Mets On the Move

by Jesse on Jan 10, 2008 1:56 PM EST in News

Sources indicate the New York Mets could be within a prospect's reach of Johan Santana.

From Joe Christensen and echoed on MLB.com, the Mets have reportedly offered outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber to the Twins in return for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. With the Yankees camp back-pedaling and the Mariners completely out of the running, New York's national league franchise has pulled in front of Boston as Johan Santana's number one suitor.

As Christensen notes, throwing in young outfield prospect Fernando Martinez would probably be enough for force Billy Smith's hands to move Santana. Further, Christensen breaks down the potential prospects:

Gomez, 22, could step in as the Twins' everyday center fielder next year. He is faster than Jose Reyes, the All-Star shortstop the Mets have made untouchable. But scouts say Gomez also has trouble hitting a slider. In four minor league seasons, he has 250 strikeouts in 1,251 at-bats and a meager .336 on-base percentage.
Guerra is a 6-5 righthander who signed with the Mets out of Venezuela for $700,000 in 2006. He pitched in the Class A Florida State League last season and posted a 4.01 ERA -- at age 18.
Martinez was recently named the Mets' top prospect by Baseball America. Guerra was No. 2. While scouts are skeptical about Gomez's ability to hit, they are more confident in Martinez, who climbed to Class AA last year at age 18.
Mulvey, 22, and Humber, 25, are both considered prospects, though neither currently projects better than a No. 4 starter.

That's a problem.

If this is the deal, I'm forced to agree with Christensen. While Gomez could take over center field from day one, a minor league career .336 OBP doesn't translate well to the majors when you have a severe lack of power. Humber might have a slightly higher ceiling than a number four starter, but even optimistically is a borderline 2/3.

Mulvey you might as well leave out of the deal, while Martinez and Guerra are still teenagers. All in all, it's not that impressive of a package; quantity cannot replace quality.

If anything further develops between Billy's Twins and Omar's Mets, I'll be updating here. Stay tuned.

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The deal I would take

As I mentioned in my post earlier this week, I think Mulvey is the best pitching prospect of the group. Here are Mulvey's key stats the last two years:

2006, Age 21, AA, GB% 59% FIP 3.72
2007, Age 22, AA, GB% 55%, FIP 3.28
2007, Age 22, AAA, GB% 47%, FIP 0.32 (in limited innings)

Fernandez is the best prospect of the group period. But you wouldn't know it by his numbers. Both he and Guerra were clearly rushed. He put up very good numbers for an 18 year old in the New York Penn league. But they moved him up to the FSL and he struggled, posting an OPS of .641. Rather than keeping him there to work through his struggles, they promoted him to AA.

If the Mets send Gomez, Martinez, Mulvey and one other arm to the Twins (probably Humber), I think Smith would jump at it. And I wish this would happen so we can get on with our lives and we can thumb our noses at the Sox and Yankees.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 10, 2008 3:49 PM EST reply actions

I'm hoping

Smith can leverage this offer against the Red Sox. Lester, Masterson, Ellsbury, Lowrie.

That or...why hasn't there been any talk of a three-team deal here? Clearly no two teams can come to a middle ground that both are happy with, it just makes too much sense to me to involve someone else that's looking to deal some combination of players.

by Jesse on Jan 10, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

not going to happen

I think Theo's only sticking around because he wants the Yankees to give up as much as possible for Santana. Facing Santana going into his 30s vs. facing Phil Hughes for the next 10 years has to seem like a wash for the Red Sox. I still have hope that the Yankee deal gets done, but this seems a lot more plausible.

I don't see how Martinez's addition blows the Yankees deal out of the water like Gleeman indicates. I still want a great player out of the deal with an above average CF. Just get the deal done with the Yankees.

<Gulp>

by TheMattWilke on Jan 10, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

Me no like

this is quantity over quality.

by TMoney on Jan 10, 2008 4:06 PM EST reply actions

CMAth...

...I agree 100%. Lets get this done and move on. I cannot imagine that there is any liklihood that Santana will remain a Twin after 2008, but I imagine that Bill Smith needs to play it close and get the best deal he can. If he gets something better than what you propose or all the other rumors, then he is a man I DO NOT want to play poker with.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Jan 10, 2008 4:08 PM EST reply actions

Something better?

That reminds me of the Dodgers. How about Santana for Loney, LaRoche and a good pitching prospect?

My infatuation for trading with the Dodgers remains strong, in spite of zero evidence they're even paying attention at this point...

by Jesse on Jan 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions

Is this just bodies for Santana?

I hope they don't make a trade of quantity over quality. I hope they are not going to just get a bunch of bodies for Santana to make fans think well one of them must be good.

I'd rather go with Boston or NY if it means better prospects. A 3 team deal might be what this situation requires.

But don't go out and get a bunch of kids who may or may not even contribute and is even less likely to put us over the top for a run at a ring.

by caluofmn on Jan 10, 2008 4:46 PM EST reply actions

Martinez and Guerra?

I noticed that no-one mentioned Gomez, Martinez, Guerra and Humber OR Mulvey. Is this because no one thinks the Mets would give up Martinez and Guerra?

I like this package because it provides quality and quantity. The reason it is more reasonable is that the quality is 3 years away. We get our CF right away, a pitcher to add to the youth competition, and two possible studs, who we can take through the system more slowly.

I'm concerned that the Yankees deal is a bad one if Hughes doesn't pan out, and the Ellsbury deal probably projects to getting above average players, but I don't think we're going to get any stars. Ellsbury is more likely to turn into Kenny Lofton than Ricky Hendersen, which while good, makes it a slim chance that we get a star out of the main Boston trade. With the Mets we have a chance to fill out some spots, and maybe one of Martinez and Guerra will hit their ceiling.

As with any of the other deals, I'm comfortable adding peices that would become expendable, like Casilla and Span. I don't know if they carry any value in trade, but they are likely to become trapped between cheap, dependable MLB players and higher potential prospects. Plus, there's always Rincon, Punto, Redmond and Reyes whom are worth ditching if they get us anything extra back. (Redmond only if it gets us someone we want, the others I would give away).

by snolls on Jan 10, 2008 7:06 PM EST reply actions

jianfu

It's unclear to me if the Twins want Martinez added to the 4 player offer, or if he'd replace someone in it.

I think it's pretty clear that he'd be mandatory just to get the Mets into the picture, though. I think the Twins' position on this has been fairly consistent throughout: they want both the outfielders.

Even if the Mets included Martinez on top of that 4 player offer, I'm a little surprised the Twins would pull the trigger instantly (if that's true). Does Martinez/Gomez/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra win hands down over either of Boston's deals? I'm not sure if it does. Maybe there's a bigger ceiling there, but what are the odds it's reached? And that pitching is pure quantity, which is important on the mound, but if you're going to get quantity, you'd at least like to get it with some guys who project a bit higher than that. I think I like even Masterson better than any of those three guys.

Don't get me wrong, a deal with Martinez included would be decent, but as a whole it feels a bit raw (it'd be really similar, actually, to the Dan Haren haul: a slew of really young B+, B, and B- type prospects with some projectability). But the Twins don't require a complete rebuild. Given that, I think I'd still prefer Boston.

by jianfu on Jan 10, 2008 9:14 PM EST reply actions

All five?

Yyes. Four of the five? Not so sure.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 10, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

If

If we got all five, I'd be down. Manaya would do something like that too.

Would I like it better than Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson, and Marquez? Hmm...

I'd lean towards no, but I don't know if that deal with the Yankees is possible...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 11, 2008 1:03 AM EST reply actions

Mets unpredictable

It's tempting to say the Mets are known for overpaying in prospects -- but then you remember that Minaya didn't make the Kazmir deal, he's here because the previous bozos who did got fired.

I still think the Mets the most desperate franchise involved, and if anyone would overpay it's them, but we can't expect another Kazmir deal, unfortunately; if anything that deal could make them gun shy.

The sure need an ace starter though. And even if they don't get him, they'd love to make the Yanks overpay almost as much as the Red Sox.

Let's go Mets!

by by jiminy on Jan 11, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions

Deal or PLEASE Deal

I have longed liked the Yankees deal, because of the upside of Hughes and Melkey would be a more than adequate replacement.

If the Red Sox would do Lester and Ellsbury, and I really don't know why they won't, that deal is done. I mean Lester is the long-lefty out of the bullpen in '08, if he doesn't have options to go abck to the minors. Ellsbury may/may not be the real thing. The Red Sox still have Crisp for two seasons with their already power-packed lineup.

The Mets deal, I would almost like to see Martinez over Gomez, if a choice had to be made. And then Bill Smith immeditaely goes out and signs a couple of short-term free agents...a first-rate probable starter (Bartelo) and a center-fielder (Loften, if not Cameron). Or, maybe because the Red Sox are so high on Ellsbury, trade Span and a pitching prospect for Crisp.

4 prospects from the Mets, a decent free-agent signing with the money leftover from the Santana no-pay, and picking up a free agent centerfielder or doin a modest Crisp deal 9Span and Waldrop, for example).

Let's get the roster a bit mreo set.

Of, just give Johan $100+ over 4-years with an option for a fifth, a minimal no-trade clause, and some of that millions as a signing bonus to keep the salary at $20 million in years 3 and 4.

I'm reading rumors of the Sox possibly flipping Crisp, and the Yankees looking to trade Melkey for prospects themselves. Hummmmm........

Of course, Seattle could be back in the mix of Bedard goes elsewhere.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Jan 11, 2008 12:49 PM EST reply actions

make this deal ASAP twins!

The yankees and red sox deal is not giving the twins enough for the best pitcher in the game. The mets are stepping up from the crowd and have offered us 3 pitchers, 2 who could be in the big leagues as soon as next season in mulvey who will start the season in the minors and humber who could compete for a rotation spot as soon as day 1. Carlos Gomez would step into centerfield right away and become a top of the lineup basestealer. Fernando Martinez would spend the season in the minors and could be in the majors in 2009, they really dont need martinez in the deal because adding Gomez would make the twins outfield cuddyer, young and gomez that would be one of the best outfields in the game and would allow jason pridie and craig monroe to help off of the bench so lets get this deal done NOW!!!

by MauerPower07 on Jan 11, 2008 9:06 PM EST reply actions

Re: Martinez

I disagree whole-heartedly. If F-Mart isn't included in the Mets package, I don't make the deal. Martinez will be entering his age-20 campaign in '09 and has a chance to be a very special player. Carlos Gomez steps in from Day 1 and starts in center for the Twins, but in a couple years when Cuddyer becomes a free agent, Gomez moves to right and Martinez becomes your franchise center fielder.

Humber, Guerra...and was it Melvey...aren't great pitching prospects. Decent, not great. Gomez and Martinez are what would swing this deal for the Twins. The three hurlers and just Gomez isn't a very large return, and if this is the best the Mets can offer then I'm going back to Boston and the Yankees.

by Jesse on Jan 11, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

I agree that Martinez needs to be in the deal...

no question to me.

But I think it is really fun to contemplate. If we got Gomez and Martinez, just what are we going to do in a couple years? That could be an absolutely LOADED outfield. Even with Cuddyer gone, if our "stud" prospects pan out, you have Young/Kubel/Gomez/Martinez/Revere/Parmalee/Benson all by 2011. And that's not counting guys like Pridie/Martin who still could pan out. I didn't even include Span either, mainly because I have less faith in him, but still. That's a LOT of talent in the OF.

If they end up with that, and the majority of those guys do pan out (I personally am pretty high on all the guys on the above "7" list) it's going to be an interesting Twins' dilemna.

by djskilbr on Jan 12, 2008 4:02 AM EST reply actions

Link To Infor about Martinez

Here is a Link from www.minorleaguebaseball.com, that was on MILB TV, where they talk a little about Fernando Martinez and what he can bring to the Twins. They also talk a little about Kevin Mulvey.
http://mfile.akamai.com/10869/wmv/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2008/open/bbchtv/shows/archive01/011 108_atm_400.wmv

Trav

by trap11 on Jan 12, 2008 11:05 AM EST reply actions

Tranks Tshryack

The whole segment is worth watching, but if anyone is just interested in the Twins portion it runs from about minute 4 to approximately 7:30. They discuss Reds outfield prospect Bruce afterward, stick around and watch that bit, too.

by Jesse on Jan 12, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

martinez

It's worth noting that most sources I've read--BA, BPro, Sickels and minorleagueball.com, etc.--feel Martinez will move to a corner before too long. I don't think he's going to be a center fielder, which affects his value, of course.

I don't know. I've been thinking about it, and the Mets offer just seems like more volume than substance. I don't like any of their pitchers all that much; and I know I'm supposed to be excited about Guerra, but it's hard to get excited about a pitcher who hasn't sniffed AA yet. And Gomez? I guess I fall somewhere in between the "he's going to be a star" and the "he's a fourth outfielder" camps. I do like what he did last year at a very young age; on the other hand, it's possible he's the next Willy Tavarez. (Also, to be honest, Gomez is a speed demon with poor plate discipline and pitch recognition issues, with some (as of now) gap power: are the Twins really the best place for him? Isn't it entirely likely that they'd treat him they way they do all the similar type guys they've had in the past (Guzman, Rivas, Casilla), and tell him to just slap it on the ground and run?)

I'm reading some things now that the Mets feel they're in the lead, and can make a deal "on their terms" (that is, no Martinez), which is absurd. Without Martinez, they're not even in the discussion.

I think if the Twins were in complete rebuild mode, the Mets offer might make more sense, because without much to lose and/or with minimal talent at the ML level, taking a gamble on boom-or-bust guys like Gomez, Guerra, and (to a lessor extent) Martinez might make sense. But the Twins have a solid core in place even without Santana. I think I'd rather they went for some young players to compliment it.

In other words, I still like either of the Red Sox offers better. (I even voted for the least sexy option on the poll: the Crisp, Lester, Masterson, Lowrie (and Kalish) deal; although I'd be fine with either.)

by jianfu on Jan 12, 2008 11:27 PM EST reply actions