Possible Hunter Replacements
At first glance, this coming offseason looks like the most difficult one so far for Terry Ryan as GM. Torii Hunter is a free agent, and Johan Santana is going into his contract year. There will be a lot of pressure to re-sign and extend these two. The expectations for 2008 are high, and the fans/press realize that the Twins have a window of opportunity next season.
If you look a little deeper, however, you will notice that the Twins have other options if they should lose one or both star players. Their talented, young pitching gives the rotation some hope should Santana depart. -But I want to talk about the other possible key depatrure. What can the Twins do if they are to lose Torii Hunter? He's going to cost someone $15-16 million per year for 4-6 years. In reality, the possibility of re-signing Sweet Cheeks might already be gone. Where does Terry Ryan turn then?
Denard Span is not ready. He hit .252 in AAA this year, and he needs to start next season in the minors and prove himself before even be given his first cup of coffee. Jason Tyner is a good 4th outfielder, but giving him the everyday job in center is like giving Punto the everyday job at third. OK, maybe not that bad, but you get the idea. Anyway, the only real option for finding a new center fielder is looking outside the organization.
The option of a trade is always present, but for the sake of argument, let's concentrate on free agency. There are actually several free agent center fielders that will be available. Luckily, the market is pretty rich with them this year. This might help push their cost dow a tad and avoid another Gary Matthews Jr situation. Let's take a look at the options:
Darin Erstad - Age 33
Erstad hits and throws as a lefty. He's very good in center field; he has 2 Gold Gloves there (+1 at 1B). The problem with Erstad is that he's been injured for most of the past 2 seasons. That's an indication that he may be wearing down with age and his career may be coming to an end. If he's healthy, he can produce .285 Avg, 10 HR, 70 RBI. If he's healthy. He could also be another RonDL. It should be noted that the White Sox have a $3.5 million option for him for 2008 that they really shouldn't and won't exercise. His injury problems make him dirt cheap, so he'll probably fetch a 1-2 years at $1-2 million per year.
Corey Patterson - Age 28
Patterson bats from the left side of the plate and throws right-handed. He's a decent outfielder, but not spectacular. At the plate, he should give you a .270 Avg with 10-15 HR and 50-55 RBI. He's having a very average year, and he's a very average Major Leaguer. He'll probably cost $4-6 million a season over 2-3 years.
Mike Cameron - Age 34
Cameron is right-handed both hitting and throwing. He's a very good in the field, being a 3-time Gold Glove winner. Offensively, he should only produce for a .260 Avg with 20-25 HR and about 75 RBI. It should also be noted that he is a very streaky hitter. Think Jacque Jones from the right side of the plate. He is having a pretty average season for his career, so there's no plus or minus to his value. He'll likely cost $7-9 million per year for 2-3 years.
Aaron Rowand - Age 30
Rowand bats and throws right-handed. He is an above average center-fielder, but he's not Gold Glove caliber. Offensively, you can expect .285 Avg, 15-20 HR, 80 RBI. He's currently having a career year as well, so his cost will be inflated. He should cost someone $9-11 million per year for 3-4 years.
Andruw Jones - Age 30
Jones bats and throws R/R. He is definitely a top-tier center fielder, a 9-time Gold Glover. At the plate, he should give you .270, 30-35 HR, 100 RBI. Andruw is actually having a very bad season for him, so he may be a bargain. He'll probably fetch $10-12 million for 3-4 years.
Well, those are your free agent options (along with Hunter). If I had my pick, I'd take Andruw Jones in a heart beat. Unfortunately, any number of teams might decide to re-sign these players before they hit the open market. That will probably happen with Jones, IMO. Rowand would be acceptable, but he isn't the middle-of-the-order hitter that Torii and Andruw are. Plus he's probably not the best option in terms of value for your dollar. Patterson might be an passable option because of his youth, but only if the Twins add a serious bat at DH or 3B to replace Hunter. Even then, it's still a downgrade. I also don't really like Cameron because of his streakiness. Erstad scares me, but he does have the possibility of being healthy all the sudden. If that happens, the team that signs him would hit the jackpot. I just don't think that will happen.
The end result here is that if Torii departs, you're most likely looking at a downgrade for the Twins. Both defensively and offensively. The good news is that there are plenty of free agent options to fill center field, but the Twins will absolutely have to use the extra cash to sign another hitter if that happens.
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25 comments
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Hunter's still the best value, IMO, but if we can't sign him, I'd be happy to have Cameron for $10 million a year.
by cmathewson on Sep 5, 2007 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is Jones still considered a premier CF?
I acknowledge it could be a one year thing (anyone can have a bad year), but I've also read/heard some complaints about his approach at the plate, to wit, "He's HR happy."
His strikeout numbers this year suggest the criticism might have some merit - he's struck out more this year (in 136 games) than he did in 160 games in 2005; he's within 2 of his 156 game 2006 total and he's even with his 156 game 2004 total.
I'm just wondering whether some GM's might be a bit wary about giving him a boatload of money.
by BD57 on Sep 5, 2007 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Change of scenery
by cmathewson on Sep 5, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, but...
by Flip27 on Sep 6, 2007 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On second thought...
by Flip27 on Sep 6, 2007 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Performance in the year before...
by ubelmann on Sep 6, 2007 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A suggestion
He is not a true center-fielder due to his limited range, but he played there plenty for the Expos/Nationals and did a creditable job, even in the large outfield of RFK Stadium.
He has not hit well the last two years in Texas but was a solid on-base-guy with some power prior to his trade to the Rangers.
He looks to be past his prime, but that means he will be cheap and I think it's fair to say you can probably expect about a .250 .350 .450 line from him, with 20 doubles and 20 HRs. He could be a reasonable stop-gap for a year.
by Victor on Sep 5, 2007 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He is not a true center-fielder due to his limited
Another option is Lofton, but he's more of a left fielder at this stage.
by cmathewson on Sep 5, 2007 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Span's Defense
While I have not seen Wilkerson play in a while, his defensive ZR was .886 as a CF in 05, which is not bad. And range is his only limitation really, otherwise he's a solid fielder.
I think you are right, however, that CF defense is considered too important to the Twins to take such a risk on someone like Wilkerson.
by Victor on Sep 6, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have only...
All reports I have seen about his defense, from writers in Rochester, indicate that he is very good with speed to burn. I understand that he does not have Torii's arm, however, his arm strength is not considered a problem...more of an average arm than a strength.
I don't know what the Twins plan for 2008. They obviously must believe that Span will begin the season back at Rochester, otherwise, he should be up here to get a feel for the major leagues.
by roger on Sep 7, 2007 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Darin Erstad
Don't believe it. His hitting is poor. He's always hurt. His defense is a far, far, and inadequate cry from what it used to be.
Give him a pass...
by AdamOnFirst on Sep 5, 2007 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's an interesting question...
by Flip27 on Sep 5, 2007 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Tyner has been...
by ubelmann on Sep 6, 2007 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you realize
;)
by BD57 on Sep 6, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
by ubelmann on Sep 6, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blocking
When we already have Tyner and Span, and Roberts, and Martin and a bunch of other little lefties running around out there, one more blocks progress in the system. Why not sign Castro for depth? Well, the heir apparent has done everything at AAA that the organization asked him to, for one thing.
by cmathewson on Sep 6, 2007 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
And second, Span didn't exactly light it up this year in AAA. Unless you want another year of Tyner & Ford as the options backing up the outfield, something has to change.
by Flip27 on Sep 6, 2007 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem isn't really...
So ideally, you like to have a good glove guy that can play center to give your regular CF a few days off, and you like to have a guy with a big stick to come off the bench and who can play a corner OF spot but doesn't have the defensive chops to handle CF. Someone, say, like Jack Cust.
Basically, I don't look at the Twins and wish that they had a better backup plan at CF, I look at them and wish they had a better backup plan in LF and RF, and I wish they had a legit guy to bring off the bench to hit in key spots.
by ubelmann on Sep 6, 2007 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tyner & Ford vs. Erstad
About the only negative I see to keeping Tyner around as the fourth OF is that Gardenhire gives him too many starts over Kubel.
by BeefMaster on Sep 6, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Macro level
Earlier I said Hunter was the best value. I'm not so sure. Rowand and Cameron might be the best value on the open Market.
by cmathewson on Sep 6, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The biggest
But his overall numbers still stayed very low and Ozzie almost stopped playing him completely before anybody noticed had been hitting well for a month. Then this year the sign team-killer Darrin Erstad.
I'm sorry, ths Sox haven't been a very well run franchise for a number of years. That they got so lucky and had every single member of their pitching staff stay healthy and have an unprecedented and never repeated career year en route to a World Series is an extreme annoyance to me.
by AdamOnFirst on Sep 6, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
by cmathewson on Sep 6, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just say no...
I'd be okay with Cameron, but if no Torii, I'd want Rowand most by a mile.
by djskilbr on Sep 6, 2007 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
















