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Kevin Slowey Projections

Today's the day that Kevin Slowey gets his first start in a major league ballgame.  What do the numbers suggest Slowey might do?  Three projection systems (that I know of) have projections for Slowey: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA.

6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.02 ERA -- CHONE
6.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.31 ERA -- ZiPS
5.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.16 ERA -- PECOTA

PECOTA also has comparable pitchers for Slowey, and it does its player comparisons by player seasons, rather than by player careers.  Recognizable names show up on Slowey's comparisons, which tends to be a good sign: John Maine '04, Verlander '06, Milton '98, Blanton '04, and Mussina '92, amongst others.

It's interesting to me that the three systems, with different methodologies, basically come to the same conclusion w/r/t Slowey.  Solid, if unspectacular strikeout rate, with low walk rate, and an unattractive propensity for the long ball.

That's the sort of profile that has illicited a lot of Brad Radke comparisons.  How justified are these comparisons?

3.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.32 ERA -- Radke 1995 (age 22)
5.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.46 ERA -- Radke 1996 (age 23)
5.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.22 ERA -- Radke, career

[Note: in 1996, the league average ERA was 5.15, so a 4.46 ERA was really pretty good.]

I'm amazed that Radke was able to have an ERA of 5.32 in '96, given that abysmal strikeout rate combined with a pretty horrific HR rate.  By his next season (181 innings and 28 starts later, I might add), he started to put things together.

Later in his career, Radke improved his already good control to a level that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball at preventing walks.  It's much too early to tell whether or not Slowey can pitch like late career Brad Radke, but I'd say that early career Brad Radke really isn't a crazy comparison, at least if you're trying to describe Slowey's style and not how his entire career will turn out.

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Good work
I thought about guys like Boddicker, Drabeck and even Hershiser. But Radke seems the best comp to me.

The most difficult thing to predict is how Slowey develops. If Anderson can teach him to get better sink, he might turn out like Hershiser. Or if he learns a Radke-type change-up, his K/9 rate could go up. It'll be fun to watch.

Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on May 31, 2007 11:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes
"I'd say that early career Brad Radke really isn't a crazy comparison, at least if you're trying to describe Slowey's style and not how his entire career will turn out."

That's an EXCELLENT qualifier for the Radke/Slowey comparisons.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 4:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Upside?
Let me be the first to suggest that an optimist would factor in Slowey's (Fastey's?) makeup and project him as a Greg Maddux clone.  Maddux, similar repetoire, build and makeup, wasn't given the time to learn the Twins gave Slowey, but became a pretty fair country pitcher at 23.  One can hope.

by yossarian on Jun 1, 2007 7:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

K/9s a little low?
I read in LaVelle's article today that his total minor league K/9 is 9.22.  And this year his K/9 isn't that much worse.  I would have expected his projections to put him at at least 7.  

by TheMattWilke on Jun 1, 2007 10:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Based
Based on his style, I doubt it.  He won't have the stuff to strike out a lot of major league batters with their superior control of the zone.  He seems like an immensely smart individual with an exquisite knowledge of how to pitch and how to get people out though.

I wonder though, what did Maddux or Radke's minor league K totals look like?  I bet they were a lot higher like Slowey's.  I wonder if a lot of Slowey's strikeouts come on looking K's or not.

Actually, the only thing that worries me about him is where those extra strikeouts go.  Does he get them from getting ahead on hitters then throwing junk out of the zone that suckers the young AAA hitters into bad swings?  What happens when he has to come in against MLB hitters?  Does it come from freezing hitters with lesser plate eyes?

A lot of the K's will end up coming from changing speeds up in the majors, but the one concern for me would be what happens to those 4 out of 9 K's that come from throwing balls out of the strike zone when he has to come into major league hitters?  That's the spot that probably ends up as the hangup because it might mean a change in approach.

But based on his intelligence, he should be plenty smart enough to figure it out.

We have to try and remember though, and this is going to seem out of character, that a lot of pitchers with long careers were only okay their first years.  They didn't really put it all together yet.  Some guys do, but not everyone, and Radke is a good example.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Radke & Maddux
I just looked up Radke's minor league numbers - he had a career K/9 of 6.99 in the minors, compared to a 5.39 in the majors.  Interestingly, though, his last year in the minors, all of which was spent at AAA Nashville, he had a K/9 of 5.94, the lowest of his minor league career, but it was offset by a 1.64 BB/9 rate (almost identical to his 1.63 career major league rate) and great hit and HR rates, leading to a 2.66 ERA.  Looking at the numbers, it seemed like he really got a good grasp of his eventual major league pitching style that season - he eventually managed to mostly translate the walk and strikeout rates to the major league level, although homeruns remained a problem, as we all know.

Maddux's K rate was actually lower in the minors than in the majors, and it doesn't even look like that was skewed due to improvement during his major league career - even in his first mostly-full season with the Cubs (27 GS in '87), he had a 5.84 K/BB, while his minor league total was 5.66.  It looks like he kept his ERA low in the minors through a combination of fairly low hit rates (7.92) and a microscopic HR rate (.29).

A side note: Maddux's homerun rates are amazing - his career rate was .62, just over half of Radke's 1.20, and in '94 when he put together a 1.56 ERA, it was .18 - 4 HR in 202 IP.

by BeefMaster on Jun 1, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Precedent
Here's how Slowey's PECOTA comps did in the minors as compared to the majors w/r/t strikeouts:

9.39 K/9 minors, 6.46 K/9 majors -- John Maine
8.53 K/9 minors, 6.42 K/9 majors -- Eric Milton
10.36 K/9 minors, 5.97 K/9 majors -- Justin Verlander
8.33 K/9 minors, 5.11 K/9 majors -- Joe Blanton

So at least within the guys that Slowey is being considered comparable to, a dip of 3 K/9 isn't uncommon at all when making the transition from minors to majors.

by ubelmann on Jun 1, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There
Well there you are.  Verlander seems to be a bit of an odd comparison to me though as he does in fact have the hot fastball.

Why doesn't Verlander strike out mroe guys with that 98 MPH fastball of his?

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maddux
I don't think he's a good comp. When Maddux came up (at age 20), he threw a 95 MPH heavy sinker. He made himself into a finesse sinkerballer over the next three years. But he can still get it up there a couple of times a game when he needs a key strikeout. Slowey will never be able to add velocity when he needs it. So he will have a tougher time getting strikeouts unless he improves his change-up.

He also needs to get more sink to compare with Maddux. Maddux has the best movement and control combination I've ever seen. Radke could spot his mostly straight fastball. Maddux can spot his sinker that moves close to a foot.

I think Slowey will have a career somewhere in between Kevin Tapani and Orel Hershiser. It all depends on health and development.

Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I will
"I think Slowey will have a career somewhere in between Kevin Tapani and Orel Hershiser. It all depends on health and development."

I will take the ubellman approach and modify this quote like this:

I think Slowey will resemble something between Kevin Tapani and Orel Hershiser.  It all depends on health and development."

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Inaccurate
>>>
I don't think he's a good comp. When Maddux came up (at age 20), he threw a 95 MPH heavy sinker. He made himself into a finesse sinkerballer over the next three years. But he can still get it up there a couple of times a game when he needs a key strikeout.
<<<<

95 mph fastball? Greg Maddux?

At no point in his career. Not even close.

Even out of high school the scouting report on Maddux was his fastball topped out at 89. It never changed.

The MLB Scouting Bureau report on Maddux was "average velocity on a sinking fastball", and no scout projected him to ever be overpowering.

He was a mid-80s pitcher when he came up with the Cubs, just as he was at Valley High in Las Vegas.

At 25, with 173 starts (Slowey would project to 173 starts in his late 20s, and in only someone's wildest dreams is likely to compare to Maddux), Maddux's fastball speed had not changed in any way worth noting in comparison to his high school days.

He could reach 90 on an accurate gun in his early seasons with the Cubs, giving him at best 2 mph over his high school days.

At that point, his changeup was his out pitch, a devastating fuse to more empty right-handed swings than any other pitch in baseball. It was Maddux's changeup that made his dipping 87-mph fastball so effective. But 95? That's just plain incorrect, and by a long ways.

Maddux's fastball always moved, but it was never something that would scare a hitter if it had come at his shoulder.

At 25, Maddux threw the fastball plenty, but he also had a slider (which he lacked completely in high school and overthrew in his early Cubs' years; it was his worst pitch), curveball (which was a good pitch for him against high school hitters, but he got on top of it only intermittently even when he was 25, which was sometimes understandably problematic for him), that unmatched circle change and a well-above average splitter.

by Firpo Marberry on Jun 2, 2007 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Yeah, that's all true.  Maddux never had that mid-90's velocity.  He had movement on his pitches like I've never seen before though, and he could hit the catcher's target exactly every time.  It was unbelievable to watch him work.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 2, 2007 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
All I can say is, the WGN gun must have been wrong then. Because he did hit it when he first came up. I saw it (up in St. Cloud, WGN carried every Cub game back then.) He just didn't hit it very often. And through most of his career, he tended to try to throw slower. But he can hump it up there once in a while just to get a key out.
Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 2, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A Little Off-Topic...
Am I the only one who thinks it's hilarious that Greg Maddux is only getting paid $10 million this year for a full season with the Padres, and Roger Clemens is getting $28 million to pitch 4 months for the Yankees?  If you asked me who I'd rather have (both for a full season), I'd probably take Maddux at this point.
-Flip

by Flip27 on Jun 1, 2007 12:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Clemens
Clemens isn't getting paid 28 mil.  He's making thr part of 28 that he'd make in his time he'll actuall be here.  He'll be around for 4 months, so he'll end up with about 19 mil.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd pass...
on that $9 mil haircut :-)

Not really.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Jun 1, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I too am curious about that
I'd much rather have Maddux, personally. It's a testament to the Padres to get him for that price. Ever since they drafted Matt Bush, it seems like they haven't made any mistakes. Of course, that one was a whopper.
Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?
I understand why you'd want a guy for a full year and that Maddux is cheaper, but Clemens has pitched MUCH MUCH better for the last several years.  He will probably have comparable results to Madux this year and be pitching against much better hitters (the biggest bats in the game in the AL East instead of some of the worst in the NL West) in the AL.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Clemens is done
I know he's more than just a power pitcher, but power is a much bigger part of his game than it is for Maddux. And I don't think he has much gas left in the tank.
Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Based
Based on what?  He's been great the last couple years.  I think he'll take a big hit this year, but even if his ERA balloons to 4.50 in the AL, that's still pretty decent.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Based on his minor league work
I know he has to rebuild his arm strength and stuff, but last I saw, he was barely touching 90. I don't recall him struggling this much in the minors prior to joining the Astros in past years.
Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough
Fair Enough.  We'll find out pretty soon anyway.  That's all post signing knowledge though.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right
The Yankees looked at his work the last couple of years and their M.A.S.H. unit of a pitching staff and deemed he was worth the risk. I can see why they did it. But it could be the end of the line for Roger. He reported out of shape, something he has never done before. And it's showing on the mound in the minors. If he's lit up by A-ball and AA hitters, I wonder how it will go with AL hitters. Perhaps as he rounds into shape, he gets the old life on his fastball back.

History is replete with guys who extended their careers a year or two too long with disastrous results. I am old enough to remember when the Twins brought in Steve Carlton. That was ugly and embarrassing. I don't think Clemens will be that bad. But he won't be as good as he was the last couple of years, that's for sure.

Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love it
I love how Clemens tried to pick a contender and ended up picking the flat-lining Yankees. Have fun not playing in October, chubby.
Replace Nick Punto.

by rayken on Jun 1, 2007 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

18-ish
Million should guarantee that he indeed does have fun, at least I would hope it does.

by JS22 on Jun 1, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Naw
Naw.  18 mil?  How can you have fun on any less than 23 mil these days?  I know I can't...
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True or Not
"He reported out of shape, something he has never done before."

That is very true, and quite a concern for a guy who has always attributed much of his success and certainly his career longevity to being a very very hard worker.

"If he's lit up by A-ball and AA hitters, I wonder how it will go with AL hitters."  

That isn't really fair.  He gave up one run on three hits with two K's in four innings.  Granted, though, the Twins A-ball lineup he faced is pretty flimsy.  In AA he pitched worse, giving up 3 runs with 4 walks in 5.1 IP.  That's not so great, but I wouldn't call it being 'lit up' per se.  In AAA, he pitched very nicely giving up only two hits and two walks in a six-inning shutout, while striking out 6.

I wouldn't really call that a very poor rehab stint at all.

All this said, I see the basis of your concerns, especially the out of shape beliefs.

At any rate, we will find out very very soon what he's capable of giving the Yanks.  I'm not sure how I feel about Clemens outside of his magnificent career, but I know I hate the Yankees, so I wouldn't mind so much if he flops.

All this information we just talked about though, is stuff they have learned since they signed him.  I was more speaking that I would rather have Clemens if I had to pick between the two before the fact.  

As curiosity, what do you think Maddux would be able to do were he in the Al East?

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 1, 2007 5:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Maddux in the AL East
Not too pretty, but he'd give you some innings and a few dominating starts per year. Something like 210 innings, 230 hits, 35 BB, 115 K, 25 HR, 4.75 ERA. I'm going out on a limb to say that Clemens will be worse than that.
Free Kevin Slowey.

by cmathewson on Jun 2, 2007 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll
I'd say that's pretty reasonable, but I'd only give him about 190 IP.  No big deal.

Hey, you know what would be fun?

I think at the end of the year I'll do an entry comparing 40-plus year old pitchers and things like that.  Should be interesting.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 2, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Projections
are fun, I suppose, but ultimately not very useful.

If you did a projection of the Twins finish in their division last year at this time, it would not have been pretty.

But, instead, they ended up winning the Division.

Slowey will be whatever he is, despite our best attempts to bracket him at this point.

And no matter what the numbers, it always comes down to making good pitches at the right time and hanging in there giving your team a chance to win.

by Old Twins Cap on Jun 2, 2007 10:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What is the point of being a fan?
I'm trying to have fun here.  So if you're stopping by to say "well, this is fun and all, but not useful," you're missing the point.

And no matter what the numbers, it always comes down to making good pitches at the right time and hanging in there giving your team a chance to win.

It would be AMAZING if I could make one post here without someone talking about how numbers don't matter.  No one said that numbers were everything.

by ubelmann on Jun 2, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tears
"No one said that numbers were everything."

They aren't??!

*(whimpers, begins to cry silently, runs of bawling like you just told a 5 year old there is no Santa Claus, Easter Bunny, or Tooth Fairy -- which is very mean because there obviously is)

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 2, 2007 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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