Community Projection - Pat Neshek

by ubelmann on Mar 28, 2007 1:41 AM EDT in News Comment 9 comments

ROOGY. You don't see that term thrown around a whole lot, but that's very well what we're looking at here. It almost seems like we should have separate projections for Neshek against lefties and righties, but that's probably more detail than we want to get into. Last year Joe Nathan had 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Pat Neshek had 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Sounds like the local boy made good. But can he keep it up?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Johan Santana
Carlos Silva
Ramon Ortiz
Boof Bonser
Sidney Ponson
Joe Nathan
Juan Rincon]

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I'll say...

65 IP, 2.50 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9

And lots of mid-inning pitching changes.

by ubelmann on Mar 28, 2007 1:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can't really argue with that...

at all ubelmann. That's almost exactly what I have in store for him as well.

by djskilbr on Mar 28, 2007 2:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

More HRs

60 IP, 2.90 ERA, 12 K/9, 2 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 28, 2007 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

More innings

Neshek is one of the only pitchers in the bullpen that Gardy is willing to let pitch more than one inning at a time on a regular basis. This will especially be the case early in the year due to the state of the rotation, and since more than one inning at a time means he doesn't get removed when the lefty comes to the plate I think that will hurt his ERA a little this year.

3.00 ERA
12.5 K/9
1.6 BB/9
1.4 HR/9

by JP on Mar 28, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oops

I forgot the IP

85 IP

by JP on Mar 28, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pat will be much like...

...last year:

80.0 IP, 2.5 ERA, 6-3 record, 115 K, 15 BB, 0.90 WHIP

Pat provides an option that the Twins haven't had in the past. A closer much like the closers of 30-40 years ago. Not someone who pitches the 9th inning, rather someone that can come on in an earlier inning with 1 out and a couple guys in scoring position and give the team a realistic chance of getting out of the inning with no runs...rather than all of them scoring when we used to bring J.C. in

by roger on Mar 28, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

His changeup against lefties will offset the league starting to figure him out and he'll do it again.

80 IP, 2.40 ERA, 12 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 (that's a crazy high K/BB), 1.4 HR/9 (his Achilles heal)

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 28, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope you're right

I suspect that he will need to make adjustments like this as he goes along. The league will figure out the change-up and he'll have a down period as he develops a cutter or something else. His success is more about fooling people than pitching to contact. And there will be times when he's not fooling people. But he's smart enough and resourceful enough to make those adjustments.

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 28, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs