Open Thread: Discussion Topics
by Jesse on Jan 9, 2008 12:23 PM EST
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PrintI'm bored. Let's talk baseball. Here are some random discussion topics; feel free to post your own in the right-hand column.
- How many games will Mike Lamb start at third base for the Twins in 2008? How productive will he be? At this early juncture, toss out your early predictions for what kind of production you're expecting from our new "full time" third baseman.
- What's the best move Bill Smith has made so far? The easy answer is the Garza/Young swap, but it could be more complicated than the easy answer...so I'm curious what you think. On the flip side, is there something that Bill Smith has done that you're not happy with? Again, not moving Santana is an easy answer, but this too is more complicated than its face value.
- I miss Bat-Girl. Do you miss Bat-Girl? Because I do.
- Come up with a joke about the Oakland A's. No matter how smart it is, it has to be hard for fans to grow accustomed to a player and then see him shipped off...this subjuct should be familiar to Twins fans anyway. For example, in another thread I made a comment to this effect: Growing up in the Oakland farm system puts you in the same cycle as old Greek tragedies...but instead of the gods coming down and killing everyone, Billy Beane just trades you.
- Which remaining free agent would you like to see the Twins land? Is it a realistic scenario?
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Answering my own questions
- I'm hoping for about 140 games, with about 120 starts. Against LHP, hopefully there can be something done about platooning somebody else on occasion. If we get 500 plate appearances, a .280/.340/.470 line I would be more than happy.
- Best move? Not matching the Angels' offer for Hunter. My least favorite move? Swapping Rincon out of the Garza/Young deal wasn't a bad thing, it was probably necessary, I just with the "throw in" would have been somebody else.
- Yes.
- I don't think I can do better than what I already came up with. I thought that was clever.
- Barry Bonds is who I want, and no, it is definitely NOT realistic. Otherwise I wouldn't be opposed to a veteran starting pitcher who actually has something left in the tank.
Answers
- I think he'll start 130 games at third. He'll put up Koskie-like numbers at the plate (.275/.356/.435), but he'll be a liability in the field.
- Setting himself up for the Santana move. I like the Young trade, but it will pale in comparison to the Santana trade, which I expect by mid-January.
- I will risk heresy here, but I don't really miss her. Perhaps it's just a question of taste, but I thought her posts were hit-or-miss. I never really liked Lego-vision, as much as I admire the whimsy of it all. And for every "Lew Ford makes light saber noises when he pees" moment there was a "Dave St. Peter eats babies" moment. There's a fine line between sardonic and cruel. Especially towards the end, she crossed the line into cruel a few too many times for my taste. I stopped visiting her site regularly the last year or so for that reason.
- How many Oakland A's scouts does it take to change a light bulb? All of them. Not that they can't do it alone, but they're so bored they have to help each other change light bulbs. I'm no Bat-Girl. Maybe I'll think of something better later.
- Bartolo Colon. I think he'll be affordable and he's ripe for a Jack Morris-style comeback.
Re: Answers
- It's all about taste, I don't think anyone is "required" to like anybody. And really, it's hard to miss a blogger after 7 or 8 months like you'd miss toothpaste after 7 or 8 months...but I think I miss the creativity. And I also thought lego-vision was pretty humorous. My blogger's heart will always belong to BG.
- So if Colon comes to Minnesota, we go to the World Series and he throws a 10-inning shutout in game seven for the win, does Bartolo garner Hall of Fame consideration?
joke
A: We'll never know. Every time somebody gets close to the top of the ladder, Billy trades him.
Okay, that's lame. I do miss Batgirl.
Batgirl
Posts
2 - Best move was NOT giving Carlos Silva 12 mil a year or whatever the exact absurd number was
3 - Sure
4 - This is just not my element, I stick to more social commentary style humor
5 - How about Kyle Lohse? We could be let down AGAIN by his ineptitude
by umnskibum on Jan 9, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions
Quick Answers
- 125
- His handling of the Santana sitch.
- <sigh>
A: Hey guys, where are you going?
5. Still Koskie.
by TheMattWilke on Jan 9, 2008 2:26 PM EST reply actions
I like this.
- My prediction: Mike Lamb = Mike Pagliarulo.
- Laughing uproariously at Carlos Silva's contract demands.
- "More than anything in the world, Ron."
- OAKLAND A'S JOKES
A: We're not selling jeans here.
-Did you hear about the off-season injury problems in Oakland? Apparently Billy Beane sat down, and Michael Lewis got a broken nose.
-I don't know if you knew this, but Billy Beane is the president of the Bay Area Philharmonic this year. Apparently, everything will stay the same, except they'll be playing only three times in October.
Q: What's the most common phrase in baseball?
A: "Ex-Oakland Athletic".
5. Answers to both questions: The re-animated corpse of Jimmie Foxx. No.
Answers
- 140
- Best Move: Still being able to cut Monroe for only about $600k. Honorable mention: keeping me a busy excited twins fan by dragging out the rumor and insinuation with the Santana deal. Whatever happens can wait to happen as long as there are still discussion threads
- I miss legos. Maybe if she's done blogging she can send me hers.
- Well, the Oakland A's found two guys who were really good at climbing steps in college, and thats the most statistically significant predictor of light bulb changing. Plus, they came cheap because their wrists resemble Calista Flockhart's. If only there was a way to help them "develop the power" to be twist a lightbulb. hmmmmmmmmm.
- So Bonds is definitely my pick. He would hit home runs and bring in revenue. He would also make it easier for me to see out of market games since I don't live in MN. But since Bonds has been picked already, I'll go with Satchell Paige. He'll probably be able to play until he's 175 years old, especially if you give him some Lidocaine and B12 shots. Plus, he might help motivate more young black players since apparently baseball holds no appeal anymore. And, I'm sure Twins management would love to add a veteran starter at a discount since he's had a bad run the last couple of years.
My response...
- I'm with CMath on this one-about 130 games. Macri/Harris/Punto get some limited time there during the year. And yes, I think he'll hit very well.
- The Young move, because it took guts. Also REALLY like the Lamb move. He was the best 3b on the market. I'm just SO happy he didn't go for Pedro Feliz.
- Eh. Indifferent.
- I love the A's and Billy Beane is a god. No jokes here for me.
- Jason Jennings and Mike Cameron. And yes, I think both are realistic IF we keep Johan. Jennings I like potentially better than Colon because I just don't believe in Colon's medical condition. And Cameron is just begging to be signed by us. He's not that much worse than Torii at all, especially when you consider the parks he's played in. He doesn't require a longterm commmitment. And he'll come really cheap. I'm guessing something like $5-7 M max. And sure, he won't be available for 25 games, but that's a perfect window to give Pridie a look and see what we have. I really think with those 2 signings we're a World Series contender. That offense would be pretty sick.
by djskilbr on Jan 9, 2008 2:57 PM EST reply actions
Lead off?
Lineup
Mauer
Young
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel
Lamb
Cameron
Harris
Everett
Versus righties, (using career to date splits), the lineup would have 6 hitters with OPS over .750, plus Young may be able to get to that level as well). Harris and Everett are the other 2.
Versus Lefties (with Redmond and Monroe subbing in)
Harris (career .322/.392/.483 versus lefties, albeit in only about 200 PAs)
Young
Morneau
Cuddyer
Monroe (or Kubel)
Cameron
Lamb
Redmond
Everett
Again, using career to date splits, this would offer 5 players with OPS over .800, plus Young at .789 and Lamb at .747. The team's weakness against lefties could drop off substantially.
Question
It depends
on the inurance company, the player and what the team is willing to pay in premiums. From what I've read, it seems to be fairly common to have a waiting period and a deductible. So if a player were to get hurt, you have to wait say 80 games. Then the insurance company would start paying 75% of the contract, and the remaining 25% becomes the team's deductible.
It isn't cheap, I couldn't find it, but I think I remember reading that the cost of insuring an injury-prone player can be upwards of 30% of the contract amount per year. I did find that the Astros' paid $2.5 million to insure the final year ($16 million) of his contract.
another try at a joke
Getting better?
Answers
- I suspect Lamb will start around 100 games at third base, while starting several more at DH and sitting frequently vs. tough lefties.
- I think the best thing Smith has done is trim the fat -- getting rid of players like Ford, Tyner and Heintz. TR hung onto guys like these far longer than they were useful. Least favorite move is definitely the Everett signing.
- Indifferent. I apppreciated Bat-Girl and respected the rapport she had with her reader-base, but her shtick was never my cup of tea.
- I got nothin'.
- It seems one Tony Batista is still available...
Answers...
- Mike Lamb will start 145 games at third, while finishing the year with a .285AVE, 19 home runs and 78 rbi (hitting from the #7 spot).
- The best deal and the most disappointing is the same deal...the Young trade. I see Young as being one of four excellent hitting young players the Twins have. He will hit around .300Ave this year with 30 home runs and 115 rbi. What made the deal disappointing is Eduardo Morlan, who I believe will be a major league closer in 3-4 years.
- Finally, Jason Kubel will hit around .325Ave this year, with 25 home runs and 90 rbi from the #2 spot in the order.
by roger @ Twinkie Town on Jan 9, 2008 5:42 PM EST reply actions
Wow
I agree with those numbers...
Are you really THAT low on this team?
I've mentioned it before, but with a decent CF (any of Ellsbury/Cameron/Lofton) our offense figures to score over 800 runs and be the best Twins' offense since at least 1996, and one of the top 2 Twins' offenses in the last 25 years.
I think there's plenty of reason for optimism with our new offense.
by djskilbr on Jan 9, 2008 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
As this team stands
Keep in mind
Remember also though...
- An "off" year from Johan.
- A bunch of young pitchers last year as well. Baker did very well eventually, but his full body of work wasn't anything special.
- We didn't have Liriano last year.
- We had big losses in the bullpen injury-wise, including 4 of our very best bullpen pitchers in Perkins/Crain/Neshek/Reyes. Plus an absolutely brutal year from Rincon.
- We had injuries or off years from virtually every key contributor from the team. Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel/Bartlett.
- We had Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, Lew Ford and Rondell White getting a massive amount of at bats.
- We were absolutely brutal in key situations; see Nick Punto, ex. bunting.
- We had Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson pitch a lot of innings.
I just really think 80 wins is about the absolute floor for this team next year, with or without Johan. I'd say our realistic range is from 80 to 97 wins, depending on Johan.
by djskilbr on Jan 10, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
All those things
97 wins would win the AL Central for the Twins, more than likely. But realistically, Detroit is going to win 95+. Cleveland isn't going to be too far behind. The Twins aren't just trying to build off a disappointing 2007, they're also competing in one of (if not THE) most difficult divisions in baseball. The Twins are in a rebuilding phase, and it will be a successful season if we finish above .500. They'll be competetive, but they won't compete for the division, and considering the state of things that's not a bad thing.
Now we just have to trade Johan.
I guess I still don't agree...
Twins: For all the reasons I mention, I think they'll take a big step up this year. 2007 was an aberration to me. I really expect a good year. Our staff was 4th best in the AL last year even with all of our injuries, no Cisco, and an "off" year for Johan. With Johan, I think we best that and have the best staff in the AL, personally. Without him, I still think we could come pretty close to the 4th best staff. I think Silva is easily replaceable. Cisco's better than Garza, so that offsets SOME of Johan if he's gone. And a healthier bullpen/probable improvements from young starters/no Ortiz or Ponson innings make up SOME of the rest. I would still say it would be a top half staff in the AL at the very worst. On offense, as I have stated, I believe we will score over 800 runs this season with a decent CF. And that would also put us in the top half and give us an offense about in line with Cleveland's. Defense should be about the same next year, possibly slightly better depending on our CF and if Lamb can be decent at all. Yes, the Twins won 79 games last year, but I don't think it's that difficult to get to 90 or even 90+ this year with reasonable improvements.
Tigers: Yes, their offense should be really solid and Miggy is huge, but does anyone expect Granderson/Magglio to have seasons that good agains this year? Plus, they have a LOT of aging players on that roster and were pretty lucky injury-wise last year. I don't think they can count on health like that again. In fact, I would almost bank on at least 2-3 of Sheffield/Polanco/Renteria/Maggs/Guillen/Pudge missing some time next year due to DL stints. And then you have their staff, which is incredibly thin if you ask me. Verlander is a stud, no question, and Bonderman, as always, has "promise." But Dontrelle is nothing; he is basically Carlos Silva in the AL, maybe worse. And the rest of the rotation has question marks. Plus they don't have depth in case of injuries there, like they did with Miller/Jurjens. Those are big losses to me. And that's not even factoring in the bullpen, which is as bad as any in the division this year to me. Zumaya is a huge, huge loss that cannot be understated. The Tigers won 88 games last year; I'm not so sure they win more than a couple more than that this year.
Indians: Solid, solid offense, but is it really any better than the Twins this year? I'm not so sure. Pitching has a great 1-2, but there was a lot of use for Carmona/CC last year. Remember the 2005 White Sox? And their bullpen also still has huge question marks. I don't think their staff is any better than ours on the whole, Johan or not. I really don't. And their defense isn't anything special overall either. They had a great year and won 96 games last year, but I'd really be semi-shocked if they won that many again, just due to the use their staff had last year.
I guess I just don't buy the hype that the Indians/Tigers are that special this year. I really think the Twins can be competitive, for the reasons stated above.
by djskilbr on Jan 10, 2008 3:40 AM EST up reply actions
Agree more than disagree
I think the Tigers are potentially extremely dangerous, but as mentioned, they have virtually no depth in case of an injury. And their pitching after Verlander is pretty suspect - Bonderman has been a below average pitcher every year but 1, and has never had an ERA below 4. Who knows about Willis.
And the Indians are also very dangerous, but I predict a decent falloff from Carmona - he increased his innings from about 100 in 2006 to over 230 in 2007.
The Twins staff of Santana, Baker, Slowey, Bonser, and Liriano/Perkins should be approximately equal to what was put up last year, and the pen seems like it should also be comparable to last year.
The offense seems like it could be pretty dramatically upgraded if we can get someone who hits (Cameron or Lofton, or Crisp through a separate trade) to play CF. Lamb >>>> Castillo/Casilla, Harris > Bartlett, and Everett > Punto 2007. Hunter to Young is a bit of a downgrade, but Kubel should be better over the course of the season. And new CF should be a significant upgrade over White/Tyner. The bench now actually has some potential to be useful, and Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer should all be at least around last year's levels if not improved. By my count, that is about 5 areas of offensive upgrades, and 1 area of a downgrade.
by Diggity Dino on Jan 10, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with this
The Twins can compete this year or next, but not both. If they don't compete next year, 2010 is also in danger. Given the choice, I would rather rebuild now for 2009-10 than go for broke in 2008. Many in the Twins organization have expressed the same sentiment, especially relative to 2010 in the new stadium. Of course, they can't come out and announce that they're rebuilding because that will hurt ticket sales in 2008, and and 2009 payroll. But I believe that is how they're leaning.
granderson
That's a very good point about F. Carmona. That's a HUGE leap in IP.
I don't think he'll get better
Johan's good for 15 wins
I was just assuming they would trade Johan because they can't sign him (they're not even negotiating with him) and they have said they don't want him to walk at the end of the year.
blah blah blah ....
- No idea.
- No idea; all we're doing now is guessing. I think he was right to clear out some bench deadwood & the Delmon Young deal is a reasonable gamble.
- Absolutely. No question. Beyond expressing.
- Hard to trash the A's when I fear we are them.
- Are Steinbrenner's bank account & income stream free agents?
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