2006 Predictions In Review

Was I really THAT optimistic about Tony Batista?  Really?

On February 24, 2006, I made my offensive predictions for the Twins upcoming season.  Let's see how bad I really was...

Joe Mauer

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  139 535 170 34 17  96 10 77 64 .318 .403 .488
Real Life   140 521 181 36 13  84  8 79 54 .347 .429 .507

Joe Mauer obviously out-performed my prediction, which is pretty impressive considering my projection was an .891 OPS.  He collected more hits in fewer at-bats, and even struck out 10 fewer times.  My homer and RBI forecasts were a bit high, but considering his season I'll definitely take Joe's real 2006 over my prediction anyday.

Justin Morneau

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB  SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  151 523 139 28 31 104  0 55 107 .266 .336 .505
Real Life   157 592 190 37 34 130  3 53  93 .321 .375 .559

After Morneau's 2005, I thought my predictions for his '06 weren't too optimistic or pessimistic.  The power was there, but so were the strikeouts.  Obviously, Justin destroyed my predictions, blowing my "realistic" OPS of .841 outta the friggin' water.  70 more at-bats, FIFTY more hits, 9 additional doubles and 14 fewer strikeouts.  Justin's '06 was absolutely awesome.

Luis Castillo

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  148 542 166 21  5  36 27 67 58 .306 .383 .398
Real Life   142 584 173 22  3  49 25 56 58 .296 .358 .370

Aside from fewer walks in more at-bats, this forecast wasn't too far off.  Obviously I was hoping for a significantly higher OBP, but in the grand scheme of things Castillo had a pretty good season.  I would definitely be happy with a repeat performance.

Nick Punto

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction   70 168  43  9  3  11  9 14 42 .256 .313 .363
Real Life   135 459 133 21  1  45 17 47 68 .290 .352 .373

Um...well, whatever!  He TOTALLY fell short of my home run expectations...

Jason Bartlett

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  137 438 122 21  4  32 11 40 65 .279 .339 .368
Real Life    99 333 103 18  2  32 10 22 46 .309 .367 .393

If Jason actually had played 137 games, he would have destroyed my forecast.  Bartlett played, in just 99 games, about as well as he could have, and he was SO MUCH FUN TO WATCH.  His defense is better than I expected, and he showed a moxi at the dish I didn't think he'd have in the major leagues.  My bad, Jason.  You rock.

Shannon Stewart

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  127 424 116 22  8  42  4 31 54 .274 .323 .388
Real Life    44 174  51  5  2  21  3 14 19 .293 .347 .368

I'll go out on a limb and say that had Stewart been healthy enough to play, he might have had a pretty decent season.  Definitely not as good as he's had in years past, but it would have been one of those seasons you're glad to see after a guy's had a rough time of things.  As it was, it was just another painful experience for Shannon and the fans.  Au revoir, Shannon.

Torii Hunter

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB  SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  152 541 147 35 24  83 26 52 111 .272 .335 .477
Real Life   147 557 155 21 31  98 12 45 108 .278 .336 .490

I feel like that's a pretty decent prediction, although it's for the wrong reasons.  Torii's foot led to fewer doubles and fewer stolen bases, but he still was able to hit for more power.  His season in the field wasn't what we were used to seeing, but at the plate there's no denying it--Hunter had a good year.

Michael Cuddyer

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB  SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  114 384 106 17 14  45  4 31  72 .276 .330 .435
Real Life   150 557 158 41 24 109  6 62 130 .284 .362 .504

Considering Cuddyer's career up to last summer, I thought my prediction was a pretty fair shake.  Don't misunderstand me, I'm happy to be proven wrong!  Do it again, Cuddles!

Rondell White

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  143 522 146 31 18  85  1 48 91 .280 .344 .450
Real Life    99 337  83 17  7  38  1 11 54 .246 .276 .365

I was ON THE MONEY with my stolen base forecast!

Jason Kubel

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction   86 240  68 15  6  28  3 26 38 .283 .391 .429
Real Life    73 220  53  8  8  26  2 12 45 .241 .279 .386

I'm still positive on Kubel, I still think he can make a positive impact on our offense.  Hopefully he's a bit more disciplined than this last year, because he struck out a lot more and walked a lot less than I thought he would.

Lew Ford

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  102 337  94 26  7  38 14 38 51 .279 .352 .430
Real Life   104 234  53  6  4  18  9 16 43 .226 .287 .312

I was hoping to see Lew bounce back from a rough 2005 at the plate.  Looks like I was a little off.  He struggled again last summer, and I love Lew...so I'm worried.  C'mon, LEEEWWW!

Tony Batista

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction  120 357  93 19 21  47  6 18 63 .261 .296 .485
Real Life    50 178  42 12  5  21  0 15 27 .236 .303 .388

Rip away.  Honestly, I was just hoping for the best...

Luis Rodriguez

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction   66 152  40 11  1   8  7 13 30 .263 .321 .355
Real Life    59 115  27  4  2   6  0 14 16 .235 .315 .322

L-Rod rotted on the bench quite often, but there's not much else you can do when you need to win EVERY GAME to win the division crown.  It was tough for any of the infield depth to see much time.

Mike Redmond

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction   54 124  36  6  2  13  0 11 19 .290 .348 .387
Real Life    47 179  61 13  0  23  0  4 18 .341 .365 .413

I thought I was being fair in my predictions for NBP, but he blew me out of the water as well.  He didn't walk much, but he had a knack last summer for hittin' it where they ain't.  If he performs in '07 like my prediction for '06, I'll be pleased.

Juan Castro

              G  AB   H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO  Avg  Obp  Slg
Prediction   51 112  26 11  6  12  0  8 24 .232 .283 .384
Real Life    50 156  36  5  1  14  1  6 23 .231 .258 .308

It's pretty sad when my prediction, which was pretty horrific to begin with, gets under shot by a mile.  I anticipated a .667 OPS, but somehow wasn't shocked by one 100 points lower.  Hey...I might have been overly optimistic on Fatista, but I was...well, I was also optimistic about Castro.  Technically.  Dammit.

The rest aren't worth comparing, unless you choose to do so yourself.  Generally (although not across the board) it seems I under-estimated our offense when it comes to our starters, and over-estimated our bench.  This season, I'll wait until nearer the end of March for my forecasts...the end of February was just too soon.

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