My Answer to the Poll Question
by MNPundit on Aug 19, 2007 3:59 PM EDT
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PrintWhat should the Twins Off-Season priority be?
Since I can't figure out how to comment on the poll: Replacing Terry Ryan. He's the equivalent of Kevin McHale.
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Easy
He's made some minor mistakes along the way--Batista, Castro, Ortiz, Ponson--but the damage was kept to a minimum because he never gave those guys a long leash.
He hasn't done enough for this club this year, but we don't know what options he has had either. I don't think he's doing a stellar job this year or anything, and he'll be the first to admit that. But to compare him to McHale is unfair. McHale is no one's GM of the year; and he has made dozens of errors int he magnitude of letting Ortiz go.
You have got to be kidding me...
I also question whether or not getting rid of David Ortiz was a mistake. In hindsight, certainly. However, would David Ortiz be the same player if he were still here? Maybe not. For some reason (maybe the concrete they play on) he spent a good part of every season on the DL. That may also have been the reason most other GM's had no interest in him that winter and he didn't sign with the Red Sox until nearly spring training.
by roger @ Twinkie Town on Aug 20, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Controversy
would David Ortiz be the same player if he were still here?
Probably not. But even the David Ortiz the Twins had in 2002 platooning with LeCroy in the DH role would have been a good guy to have. People forget he his 20 HR and 75 RBI with a .836 OPS in 2002. That was with his injuries. That was a lot to replace, and ultimately, LeCroy was not ready to replace that production. I for one thought it was an odd move to save a million dollars and lose that production, not to mention the protection he gave the rest of the line-up.
Worse than McHale?
Ortiz and Blake were mistakes but then again every other team passed on them. Ponson and Ortiz were a waste of money, especially since we have a bunch of youngsters waiting in the wings. But on the whole, who would you rather have? Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, maybe Billy Bean? Cashman and Epstein couldn't win without $150 million dollar payrolls and Billy Beane is just overrated.
Mistakes?
No one wanted to trade for him during waiver time. He became a fee agent. No one took a chance except Boston, which signed him for about half of what the Twins would have had to pay (the evils or arbitration). If Terry could've signed him for SIGNIFICANTLY less than a mill, he would've.
Then we could chastize him for not paying big bucks, long-term the following year.
Blake was picked up off waivers. He never really shined in the minors and one would've been hard-pressed to see what he did turn into...a competent guy at 1st, 3rd and OF with some major punch,
Pure roster, protecting the youngsters. You could see the same thing happen in '08 if the Twins, say, part ways with Brian Buscher. Maybe the guy could be a regular, maybe not. Don't blame Terry for this. A simple pick-up that wasn't kept, not just once but twice.
The biggest problem wiuth the Twins is the set budget. 50-52% of income. Period. Never borrowing against the future, but you can be certain that any savings from the past (or extra revenue once the budget has been sent) goes into personal family coffers.
by twintown on Aug 19, 2007 9:15 PM EDT reply actions
Personally
The FA mistakes are the more ridiculous ones. Ryan desperately needs to start taking chances on YOUNGER guys who are unproven and thus still cheaper acquisitions. Proven mediocre/poor players are not what this team needs. We have plenty of those to go around already. And if he wants to have these guys as backups that's fine, but don't give them decent chunks of guaranteed money to do so.
Number Two hitter
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Aug 19, 2007 10:04 PM EDT reply actions
Blake
And frankly, anyone with any sense has to be a bit suspicious of Blake's sudden emergence. He had some good years in the minor leagues, but nothing that predicted his performance in Cleveland.
As for Ortiz, any team willing to go to arbitration with him could have had him for the $50,000 waiver price. No one was willing to do that.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Aug 19, 2007 10:11 PM EDT reply actions
I couldn't disagree more
TR and McHale are pretty far apart and I'd guess that TR will still be GM long after Twolves fans have run McHale out of the Cities.
I don't get it
Casey Blake would have been a very good bench player to spell the oft-injured Cory Koskie. And he would have been a much better replacement for Koskie at third than the collection of stiffs the Twins have tried there the past three years.
I defy anyone to argue with those two points. Most people argue that, before the Twins cut them loose, nobody saw the two players being as productive as they became. True enough, but that does not lessen the fact that they both became very productive players after they left, and if they would have stayed, they would have helped this team win more games. In that sense, getting rid of them shows a lack of forethought that can be likened to a mistake. It's an excusable mistake for all the reasons people cite, but it is a mistake.
My point in bringing it up is that, if those are the only major mistakes Ryan has made the last seven years, he's done well.
This has got to be the stupidest post ever...
Take a look at Kansas City. That's where we'd be if not for Terry Ryan. The fact that the Twins have had a half dozen CONSECUTIVE winning seasons is largely because of TR. This is a small market with very limited resources compared to the teams we compete with. Ryan has made several BRILLIANT moves that have kept this team from falling back to the lower part of the pack. As a result, baseball has been revitalized in Minnesota. You could even argue that the new stadium deal would never have happened if we were just another bad team.
Every GM will make a few mistakes. Letting Ortiz go was a mistake. Casey Blake was another mistake. Then there's the Joe Mays contract. There have been smaller ones too like Batista, Castro, Sierra, Ramon Ortiz, Ponson, and even RonDL. You can even argue that getting Todd Jones and Rick Reed didn't do us a whole lot of good (though that's a stretch).
However, Terry Ryan's his good moves far outweigh his missteps. Let's have a little fun with this:
Brian Buchanan for Jason Bartlett. Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart. Of course there's A.J. Pierzynski for Boof Bonser, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Liriano. How about Eric Milton for Carlos Silva and Nick Punto? Acquiring Terry Mulholland from the Mariners for... wait for it... $1! More recently, J.C. Romero for Alexi Casilla. Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler for Luis Castillo. Even more recently, Ramon Ortiz for Matt Macri (no downside to that one even if he never makes it to the show).
It's true, he hasn't been able to court many free agents to lowly Minnesota. But he has still made some key additions via free agency. Does Kenny Rogers ring a bell? How about Henry Blanco? After he left, TR picked up Mike Redmond to replace him.
But the grandaddy of them all... what was the greatest move in the history of the franchise... Acquiring Johan Santana in December of 1999 via the Rule V Draft.
After looking at all of that, I can see why you would think that Terry Ryan is the problem [/sarcasm]. He's only considered to be one of the best GM's in all of baseball...
Not to forget
There are people
Hey, Hey, Hey......
Maybe the Twins should have never traded Denny Neagle.
Why did they let Todd Ritchie go?
If they ahd been more awake when drafting, J.J. Pultz would've been signed and sent thru the Twins system. They had Peter Moylan in the minors and released him.
Adam Lind was another unsigned draft pick.
Did Terry predict correctly when he let Mike Restovich walk, although keeping Corky Miller instead was a mistake. Will the Twins dread that they didn't keep J.D. Durbin as the mop-up reliever, instead going with Ponson and Ortiz?
Most decisions are made on the now. Although Terry Ryan and Company keep not wanting to part with prospects because of the great unknown. Better to keep them and have them tank than move on and be stars elsewhere...maybe?
Makes you realize just how difficult the job of general manager can be.
Proven players don't pan out. Rookies pull up lame. Prospects are TOO young. And then you have to deal with arbitration (unknowns) and free agency (just want to take care of my family).
by twintown on Aug 20, 2007 10:37 AM EDT reply actions
Minor mistakes
But when you have talent like Ortiz and Blake, you hold onto them until you need to trade them at the peak of their value. If you reviewed every GM in baseball, they will have Ortiz and Blake like deals. Ryan just has fewer than most.
replace Ryan?
There are a number of good pitching prospects - and, again, Ryan's responsible for all of them.
I don't like the composition of the 2007 roster either, but it comes one year after a team that was pretty darn good.
Ryan gets benefit of the doubt for 2007, IMO.,
He definitely gets benefit of the doubt
Not adding a DH may be a "mistake," but we were depending on a Kubel/White combo at the position this year until White got hurt. On paper, that wasn't a bad idea.
It seems that this year Terry has run into more bad breaks than he usually does. The credit to his character is that he realizes baseball has a long season, and he never pushes the panic button too early.
Injuries
The other side of that is depth. The Twins lacked the depth to absorb those injuries, especially to middle-of-the-order guys. And that's on Ryan. It goes back to 2001, when he instructed Radcliff to focus on pitching, which he did very well through the 2004 draft. The problem is, while we were stockpiling arms, we were not getting the bats we needed. Now when we need bats to fill in for injured players, we have to rely on minor league journeymen like Chris Hientz, Garrett Jones, and Tommy Watkins.
Since the 2005 draft, the Twins have had more balance between arms and bats. But that doesn't help us right now. Given Ryan's reluctance to correct the imbalance through trades, it leads to a seriously deficient line-up. The lesson they learned, which we are paying for now, is that, if you want to build a contender through the draft, you need balance between arms and bats.
Injuries
When someone falters, you should be prepared to repalce them either temporary or permanently.
When Sir Sid and Ramon couldn't do the job, the Twins had reserves in waiting. Slowey didn't pan out, but Garza has been first rate, as has Baker...or at least better than those that went before.
Sadly, Crain was a big loss in the bullpen (as well as Reyes being down briefly). There was some samples in the minors that have yet to perform (Cali and Miller). If Rincon didn't tank, and if the plug had been pulled on Ramon earlier with his "spot" being used as the audition spot, the Twins might have a surefire replacement to take the wear-tear off Guerrier/Neshek who can't pitch every other day.
White was a problem. The comeback kept getting put off. If you knew he would miss 100 games, should have IMMEDIATELY gone after someone, anyone. It seems the Twins have played the entire season hurt, with actually only 12 guys ready to suit up each day, two being the catchers.
And there was no bench depth. Cirillo was a great pick-up, except he was hurt. Tyner and Ford and whomever were all interchangable parts. Garrett Jones is no answer, He's come and gone twice...still hasn't figured it out. Heintz wasted bench space. Rodriguez was actually worse than Punto, who should've batted only 200 times at this point as the true backup infielder. There is no backup in the minors, and no pick-ups from other major elague rosters, so when someone is sitting, no suitable replacements.
by twintown on Aug 23, 2007 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Drafts
The actual drafts don't seem to support that:
2001 - first choice Mauer
2002 - first choice Span (Crain and Neshek were college pitchers from that draft)
2003 - first choice Moses (Baker is a college pitcher from that draft)
2004- first choice Plouffe (Perkins is a college pitcher from that draft)
The Twins have taken a lot of high school players and it takes them a while to develop. So if you want to point at the draft it has been focusing on high school players rather than college position players.
And if you look at trades, the Twins have two pitchers they got in trade Silva and Nathan and the regular lineup included Castillo, Bartlett and Punto all obtained in trades.
The real problem is this is a team in transition from the guys who won in the early 2000's to the next generation. Guys like Hunter, Nathan, Silva and Santana are the tail end of that first group. Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel and Casilla are the leading edge of the next group along with the young pitchers coming up.
What's surprising is that the Twins have made that transition while remaining relatively competitive.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Aug 22, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions
Beyond first round
- Six of the top 10 pitchers
- 14 of the top 21 pitchers
- 14 of the top 19 pitchers
- 24 pitchers in the top 25 rounds (with four extra picks, including Lahey as a converted catcher)
25th Round
When Radcliff said what?
The Twins have almost always take a lot of pitchers. In 1997, when they took Cuddyer, LeCroy and Restovich with their first three choices, they still took 7 pitchers in the first ten rounds.
2006 and, to a lesser extent, 2005 were rarities in that they put a lot more emphasis on high school position players.
They still took Garza, Slowey and Duensing in 2005. They wouldn't have a "surplus" of pitching without those guys. The high school kids taken earlier, like Swarzak and Rainville, are still developing just like the high school position players.
2004 - 24 pitchers in the top 25 rounds
The Twins aren't struggling offensively because they took pitchers in the 25th round of the draft.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Aug 22, 2007 3:13 PM EDT reply actions
When Radcliff said what?
It was widely publicized. In particular, LaVelle had a long interview of him on the Sunday before the draft. What did he say? "Mr. Ryan instructed me to focus on pitching from 2001 to 2004."
Reading Comprehension
The Twins took eight pitchers in the first 13 rounds of the 2005 draft -- five out of college -- and are seeing the results.
"That was at the end of a four-, five-, six-year period when we tried to address the lack of pitching depth in the organization," Twins scouting director Mike Radcliff said
That directly contradicts what you claimed he said elsewhere. Now - do you have a source for what you claim he said? Or is this another reading comprehension problem?
Aside from that, the question is not whether the Twins took a lot of pitching during that period. They did. But whether that explains the lack of depth in terms of everyday players. It doesn't. Because those drafts are too recent to account for much at the major league level.
I just assumed that you read stuff.
I do. But I can't read stuff even before you invent it.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Aug 22, 2007 4:01 PM EDT reply actions
Comprehension
Those drafts are too recent to account for much at the major league level.
I don't follow this. If they had drafted more hitters in 2000, 2001, and 2002, they would have more hitters in AAA whom they drafted, as opposed to guys like Williams, Valezquez, McDonald, Buscher, and Macri. Even high school guys only take five or six years to develop. The Twins drafted Kubel in 2000 and Mauer in 2001 out of high school, and they've been in the bigs for a couple of years now. Morales has been slow to develop and he's probably a September call-up as a 2001 draft pick out of high school.
And presumably, some of those hitters they passed up, in order to draft pitchers, were college bats, who take four to five years to make it to the majors, sometimes less. The Mets and Nationals can attest to how quickly Wright and Zimmerman made the jump. And Detroit drafted Maybin last year and he's starting in their outfield right now. Tolbert was drafted in 2004 out of college and he's knocking on the door.
Draft
You do that. Because
That's basically the point of the other quote.
Except that it talks about 2005, which is the year after your claim that they focused on pitching. and four, five or six years goes back to 2000-2002.
college bats
I think you can make the case that if they drafted more college bats they might have gotten lucky by now. Who knows, they might have drafted Butera and Macri.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Aug 22, 2007 4:50 PM EDT reply actions
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