Is any pitcher worth more than 4 years?

by CCTwinsFan on Jan 27, 2008 10:33 PM EST Comment 5 comments

A lot of thought and words have gone into discussion on whether to sign Johan or trade him but I have seen little on the subject of whether ANY team has benefited from signing a pitcher to more than 4 years. I can think of a bunch of horror stories but not one case where the team signing the pitcher got value for the life of the contract either through actual performance or trade value received. I think the Twins don't want to sign Johan to more than a 4 year extention because they don't see the history of that working for the team. I know Johan is Johan but is even he worth more than a 4 year extention? I am not a research guy but have followed the game closely since before Curt Flood brought about this thing called free agency and don't remember a contract of more than 4 years that people agreed was a good deal for the original team in the later years for any pitcher. That is why I think Johan is done as a Twin and as much as I love to watch him pitch, it is probably the smart choice for the Twins.

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That is

That is one thing. I'm not sure about the ratios with 4 year deals, but no 6 or 7 year deal has ever worked out. Every monster pitching deal of that nature has blown up in the team's face, I'm pretty sure.

With hitters, even if they suffer one bad injry, they usually recover and are fine or mostly fine in future years. They can often fight through smaller injuries and still play pretty well. Pitchers can't fight through injuries as well and have a much higher likelihood of injuries damaging them further down the road.

So I dunno. I go back and forth about Santana a bit...

Here's a thing to consider though, some teams DON'T CARE if the last couple years of a long deal, the player bombs. Like the Mets signing Castillo for 4 years. That's a total waste of 12.5 million over the last two years of that deal, but it doesn't matter to them. They get him now, and later, they can absorb that cost.

Can the Twins afford to make a deal, in order to keep a healthy Johan for the next 3, 4, or 5 years that they KNOW will be a waste of 20, 30, or 40 million dollars over the last two or three years? Not to say that I guarantee such a money loss WOULD happen, but past happenings and possibilities are there, so it is a question worth asking.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 27, 2008 10:44 PM EST reply actions

Ya, it depends...

I think there are exceptions to every rule though.

And one of the best pitchers of all-time in his prime who has been completely durable his whole major league career would seem to be one of those exceptions to me.

Just my two cents.

by djskilbr on Jan 27, 2008 10:52 PM EST reply actions

From Yo's perspective, maybe the Twins look good

>> They can often fight through smaller injuries and still play pretty well. Pitchers can't fight through injuries as well and have a much higher likelihood of injuries damaging them further down the road.

First, I'd say the Santana we saw last year was a guy who was fighting through small injuries.

Second, the pressure isn't just on the Twins- or some other team that is willing to trade for Sanatana and offer him a long-term contract.

When Santana walks into spring training he's got to start throwing baseballs. And every baseball he throws might be the one that jeopardizes his career.

You've got a team with Delmon Young and that just signed Cuddyer and Morneau to go along with Mauer's contract.

Maybe as the day when he has to start throwing baseball nears, a Twins' offer starts to look better and better to Yo.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Jan 27, 2008 11:34 PM EST reply actions

Oooh

"First, I'd say the Santana we saw last year was a guy who was fighting through small injuries."

Ooh. La dee dah. I'm not talking about a little blister. I'm talking about guys with bad backs, serious wrist problems, bad knees, poorly healed muscle pulls, etc. Things hitters can push through, and still have an ok year. Putchers have a lower level of tolerance for big injuries, I think.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 28, 2008 1:09 AM EST up reply actions