Community Projection - Dennys Reyes

by ubelmann on Mar 30, 2007 1:41 AM EDT Comment 21 comments

Reyes was money last year. Lots of strikeouts, lots of ground balls, not many walks. His track record? Not that strong.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Johan Santana
Carlos Silva
Ramon Ortiz
Boof Bonser
Sidney Ponson
Joe Nathan
Juan Rincon
Pat Neshek
Jesse Crain]

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I'll say...

65 IP, 2.50 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.42 HR/9

And lots of dead worms.

by ubelmann on Mar 30, 2007 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

I'll go 2.80 ERA, 6 K/9, 3 BB/9, 2 HR/9, and around 75 IP. I think he'll have a wild bout or two, but otherwise be fairly solid. Just not nearly as solid as his ridiculous 2006 year.

by djskilbr on Mar 30, 2007 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That was a close call...

...you almost beat me to the first comment. :)

by ubelmann on Mar 30, 2007 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha...

I thought I did ubelmann. Guess not.

by djskilbr on Mar 30, 2007 2:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eat at Dennys

Fewer innings pitched than appearances. So I'll go with:

90 appearances, 80 IP, 1.35 ERA, 8 k/9, 3.2 BB/9, .32 HR/9 about 15 wild pitches, and 900 new baseballs on sliders in the dirt.

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 30, 2007 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't you think...

that number of new baseballs is a little low, Cmath? :)

On a completely other note, just wanted to ask you your take CMath; I like Bonser, but you seem to be higher on him than pretty much anyone I know, so just curious your thoughts; do you see him in the longterm rotation in 2008 and beyond? Or do you see him being outed (with Santana/Liriano/Garza the obvious top 3) for one of Perkins/Slowey/Swarzak/Sosa/Pino, etc?

Was just wondering your take on that.

by djskilbr on Mar 30, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bonser

Bonser has good control of four major-league pitches (curveball, slider, change and fastball)-- five if you count the two types of fastballs he throws. With good catchers calling the pitches, he can be effective mixing it up and hitting his spots.

I think his minor league numbers are a bit deceptive because he came from the background of a power pitcher. He used to throw 96 miles an hour as a maximum-effort pitcher and that just doesn't work. Gradually he learned that he could get people out consistently by taking a little off and spotting the ball. As he did, his numbers improved but his aggregate numbers never recovered much. (He still has that 96, BTW, when he wants it. He only throws it maybe once a game.)

If you look at a still shot of Bonser next to the same shot of Garza throwing the fastball, you see Bonser looks relaxed and loose, he even has a little grin on his face. Garza looks like an Orc or something--every sinew in is face and neck is stretched to the max. Bonser was like Garza two years ago. Maybe he didn't have as much movement on his fastball, but everything was hard. Now he just hits his spots and mixes it up and doesn't worry about throwing it 96.

He really put it all together last year. Now I think he has confidence that he can always get out of jams by throwing the right pitch in the right location. He just trusts his catcher and does his job. And nothing really bothers him. He'll get nicked here and there, but he won't pull a Kyle Lohse and blow up when he gets into trouble. That's why I'm higher on him than other folks.

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 30, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand that CMath...

and I don't disagree. I was just wondering if you personally see him in the rotation longterm, or if the talent of 2 of Perkins/Slowey/Swarzak/Sosa/Pino/Manship, etc. will supplant him.

That's all.

by djskilbr on Mar 30, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do

Do you see that as a problem for Garza?

I see Bonser around for awhile at least. I think he'll continue pitching efectively, at least for awhile. With all those young guys, you can't be sure which ones will totally come through. There is a decent chance Bonser gets traded though, but that's the same with a lot of our pitchers. He's a lot like Milton, so maybe we'll pull a similar deal to the Milton one with him.

But I like him very much for now.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 30, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

I guess I just feel that I think at least 2 of those other guys (my picks would probably be Slowey/Sosa, maybe Manship depending on their plans) will have higher upsides than him. And if he does well for the next couple of years, as I expect, he could probably fetch something pretty darn good in a trade.

by djskilbr on Mar 30, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Long term

Yes, I see him long term as a number 3 starter. If I had to project the opening day 2010 rotation, it would look something like this:

Garza
Liriano
Bonser
Perkins
Slowey

I would love for the Twins to retain Santana, but I would not bet on it right now. In the absence of Santana, Bonser will provide a stabilizing influence for the kids. I think he's here to stay, even if he's not as flashy or hyped as the others.

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 30, 2007 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

thanks for the take CMath.

Personally I do see Santana here longterm (I think we'll get something done very soon, even), and I like Slowey more than Bonser (maybe Sosa too) so I'm not sure he fits in, as much as he could be a solid 3 or even TWO for most other teams. That's just a testament to how deep our staff can be soon.

But to each his own. I always appreciate another take on things. And for the most part I generally agree with you CMath.

by djskilbr on Mar 30, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Odds

I agree that Slowey and probably Sosa and Swarzak have higher upsides than Bonser. But I've seen enough guys come up who were really top prospects but never made that last adjustment to the big leagues. No matter how good you are in the minors, there are always adjustments to being successful at the majors. Not everyone makes it. Most do, but some don't. Here are a few so-called "can't miss" prospects who never made the adjustments:

David West
David McCarty
Pat Mahomes
Dave Stevens
Adam Johnson
Mike Restovich
JD Durbin

When a guy makes the adjustment and looks like he's capable of continuing to make adjustments, he's worth more than a prospect with better minor league numbers, IMO. The last step is the toughest one, and it's tripped up a lot of hot prospects over the years. There are no sure things.

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 31, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is the $64,000,000 question...

...and my number may not be to far off.

The Santana situation has to be settled sometime between now and next spring. Obviously, everyone believes an extension now would be cheaper. Really cheaper if Johann gets another Cy. But how good are these kids coming up? What will Liriano be like when/if he comes back? Some of these questions will get answered during the next 12 months. There is always the possibility that Ryan trades Santana during spring/summer of 2008 and goes with any number of these kids.

Now personally, I would like to see Johann stay in Minnesota his entire career.

by roger on Mar 31, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2010 Pitching

We still have Waldrop, Rainville, Millins, Swarzak, Sosa, Smit. Duensing.

Who knows where Morlan will end up -- starter or bullpen.

Asleton might be another Boof.

How much will economics play into who stays and who goes.

by twintown on Mar 30, 2007 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the analysis

Here goes counting the chickens before they hatch.

Is it realistic to expect all 3 of Garza, Perkins and Slowey to reach their potential?

Of the next crop, I presume it's too early to tell, yet is it realistic to think 1/3 will mature successfully?

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Mar 30, 2007 9:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No...

I'm not saying that. I do see Garza as a virtual lock at this point, so that means that you have 3 studs in the fold (Santana/Garza/Liriano), but a few of the others won't pan out. With so many though, I think we'll find at least 2 other pretty darn good ones to go along with Boof.

In fact, I think that's pretty conservative. We literally have about 10 guys with great potential to pan out in the next couple of years. Just off the top of my head:

Perkins
Slowey
Pino
Swarzak
Sosa
Manship
Morlan (I see him as our next closer eventually)
Rainville
Waldrop
Smit

by djskilbr on Mar 31, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

You can say half of those guys are as good of prospects as Boof was when he came through the Giant's system. Remember, he was a first-round draft pick out of high school by a team that typically drafts college talent. He had difficulty adjusting to AA and then to AAA, but he made a typical progression through the minors with good success along the way.

The guys who are lower than Boof are Pino, Morlan (because reliever), Rainville, and Waldrop.

Perkins, Slowey, Swarzak and Sosa are all better prospects at this point in their careers than Boof was. Manship is the wild card, but he will be in the top 10 of Twins prospects by seasons end. So I'll say he's a better prospect than Boof in advance.

TR always uses the three-to-one rule. For every AA top prospect who makes it, there's another two who don't. I'm not sure that's true, but I trust TR here. He's fond of research. If you have five prospects plus Boof and two spots to fill, you're well within that three-to-one rule.

So your theory that the Twins will have so much pitching they can afford to trade Boof before 2010 is probably valid. I just don't like to look that far ahead. There are lots of options. But lots of stuff can happen between now and the time Boof is trade bait.

I want to enjoy his time with the Twins while it lasts. I think he'll have an excellent year and could become a hero in the Twin Cities if he wins a few games in the postseason. And TR will always choose the guy who's proven it over the guy who hasn't.

Free Matt Garza.

by cmathewson on Mar 31, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I wholeheartedly...

agree CMath. It's definitely looking ahead. I just like doing that projecting stuff. Scouting/projecting young players is by far my favorite part of the game in fact.

by djskilbr on Mar 31, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs