign Luis Gonzalez or re-sign Nomar. Loney and Kemp are both studs. So is Laroche.

by djskilbr on Feb 21, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahead

Who's ahead of Kemp? He was starting last year...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nevermind

Nevermind, I forgot the Dodgers were the fool who signed Pierre.

Yeah, let's take them to town.

But how would he feel about young pitching, because if he doesn't like youth, well that's all we have to offer.

Anyways, saw Kemp last year with the dodgers in town, and he impressed me overall.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We have guys blocking the youth

Suppose Silva, Ortiz or Ponson bounce back, and Casilla demonstrates that he's clearly better than Castillo, and .... There are other vets who could be replaced by younger, better guys down the road. They have to prove their worth first, but I could see something around the trading deadline if Span continues on his current slow development path.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cassilla

I'm not sure how to comment on the first part of that, but for Span, I don't think the issue is his slow development curve, it's that he isn't very good. I don't expect him to ever be a very good player. Out of him, I see Jason Tyner at best.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span has tools

He's perhaps the fastest player in the game. And he can hit the ball with authority when he makes contact. He's just not a very good ball player yet. He has trouble making contact. He has trouble reading pitchers' moves. He has trouble reading the ball off the bat. In short, he struggles with baseball instincts. He might never learn, but if he does learn, his tools have been compared to Kenny Lofton, who is well above Jason Tyner.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2007 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

span

The problem is he hasn't learned, even at all to this point. he's just gotten worse as he's gone up.

"He's perhaps the fastest player in the game."

But what good does that do when you're so bad at taking routes to balls in the outfield and getting a first step that you are still a sub-par defender and you are so poor at judging pitchers that you can't steal bases well?

"And he can hit the ball with authority when he makes contact"

Key, when he makes contact. Also., I'd say that's pretty untrue since he rally has about no power. Apparently, a soft liner to center for a single is authority now.

"He has trouble making contact."

That's a problem when you're a low power sped guy.

"He has trouble reading pitchers' moves."

Aka, he has awful plate discipline. Which will further limit his power and contact ability, at an increasing rate as he nears the majors.

So let's recap, he's fast, but can't take advantage of it in defense or stealing bases. He doesn't have power. He doesn't draw many walks at all, and he isn't good at putting bat on ball, meaning he further limits his ability by not giving himself enough chances to run hits out. Now he doesn't get on base enough to take advantage of the one speed advantage he has left by just running fast when other people get hits. He hasn't improved any of this really at all in the last couple years of training he's had.

"his tools have been compared to Kenny Lofton, who is well above Jason Tyner."

Tools, tools, tools. Lofton has been a good player because he has those tools, but is a good, patient hitter who makes good contact and draws walks, getting on base a lot. He reads pitchers well and can steal bases very well. He's a smart outfielder who take advantage of his speed to be a good fielder (albeit a weak arm). Kenny Lofton is everything Span is not. Kenny Lofton is the player Span dreams about being when I wish I were Tiger Woods because I too own a nice set of golf clubs.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you

I'm not high on Span. I really don't think you can learn baseball instincts. Reading the ball off the bat is a God-given skill. Making contact is a God-given skill. Reading pitchers is a God-given skill. I've seen a lot of guys like Span who never learned these things (Jarvis Brown). So it's a long shot at this point. But the Twins brass does not want to give up on a former first-round pick just yet, in case, by some miracle, he wakes up one day and figures this stuff out. Because if he does, he has major league tools. I think they'll get someone else to replace Torii in any event.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2007 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

Ok, it sounded like you were still on his side.

At 23, he has no improvement trend, but he's worth keeping in AA for a year or two more to see if he can improve somehow, especially as long as no other player comes through.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There is a difference...

...betwen Tyner and Span, even though Span is very likely to become Tyner. Tyner doesn't have the potential to be anything more than he is right now. Span, if he can improve his baseball skills, can be more than Tyner is. I think it is quite unlikely that such a transition will occur, but like you say it's not like it hurts the Twins to see if it happens in the next couple of years.

It does hurt if they are expecting him to improve, which they shouldn't.

by ubelmann on Feb 22, 2007 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Ok, Tools wise, yeah, probably. But I don't see Span ever improving those skills because he totally hasn't yet. Maybe we'll be lucky and find out he was rushed a bit, but he hasn't improved his skills at all. I'm sure at one point there was a chance Tyner would improve his plate discipline, but never did.

I just don't see much out of him. Would I like to be wrong and have Span do really well in AA and AAA this year? Hell yeah. But not gonna' happen probably.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2007 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have spoken...

...to a Senior Twins Exec several times about Span, and they believe he is making good progress at what he needs to improve on and consider him the leading candidate to replace Torii. I have seen Span play a few times and have seen his remarkable speed. The person I spoke to has likely seen him play 75-100 times, I will yield to his observations.

by roger on Feb 22, 2007 7:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you read Gardy's comments today?

He thinks Span is nearly ready for the majors now, and "if something happened with Torii, we wouldn't have any problems bringing him up and seeing what he can do." It just shows the difference between the general perception in the blogshpere and what the Twins think of him.

I think you're being overly critical of some of his game Adam. He might not get Torii Hunter type jumps and probably never will, but he has closing speed to make up most of the difference. And his contact numbers have improved slowly but steadily while he's ascended a level a year since signing late out of high school. He's also put on about 30 pounds of muscle the last two years and can slash the ball and pull it with some authority. He's not just a slap hitter. Not all of this shows up in the numbers.

You say he hasn't improved at all and I think that understates his improvement. He's improved some. Not as much as we would expect from a first-round pick. And he hasn't improved enough to make him much above replacement level. But he could put it all together this year and be ready in 2008. Stranger things have happened.

I'm not optimistic because his development has been slow. But that is not unusual for toolsey athletes who didn't play enough ball in their youths. And it's not uncommon for these types to be late bloomers. Tyner, for example, has improved in his late twenties. He's still a bit above replacement level at best. Span has a chance to be better than that.

If the Twins get a third baseman with more power, they could probably survive 2008 with a speedy slap hitter in the number 9 spot in the order. That leaves a three-way competition between Ford, Tyner, and Span as their fall-back in case they can't get a better alternative through trades. It would not be my choice, but it's not the end of the world either, particularly with the pitching that the Twins will have next year.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 22, 2007 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So

So were' saying if he does real well this year he'll be replacement level by next year. Yeah. Great. I'm glad the organization is locked into this guy.

Why did Gardenhrie and some others get so enamored with this guy when the screwed around with Bartlett, Cuddyer, and all the young pitchers for so long?

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2007 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look

I don't see what supposed to make me optomistic about this guy, much less think he's anywhere near the majors. his sub-.700 AA OPS doesn't do it for me. Neither does his 2-1 K/BB ratio> What is supposed to make me believe he hits with authority? Is it his .350 slugging with a .063 isolated slugging, or the fact that he hits ground balls over twice as often as line drives, or fly balls combined? Apparently, his speed didn't keep him from grounding into double plays that much as he hit into 11 last year, a number that would put him right with Michael Cuddyer and Rondell White. I though speed guys weren't supposed to have that problem? That number will skyrocket once he hits the majors with the superior fielders turning two much faster, with as often as he puts it on the ground.

Maybe his 24 extra base hits are supposed to say hitting with authority. That's 1 less extra base hit than White had last year in 250 less plate appearances, even with his horrible first half. That's only two more than Bartlett had in 250 less plate appearances. That's less than even slap-hitting Punto had, who got 29 in 150 fewer plate appearances. Many of span's extra bases were largely caused by his speed too.

I don't know what baseball manual you're reading, but a sharp grounder up the middle or a little line drive in front of the left fielder for a single isn't hitting with authority.

With only 24 steals (in 35 attempts for an unproductive 68%), this guy is already the poor man's Juan Pierre, and he's only in AA. Maybe in a couple years he'll do enough to be passable, but he's nowhere near the majors. At span's age, Pierre was putting up an OPS 100 point higher with 46 steals in his second year in the majors. If were really lucky, Span will put up numbers like that in AA at age 24.

PS: Tyner had a higher OBP and SLG in the MLB last year than Span did in AA.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2007 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, the numbers speak for themselves

And they are disappointing. So why are the Twins so high on him? That's a good question. I have not spoken with them. I've just read what they say, and it's usually positive. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here and say they think highly of him for a reason that goes beyond the numbers. Unfortunately, in this forum, that's tough to take because we only have numbers to deal with. I don't have any answers, but they must see something to justify their optimism. Yes, they've been wrong before, but rarely on the side of a prospect. As you point out, it typically goes the other way and they side with a washed-up veteran over a prospect. I'm as puzzled as you are here. I might just be more optimistic.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Feb 22, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guzman, Rivas...

...are both guys that never improved like the Twins expected. With Guzy, injury troubles certainly didn't help, but Rivas never showed much of anything performance-wise and they stuck with him 'til the bitter end.

It's not really a problem to be high on Span right now based solely on tools, since he still has time for his performance to catch up with his tools before he gets to the majors (it's not like he's taking playing time from an obviously more deserving prospect), but treating him like a sure thing seems a bit foolhardy at this point.

by ubelmann on Feb 22, 2007 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

torii

Hunter is another comp you need to consider. He didn't hit that great in the minors and didn't establish himeself until he was 25. Also how old was Lofton when he became established? All the Twins are saying is that Span has potential. I'll wait for a while before I pass judgement on him.

by doofus04 on Feb 23, 2007 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a significant difference...

...between how much power Hunter hit for in the minors and how much power Span has hit for in the minors. Span's ISO is .058. Hunter's ISO was .147. This is important because Hunter's only above average offensive skill is his power.

Span's only above average asset right now is his OBP. However, guys who hit for no power whatsoever almost always lose a bunch of walks when they advance to the majors because pitchers aren't worried about what happens if the hitter makes contact.

Punto and Tyner are much better comparables for Span--they hit for an okay average in the minors, took a lot of walks, and hit for no power. As major leaguers, their walks have gone way down and they've become below average hitters.

Basically, Hunter was the sort of player that improves with age. Span, not so much. That could change, but the odds just aren't that good that he'll improve. (And this isn't just "stat-heads" who hold this opinion. Span doesn't even crack the Twins' Top 10 prospects as ranked by Baseball America. He's a long shot.)

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lofton

At age 24, Lofton Debuted in the majors in a small cup of coffee. The next season, still 24 for part of it, turning 25 mid-season he was already a full time player. Lofton already has his baseballs smarts at that age though, turning in an above average isolated plate discipline and walking more than he struck out. He also already had his baserunning smarts, stealing 66 bases while only being caught 12 times for a remarkable 85% success rate. In fact, Lofton's entire career he has walked nearly as many or more times than he has struck out, even in times when he had down years like 2001. On remarkable thing you see when looking at Lofton though is he was remarkably consistent, hitting over .300 many times and currently boasting a .299 career average.

Lofton's career is defined by speed and immense baseball smarts. By Span's age, Lofton was already a shrewed base runner and patient hitter busting into the major leagues. Span meanwhile is an impatient AA player who doesn't read pitchers well enough to steal well.

I don't think the comparisons to Lofton are valid at all. The ONLY reason he's being compared to Lofton is they're both fast. Lofton is everything Span is not.

A more comparable player is Juan Pierre. Span is probably th epoor mans Pierre since Pierre has managed better batting averages and a little better ability to steal bases. But Pierre still ends up being marginal at defense, and runs himself into outs enough that he loses a lot of his speed advantage. When coupled with lukewarm ability to get on base, he is one of the most overpayed and marginal players in baseball. And he's probably Span's ceiling.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 23, 2007 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re-tooling

If you look at 2008, and the possibility of having Span and casilla both in the line up (heaven forbid, two rookies...someone better get some big-league playing time in '07)...the Twins have speed. But they have to find power to repalce the loss of Hunter's (fifth or sixth in the order) bat...and that could still be Kubel, and whomever they find to fulfill the left field/designated hitter spot.

Of course, a bit mroe pop from third base would be fine, too.

by twintown on Feb 24, 2007 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bartlett

Don't forget about Bartlett's speed too. He might not be as quick as Span or Casilla, but he's still pretty damn fast. He has more pop too.

Casilla and Bartlett up the middle will be a hell of a speed combo at the top of the batting order and one quick duo up the middle.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 25, 2007 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But I should...

...probably stop talking positively about Span. The last time I did that on another website I got torn to shreds for about the next 7-8 hours.

by roger on Feb 22, 2007 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Knowing that...

...the Twins are high on Span is interesting information, and it gives me somewhat more hope, but the Twins thought it was a good idea to stick with Luis Rivas for years even though he never really showed much performance-wise.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Span could be a reasonable starting CF option. I just think that whoever thinks that needs to acknowledge that there's certainly a good-sized gap between what Span is now and a valuable starting CF. (You seem to be acknowledging this, as far as I can tell.) Any time there is a gap like that, there's a reasonably large chance that the player never closes the gap, so I feel like the Twins shouldn't be too confident about Span's future is all.

by ubelmann on Feb 22, 2007 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am very much of...

...the opinion that there are a lot of things that he needs to improve. I have only seen him a couple times and he surprised me in that he was bigger than I anticipated. I saw him live in a game last spring where he went from 1st to home as fast as I could imagine anyone. I got beat up on another site when I merely wrote that my formula had him as the 4th best position player in the system last year...which to be honest, surprised me. Lets hope this is the year he puts it all together. With what they are saying he must look good, assuming he is there.

by roger on Feb 22, 2007 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CMath...

I just went and read them now. Am a bit surprised but I knew they believe he has made good progress. There are a couple of things that many miss when looking at his numbers. First, he led the Eastern League in both hits and at bats. The high at bat total would likely justify hitting into 11 double plays...which doesn't seem like a lot for someone with well over 500 at bats. For someone who missed a lot of playing time his first two years with injuries and didn't play at all in the year he signed, he hasn't played much and I remain hopeful that this is his breakout year. The Twins apparently feel likewise.

by roger on Feb 22, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DP

The point he is he hit into as many DP's as slower guys did in the majors with the same number of at bats and his speed should theoretically be able to eliminate a lot of those. He must have hit into oodles of fielders choices.

But I sincerely hope I'm wrong and your optimism is well founded and he DOES break out this year.

But I'd still rather have Baldelli. The rays fans on another site i attend actually like their side fo the deal as well, but you know how these things are where we select random guys in the league and expect something to happen...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya...

I could see it. I'm just not sure what the Dodgers would want. The only real piece for them might be a more established stud reliever. Rincon anyone? I'd do Rincon and a pitching prospect, plus Span as a filler in a heartbeat if we could get Kemp. I'd love our overall team for the future with that too. And we'd actually be sitting fairly pretty money-wise to sign a stopgap DH or 3b for 2008-09 until hopefully we have more than enough candidates for those positions. Heck, White actually might be back in 2008 with a vesting option. And it's not like we're going to have any issues pitching-wise in 2008-2010 at least. How about something like this for a team?:

Offense
Casilla-2b-$380K
Mauer-C-$6.25 million
Cuddyer-RF-$5 million (estimate)
Morneau-1b-$6.5 million (estimate)
Kemp-CF-$380K
Kubel-LF-$400K
White-DH-$3 million (estimate with vesting)
Lowell?-3b-$4 million (not many good 3b available in 2008)
Bartlett-$400K
Bench: Punto ($2.4 million), Redmond ($1 million), 3 others for total of $4 million
Total offense: $33,710,000

Pitching:
Santana-$20 million
Garza-$390K
Liriano-$400K
Perkins/Bonser/Slowey/Baker-$390K
Perkins/Bonser/Slowey/Baker-$390K
Nathan-$8 million (estimate)
Crain-$1.2 million (estimate)
Neshek-$390K
3 others at total of $3 million
Total pitching: $34,160,000

Total payroll: $67,870,000

You can play with the numbers/options a bit more but bottom line is that if Torii is gone in 2008 and we got somebody young and cheap like Kemp, we'd have a LOT of money to play with, even with reasonable longterm deals for ALL of Santana/Nathan/Morneau/Cuddyer/Mauer. Without Lowell or whoever at 3b, you have a payroll of $63,870,000 by the above. Considering payroll this year is going to be roughly $70 million, we could easily have $10 million to play with without any glaring areas of need in a year built for a championship run. The thought of this gets me pumped!

by djskilbr on Feb 22, 2007 3:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd definitely consider a deal

Trading for Baldelli right now might be the best option, but it would also probably cause some problems, with Hunter's replacement just waiting around.

At any rate, if either of those guys were available for a deal centering on, say, Crain and Slowey, I would listen.

by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2007 9:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

We'd

That's why we'd wait till the end of the season...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 20, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli

The White Sox thought they had Baldelli this winter and it never happened. People have been talking about the DRays moving their excess "talent" for many moons, buy the Rays seem relectant to deal. Maybe the fragile nature of the franshise makes them conservative. Are they playing some games in Orlando this summer to try to expand the "fan" base?

by wcooley on Feb 21, 2007 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's why

That's why we'd wait till the end of the year. That was, the D-Rays could see if their prospects panned out or not. If they did (and there are a lot of them, and they're all pretty good) then they'd have some expendable guys...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crawford...Haha

Welcome to Studville - Population: Carl Crawford. Do you have any idea what it would take to get this guy? I'd bet a pretty penny the D-Rays wouldn't trade Crawford for anything short of Garza/Slowey + Baker/Swarzak + bullpen help. The guy is a lock to steal 50 bags a year, hit over .300 with 15-20 jacks and play an above average left field. The amazing thing is: he's signed through 2010 and will make only 10 million in his final year (Keep in mind we're gonna pay Hunter 12M for .270/25HR/15-20SB) For a player of that caliber... that contract is an absolute steal. Baldelli would be nice, but keep in mind he's had some issues staying healthy, which should greatly reduce what were willing to give up (at least for now, another healthy season from him might change things).

by SDTwinsFan on Feb 20, 2007 10:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Those are certainly...

...good reasons to like Crawford. One reason I wouldn't give up a whole lot to get him is that players like that are kind of risky. If he gets any sort of injury to his legs, then it probably costs him some singles, his defense is much less of an asset, and he doesn't have walks or power to offset those losses. It's not something I would worry that much about if I was signing Crawford to his current contract, but I'd worry about it some if I had to trade a bunch of goodies for him.

Crawford is a very valuable asset for the D-Rays, but I just wouldn't give away a ton of stuff for a corner outfielder who doesn't walk much and doesn't hit for power. I'd trade a lot for him, just not as much as it would take.

by ubelmann on Feb 20, 2007 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I treat him as more than that...

I think Crawford can more than capably play CF if given the chance.
I think his power is still developing and he can be a 25 HR guy, which is not bad at all for a CF.

If given the choice, I'd MUCH prefer Crawford over Baldelli, whom I'm not really a big fan of, injury-risk included.

But I think we have to look at the cost. Crawford would probably cost us a Garza and something at this stage. Supposedly the Angel rumor was Ervin Santana plus another big prospect.

Baldelli would cost us something close to that in all likelihood as the Marlins rumor was Scott Olsen, IF these are thought to be true.

I like the thought of trading with the DRays as our needs mesh somewhat though.

by djskilbr on Feb 21, 2007 3:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli

Baldelli doesn't really have an injury history beyond his ACL tear...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 20, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong

Baldelli spent time on the DL last year after elbow surgery and then again with hamstring problems. Played in a grand total of 91 games over the last two seasons.

by SDTwinsFan on Feb 21, 2007 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Played

91 games last year and 0 two seasons ago, once again, because of the ACL injury. He cam back from that injury pretty well in mid-June and played pretty much every game from there on out. Unless he starts going down again this year, i see no reason to belive he's injury prone, especially since he didn't have a history before that.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 21, 2007 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs