In the # 2
by GACTwinFan on Jun 5, 2007 7:59 PM EDT
3 comments
I've read quite a lot about moving Mauer in the 2 hole upon his return to the lineup. Most recently I read Joe Christensen this morning. He advocates this as well. Something he said got me to thinking (and forgoing part of my work day).
Specifically, how does the OBP of the #2 hitter affect our ability to win. What I did was look at both LNP and others in the 2 hole and how their production drove the offense.
Take a look at this:
Game Type W L Tot Win %
LNP #2 Hitter 16 17 33 .484
LNP not # 2 Hitter 12 11 23 .521
# 2 Hitter >.320 OBP 15 9 24 .625
LNP #2 & >.320 OBP 9 6 15 .600
LNP not # 2 & >.320 OBP 6 3 9 .667
The sample size is a bit smaller than I'd like. However, given a change (IMO) should be made sooner rather than later, I think this points in the direction of putting a higher OBP guy in front of Cuddy, Torii and Morneau with out the black hole that has been the # 2 hitter.
If the put someone in the 2 spot who can get on base 2-3 times per game consistently, maybe they can't get all the way to a .625 winning percentage. But, if they can gain even half that from where they are at currently, you're looking at 91 wins. Probably not enough - but a heck of a lot closer, and will definitely make for a much more interesting August/September.
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"I think this points in the direction of putting a higher OBP guy in front of Cuddy, Torii and Morneau with out the black hole that has been the # 2 hitter."
That should flippin go without saying.
Honestly though, I see it happening when Mauer gets back. I can't be sure, but partly based on a few passing comments, and partly based on the fact that Punto hasn't always been locked into that number two spot when he's in the lineup, I think we'll see Mauer there. Gardy knows stuff has to change. He isn't good always at projecting out how things will happen, but he's not mentally retarded, he knows Punto isn't hitting well and he knows he maybe has to change up last year's winning formula some. He'll do that.
by AdamOnFirst on Jun 5, 2007 9:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Read
The rumblings had been going on for quite a little while, but now it's official, Mauer will hti number 2 when he comes back, which is looking like it will almost definitely be Friday. If you read what Gardenhire said, it's pretty much all the things everyone else has been saying ie, high OBP guys in front of the power, Punto not doing as well this year, extra at bats for Cuddyer, Morneau, Hunter, etc.
Look, we get on Gardenhire pretty hard, me as much as almost anybody else, but it is important to remember he is a smart guy who knows about baseball. He definitely has his shortcoming, especially when it concerns the age of players, but he knows when changes have to be made and he knows how to keep a team going.
I guess I'm partially saying this because it's only fair that I applaud his choice when I think he makes a smart move as long as I lampoon him when I think he makes a poor one.
I think this will make the circa 2007 Twins lineup better. Of course, it's a pretty trite thing to say. No, really? Adding the most unique player in the league and the first batting title winner at his position EVER in his league makes a lineup better? Who knew...
by AdamOnFirst on Jun 6, 2007 6:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
#2 spot
Jason Kubel COULD be the #2 man of the futrue if he can raise that average up a bit.
But for now, you have the guys you want getting that extra at-bat in the 2-3-4 spots.
by twintown on Jun 6, 2007 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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