Minnesota Twins Prospect #7 (Poll)
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
23 comments
Alright, with the Prospect Run-Off between Wilson Ramos and Jose Mijares being rather close, the decision was made to rank both of them here and then start the poll up again with Prospect #7. Because of this, I have decided to have ten options for the next vote to get a better feel for which prospects should be on the ballot. It becomes increasingly important to leave some comments on your voting and also give me names of other Twins prospects that should be considered at this level. You will see a couple of new names on this ballot that haven't been there and I wouldn't put in this area, but I am seeing that several voters will vote for guys who have "Been There" so we will see how they do.
- Danny Valencia, 3B
- Ben Revere, OF
- Aaron Hicks, OF
- Angel Morales, OF
- Wilson Ramos, C
- Jose Mijares, LH RP
Off the ballot (for this round) - Jeff Manship, Kevin Mulvey
On the ballot - Rob Delaney, Trevor Plouffe (back on), Brian Duensing, Philip Humber, Matt Macri, Chris Parmelee
Again, please vote for the player that you think is the Twins top prospect among those remaining on the ballot. Poll will be up for approximately 24 hours. Please vote, but also discuss your selection and the players available.
Again, if you have any questions or want to do some research on any of the prospects mentioned, one starting point might be http://www.sethspeaks.net/100208.htm. That is my personal Top 10 list, and it has links to all of my top 50 choices.
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Swarzak
I went with Swarzak over Robertson only because of the injury concerns.
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not a Swarzak fan
I said this in the other post, but the two reasons Swarzak’s stock rose after his promotion to Rochester were defense behind him and luck. His FIP actually went up from New Britain to Rocherster (4.47 to 4.54). He just had a BABIP go down by 100 points. I’ve read the scouting reports. He throws hard and has a good curve. But he doesn’t have good FB control or movement and he only has two pitches. I would not rank him in my top 10 based on the probability toat he becomes a reliever (albeit a good one).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 13, 2008 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitches
When I interviewed Josh Whetzel, the play-by-play guy for the Red Wings, he said that he saw FOUR big league pitches from Swarzak. Could be small sample size. Could be the defense behind him. Could mean that he spent a lot of time this season working on two other pitches and another year at AAA could help them out and make him more ready to still be a starter. Having not personally seen many or any of these guys play, all we have to go on are numbers (which we could all have an entire argument on how important they are, particularly in the lower levels) and reports.
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good to hear
Admittedly, my scouting reports are old. I like your explanation that he spent the first half of the season working on stuff in AA, when he had shown a consistent slider and change to go along with his FB and curve, they brought him up and it paid dividends. That’s the story I want to believe. :-)
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 13, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explanation
Admittedly, my explanation is a hope, not really based on anything official. I prefer to belive that than think that he was just whining about being sent back to AA.
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
GB%
The one encouraging number that showed improvement between AA and AAA was the GB, which went from 35 to 44%. Perhaps he was working on a sinker as well.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 13, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I went with Rob Delaney...
…who just could get himself up with the Twins sometime next year. Also thought that Swarzak and to a lesser extent Robertson (only hesistant because of his arm injury) could be good selections as well. I think there are several on the list that could be taken off (Macri, Guerra, Humber, Duensing) who all are in my opinion not deserving of a top 20 spot. A couple players that really should be on the list, IMO, would be Slama, McCardell and Tolleson….really all the AFL guys should be on the list at this point, except maybe for Lahey, who needs to prove that he belongs this fall in Arizona.
by roger13 on Oct 13, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
McCardell...
Should definitely be on here. This is the first someone has mentioned him. I went more with what people were saying about people who are very close or we have actually seen.
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Delaney
I think that Delaney has more potential to be an impact reliever than Hughes does at 3b. Swarzak is a tough read for me. Poor first have in AA great in AAA, drug suspension last year, reports of only 2 pitches….Although he is a good prospect. I have him about even with Robertson just above Manship, Slama, and McCardell
what happened to Deibinson and Tolsini? note I don’t know how to spell their names
by doofus on Oct 13, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tolsini?
I assume you mean Rene Tosoni?
I had him at #15 in my rankings, so I would have no problem putting him on the ballot, along with McCardell.
Romero (Deibinson) I moved down quite a bit this year, but it’s probably not fair… he had two major injuries this season at Beloit. He had knee surgery early and when he came back and started to hit, he broke his leg.
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Swarzak
But I could be swayed to go with Robertson. His injury concerns do frighten me though.
Progress always involves taking risks. You can't steal second base and keep your foot on first. ~ Frederick B. Wilcox
by Joshs Thoughts on Oct 13, 2008 5:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
plus oneith
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
by maxisagod on Oct 13, 2008 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hughes
I wen twith Hughes this time, though I see Swarzak as a good pick too. I don’t think Guerra should go off for quite awhile, he had a poor year this year, is a long way away, and had shoulder issues. Not top ten material right now.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Oct 13, 2008 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
huh?
“had shoulder issues”
When did he have shoulder issues?
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bad rumor
He’s never had shoulder problems. His problems this year were mechanical. The Twins want him to throw less over the top and he had trouble controlling his fastball as a result. He also didn’t have as much movement on it.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 13, 2008 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I stand corrected
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Oct 14, 2008 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seth...
…when you do your “you know what,” you should probably include this Top 50 as alist.
by roger13 on Oct 13, 2008 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Got Blackburned Last Year
Nick wasn’t too enthusiastically embraced as the BA #1 Twins Prospect last year, and while he may not have great long-term upside, he did pitch a hell of a playoff game. Seems like Twins minor league pitcher numbers should be taken with a grain of salt; it seems like guys are asked to work on certain things and ignore their numbers, even the advanced metrics. I just go back to the fact that TR saw something in Mijares that he didn’t see in Delaney, despite better and more numbers. So I went Swarzak.
With the high regard for the young hitters, why not a little more love for some of the young pitchers besides Robertson/Guerra? McCardell for sure. And while I totally trust Seth’s assessment, I would like to bring Osterbrock (or was it Bromberg?) into the discussion. Didn’t one of those guys have some pretty killer SO numbers?
by Han Joelo on Oct 13, 2008 8:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers
Osterbrook was drafted in the 10th round or so this June and pitched at E-Town. 8 Walks and 104 strikeouts in 70+ innings.
McCardell – dominated at Beloit. Bromberg was solid again considering his youth at Beloit. He led the organization in strikeouts.
by SethSpeaks on Oct 13, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blackie vs. Swarzak
Blackburn had a much better FIP at Rochester in 2007 (3.32) than Swarzak had in 2008 (4.54). Blackburn walked a lot fewer batters per nine innings and had a much higher GB%. So I wouldn’t compare them too closely. At Swarzak’s age, Blackburn was in low A ball, so Swarzak has a chance to be much better than Blackburn, but he’s not there yet.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 13, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bromberg
David Bromberg threw 150 innings and had 177 K’s. I think he was the minor league leader in K’s as well. Bromberg could be a future closer for the Twins.
by ahope on Oct 13, 2008 8:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So Comparably
Are Bromberg and Osterbrock’s numbers not as impressive from a pitching standpoint as Morales/Hicks/Ramos/Revere are from the hitting side? Or is it more about their velocity, or the ‘nastiness’ of their breaking balls or something, vis a vie how highly they are regarded? Or are young pitchers significantly downgraded because they are more likely to get hurt, or to become relievers. (If so, Guerra and Robertson should be dropped.)
by Han Joelo on Oct 14, 2008 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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