Community Projection - Justin Morneau

by ubelmann on Mar 5, 2007 1:43 AM EST in News

So the Twins have this guy at first base now who doesn't flash quite as much leather as his predecessor, but I hear he has some value with his bat. What will it be this year--more power? A better average? Both? Neither? Maybe '06 was a fluke?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection, just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion/suggestions encouraged.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page. Your voice will be heard.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond]

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I'll say...

600 PA, .305/.365/.575, 40 HR, 2 SB, 2 CS

by ubelmann on Mar 5, 2007 1:48 AM EST reply actions

I think...

that's almost dead-on for power, but I think his average will be slightly better (.310?) and his OBP will be higher (.390?) as he gets some more walks this year. I expect the guys hitting behind him (Cuddyer, then later White/Kubel) to be a LOT better this year so I think he will get better pitches to hit as well.

by djskilbr on Mar 5, 2007 4:56 AM EST reply actions

Morneau

629 PA
.299/.361/.558
38 HR
1 SB
1 CS

by Diggity Dino on Mar 5, 2007 8:33 AM EST reply actions

what happened

at the end of last year with that huge home run drought? Does anyone know? That's the only worry for me. What if whatever was going on then keeps happening, and pitchers figure out how to avoid the long ball?

by by jiminy on Mar 5, 2007 9:48 AM EST reply actions

I thought

I thought that was due to Morneau getting pitched outside a lot more, and being willing to take those pitches to the opposite field rather than trying to pull everything. And he did get a ton of hits that way, so I'm not really complaining.

This is totally off-the-cuff "I vaguely remember this happening."

by ravenfly on Mar 5, 2007 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

That's pretty much it.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 5, 2007 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Morneau...

...was basically a Mauer clone in September. I thought I read a quote from Morneau sometime this offseason about trying to strengthen up a bit for this season, as he felt he was tiring a bit down the stretch.

by ubelmann on Mar 5, 2007 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

Mauerlike numbers

If they pitch him outside, and he takes it the other way, he may get Mauerlike numbers, but Mauer only hit 13 home runs.

In June and July he hit 18 home runs and slugged over .700. In August and September he hit 6 home runs and slugged under .500.

If I was an opposing manager, I would keep pitching him the same as he was pitched in August and September.

There's nothing wrong with his September numbers:
.348 .402 .487 .889
But that would project to about 11 home runs.

Looking at Morneau's numbers, I see a guy who hit 34 home runs, but with a huge downward trend in power after pitchers adjusted by pitching outside. So what's the solution?

Maybe pitchers will get tired of his insane OBP and challenge him inside a bit more, in which case you'd expect his average to drop a bit and his power to climb a bit -- compared to August and September. But how is he going to hit 40 home runs, or even 30, if people continue pitching him outside? And why wouldn't they?

by by jiminy on Mar 6, 2007 9:36 AM EST up reply actions

Well

Actually it would be 18 homer runs...

And please not ehe did crank two dingers in the playoffs, so his power didn't totally go away or anything.

He also claimed to be tired, so that may have played a factor.

Overall, i expect him to adjust, but given his hot streak last year I think expecting 40 is not a good projection because it isn't as likely as it is not.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 6, 2007 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Combination

Yes he dumped a lot of those outside pitches the other way rather than trying to pull them. But in June and July he was able to pull a lot of those pitches for home runs. He admits that he just wasn't 100 percent as far as core strength and leg strength. So he couldn't pull those pitches for anything but lazy fly balls late in the year. Recognizing this, he just went the other way with them.

He worked very hard on his core abdominal strength and leg strength over the winter so that he can put a charge into those pitches late in the year. It'll be interesting to see if it pays off.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 9, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

YEah

That's actually all good signs since he was able to objectively identify what he was and was not able to do instead of still trying to do things he couldn't, like another Twins player we know (who Justin has punched before). He then went out and fixed the problem.

Justin's definitely turned the corner. He's got the smarts we knew he could have along with the physical ability.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 10, 2007 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

Completely off topic but....

Completely off topic but I wanted to share with the board an email I sent to MLB regarding what I think is a very unfair deal btwn them and Direct TV. For those who are out of town Twins fans and might feel the same you can write MLB @ feeback@mlb.com

For those who don't sorry for wasting your time.

Regards,
Cal

To Whom it May Concern,

I am writing to you in regards to the deal that MLB is
pursuing with Direct TV. I am against this deal and
believe it is very unfair to individuals like me who
can not purchase Direct TV.

I have been a fan of baseball my whole life. I grew up
a 10 minutes walking distance from Dodger Stadium and
most of my fondest summer memories involve baseball.
When I went to college in the Minnesota I found a
second favorite team and now that I live in Northern
California I have used Extra Innings to keep track of
both ball clubs.

I want to support baseball, and to this point I have
regardless of what has been going on in the media
regarding steroids and the like. Every year I travel
to see different ballparks. I have a closet full of
MLB apparel and I purchase Extra Innings.

I know I am one fan and probably don't count for much
in terms of revenue. How can one fan compete with the
millions that Direct TV is offering but I will still
ask that you reconsider this offer.

I will not purchase MLBtv because it does not offer me
the ability to record games so I may view them after I
get home from work and have spent time with my family.
With MLBtv, I would be forced to watch games on a
computer in my office, away from my wife and kids,
when I could watch them in our living room together.
It has always been my hope that summers with baseball
on every night would help make my child a lover of
baseball like his father but I will not expect him to
sit hunch over my desk to watch a 2 hour game. I won't
do it either.

Suffice to say that if this deal between MLB and
Direct TV goes through you will lose a lifelong fan.
Oh sure I will try to follow my teams this year but
without watching their daily games I will find other
pursuits to fill my time. Like I said I'm just one fan
but I doubt I'm alone in feeling this way.

This deal is unfair, I can not, as someone who rents
purchase Direct TV and I don't understand why you
would make it harder, not easier for me to watch
baseball.

Thank you for your time.

by caluofmn on Mar 5, 2007 7:10 PM EST reply actions

Why don't you just...

...write a diary entry about this so it has its own location for discussion? It's a perfectly valid topic, even though it has nothing to do with Morneau, so you should go ahead and put it in a diary so it shows up on the right sidebar.

by ubelmann on Mar 5, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions