The Santana Gambit: What's Your Backup Plan?
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 12:12 AM EST
in News
43 comments
90-Minute Editorial: Can the Twins avoid being undersold?
Nobody wants Johan Santana enough to step up to the plate and stand in against Bill Smith. Smith stands on the rubber, and everyone knows what he's throwing, yet general managers around the league are scuffing the toes of their cleats in the on-deck circle. Each and everyone of them know what they'll get if they can ball up and step into the box. So far, Bill Smith has no takers.
If any team (including the big three of the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets) wanted Santana, they would already have him. Each of the leading three teams, in assorted states of "needing" an ace, is a single player from consumating the rarest of trades: the trade that brings to your team the best player at his position. Yet the Yankees are hemming over a prospect who projects as a number two starter; the Red Sox have offered two packages but refuse to include the one player (Jacoby Ellsbury in lieu of Coco Crisp) who could complete the deal; the Mets, who are offering the weakest package in spite of the quantity, are jittery about handing over a 19-year old outfielder.
There's no misunderstanding what a trade of this magnitude means for each of the clubs involved. For any team who acquires Santana, the cost is high in prospects and in contract dollars. Any team who gets involved understands the balance between what you're giving up and what you're getting, and tries to get the most value for the least cost to themselves. And in spite of this, each of the three teams knows they're one player from completing a deal, and they've thus far refused to take the last step.
So, if you're Bill Smith, what do you do?
Option A: Blink
This is the undersell. In a situation where the Twins organization feels that the best offers they'll receive are already on the table, in a situation where they feel their position will continue to erode as time passes, they'll likely call Boston or one of the New York clubs and accept an offer that (at face value) appears to be a weak return. While a trade is better judged down the road, when contributions to the team are more in perspective, a trade will always face the jury the day it goes down. As the offers sit today, whatever team landed Johan Santana would come out ahead.
Option B: Stare In
Continuing to wait for one of the suitors to make the first move is the largest gamble, because you're either going to get paid off by attaining what Johan is worth, or you're going to get stuck making the best of your two draft picks...which is what nobody wants. In the worst-case scenario Santana becomes a free agent, and while the Twins are left with very uninspiring compensation for the best starter in baseball over the last four seasons, everyone else will be falling all over themselves to throw the most money at the Venezuelan southpaw. If Johan Santana wants an extension worth $140 million over seven years, how much more does he get on the open market? While the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox won't pay the cost of high-level prospects, they will be up against each other (and the Angels, Dodgers, Rangers and maybe more) to see who's willing to break the bank and break the record for how much a pitcher gets paid.
Option C: Take Your Ball and Go Home
This option involves re-thinking the direction of the organization over the next two years and beyond. If Bill Smith decides that nobody is offering up what Santana is worth (and they aren't), is it a realistic option to re-sign him?
Of course it is, but it involves serious financial committment (which puts a choke hold on payroll flexibility), and creativity in filling other needs in the next couple of seasons. Re-signing Santana means Minnesota would need to pony up a lot of money, but it also refortifies their bargaining position to trade him in the future.
- Re-signing Santana keeps Minnesota from a position where they "need" to trade him; it keeps them from being put into a position where they might need to accept less than he's worth or, worse still, it keeps them from being put into a position where they might need to accept two draft picks as compensation.
- Re-signing Santana strengthens Minnesota's position should they decide to trade him at another juncture. Not only does Johan already have the money he wants, but the recipient of his services won't have to deal with negotiating an extension or trying to bid against other clubs for his services.
- Re-signing Santana sends a clear signal to the rest of baseball that the Twins aren't an organization that will automatically roll over and simply hand away a player who appears to be "out of their league". The Twins have a reputation, deserved or not, of making a killing when acquiring minor league talent; this also means they have a reputation for dealing away their star players.
Final Thoughts
It's clear to me that the Yankees and Red Sox are doing just enough to keep the other team from picking up Santana, while not committing enough of their own to get him for themselves. I believe the Mets are more sincere in their interest, but are wary of depleting their entire farm system. As a result, none of the three teams are presenting an offer that makes the effort of trading Santana worth the process.
This puts Bill Smith in a very precarious and potentially career-defining position. Should something change and he's able to land one of the packages he's been asking for, he'll be dubbed a genious, one of the game's best general managers, and the perfect successor to Terry Ryan. If Johan walks, he'll be labelled unfairly and blamed for not "taking what he could get"...when in reality, he wasn't being offered a fair deal in the first place, and therefore was in a winless situation.
I realize that taking a new direction, that re-signing Johan Santana to a long-term contract, is a financial risk and that it alters whatever future plans Bill Smith may have had for the Twins entering the '07/'08 off-season. But I also believe that adaptation is a requirement to survive as a competetor in baseball, and it's important to be able to make those adjustments when things don't go to plan.
If I'm playing Bill Smith, I'm re-signing Johan Santana. There are pros on the list and there are cons, but when you weigh each of the options available I believe that going in this direction puts the Twins in the best situation going forward. Take Santana off the table, and find a new way to make the plan work.
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Excellent Jesse...
I'm taking Option C in a landslide at this point. Not sure the Twins are, but I sure hope they do.
I still desperately "need" to see Cisco and Johan together again back to back in a series.
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 12:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm in this camp right now...
Keep those fingers crossed on Cisco!
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Creativity
Contractual Creativity
Give Santana his money, but be creative in how you work the years. Offer a five-year deal with performance-based incentives to trigger options on years six and seven. This could be based on innings pitched or starts. For Example: Five-years, $100 million. Sixth-year option worth $23 million for 180+ innings or mutual option. Seventh-year option worth $27 million for 180+ innings or mutual option.
Years six and seven might be expensive now, but they won't be so much relatively speaking in 2013/1014.
Trading Creativity
There's been zero credible talk about involving a third team. There have been plenty of rumors, but has this been discussed? Usually these reports surface somehow. I have to believe talks like this have taken place, but I'm surprised that they haven't been more productive. Because clearly there is no combination of Minnesota and (insert team here) that's yielding a result.
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 12:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
re: contract
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I concur, nice post Jesse.
If not, and none of the teams improve their offers, I keep him and re-sign him. The Twins already offered him a respectable 4-year $80 million extension.
I say offer him a 5-year $105 million deal with options for a 6th & 7th year (example: if he reaches X amount of innings, it's guaranteed, if not, it's a mutual option).
Johan wants 6, Twins want to give him 4, find a way to work it out. But if the Red Sox are in fact offering that kind of package, I would have to think long and hard about it. As sad as it may sound, the 4th prospect who'd likely be a "throw in" might sway my vote either way. I haven't actually heard for sure that they have or will add a fourth prospect, but it would likely sway my vote. I think that I actually heard that if we insisted on a fourth prospect, that they'd then keep Masterson and instead add Bowden. It was a while ago when I remember seeing that, so it was probably just pure speculation at the Winter Meetings.
by Joshs Thoughts on Jan 23, 2008 12:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hahah,..
by Joshs Thoughts on Jan 23, 2008 12:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So the question is
by drnkmn on Jan 23, 2008 2:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't
Now 5 years 115 or 120 mil, maybe...
by AdamOnFirst on Jan 23, 2008 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, plus
by AdamOnFirst on Jan 23, 2008 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't know about that...
And I would also add, as I have before, that we should kick in a few more million for THIS season as well. We have the money this season so why not?
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 3:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, that was supposed to say:
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 3:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I have been saying for weeks...
My deal was a five year extension for $100mm beyond the current contract. Add a $5.0mm signing bonus which gets 2008 up to $18mm+, and some language on year 7 (sixth year of the extension)...say he gets $25mm which is at the Twins option, unless he pitches 190 innings in year 5 of the extension or 375 innings in years 4 and 5 of the extension...in which case the $25.0mm is then guaranteed. If guaranteed, the Twins would have a $5mm buyout. So the total deal would be $118+mm for the first six years or $143mm for seven.
Toss in some languarge about a no trade clause with additional language giving him the right to request a trade a year or two down the line and if traded, he gets another $5-10mm from his new team and this should be done.
by roger on Jan 23, 2008 9:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
BS probably tried
My guess is that BS tried something like this, but was still afraid to guarantee enough money. Remember, big contracts for pitchers have rarely worked out well for the buyer.
by snolls on Jan 23, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah...
The Twins have the opportunity to take control of the situation, rather than sit back and let the situation dictate to them what's going to happen, and I think they need to take advantage.
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless, of course,
But I think that's pretty unlikely. More likely, I think the Twins haven't tried giving him the money or years required to keep him. Absolutely it's a risk, long-term deals always are, but we're not dealing with just any old player and it's not just any old situation. We're dealing with the game's best starting pitcher, and a situation that has repurcussions on the direction of the franchise in the next few years. It's definitely a unique situation.
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
Remember, we didn't even try with Torii after 1 initial offer, at least according to Torii and his agent, so I don't find it unlikely at all that we haven't tried with Johan.
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Flaws in Option C
So they sign him and they're stuck with 20-25% of payroll to one player until 2015. The best case benefit is having an ace for the foreseeable future. This risks are numerous:
*That player has a history of minor injuries; God forbid he has a major injury and we devote a quarter of the payroll to a player who can't even play for two years.
*That player does not have a body to sustain this level of success well into his 30s; he's not Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling. His body is more like Pedro Martinez. We all know haw that has gone.
*Statistically, the odds are that player will not play at this high level during the contract; he will gradually decline through the life of the contract. So you're paying for an ace and getting a number 3 starter for much of the contract.
*The cost means needing to continually adjust the rest of the core to make room for the player. For instance, there's no way you can afford the player and your four top hitters (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Young) at the same time when the new ballpark opens.
For all these reasons, it's very difficult to trade this player. Teams that have twice the resources of the Twins or more are balking at the price. Why do you think the Twins can afford it when the Yankees and Mets can't?
I go for option A. To save face, I tell the media that I was just being generous to the clubs by giving them a spring training (or Twins Fest) deadline to improve their offers. When they did not, I took the best offer available. The best offer is better than the alternatives (Option C or one year with an ace and draft picks).
by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lot of good points
- I didn't assume anything about a trade clause in Santana's contract. It's pretty clear he'll have one in some form, but if the Twins decide to trade him in the future, there's little chance that Johan would decline a trade to a larger market...which is the only place he'd go.
- Umm....ok so the rest of your points are difficult to refute, if not impossible, because you're right about every single one. My only reply is that in this situation, the Twins can have their cake and eat it too. Because whether it's after '08 or '09 or '10, people will be willing to make a trade to get Johan Santana.
Financially it can be done. Things get tighter, but it's feasible. For the Yankees and Mets and Red Sox, financially it can be done. I believe the reason those teams are shying away, more than the money, is for what kind of players they'd need to give up to get Santana.
So then you get into the philosophical debate over whether the Twins are better off with Johan and who they already have, or if they're better without Johan but getting less than he's worth in return...it's messy.
One last reply in regards to the "four top hitters" (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Young). Don't forget about Cuddyer, who becomes a free agent in a couple years. But three seasons from now, you're also going to have a crop of hitters ready for the majors including Lis, Revere and Parmelee. If we're talking about concern for position players, there are some on the way.
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What Kind of Players You Need To Give Up.....
When dealing with prospects, it suddenly becomes another teams problem.
You have 3-4 years (now 4-5, right) to develop a guy. Then you have to keep them rostered for 4 more seasons or lose them. They become expensive after 4 seasons of service time.
The evils of getting MORE prospects is that the Twins have quite a few they have to start protecting come 2009 (or use as trade bait if in contention and need that veteran to spark the line-up even more).
Boston is losing nothing if they make either trade that can't be repalced immediately.
The Mets mortgage the future...or trade away prospects that would be tradable if they do need that extra cog to get them to the playoffs in mid-season.
by twintown on Jan 23, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
The situation we have now is an excellent case of how hard it is to trade a guy with a no-trade clause. Suppose Santana did not have a no-trade clause. Several teams have said they expressed interest in acquiring him (Rockies, Mariners, Reds, etc.) but his agent has basically told them that his client would not approve a trade to those teams. And the teams his client would approve a trade to (Red Sox, Yankees, Mets) are required to sign a six-year $120 million extension prior to his approving the trade.
Santana is in control of this situation, and he's left Bill Smith with almost no wiggle room, "Take what you can get from one of those teams or I walk at the end of the year." I don't even think resigning with the Twins is an option anymore. Santana clearly wants to go to a big spending winner so he can get rings. He has said he doesn't have confidence that this franchise will get to that level. So he's prepared to bide his time and wait for next offseason, when he'll sign with the Mets for 6 years and $140 million.
I've said it before, under the circumstances, Smith should just take Crisp, Lester, Lowrie and Masterson and get ready for Spring Training. Lowrie and Masterson are better than any pair of draft picks they could get. And Lester and Crisp will help them in the short term.
by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude
Anyway, I think the scenario you've laid out is the most realistic interpretation of what's happening behind the scenes. And if this truly is the way things are going down, then I'm disappointed, because there were times over the last year where the Twins could have been in a better position to do...well...anything. Whether that means signing Johan to an extension last spring or trading him when they traded Castillo. Right now there's always a chance that he ends up here to start the year but finishes elsewhere, but I have a hard time believing the Twins could get more then than they could get now. If that's the case, I want him traded before the year to get an early chance to see what our new players bring to the club.
And in the right now, if teams are this hesitant to ball up and make a move, then the longer Smith waits the more jeopardy he puts the organization into by holding out. You clearly believe that the best offer is on the table. Is that what Smith believes?
The only other way I see him thinking, is that he's convinced that the current offers won't be pulled by spring training. At that point, if nobody steps up, then maybe he takes whichever one of those offers he likes the most. It just kills me that the Twins could be undersold for one of the largest commodities in the game.
by Jesse on Jan 23, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is a chance
Santana is a microcosm of Ryan's tenure. He got him for nothing. And his conservative ways painted Smith into a corner to the point where they won't get much for him either.
Actually, I think they'll still get something for him. I'm higher on the Red Sox offer than most. I think Lowrie will be a star. And Lester will be a #3 starter for a number of years. Masterson reminds me a lot of Silva, except without being such a head case. And Crisp is a decent stop gap until one of the several lefty hitting CF prospects is ready.
It isn't what people might hope to get. You think the best pitcher in the game at the prime of his career would get the best bounty ever for a pitcher. But the no-trade clause basically scuttles that. Eric Bedard, whom I peg as a #2 starter on a good team and nowhere near Santana, will get more in trade than Santana because everyone can bid on him.
by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
I'm much higher on Lester and Lowrie than most I guess. I agree with you on Lowrie and I think Lester can be a solid #2.
What's also something to think about is the fact that the 2008 FA class looks to be quite good, at least where we sit today, so with all that extra Johan money, we might just be able to spend a good chunk next offseason. Not the Twins' way, I know. But with Bill Smith, one can always hope.
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with CMath
So, the value of Santana is measured against the downside risk and teams are saying, "Why pay twice?"
They likely can bid on him next year while keeping the jewels of their system intact.
But, I would hope the Yanks get a healthy fine for tampering when Hank said "We really want him". That's a rookie mistake that deserves more than a slap on the wrist.
by Old Twins Cap on Jan 23, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does he want to be here?
by Burntside on Jan 23, 2008 11:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm taking my ball and going home
If the writers were working in hollywood, it would be a script worthy of them.
by caluofmn on Jan 23, 2008 11:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Do you really believe the Twins can contend?
I think the Twins can be competitive with Santana, but they won't contend just yet. And it will be harder to contend next year and in years to come if they just get draft picks for Santana. Whereas, if they play their cards right in a Santana trade, I think they can contend for a wild card as early as next year and a division in 2010.
by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we can contend..
In fact, I was just running through some projections with someone else via method very similar to PECOTA, with very conservative predictions for everyone and including an extremely low line for Pridie (ie if we get an upgrade in CF, we're even better) and you know what it came out with?
92-70 for this team next year.
Personally, I'd peg us for around 90 with a ceiling of 95-97 if everything breaks right, but still, I think that's accurate. I say hell yes we can compete this year.
by djskilbr on Jan 23, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather the twins were good for 7 years
I'd rather my team was good and fighting to make the playoffs each of the next 7 years, (sometimes making, sometimes missing) than I would that they won a world series, or even two, but weren't in the playoff hunt the other years. I think this is the difference between signing and not signing Santana.
I think that trading Santana allows them to keep playing the game of having as many good young players at once, who are at reasonable prices, so they can continue to be good, but never the best. Plus, I don't think there is anyway to make us the best bet for the world series this year or next year, even if Pohlad offered up a $100m payroll each year.
by snolls on Jan 23, 2008 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I've gone back and forth on this
ASSUMING SANTANA IS TRADED - PITCHING
If Liriano (age 24) comes back and is even close to his '06 form, that will make a huge difference. If Baker (26) continues to improve, he's a credible #2 starter.
After those two, the rotation is very iffy, with these guys likely competing for the final 2-3 spots -
Bonser (26)
Slowey (23)
Blackburn (25)
Bass (26)
Perkins (24)
Day (29)
Of course, a Santana trade could yield one or more pitchers that jump right into the rotation.
Liriano and Perkins are the only lefties in this group.
ASSUMING SANTANA IS TRADED - HITTING/POSITION PLAYERS
C Joe Mauer LOCK
1B Justin Morneau LOCK
2B Brendan Harris ???
SS Adam Everett ???
3B Mike Lamb ???
LF Delmon YounG PROBABLE
CF Jason Pridie ???
RF Michael Cuddyer PROBABLE
DH Craig Monroe/Jason Kubel/Garrett Jones ???
The ??? refer to less-than-ideal candidates and/or positions that may have a different starter obtained in a trade for Santana.
Personally, I'd like to see the Twins move Santana ASAP and get some focus on their 2008 lineup. Ideally, they'd get at least 1 SP for the 2008 rotation and at least 2 everyday position players. It's hard to say whether waiting longer to do a deal is advantageous to the Twins.
As far as the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox go, I think the NY teams need Santana more than Boston. The Red Sox rotation (Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Wakefield, Buchholz, Lester) is already solid, although Lester is the only southpaw in the bunch.
by MilwGonzo on Jan 23, 2008 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Paying for Johan
He wants 7 years...maybe he knows something about his arm that we don't. But still, if healthy and pitching well for 7 years, he could easily go another 4-5...bigger or smaller contract? Well, probably on par...although $20 million will be small come 2015.
Why a team would trade prospects for him NOW! You get Johan. Today. Now. Sign him for something reasonable that fits into your own revenue stream. Come the end of 2008 a steady stream of teams will line up for Johan's services. 7-year contract be damned if someone says to Johan -- I want you for 2-3 years and $100 million.
But how much do you offer? If Johan costs you $150 million to be a trading partner with the Twins, but might cost you $200+ if you wait for free agency...how many players are too much.
THE YANKEES. Offering a potential "Ace" that the Twins could control for 4-6 years. Hey, if the guy is mad that he leaves New York (remember Eric "wanted to be a Yankee" Milton and his tattoo), all he has to do is perform brilliantly and the Yankees can have him back when he reaches free agency. You get a center fielder that you control for 3-5 years that is more than adequate, and leaves room for your own young guys to develop and move into the mix. You get a couple of prospects that you worry about protecting in 1-2 years on the 40-man with ALL your other prospects that come of age.
THE RED SOX. Man, they are offering spare parts. Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson. Does a fifth player in this line-up help? Lester starts 2008 as #7 in the rotation, or a long-lefty out of the bullpen. Come 2009, he would be the #5 starter. The Red Sox have an opportunity to replace him with a #1 starter, and if you truly need a #5 starter in 2009, I'm sure they are out there (always bring back Wakefield). Crisp is adequate for a couple of seasons and no loss to the Red Sox, who would actually save money losing him so Ellsbury could shine or die in center. Lowrie is an infielder that either needs a major league job or will be gone from the system. Masterson and anyone else, again, becomes a player you have to think about protecting in a season or two or lose in the Rule 5 or just outright lose.
If Ellsbury is put into the deal instead of Crisp, the Twins still get a starting centerfielder -- albeit unproven -- and if he shines you have him for 5-6 years and, quite frankly, with Young in Left you pretty much guarantee that every outfielder you currently have in the farm system except for one -- you don't need anymore. Parlemee, Benson, Revere, all those Elizabethton guys...unless you replace Cuddyer they all will be in their mid-20s when you need a couple more outfielders. Not to mention you don't really need Span/Martin/Roberts except for fourth outfielder duties, and how hard is it to find a Dustin Mohr, Jason Tyner, Lew Ford, Chad Allen, Mike Restovich, Mike Ryan if you truly wanted one instead of Jason Pridie.
If Ellsbury comes along with Lester, Lowrie and Masterson (and maybe another), the Red Sox still aren't hurting at all playing Crisp for another season or two.
I see no logic from the Red Sox. To get Santana they can overpay and not hurt the current team, future team, or minor league system.
THE METS. Man, if you get Gomez and Martinez, then you can really kiss all the Twins outfield prospects goodbye. Granted, who says Gomez or Martinez will be better than Parmelee, Benson, Revere or any others. The Twins also want to rape the Mets system of three young pitchers, to go with the 20 or so they currently have in the wings...two of the pitchers having to remain on the 40-man roster immediately (I believe) although minor league options do exist. Again, as with any prospects, you have to find a place for them on the organization pecking chart or eventually they have to go elsewhere via trade or outright loss. Gomez MAY have promise. Martinez has a BIG upside...but the Mets losing him now means they just have to sign some other hot-young (maybe older than 19) outfielder in the draft and they have an instant replacement. The pitchers offered can be replaced by drafting right, or Mulvey and Humber can be replaced by some mid-level free agent signings. Yes, the Mets lose DEVELOPED prospects, but everyone is replacable. They get Santana for up to 7 years, still have some money to pay for players like Kenny Loften in center if they wish. They still have a pretty young nucleus offensively, but the players they would trade will either be tradable soon (Humber, Mulvey), draft replaceable (Guerra, Martinez). It's a hit to their system, but they could win today rather than dream of tomorrows.
The downside in all of this is that the Twins CAN'T keep their own free agents (except probably Mauer). Will Morneau be next when he demands $12 million in arbitration? If Cuddyer can't sign a reasonable long-term extension (and what is reasonable in Twins language is often cheap when talking about baseball payroll in general). Will the life of ALL future Twins extend a max of 4-5 years. Of course, not many players play 4-5 years. But...........
I'm sure Bill Smith and company have organizational charts laid out that show where their prospects and the team will be in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. Who is up for Rule 5, who becomes free agents, who has arbitration on the horizon, how much Player A and B might cost the organization.
I'm sure there are big numbers after each year on how much (NOT) to spend. Do the Twins gamble with the fans, live off a new stadium being incentive enough for fans to come to a game (they already have seating prices planned, it seems, so they salivate over the income coming in, the extra 50-cents they will be getting for a hot dog and a buck more for a beer, I suppose). Adding up the potential Ad revenue has them jumping up-and-down with glee. I'm sure there's a smile over any savings they can do from payroll for not only 2008, but also 2009, when the 50-52% drops down to 35-40% maybe?
No deal for Santana will be perfect. The best players you get in the deal may pull up injured, be moody, or just not produce. Santana himself may pull up lame and have to sit 1-2 high-paid seasons recovering from going under the knife to stay at his gloriest best...or he may pitch for 12 more years winning 200+ games in the process (whew!).
Gonna miss you, Johan!
by twintown on Jan 23, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good discussion
- As much as I would love for Santana to stay a twin, I am not sure giving him $140,000,000 is good for the future of the team. As has been noted GMs cant help themselves but give these contracts but they often end up hurting the team in the long run. The Yankees may be able to handle it, but I think it could restrict the Twins too severely. I want the Twins to be competitive over the long haul and I don't know if signing Santana to that kind of money will help that. Now I don't know, but I worry.
- There is an option D - Keep him and trade him during the season next year to a team needing him for a playoff run.
- Whatever happens I do know that if Santana is in a Twins uniform to start the '08 season I will savor each and every start.
by dperl99 on Jan 23, 2008 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
extension
Also, I guess I'm not in the camp that feels these offers are terrible (granted, the Mets' might be short if they don't chip in F-Mart). Again, if you look at the history of Ace trades, I think what's been offered to the Twins (that we know about, at least) equates rather well to similar deals in the past, particularly given Santana's contract desires.
by jianfu on Jan 23, 2008 1:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think
I'm afraid Santana's current demands probably ARE the compromise. He would almost definitely make a good deal more than the 6 year, 120 mil extension he's looking for when he goes to the free market in a year. The offer he made does give us credit for the decreased risk for him. So that big offer we probably can't meet probably IS the compromise...
by AdamOnFirst on Jan 24, 2008 12:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Johan the Great
* WHIP (walks + hits/IP) - Johan ranks 16th All-Time in this category, but 2nd All-Time (to the great Pedro Martinez) since the 1930s.
* ERA+ (the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark) to that of the pitcher) -- Johan ranks 14th All-Time (Pedro again first here).
* Strkeouts/9IP - Johan ranks 5th All-Time (behind Randy Johnson, Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez and some guy named Nolan Ryan).
* Cy Young Award Shares - Johan 10th All-Time (at age 28!)
* Strikeout to Walk Ratio - 6th All-Time
Other than ERA+ and Cy Young Award Shares, it's worth noting that none of the other statistics are adjusted for era, so Johan is putting up these numbers in a strong offensive era -- and in the American League Central where they've had some pretty fine offenses with pretty fine DHs living the past few years.
On top of all this, Johan just gathered his first Gold Glove as well.
What we have here is not merely a great pitcher, but an All-Time great. And coming into his prime years.
In my opinion, given the current marketplace (Zito and Silva contracts come to mind), $20-$25M/year is a great value for the gamble over the next six or so years. But the sad reality is that, despite the fact that we have the richest owner in baseball and that guys in hard hats are outside pouring cement for a new stadium, the Twins aren't going to pony up.
But in the interest of killing time in mid-January trying to find something baseball related to talk about, let's just pretend they did. How could this year shake out?
Our moves at SS and 3B are less than inspiring, but there's sufficient evidence that shows Adam Everett is probably the best defensive SS of the past ten years. This is not without value.
A Mike Lamb/Buscher/Harris combo at 3B looks like Mike Schmidt compared to our guy Nicky Ballgame over there last year.
Our young starting pitchers each have breakout potential and look nice sitting in a rotation behind the great Johan.
Catcher, 1B, both corners of the OF and DH (assuming Kubel/Monroe platoon) appear to be set.
So that leaves CF. This one seems easy to me in this scenario. Boston is screaming for someone to take Coco Crisp from them to clear room for Jacoby Ellsbury. My guess is he could be had for a mid- to low- level minor league prospect. Yes, Coco has been less than inspiring, but given his great defense and age, he's a great bet to bounce out of it. In fact, here's a clip from Curt Schilling's blog about Coco:
People would claim that the Coco didn't live up to the potential he was supposed to coming from Cleveland. Coming out of Cleveland he was a 300 30 double 15 hr 15-20 steal guy who played ridiculous CF. In my opinion he's more apt to be closer to that guy over the next few years than the guy who was hurt in 06 and just never got on track this year. That being said he was still an impact player for us. His CF defense won games this year.
For the price and the salary, Coco seems like a great fit on the Twins.
Potential Lineup:
1. Coco Crisp - CF (I know, I know)
2. Brendan Harris - 2B
3. Joe Mauer - C
4. Michael Cuddyer - RF/LF
5. Justin Morneau - 1B
6. Delmon Young - LF/RF
7. Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe - DH
8. Mike Lamb - 3B
9. Adam Everett - SS
SP1 - Johan Santana
SP2 - Francisco Liriano
SP3 - Scott Baker
SP4 - Boof Bonser
SP5 - Kevin Slowey
This is a team that could win and has all kind of places where players could break out into stars.
by sportsvulture on Jan 24, 2008 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Church
The Twins search in trading for Johan is a centerfielder, and probably one that is capable of leading off the batting order. Otherwise, the Twins pickings are pretty slim.
Rather than Church, I would just as soon see Gomez back in (with Martinez) and allow Gomez to start at AAA and bring in Lofton.
Hey, anyone know what's up with Mike Sweeney?
by twintown on Jan 24, 2008 3:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree we can compete...
by djskilbr on Jan 24, 2008 7:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hate to be a an ice bath
by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree 90 wins won't...
That 90 wins doesn't assume a lot of things, like a big year from any of Young/Kubel/Liriano/the young pitchers. Or anything above average from Cuddyer/Mauer/Morneau/Lamb/Harris.
If any of those happen, we could easily get as high as 95 wins or something. I think around 92 wins this year wins the WC. We'll see.
I'm not arguing your point, CMath. I see both sides. I just think that we're not nearly as bad of a team this year, with or without Johan, as so many people seem to assume. If you run the numbers, we're still one of the top 5-6 teams in the league, which is squarely in contention.
by djskilbr on Jan 24, 2008 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Anytime you add a star like Cabrera to the middle of your line-up without giving up any starting players, you're a better team.
I'm not a huge Willis fan, but if he gives the Tigers more than Miller did last year, he's an upgrade by definition. And the thought of a three-game series against Willis, Rogers and Robertson doesn't thrill me, considering that the three best hitters on the team are left handed.
by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2008 10:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
CMath...
But to me, their staff is worse. Jones is ANOTHER year older, Zumaya is out at LEAST half the year, and I wouldn't doubt if they're cautious and he sits out the season with an arm like his, and they have NO depth now with Miller/Jurjens gone.
And their offense I don't think is going to be much better either. They were incredibly lucky with injuries last year; I don't see that happening again. Nor do I see Mags putting up close to the numbers he did last year OR Granderson putting up quite the numbers he did.
Miggy is a stud, but I'm not sure he counters all of the above. Maybe marginally.
by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 3:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's possible...
That's the other thing. He's thinned their farm so much over this offseason that they have less flexibility. Really, Porcello's their only "stud" chip now. And I don't see him moving anytime soon.
by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 5:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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