Jake Peavy; Why the Twins make a good 3rd trade partner
Well, I think we've all heard that Jake Peavy looks like he is going to be traded. I also think that it is becoming painfully obvious that the Braves are a distinct possibility; in fact, in my opinion, they are his most likely destination. Recent reports have talks heating up. I think the Twins should get in on the action. To me it makes all kinds of sense. The Twins have what both the Padres and the Braves need most; young, athletic, talented outfielders, and young, established pitching. We have all of Kubel/Cuddyer/Gomez/Span/Young. And both Perkins and Blackburn. And both the Padres and Braves have what the Twins need most; young, talented infielders, including 3b. The Padres have an extra 3b in Kouzmanoff and Headley. And the Braves have both an extra 3b in Prado, as well as an extra MI in having Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Lillibridge. I think the Twins should pounce. And I think a deal should revolve around a package such as this:
Kevin Kouzmanoff/Yunel Escobar/reliever to the Twins
Delmon Young/Jake Peavy to the Braves
Jordan Schaffer/Glen Perkins/Tommy Hanson/Matt Guerrier/2 other prospects to the Padres
Twins give up: Delmon Young, Glen Perkins, Matt Guerrier, a prospect
Twins get: Yunel Escobar, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and a reliever
Braves give up: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schaffer, Tommy Hanson, another prospect, and a major league reliever
Braves get: Jake Peavy and Delmon Young
Padres give up: Jake Peavy, Kevin Kouzmanoff
Padres get: Jordan Schaffer, Glen Perkins, Tommy Hanson, Matt Guerrier, a prospect from the Twins, and a prospect from the Braves.
Something along those lines would seem to satisfy all parties in my mind.
The teams would end up with (longterm):
Twins:
Span-LF
Escobar-SS
Mauer-C
Morneau-1b
Kouzmanoff-3b
Kubel-DH
Cuddyer-RF
Casilla-2b
Gomez-CF
Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, one of Humber/Mulvey/Swarzak
Braves:
Johnson-2b
Kotchman-1b
Chipper-3b (Prado almost ready)
McCann-C
Young-LF
Francouer-RF (Heyward on the way)
Brandon Jones-CF (Gorkys almost ready)
Lillibridge-SS
Peavy, Jurrjens, Smoltz, Glavine, Reyes/Campillo (with Morton and one of Reyes/Campillo to replace Smoltz/Glavine in 2010)
Padres:
Schaffer-CF
Gerut-RF
Headley-3b
Gonzalez-1b
Hairston-LF
Greene-SS
Antonelli-2b
C-whoever
Young, Hanson, Perkins, FA signing, Haeger
San Diego's team is obviously weakest, but they're the weakest to begin with, and at least their payroll will be drastically reduced and they are young.
Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. But I really think involving the Twins in the Peavy trade process could end up benefitting all 3 teams with what they are looking for most.
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I like the creativity
I don’t know enough about Schaffer or Hansen to understand the value being swapped, but I think you did a good job of matching needs of all of the teams.
Thanks guys...
Schaffer figures to be a solid CF and is just about ready (could probably start this year) but the Braves also have another solid CF from the Renteria deal, Gorkys Hernandez. Hanson is a stud pitching prospect for the Braves. Their deal for Peavy will supposedly start around those 2 prospects.
I really, really wish someone could get to Bill Smith and put this bug in his head. I too think it makes all the sense in the world, just like a Tampa/Twins deal made all kinds of sense for years. The team needs and strengths of the the Braves, Twins, and Padres match up very well.
Three team trades are infrequent,
as they are difficult to do. Expect if this deal were to become a reality, that the Twins would again sign a major league veteran free agent starter in the $3-5mm range. That would enable them to have an insurance policy and someone to start at the beginning of the season while they await one of their high level starters to earn his way to Minneapolis.
ah
Boof and Humber are out of options…I dont see them signing a vet and taking away one or both of their spots
by 33MorneauMVP on Oct 18, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Like I said...
I wouldn’t mind seeing Humber start, but even if he doesn’t (in this scenario), as long as Guerrier is traded this offseason as well (I included him in this proposed package) then I don’t see how Humber or Bonser are out of spots. They’d both be valuable parts in the pen, probably each being “long men.” Under my scenario, I could see the staff shaking up as such:
Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Jennings or other FA vet
Nathan, Neshek, Mijares, Crain, Breslow, Boof, Humber
I don’t think that would be out of the question at all.
Ya....
That’s a possibility I would consider, Roger. Sign someone like Jason Jennings to a 1-year, incentive-laden deal, and let him re-establish himself on the market.
Could be a win-win for both the Twins and him.
OR they could just go with Humber or Mulvey to start the year, with Swarzak waiting in the wings. You don’t need a ‘stud’ 5th starter in my mind.
If the reliever we get is
Heath Bell, I’ll take it. Though as I’ve said before, I think the Twins ownership is too conservative to risk trading Young this year.
I like the idea but...
I like the thinking behind the trade, we definitely need a RH 3B, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt us to pick up some bullpen help, and a young strong-armed SS.
However, I think the proposed outputs on the Twins side are a little much to be giving up. Guerrier is a serviceable, and cheap, reliever that is coming off of his worst half seasons ever. This is leaving him with less value than he is actually worth. Likewise Delmon Young’s stock is probably at an all time low. Considering what the Twins have already given up for him it seems hasty to move him at a time when you would be lucky to get half the talent back that the Twins gave up to get him. Perkins in this puzzle makes a lot of sense to me, as his value isn’t likely to ever to get much higher. He’s young, cheap, lefthanded, and probably will be hard pressed to win 12 games again next year.
So, atleast in my mind we’d be selling low on two thirds of the trade. Which, while we certainly could use the pieces, seems to not be the best return we could get.
Not sure Guerrier has much value
That’s just me, but I don’t see San Diego wanting him. Also, we may be selling a bit low on Young, and I firmly believe Gomez should start 2009 in AAA. Young was pretty much league average this year (after a horrible start). His plate discipline was much better towards the end of the season. I think he could reasonably be above average next year and I’m not sure this trade captures that. I think I’d rather use Perkins/Bonser/prospects to land JJ Hardy (with Crede getting a 1 year deal) or Adrian Beltre then giving up on Young so soon.
by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 20, 2008 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn't be surprisd if they nontender him
He had a horrible year. If it weren’tt for Juan Rincon, I’d say it was easily the worst year of any Twins reliever since Scott Klingenback. It proves that he’s only really good in the long role. But the Twins have a glut of guys who should be better than Guerrier in the long role: Bonser, Humber, Duensing, Mulvey, etc.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think
I think that is a shitty deal for the Twins. Kevin Kouzmanoff has a lot of hype, but at 27, his career .264/.311/.442 line is pretty underwhelming. He plays in Petco and did hit better awy from home this year, but I’m not buying big time on him. Yunel Escobar is pretty good.
But giving up Young AND Perkins AND Guerrier (who is good when his arm isn’t abused) AND a prospect? That’s way over the line for me. I’d THINK about doing it for Young and Perkins alone, but no more.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I think you underrate....
both Kouzmanoff (Petco) and Escobar (young Renteria) greatly, Adam.
And I don’t think we lose really anything going from Perkins to Humber/Swarzak as the 5th starter. And Guerrier is going to have a tough time even making it on the roster, in my opinion. Delmon obviously is a big loss potentially, but we’re getting proven talent at 2 positions of need vs. his question mark at a position where we have a lot of talent to deal with.
This would have worked some years ago...
…but we don’t have the staff to make it worthwhile anymore.
I agree with the Underrating
The Twins are obviously pretty high on Delmon Young and I’m sure they’re about the same on Jason Pirdie, after seeing what they gave up for him.
When the Twins traded Garza and Barlett, they essentially committed to Young. Yes, they had a lot of depth at SP and could afford to trade one of their “If he puts it together, he’ll be great” SPs but this just comes off as a bad trade in my mind.
Span will not develop power. Kubel will not stay healthy. Kouzmanoff is 26? and has been a prospect for 25? years. You’re basically getting your power from Morneau, and thats it. The twins have to think Young will develop, They have to stay true to their original decision.
I think the twins have to stay committed to both Gomez and Young for at least another year.

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