Community Projection - Nick Punto

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 3:33 AM EST in News

Lil' Nicky Punto had the pleasure of replacing Tony Batista last year. It's certainly easier to look good when you're being compared to a guy who shouldn't be in the league.

At any rate, thanks apparently to some suggestions by Rod Carew last spring, Punto took a big step forward with his batting average, but still didn't show any power and had only a slightly above average OBP. The most encouraging sign was probably his reduced strikeout rate, but his September (.252/.266/.294) was pretty disappointing and cast some doubt about his improvements.

So what's going to happen with Punto this year? More improvement in another year of his prime? A return to futility infielder Punto? Someone steps on his hand as he slides headfirst into first base?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo]

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Comments

I'll say...

500 PA, .280/.350/.380, 2 HR, 15 SB, 5 CS

I'll be pretty happy if he does that, actually. As long as he keeps fielding well, I won't be losing sleep over third base.

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 3:37 AM EST reply actions

Mostly agree

529 PA
.284/.344/.369
1 HR
19 SB, 6 CS.

I think he'll still be better than his career averages and have only a slight regression from last year.

Still strange to me to think that if Nick Punto goes down with an injury the Twins are in trouble (although Cirillo helps in that regard this year).

by Diggity Dino on Mar 7, 2007 8:25 AM EST reply actions

Given that Alexi Casilla...

...seems to be pretty studly, I kind of wonder if he wouldn't get a shot at 3B if Punto goes down. Cirillo's probably first in line, though.

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Casilla

Do you think they would try Casilla at 3b? I mean, I guess it worked for Punto, but I haven't heard discussion of that. While I am not theoretically opposed to Punto as 3B, I hope they don't think putting a Punto-type player there is a long-term recipe for success.

by Diggity Dino on Mar 7, 2007 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

More and more...

...I'm convinced that you can have a valuable third baseman in two ways: a great defender or a big slugger.

There aren't as many plays for 3B to make as for a SS or 2B, but it seems like the plays at 3B are pretty hard in general to make. So the difference in defense between a good 3B and an average 3B can still be pretty big.

Ideally, sure, you want someone like Scott Rolen who is a great defender and a great hitter, but realistically the Twins just don't have that guy in the organization right now. Trading some pitching to get that guy might be an option, but it's tough to count on the trade market to fix a specific need sometimes.

And Casilla would just be temporarily at 3B anyway. Castillo's probably going to leave (for his body's sake as much as anything) next year, and Castilla will take over at 2B.

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

I don't

I don't see that as very likely. We did bring in Cirillo for a reason...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 7, 2007 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Interestingly...

...I thought I heard a quote from Cirillo himself saying that it's tough for him to hold up as an everyday player. Even if Cirillo isn't around to be an everyday player if someone gets injured, being around to give people occasional days off and as a pinch hitter here and there is a useful role to the team. And it's possible that Casilla is just better than Cirillo at this point anyway. He could at least press the issue by playing very well in Rochester.

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

Cirillo can't play everyday for prolonged stretches. He could get by for a 15 day DL stint though, I'm sure. Maybe he'd tire some, but what otehr option do we have.

Casilla has no experience playing third. it's a totally different position. He has natural defensive ability, but he still needs work on some defensive consistency (apparently he rushes things).

At any rate, I don't see it likely he'll get time there anytime soon.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 7, 2007 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

L Rod

L Rod can platoon or team up with Cirillo to handle 3rd if Punto goes down. He's obviously not an ideal starter but he'd be the one most likely to fill in at this point.

by doofus04 on Mar 8, 2007 8:36 AM EST up reply actions

I'll say...

500 PA
.275/.340/.365

A little more regression, and always an injury risk. How come nobody has ever explained to him you only slide into first to avoid a tag! I really like the Cirillo signing for this reason as I believe he will be a valuable backup.

As long as he plays good D I'll be happy with this line.

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Mar 7, 2007 11:16 AM EST reply actions

Sinking numbers

Punto's declining numbers directly correlate with him hitting a home run against the White Sox. That home run seemed to convince him that he could effectively pull the ball. He had this idea in 2005 as well making for a weak perfomance with many weak fly ball outs. I'm pretty pessimistic about him this year as I see he's 1-14 so far. He's best when he's just trying to put the ball in play. And makes a ton of weak fly ball outs when trying to pull the ball.

I have even been tempted to write him a letter asking him to stop pulling the ball and diving into first base. And put the ball in play and run through first base as physics indicates that it's the quickest way to the bag.

415 PA (expecting an injury)
.259 AVG/ .305 OBP/ .350 SLG
4 HR
12 SB, 4 CS

by TheMattWilke on Mar 7, 2007 11:28 AM EST reply actions

I think we should...

...make that letter a petition.

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Not Sure

I'm hesitant to offer a projection because I can't get a really good feel on Punto. Punto is one of those players where projections, like PETCOA, are not very reliable because there is a very big range he could land on either side of. There's probably good chances he'll either repeat last yer or even improve some, but there may be an almost equal chance he'll totally revert back to old form. Giving him a mean projection doesn't really give a truthful picture of the situation.

I want to believe he can sustain his pace from last year, but I'm not sure. Even if he does, and even with Cirillo (who will be critical this year either way to boosting third base numbers), third base is definitely the worst position in the organization. We don't even have a Span or a Brian Anderson there. We just have a couple guys in the low minors who are long ways away or Matt Moses, who is about as far away as Brian Anderson but has the lackluster quality of Span.

I will offer a guess though. I'll take Ubelmann's line but with only 450 PA's to make up for some subbing from Cirillo and being nicked up (hah hah hah) a couple times without going on a long DL stint.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 7, 2007 11:57 AM EST reply actions

Punto won't stick

at 3rd for the whole year. I think that the chances of either an injury, replacement by Cirillo (with the rationale that we really miss Punto's utility), or a trade for another 3rd baseman (with the same rationale) are better than 50:50

375 PA

0.250/0.310/0.340

tborg

by tborg on Mar 7, 2007 1:36 PM EST reply actions

If he doesn't get hurt...

...I could see him sticking at third. I'm not sure if he's going to stick in the #2 spot in the order. If he's hitting .250/.310/.340 (certainly a possibility in my book), I think Gardy would "shake it up."

by ubelmann on Mar 7, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

I kind of agree with this...

and I'll say .263 for AVG. But I agree that I wouldn't be shocked at all to see a trade here, with Punto shifting to utility to really round out the bench. I'd prefer a future CF (if we don't re-sign Hunter, which obviously is looking likely at this point), but 3b will have to do. I still think Valencia takes off this year and is ready by 2009 to man the corner for us for a while.

I guess I mainly kind of project him to do worse not just because of him personally, but sort of the baseball gods. I expect big improvements from Kubel/White, and I really don't expect any of Hunter/Castillo/Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer to regress much, if at all. So that leaves Punto. SOMEONE has to regress, don't they? If Punto doesn't, our offense is going to be TRULY amazing.

by djskilbr on Mar 8, 2007 2:45 AM EST up reply actions

Punto

with Punto the only stat I am really concerned with is obp with I am projecting a .330-.340. I am hoping for a .350+ and 15-20 SB. what other value does he have as a hitter?

by doofus04 on Mar 8, 2007 8:38 AM EST reply actions

I'll say

400 PAs, 200 at 3B (splitting time with Cirillo), 200 at 2B after midseason trade nets third baseman (splitting time with Casilla).

.260/.290/.320 15 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 0 HR, 10 SBs, 7 CS

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 9, 2007 4:36 PM EST reply actions

Punto

475 PA
.265/.310/.351 1 HR 14 SB 6 CS

He'll start out playing everyday, but after an injury puts him on the DL he'll start splitting time with Cirillo at third while backing up Bartlett at short.

by Waldo on Mar 9, 2007 5:10 PM EST reply actions