The Destiny Changers!
by 33MorneauMVP on Oct 1, 2008 5:22 PM EDT
25 comments
Here is a summary of the games the Twins could and should have won, if it werent for a few problems. In August, the Twins sat .5 games back of the White Sox for the division lead. If the Twins had played in August like they had played in July, the Twins would have walked away with this division title but they fell apart.
Twins.
Aug: 17-12 record
Possible win games:
11-6 loss vs. Seattle on Aug. 4th...fault: Perk falls apart in 7th; bullpen management
8-7 loss vs Seattle on Aug. 5th...fault: Baker could not go 6 innings; Guerrier
3-2 loss vs. Oak on Aug. 18...fault: offense couldn't score vs off of Saarloos after Duchscherer left in third inning.
7-5 loss vs Ana on Aug. 23...fault: Defense...6 runs only 3 ER off of Blackburn.
5-3 loss vs. Ana on Aug 24...fault: Bullpen management...Reyes and Crain combine for 1.2 innings and 3 runs.
4-2 loss vs. Seattle on Aug 25...fault: Bullpen management...Nathan blown save...Crain allows 2 runs in 1.1 innings.
3-2 loss vs. Oak on Aug 28...fault: Breslow/Crain gives up winning run throwing .1 innings.
3-2 loss vs Oak on Aug 30...fault: Nathan blows another save.
White Sox.
Aug: 16-12 record
Now, I realize I should give a few breaks in there to the Twins pen (it will fail from time to time so I will take off the Aug 18 game) but all the other games they should and could have won! That would have put the Twins at a 24-5 record! With the White Sox with a 18-10 record (lets say, for they had their share off bullpen gaffes) the Twins would have cruised to a 5.5 game lead in the AL central!
TWINS September record:
11 - 14
Twins should have won many games in here too!:
Sep 2 (Tor) 7-5 loss - Perkins and Bullpen.
Sep 3 (Tor) 5-4 loss - Nathan blows 3rd save of road trip
Sep 6 (Det) 6-4 loss - Bullpen (Reyes and Guerrier give up 3 runs w/o getting an out)
Sep 7 (Det) 7-5 loss - Perkins and Defense
Sep 11 (KC) 3-2 loss - Guerrier
Sep 16 (Cle) 12-9 loss - Guardado and Nathan
Sep 17 (Cle) 6-4 loss - Guerrier surrendered 2 runs (1 ER to Mijares) and got 1 out
Sep 27 (KC) 4-2 loss - Bullpen!
WHITE SOX September record:
11 - 15 (counting Sep 29)
Twins would have had a 19 - 6 record if Gardy had handled the bullpen (or rather sheeps pen) better. I will make allowances and let the Twins lose the Sep 17 game and also the Sep 7 game...that would put the Twins at a 17 - 8 record. White Sox had a 11 - 15 record (lets tack on another 4 games for them in the W column) and they have a 15 - 11 record. Still, the Twins out "win" the Sox in September and the Twins would have built a 7.5 game lead!
Bullpen was the Twins downfall in ALMOST all these games. If the bullpen had held strong the Twins would have been your 2008 Division winners hands down. However, Twins bullpen failed and the Twins failed on themselves too! The Twins should have really been division leaders and there is really no excuse for losing it, especially if they could have had a 7.5 game lead (or 3.5 game lead at the very least!)
All in all though, I am proud for our boys in Blue and Red and am very excited for the 2009 season. It will feature a lot of YOUNG talent and probably some new faces too!
Buckle down for an interesting offseason...I see Bill Smith going out and getting a SS/2B (Hardy) or a 3B (Beltre/other) and probably add one player to the bullpen (think Heaths type). Thank you Twins for an enjoyable season (with its heartbreaks in there too!). Go out and get it next year!
(Please state why for your vote).....
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3rd Base
Go out and Get a Power Hitting 3rd Baseman, Im okay with a Platoon of Punto-Harris at Short, But We need Casey Blake or Joe Crede, Brian Buscher is not the answer at third.
by Tony_O on Oct 1, 2008 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see Neshek and Mijares as being pretty solid next season
I think we need to concentrate on the left side of the infield. Harris/Punto is fine for me, as much as I dislike Punto. So yeah, really if we grab a 3B, that’s it. We’re looking pretty darn good already for next year.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on Oct 1, 2008 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, to address this post
It was enormously frustrating watching/listening to these losses you cite. I had a lot of hope for the Twins in July and even in August, but when we dropped those two games in Anaheim I kind of started to have my doubts about this ball club. Still, we won 88 games and split some key 4-game road series against the Angels and the Rays so I’m proud of this team. If we’d had a better bullpen though, we’d have swept Anaheim and would have had a 90 win season and a ticket to October.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on Oct 1, 2008 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not quite sure of the logic in this post of monumental "ifs"
Definitiely not sure how you can make this statement:
“If the Twins had played in August like they had played in July, the Twins would have walked away with this division title but they fell apart.”
Right before you post these numbers for August:
“Aug: 17-12 record”
I’m no mathmetician, but a .586 winning percentage is pretty good in baseball. Boston won the wild card with a .586 winning percentage. Chicago took the division with a measly .546. Anyway, .586 is hardly “falling apart”
Not sure how Minnesota “could/should” have walked away with an August record of 24-5 (7 extra wins in one month!) while Chicago “could/should” have only a 2 game bump.
What if we just throw out one “if” for Chicago. What if Nick Swisher of 2008 (.219 BA, .332 OBP, .410 slg) had performed like the Nick Swisher of 2007 (.262 .381 .455)? What would that have meant? Two extra wins this season for Chicago? 5? 8?
What if Carlos Quentin hadn’t been hurt the month of September? Would the Twins have swept them at the end?
One thing I can agree with you on, what if Pat Neshek hadn’t been injured for most of the season, and what if the Twins bullpen had done a better job… oops there we go with the “ifs” again… what if Morneau actually played like an MVP, what if Mauer brought some passion and a killer attitude/instinct to his leadership repetoire, what if Delmon Young didn’t hit like a pussy… oops there we go with the “ifs” again…
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 1, 2008 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
montanatwinsfan......
if the Twins did not fall apart in August with their crappy bullpen, they WOULD have had 24 fucking wins. If that is not apparent to you, then you are dumb. Morneau did play like an MVP!!!!! Mauer reclaimed the batting title so your “brought passion and killer attitude/instinct” makes absolutely no sense! Young hit .300/.349/.438 (avg/obp/slg) post all star break so your “hitting like a pussy” has no logic…do you think a .290 avg is bad?! You would get absolutely no hits in the Major leagues in 1000 AB so you should just SHUT UP! I am kinda surprised that you did not mention Gomez in your rant: oh thats right, Gomez hit really well in the second half for you to be able to say anything (sorry I forgot).
Chicago did not throw away games either! They lost because they got outperformed! I gave them a two game boost because there were a few which they could have won. What if Quentin didnt injure himself? What if Neshek and Cuddyer didnt injure themselves? Your logic doesnt fill a thimble! Before saying
What if Carlos Quentin hadn’t been hurt the month of September?
, you must ask yourself this: “Well, what if the Twins didn’t lose Neshek and Cuddyer…the bullpen would not have blown as many games and the Twins would have scored a lot more runs to back their starting pitchers!”
Before you post again, make sure you THINK!!!!!!!
by 33MorneauMVP on Oct 1, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what if...
Adam Everett could use those ears to literally fly around the bases like Dumbo…
Punto concentrated on not getting his jersey dirty and instead ran through first base as fast as he could…
People on these message boards didn’t swear at other people who posted a difference of opinion…
Scotty Ulger learned that the (low probability) possibility of losing Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, or even Michael Cuddyer to an injury doesn’t justify the (slightly higher but still low probability) possibility of scoring that single insurance run on a close call to home where the runner will need to make contact with the catcher to avoid being called out…
What a difference a few ifs could make…
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 1, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take it easy
I’m a little behind hear, but I think you are getting a bit defensive, 33MorneauMVP. It sounds to me like your argument is “We could have won if we had played better, or not gotten unlucky in a couple of situations”, and it sounds like MT-twinsfan is saying “if ifs and buts were candy and nuts….”. I think you are both right. They could have done better, and they didn’t. However, you were rude about it.
Lastly, to be rude in my own way, I think the whole arguments is stupid. It is equivalent to complaining about one bad ref call ruining a season. While the call may have been wrong, there were a million other things that change the course of a season. Basically, I had a lot of fun watching the twins make it interesting. The games were fun, and “meant something”. It is hard to ask for more than that. Why talk about what they could have done. They DID well, and know we can speculate ad-nauseum about what they WILL do, next year.
For me, the fun in sports is watching exciting games, and the perpetual optimism of what could be next year. I have no interest in trying to relive a couple of “almost moments”.
by snolls on Oct 2, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Snolls, I think you have a point that dude could have been a little more polite. I’ll give him that he’s upset about the season ending but you really don’t need to swear at other Twins fans because you’re both dealing with your grief in your own way.
However, I take issue with the other main point of your post, which is basically that “There’s no point in analyzing the past and we should instead just stick to being optimistic about next year.” I’m simplifying your point a little, but not too much I don’t think. I think this is basically “The Company Line,” and the whole point of blogging is to break down what happened into meaningful and defensible analysis. That’s what 33MorneauMVP did. For me, that’s much more fun that just accepting what’s fed to me by Twins Baseball Inc. Not that either way of being a fan is any more effective or meaningful in the long run, but whatevs. Morneau33’s post was totally in bounds and almost identical to Gleeman’s post today, except written before Gleeman.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on Oct 3, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you misinterpreted
I agree Nate. I think that there is value in looking back. I just don’t enjoy the “what could have beens”. Its like hanging out with 20 and 30something ex-athletes, who reminisce about how good they could have been if……..
I’m all about digesting the past, for the purposes of projecting the future and analyzing decisions. That is a lot of fun. Did Span put up numbers that we can expect again? Is Gomez’s year what we should expect, or his august/september? Can we really put out 5 starters under the age of 27 next year, and get 5 ERAs under 4.00?
I’m just saying that I don’t enjoy dissecting whether a couple of plays, or a couple of umps’ calls, or a couple of injuries could have gotten us into the playoffs/world series.
by snolls on Oct 3, 2008 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if Carlos Quentin hadn’t been hurt the month of September? Would the Twins have swept them at the end?
Or rather what if Ozzie hadn’t sent Danks out for the third fatal inning in the Metrodome where he inexplicably gave Gomez pitches he could hit.
by guinness junky on Oct 1, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 33MorneauMVP's point
is just that there were a lot of winnable games that the Twins lost in the late innings in August and September. I don’t think anyone who watched this team could dispute that. It’s especially noticable/painful since the Twins have been pretty good at holding late inning leads throughout this decade.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on Oct 2, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine...
there is probably a similar list of games the Twins should have lost, but won…
by guinness junky on Oct 1, 2008 10:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's baseball.
And that’s why it’s so loved. It’s so unpredictable. You sometimes win when you’re not supposed to, and sometimes lose when you are supposed to win. It’s crazy and paradoxical, but it’s baseball.
It’s extremely easy to go back through a season and rattle off wins that we should have won, but that would be contradicting yourself. If we lost some games that we should have won, then you can imply that we won some games we should have lost, as Guinness Junky said above. You can’t make a list of one without the other. If the Twins won every game they should have won, and also won every game that they were supposed to lose, they would be 163-0.
It’s easy to point fingers and blame a single game or event, but that would be utterly contradictory. But that’s baseball. You gotta love it.
Viking Vigil
http://www.vikingvigil.com
Twins Fix
http://www.twinsfix.com
by Andersklasen on Oct 2, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
163-0 is impossible
because everyone else in the league would necessarily have had to have lost to the Twins and there would be no one to play for a tiebreaker
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on Oct 2, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course. My bad.
It would be 162-0. But if the Twins won every game they should have won, and also won every game that they were supposed to lose, that also implies that every opposing team would then lose.
Going into every game the Twins are either expected to win or expected to lose. If they won all those games they would be 162-0.
Viking Vigil
http://www.vikingvigil.com
Twins Fix
http://www.twinsfix.com
by Andersklasen on Oct 2, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Yeah, but that seattle game where we were up 6 late, that one hurts.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Oct 2, 2008 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we should have probably gone
10-4 at the very least on the road trip but the Twins pen failed.
by 33MorneauMVP on Oct 2, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that series in Anaheim was ours for the sweeping
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on Oct 2, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about the game in Toronto
w/ the error by Pridie, I think we should have won that game but didn’t.
by caluofmn on Oct 3, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't torture yourself
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Oct 2, 2008 3:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You can go back further
There were the meltdowns twice against the BoSox, twice against the Tigers and once against Los Yanquis—all with huge leads. Errors, base-running fiascos and TERRIBLE bullpen management all leading to gut-wrenchintg losses.
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Oct 2, 2008 5:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
PS-A post like this is justified
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Oct 2, 2008 5:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
It really comes down to the bullpen. Had the Twins gotten a solid bullpen arm before the trade deadline it would have helped keep the load off of Guerrier and hopefully he would have been more dependable.
Really I’m not worried about the bullpen next year.
Crain should be better after having another year to recover from his surgery.
It’s hard to predict how Neshek will do but he should at least be dependable on a limited basis.
Guerrier will hopefully be used less and be a better late inning relief option as long as his overuse this year doesn’t lead to injury early next season.
Mijares looks like he could be a stud and obviously isn’t too affected by high pressure situations in the small sample he gave us.
Breslow was great for us and can hopefully keep it up next year.
Then of course there’s Nathan, nuff said about him.
Then there’s the choice between Bonser and Humber. One of them should be moved this offseason if we can get something for them because I believe they’re both out of options next year. There’s a plethora of other relievers at AAA but I kind of doubt the Twins have them in their plans since they didn’t bring any of them up in September. Mulvey possibly but I see them grooming him more as a starter with how he pitched this year.
So to make my point, I’m ok with the bullpen but would definitely like to see us pick up a good SS or 2B. I think the platoon at 3rd is working out pretty good and can carry us for another year until either Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia is ready for the job.
Hmmm, maybe we can trade w/ the mets for David Wright and Jose Reyes we’ll give them hmmm the Beloit Snappers. I’d be down for that.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Oct 2, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Yeah, how about that, letting Chad Bradford go to the Rays instead of grabbing him. (Chad Bradford you ask? The guy who had a 2.40 ERA in 40 innings with the Orioles when he was cut loose, then had a 1.42 ERA in 19 innings with the Rays after they got him for free? That Chad Bradford? Oh, did I mention the Rays first pitched him on Aug 9th, meaning he was out there right before our bullpen really collapsed, but after the writing was on the wall? Yeah, THAT Chad Bradford).
It is the Bradford move, or lack thereof, that is the single most damning indictment of Bill Smith to me.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Oct 3, 2008 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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