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An Answer to Jesse's DH Crisis: Wily Mo

I was going to post this as a comment to Jesse's "DH Crisis" featured article, but oh how long it grew.  This deserves it's own diary...

Anyway, I think that Ubelmann was the one who suggested this first here, but I really do think that the answer is a trade with the Red Sox, sending them Rincon for Wily Mo Pena.  It makes sense for several reasons...

1. Wily Mo deserves to get a shot at a starting DH role, but has never really been given the chance.  He was in the NL with Cincinnati for a few years (no DH), and now he is stuck behind some "Papi" guy in Boston (you may have heard of him).  He's also stuck behind some "Manny" guy in left field.  His lack of defensive prowess has kept him from ever getting even 350 AB's in a season.  Obviously, that wouldn't be an issue at DH.  He has a ton of power, but he's not much for getting on base.  Here's his career AVG/OBP/SLG: .259/.314/.474.  He's still developing and could turn into a consistent 30 HR, 100 RBI guy.

2. He's 25 years old, and he's not too expensive.  I think he's making $1.875 mil this year (according to ESPN.com).  That's less then Rincon's $2 mil, so don't worry about our payroll.  As I stated above, he has the potential to be a real solid DH for the future.  -And because of his lack of experience, he wouldn't be very expensive to re-sign.

3. If you consider the good chance that the Twins will lose Hunter after the season, the Twins will be needing a right-handed power bat anyway.  Span might end up being a good defensive center fielder, but he won't slug.  The Twins will miss his bat behind Morneau if/when he leaves.  No I'm not convinced Hunter's gone yet, but you have to consider the possibility if you're Terry Ryan.

4. Rincon's stock is fading with the Twins, but he does still have a lot of value.  Let's remember that Rincon has shown over a 3 year period that he can be a top set-up guy.  That's real attractive to a team looking for help in the pen.  Neshek and Guerrier are also rising stars, and that makes Rincon expendable.  The Twins probably also believe that Glen Perkins and/or Jason Miller are ready to be a second lefty and long man in the bullpen.  Our bullpen may seem a bit thin now with injuries, but (except for Crain) people are getting healthy and we do have a great 7th-8th-9th inning combo plus a LOOGY.  That's not even including Rincon.

The more I think about this, the more I think this could be the perfect trade.  For the Twins, this trade would essentially be giving up a year and a half of Juan Rincon (they wouldn't re-sign him) for a young bat that could turn out to be a solid, everyday DH at best.  At worst, he'd be a powerful pinch-hitter (something we also need).  For the Red Sox, they'd be giving up a power-heavy pinch-hitter (who is stuck behind better hitters) for a proven set-up man (which they need).

There are a few drawbacks, though.  The Red Sox might want to keep him in case Manny does depart.    They might see potential to replace Ramirez's bat with Pena's pull-heavy swing aimed at the Green Monster (though Wily Mo couldn't fill his shoes).  Boston might also think that Rincon's best days are behind him.  He is having an off year.  Perhaps Boston could be wary that they would be getting a lemon.

If I were Terry Ryan, I would be calling Theo Epstein on a regular basis and asking him what the Twins need to throw in to get this deal done.  Lew Ford?  Take him.  I'd even throw in Carmen Cali or Julio DePaula (but not both).  Better yet: Scott Baker.  The bottom line is that this proposed deal makes a lot of sense for the Twins, and if Boston is looking to put a shotgun blast in the undead/zombie Yankees (and go for another World Series this year), it probably makes sense for the Red Sox as well.

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Thank you for making a diary
I am in total agreement with you about Wily Mo. I truly feel he has the potential to be an outstanding DH. I think given a change in scenery and a shift to full time DH he could have a breakout similar to what happened to Ortiz when he left the Twins and went to Boston. He can crush a baseball like few others.

by eahnpurato on Jun 21, 2007 4:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Power Only
The main problem to Pena is that he has nearly no ability to get on base.  He strikes out way more then he walks.  I'd bet you could expect numbers similar to Hunter's, circa 2003-2005.  The average would be .260-ish with 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI.  He'd slug .450-.500, but his OBP would be only a bit above .300.

This trade makes a lot of sense, both because of the organizations involved and the timing.  If you're Terry Ryan and you're worried about Hunter leaving after the season, it makes even more sense.

I'm not a big numbers guy like some other people here, so I don't have the foggiest idea how Wily Mo projects to develop (perhaps someone better at such things could look into it), but it looks to my layman's eyes that this is trade that pretty much must happen.  Like I said before, I wouldn't be opposed to the Twins sending the Red Sox more then just Rincon to get Wily Mo Pena.

-Flip

by Flip27 on Jun 21, 2007 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wily Mo
I like the idea of picking up Pena, he sounds like the kind of player the Twins could definitely use--young, relatively inexpensive, provides some power.  I'll have to look into him a bit more.

by Jesse on Jun 21, 2007 9:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Pena
I'm not high on Pena at all, but as you lay it out here, I would have no problem with a Pena for Rincon trade. I would not add any more to it. I mean, if the Sox want for, Fine (I have no idea why they would other than as the replacement for Pena).

by SethSpeaks on Jun 21, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm in full agreement as well...
Pena is a perfect solution for this team, and he would come cheaply.  Get it done, TR!

If we could just get Pena plus a 3b from some combo of Rincon/Baker/Silva/2 minor league pitchers (maybe not ALL of those) I'd be very happy and we wouldn't lose anything pitching-wise (Perkins/Garza are still here remember).  Plus we just made our bench that much stronger as both Cirillo and Punto are excellent bench candidates, as is Rondell IF/when he returns.

by djskilbr on Jun 21, 2007 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

I dunno guys...
watching him the other night on TV, he reminds me of Pedro Cerano from the "major league" movies. Straight ball...he hit it very much, curve ball...bats are afraid.

He looked stupid on a few at-bats, and struck out in a manner which looked worse than Kubel's strikeouts.

I guess he is worth a flier, if ya' didnt have to give up much for him...but I think there is a reason why I have read many places his name associated with the term "batting practice sideshow."

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 11:07 AM EDT reply actions  

So
you'd rather DH Tyner?

by Jesse on Jun 21, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

No spanky...
Please note the "flier" comment, if it doesnt cost too much. But, to trade anything with value seems like a high risk move to me.

And when, in all the times that we have watched ball-games together, have I ever said that Tyner should DH? I give you a 2 minute minor for being weird...go to box, feel shame.

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...
...I just know you have a soft spot for 'guys who try really hard'.  You were pretty vague on whether you really would give Pena a shot or not, and since you didn't offer any alternatives I thought maybe you were happy with the options the Twins currently have available, with Tyner as an example.

And every time we watch a game, you ALWAYS say, at least once:  I love Jason Tyner.  I also love empty batting averages.  I wish Nick Punto could be cloned 9 times and play every position.

I'll take my minor now...

by Jesse on Jun 21, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

See...there you go again...
I have said I LOVE Jason Tyner...not love hi...wait, was that out loud?

And, to once again fix your skewed logic...I always say I love lil' nicky's heart. I wish we could duplicate his heart, and put it into 9 bodies.

I think I am gonna' give you a major now, 5 minutes for "douchey-ness" and a game misconduct.

Enjoy the locker room Lundie.

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Soft spot for Nicky's heart
...as long as it's not a hard spot for Nick's heart.

Seriously, you think like Gardy, who would rather have nine scrawny fast guys who "battle their tails off" but have trouble getting the ball out of the infield than nine lumbering guys who conserve their energy and can hit the ball over the fence.

Me, I like a mix of guys: Guys who have quiet intesnsity like Mauer and spray the ball all over the field, guys who play hard and hit the ball hard like Cuddyer, Morneau and Hunter, guys like Castillo who only run hard when they smell a hit. It takes all kinds to make a ball club.

It's all about results: four pop ups don't do us any good even if the guy is sliding head first into first base every time.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 21, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

No man,
I want Nicky's heart in everyone. Maybe his defensive prowess in there too. Trust me, when the twins announced that LNP was the "everyday" 3bag, I didnt get it. His career year was last year, anyone foolish enough to think his 2k6 numbers were gonna' be the norm deserve the sadness they are receiving.

I totally agree with you about the general make-up of the team, in fact, I think even I would scream if cuddy or Morneau ever laid a bunt down to advance a runner before the 8th inning.

I am a fan of effort. But I will give ya this, effort only goes so far. I am actually pleased that they have taken punto's starting job away, as his bat is a liability. But with that, getting back to my original point, before jesse got pissed i gave him a penalty, Willy Mo would be a liability of another fashion. But, again, if they could get him cheap...its worth a shot. I'd certainly rather see Willy Mo bounced out in the DH spot than tyner, punto or rodriguez for sure. My only concern in our theorhetical trade world would be, how much do you have to give up for a strikeout prone masher, when you have a strikeout prone masher in the minors by the name of Garrett?

By the way Cmath...you get no penalty.  ;)

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Garrett
I think you may be overestimating Jones' capability to mash. The numbers suggest that he'd be a pretty clear downgrade from Wily Mo, unless I'm some kind of stupid.

by ravenfly on Jun 21, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

All the talk.....
but a bench of Rodriguez (let's make him Punto), Redmond (you do need a second catcher), Ford and Tyner (let's have Garrett Jones and one, but not both), Jeff Cirillo (better than nothing) and anyone but Heintz (I'd take Milton Bradley over Ford/Tyner/Heintz).

Man, if LeCroy could still hit I'd bring him up in a minute as that 14th man.

Anyway, Twins going with 12 pitchers soon, even with mop-up innings eater Ortiz in the bullpen. Go figure.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Jun 21, 2007 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

No.
Wily Mo has horrible numbers.

by nathaneide on Jun 22, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

They both
have horrible numbers.  Low average, low OBP, high K rates, not good enough power to offset them all.  Jones is unproven at the major league level, but Pena's numbers are pretty much the best we could hope for from him.

So the question is, why trade for Pena when his twin is in Rochester?

by Jesse on Jun 22, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

And, to be honest...
I think that Kevin Mench may be a more realistic option. The brewers are rotting his teeth out...and I figure, for 25 passes to the Miller factory, Mench could become a twin.

Size 8 head, and yes Jesse...he does try hard. ;)

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's not going to be Darth Thomas
He doesn't have to be a great hitter for the trade to still be worth it.  Even if he ends up being only a quality deep-threat off the bench, it probably still makes sense for TR to make this trade.  -And that's a worst-case scenario.

He will probably end up being a passable DH.  His career numbers are strikingly simular to David Ortiz's when he was a Twin.  No, I don't think that he will turn into a right-handed Papi, but I would easily take what he is over any player we can DH now.  Even NBP.

-Flip

by Flip27 on Jun 21, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

.310
That .310 OBP scares me a bit, though it's not outside the realm of possibility that he could improve that as he matures and gets more regular playing time.

He does seem like a legit 30 HR guy, though, and that's worth a lot. Worth a hell of a lot more than Tyner's empty average or Ford's flailing, that's for sure.

by ravenfly on Jun 21, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Milton Bradley
The A's designated Milton Bradley for assignment.  What is stopping the Twins from trying to acquire him?

Obviously he's a loon, and he must have done something crazy to get DFAd, but he'd be a huge upgrade at DH/LF.

by tmm on Jun 21, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I think you hit it on the head...
He is a head case. He may decide that it is hunting season, bring a gun one day, and shoot TC bear.

Never can be too careful with guys named after a toy company.

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

BUT...
...I bet his pad is the place to be on board game night!!

by Jesse on Jun 21, 2007 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

How could it not be?
Unless of course, Milton has been "experimenting" with Candy Land...if you receive my meaning.

by mbennett on Jun 21, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

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