Should we be worried yet?

by Jon Marthaler on Apr 14, 2007 8:01 PM EDT in News

The Twins finished last season with a 71-33 run, and all the key lineup pieces return. - Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, in a blog posting predicting a 95-67 record and first-place finish for the Twins.

Christensen summed up my exact reasoning, in picking Minnesota first in the division this season: this team played .700 baseball for almost four months, and even controlling for the brief presence of Francisco Liriano, the team hasn't changed all that much between last year and this year. Why shouldn't Minnesota repeat?

Well, it's incredibly early in the season. Barely 6% of the games have been played. But in the season's first ten games, I think we've seen just exactly how a major Twins drop-off might go down.

Here's a few examples of the manifestations of a drop-off:

In 2006, Minnesota hit .296 with runners in scoring position (second in the league), and .289 with runners in scoring position and two out (first in the league by a pretty wide margin). So far in 2007, they're hitting .242, .189 with two outs, both down near the median.
In 2006, Jason Bartlett made 13 errors in 99 games, and hit .309. In 2007, he's made four in eight starts, and has only two singles in 23 at-bats.
The "piranhas" - maybe the story of 2006 - have been toothless in the season's first ten games. As Nick Nelson points out: "Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Hunter have combined to hit .300/.357/.520 so far this season, [but] the rest of the lineup has delivered a paltry .203/.267/.238 line." There is a reason Joe Mauer has only one RBI this season - he's had only four at-bats with guys in scoring position.
Nick Punto: .132/.214/.211, 9 strikeouts. In 2006 he hit .290. For his career, he's hitting .256. Which is the truer picture?

Last season was a magical year, there's no question. The Twins got great performances up and down the lineup, and when they didn't, there was always somebody there to pick up the slack.

What if that doesn't happen again this year? What if Nick Punto's really the second coming of Denny Hocking? What if Ron Gardenhire's misgivings about Jason Bartlett end up being proved correct this time around?

I looked at the roster for this year, and I thought, "This team hasn't changed that much - the lineup is practically the same. Why shouldn't they repeat?"

What I forgot is this: it is a different year. While the faces remain the same, the players are still different.

There's a long way to go. 94% of the season is left to be played. But I know exactly what I'm worrying about.

Are you worried yet? And if not, what evidence is making you think everything will be okay? Let's hear it in the comments below...

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

With

With respect to the batting averages with RISP, both that number last year and that number this year is pretty much the same as what our hitting in all situations is/was. In other words, in "the clutch" they hit just the same as they did the rest of the time. This year, that's poorly, last year, that's well.

This is just a slow start. 10 games like this in mid-August, especially when you still go 6-4, isn't even noticed, it's a total hiccup. Since it's the first ten games, everyone notices and starts to panic. Patience...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2007 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

RISP

Good point about the batting averages, I hadn't thought of that.

While it's not necessarily good that the explanation for "The Twins can't hit with runners in scoring position" is "Don't worry - they can't hit at all!", it's nice to know that the problems with runners in scoring position isn't endemic of anything.

by Jon Marthaler on Apr 14, 2007 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup

The Twins can't hit with runners in scoring position" is "Don't worry - they can't hit at all!
Exactly. That's the worrisome part. But considering how slow they're all starting, we have to think they're going to pick it up. Since we know they "clutch" hitting isn't any weird isolated problem, it makes it all less of a panic and something we can just wait out on. We KNOW they aren't going to hit like .230 this year.

My concerns are specific instances of the struggles, namely Punto's struggles, as well as Bartlett's (but less so with him). I'm not worried about most of those guys, but Punto's old approach coming back is troubling.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2007 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Ug

I freaked out listening to Gameday radio today! Tyner came SO close to getting his first homer.

I saw him hit one like that once, only a couple feet from the top of the baggie. I was sitting there saying "no way, no way..." as the ball was going out, but it just didn't quite make it...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2007 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

Pitching

The 1-2 and 7-9 hitting will eventually come around, or to more acceptable levels at least. The bigger worry for me is if the rotation can hold its own this year.

Ortiz has looked great thus far, but his overall track record still makes him a pretty big question mark for awhile. Virtually the same story with Silva as well. Ponson has struggled, which most people expected. Bonser has looked okay, but you still never really know which Boof will show up on the mound. That of course leaves you with the reliable Santana, who gets better as the year goes on. I'm hoping Bonser and Ortiz help stabilize the rotation, and maybe one of the other two can step up more than expected. Or we could always, you know, start Garza...

by rayken on Apr 15, 2007 4:44 AM EDT reply actions

I've

i've already detailed many times why i think concerns in the rotation are overblown and he team has a good shot of having an even better rotation than last year. We'll just see what happens.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2007 5:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Pitching

I'll tell you one thing: if the rotation ends up being solid all year, we may have to be the first franchise in history to erect a statue of the pitching coach outside the stadium in celebration, because at that point it will be clear: Rick Anderson is a genius, verging on a deity.

by Jon Marthaler on Apr 15, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

You know...

It's kind of odd; I actually find myself thinking that if Rick had another month to 1 1/2 months with Ponson, that he could actually start showing real progress, because I bet Ponson is still adjusting/recovering from the elbow stuff, weight adjustment, etc. That could actually make Ponson a valuable chip. BUT I just don't think we can wait on Garza that long, as he's ready now IMO, and I don't think Ponson will be good FOR that 1- 1 1/2 month. Kind of a catch 22.

I wonder if Ponson would accept a AAA assignment. Does he have to?

by djskilbr on Apr 15, 2007 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

No

No need to keep Ponson if/when his results catch up to his shakey outings. We;ve got ace level prospects for that...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

What

What's wrong with Joe Nathan? He's been garbage the last few appearances...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2007 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

Slider

He doesn't have it right now. He has no equalizer and hitters can sit on his fastball because that slider is nowhere near the zone. I'm not completely worried about him and I'm confident his slider will be back. But until that slider gets back to the strike zone, he's not going to be striking many hitters out and his fastball is going to get hit hard.

by TheMattWilke on Apr 15, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Thoughts

I have to admit I stole the Mauer/Cuddy/Morneau/Hunter vs. the rest of the lineup stat from SBG's site. So I must transfer all credit to him (or, more specifically, ubelmann).

I'm frustrated with how the offense has played, but I'm not overly worried for a few reasons. For one thing, Bartlett and Kubel just seem to be coming around. Both those guys have shown a tendency to get off to slow starts, but we know they can both hit. I think we'll see both those guys boost their offensive performances. Meanwhile, the injuries to White and Cirillo have put the Twins in a situation where they have to use guys like Redmond and Rodriguez at DH; White is due back from the disabled list in a week or so. Finally, I really do expect Punto to get things turned around, although it now appears he may be headed for the DL.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Apr 16, 2007 3:29 AM EDT reply actions

Punto

Punto is the only one I'm really worried about right now. The rest fo thsoe guys, it's frusterating, but we're still 7-5 with a lot of strugglers, so thats maybe a decent sign...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 16, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions