Comparing Jason Bartlett with Brendan Harris in 2008
Towards the end of the 2008 season, I’ve had the perception that Jason Bartlett had a better season than Brendan Harris by far. That view probably came from the Ray’s naming Bartlett their MVP for the season. After examining both players batting numbers next to each other, I am thinking differently. Surprisingly, these two infielders had essentially the same number of plate appearances which allows a great opportunity to compare the two.
|
|
PA |
H |
1B |
2B |
3B |
HR |
R |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
WPA |
|
Jason Bartlett |
494 |
130 |
101 |
25 |
3 |
1 |
48 |
37 |
22 |
69 |
20 |
.286 |
.329 |
.361 |
.690 |
-1.38 |
|
Brendan Harris |
490 |
115 |
76 |
29 |
3 |
7 |
57 |
49 |
39 |
98 |
1 |
.265 |
.327 |
.394 |
.721 |
-.28 |
According to the numbers, it looks like this portion of the Rays-Twins trade was pretty close to what was expected. A short stop with speed and average hitting in exchange for a short stop with some power – obviously not as much as we wanted, but more than Bartlett. Bartlett ended with 20 stolen bases compared to Harris’ 1, while Harris ended with 7 home runs compared to Bartlett’s 1.
What’s interesting is when you look at the numbers, Bartlett had a better average than Harris by .021 points but when you compare their OBP, it’s basically the same. When looking at slugging percentage, Harris had an advantage but not a huge one. Combing OBP and Slug together, which is a strong indicator of how good a hitter is, Harris was better. He even had a better WPA than Bartlett as well.
Another area that surprised me was Harris had more runs than Bartlett – when Bartlett was a starter while Harris ended up being more of a platoon player.
Obviously this analysis doesn’t look at defensive statistics. Bartlett had a great season at short stop defensively, which may tip the favor more towards him having a better year. But overall, their hitting was a lot closer than I was expecting. Brendan Harris isn’t all that bad, and he’s a year younger than Bartlett. Playing Harris another full year or two, especially when he’s in his prime, would be all right. Hitting 10-15 home runs in a year isn’t out of reach for him.
0 recs |
48 comments
|
Comments
But at what position would Harris play?
At 3B, 10-15 homeruns in anemic for a power spot and does he have the defensive range to play short on an every day basis. I think he would make a good utility infielder with a little bit of power. We do need to look elsewhere for an starter at both SS and 3B.
I definitly agree that it is not good for a 3B – but for a short stop it’d be alright. Having him at ss isn’t all that terrible if he can get consistant playing time at one position. He would need to raise that batting average though if he wants to stick. He did hit in the .280’s with Tampa Bay in 2007 which shows he is capable of hitting better.
by hitormiss1414 on Oct 20, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Harris
Harris spent a lot of time at third (where he was a decent platoon partner with Buscher) and second while Bartlett was at short all year, so Bartlett offensive numbers get a boost. Not to mention Harris is a dreadful defender everywhere while Bartlett plays the premium defensive position in the infield with great success. Plus, Harris got to mostly platoon by the end of the year, and I suspect his numbers were buoyed up somewhat by this (though I’m too lazy to check). Factor all that in, and Bartlett was the superior player by a wide margin.
I don’t think there’s any way to cut it other than the Rays side of the trade is looking far stronger for now. Young may break out sometime, but for now, the Rays won every aspect of the trade.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I never really saw Harris’ true position as a third baseman, but instead more as a short short. For a short stop, his numbers would be alright. Harris did play a lot of third base for the Twins in 2008 and you make a valid point. For a third baseman , his numbers are definitly not as good as they should be for that position. If Harris just played short stop, he may be alright.
by hitormiss1414 on Oct 20, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Defense
Bill Smith has been quoted as saying he’s in the market for an everyday shortstop. He would not be in the market for an everyday shortstop if we still had Bartlett around. Why? Because Bartlett is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.
Harris is a good third base platoon player and bench player. But he’s not an everyday shortstop. The Rays clearly won that aspect of the deal.
Right now Young for Garza is looking like a landslide in favor of the Rays. That might change. But I wouldn’t put money on it.
The only part of the trade that the Twins won was Pridie for Morlan.
If the Twins don’t make that trade but make the Santana trade, they would be in a much better position going into the off season. They would have an everyday shortstop and a right/left tandem in the rotation that would be the envy of the league.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Boof
Remember when some of the original rumors had Boof Bonser going for Young? Wow would the Rays have looked stupid and not in the playoffs had that been the truth.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
haha yes I do remember that…that would have been terrible for them.
by hitormiss1414 on Oct 21, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it's too bad the Twins are looking for a SS when they had Bartlett as well
I think at the time people were saying that Young would replace some of the lost power w/ Hunter leaving… I guess that didn’t work out too well.
I’ve been scolded that you don’t judge a trade after one year but I have my doubts that this will ever turn around in the Twins favor. Maybe if the Twins move Young for needs that actually work out.
I like the Harris / Buscher platoon but I don’t know if that could ever been enough for the Twins to be solid at 3B but I’d rather play that hand than give up too much for a rental like Beltre
Yeah, great comparison
Dioneer Navaro is playing in the World Series, Joe Mauer is golfing.
Dan Wheeler is playing in the World Series, Joe Nathan is golfing.
Ben Zobrist is playing in the World Series, Alber Pujols is golfing.
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 21, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
But the question wasn’t about them, was it? Face it, Harris sucks and will be replaced. If he’s not replaced, it’s another notch in Bill Smith’s fail belt.
Harris
He’s a useful bench player, especially on a team that tends to struggle against lefties. So I would hope he stays around for at least another year. But comparing Bartlett with Harris is like comparing apples and oranges. I would always pick the everyday player over the bench player.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yes
He is a useful bench player, but the problem was that he wasn’t brought here as a bench player. Yet another reason that Smith receives a D for his first season.
Smith should not get a D
for his job! Are you kidding me? Smith deserves a B, B+….TR would not have taken the risks that Smith took. Think of it this way, if the Twins got into the WS and won it…would you give Smith a D or a A? You would probably be praising his great moves to the skies! Smith did a really good job in his first year, and although we blame him for not picking up another reliever…as he said, other GMs were trying to take advantage of the “rookie”. As we saw with the Adrian Beltre, Smith was not willing to give up so much talent for him. Now, it could be different…I see the Ms wanting to unload Beltre and the Twins will talk with them….D is unreasonable and quite frankly, I am ashamed that you should give him that rating. Even I, who was a TR hater, never gave him the low ranking of a D!
by 33MorneauMVP on Oct 22, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
F
You’re right, he shouldn’t get a D. I’d give him an F. He made risky moves, but hey, look, they all bombed. He signed more stupid, expensive free agents that didn’t work out, unsurprisingly. He probably rushed Gomez just to prove a point to the fans. It looks like he passed up on a far superior package for Santana than he ended up getting. THe Rays trade looks like a disaster right now. He ignored chances to cheaply shore up our biggest need for free during the season…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I'd give him a C
Maybe a C-. I’d give his off season a D, but I think he did pretty well during the season, making adjustments for his poor free agent signings.
Like I said, I can’t find too much fault with the Santana trade, knowing what we know. If he got a better package from the Sox, we’ll never know. So he was forced to take what he could get from the Mets. And that’s looking pretty good right now. The Rays trade was bad and I don’t think he did one thing right in free agency. But I wouldn’t give a guy an F unless he’s failed at everything. And, under the circumstances, the Santana trade was not a failure.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Partly
I think part of our difference of opinion is how badly we think he’d have to do to deserve the F.
Ok, let’s be fair and say we don’t REALLY know what was on the table for any Santana offers that didn’t happen. Guerra now has mechanical problems, velocity way down, and altogether a lot of huge problems all of a sudden for a guy who we bought as the next big phenom. Gomez was pushed into the majors before he was ready, something I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he did this to try and save face. A general manager shouldn’t do that, and it very well may hurt us in the long run as Gomez is way off any kind of development curve now. Humber is quite meh to me, and Mulvey is good, but not world busting at all. I think a lot of those players were way hyped up by the Mets media machine. Someone said in one of Seth’s vote posts, Guerra is down 5 mph in velocity and 95% in Mets fans hype. So I’ll play along and say we don’t know what he could have gotten elsewhere, but I don’t think the trade looks very good at all right now. If we’re lucky, Gomez will turn out someday and the tune might change.
SO mostly, I think we agree on the offseason really.
I really don’t agree on in season moves though. Most of our big moves were just calling up guys from the minors because we had no other choice then being shocked and thrilled when they played far better than expected. I still think ignoring Chad Bradford on waivers is a totally and completely unforgivable offense. I am very convinced the Twins would have beaten the White Sox outright by a game or two if we’d had Bradford like we should have.
I guess I did like the draft we had though, from a preliminary standpoint. For all the talk about the Twins growing from within, we really never drafted very well, so maybe he’ll improve that aspect of the franchise.
And just to prove I’m not just being negative, I think Gardenhire did a lot of great things this year, and I’ve always hated Gardy. He abused the hell out of our bullpen, over babied our starters, and I sure wish he’d have tried to figure out how to keep Mauer hitting second (though with Cuddyer out, he kind of had to play the hand dealt there) but he finally really jut trusted a lot of his young players and he never gave Monroe way too much playing time as I thought he would. So Gardy gets maybe a B- or B.
I guess I’ll compromise and give Bill Smith a D- with much of the grade (aka, the future of the players in his two big trades) an incomplete with later possibility for revision.
PS: He DID sign Morneau, which is a generally good thing, even though he may have over payed….
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
It looks like vs. he did
It looks like he passed up on a far superior package for Santana than he ended up getting….wtf? So, you are assuming that he did pass up on a better package. But DID he? We dont know if he did or not. According to the sources I heard, we would only have gotten one of the “good/decent” players (Ellsbury, Lester, Bucholz) plus one of either Masterson or Lowrie. Two players for one superstar? Not in my book.
In the trade with the Mets, Smith acquired Gomez (a Good CF with GREAT potential), Humber (back of the rotation, long relief GOOD pitcher), Mulvey (Good control relief pitcher) and Guerra (who is projected to be BETTER than Santana). I wish people would think about these things before spouting. 4 high potential players for one superstar…or…2 good players with decent potential for one superstar. HMMM….I think I will order the 4 for the price of one….
by 33MorneauMVP on Oct 22, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Lowrie and Lester
I think Lowrie and Lester are both better than any of the four we got from the Mets.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Lester yes, Lowrie no
Lester was the top prize. If he indeed was offered with Lowrie and Masterson, that would have been the best package, because Lester is a decent stand-in for Santana straight up. But Lowrie is just OK. He’s a good hitter and base runner, but I like his defense at short about as much as I like Harris’s. Unlike Harris, though, Lowrie’s arm is well below average.
To respond to your critique of the players we got, I disagree on your assessment of Gomez, Humber and Guerra. Starting with Guerra, he only has mechanical issues because the Twins are radically changing his mechanics. I am withholding judgment on him until we see the result of the adjustments. Anytime a kid relearns how to throw, it takes a year or so to start reaping the rewards.
Humber was the best pitcher in the Twins minor-league system in the second half of the season. I think he can be as good as Masterson if used correctly. I see him as an emerging reliever.
Gomez is the most controversial player the Twins have had in recent memory. Those of us who watch every pitch of every game saw a lot of development in him this year. And I for one think much of that development would not have happened in AAA, where few pitchers control the slider well. From a metrics perspective, it’s hard to see that development, other than pitches seen. So I can see your perspective. But I disagree. And I wouldn’t blame Smith for insisting on keeping him out of spring training. He beat out Span fair and square and that was Gardy’s call, not Smith’s. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theory you cite. Gomez had a great spring and started out very fast. Again, that was Gardy’s call. If Smith had intervened, you would think Humber would have made it as well because he too had a good spring. But he got beat out for a spot.
As for promoting players because they had no choice: They could have been stubborn and held onto veterans like Monroe. But they were aggressive in promotions and that largely saved the season. I can’t criticize moves that were both aggressive and correct.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Lowrie's D and Gomez
I haven’t really seen Lowrie play much D, so I guess I can’t really argue that point one way or another. For what it’s worth, defensive stats, which I’m still hesitant to trust, as a mixed bag on him.
I just don’t see Humber as being Masterson’s equal objectively (not that it’s impossible he’ll become so). Humber hasn’t put up an ERA below since 2006 in short stints at A and AA ball. That was his second trip to both levels as an ex-college player. Basically, if he hadn’t excelled at that point, it would likely have been devastating to his position in the future plans of the organization. Masterson has achieved similar, perhaps slightly better, numbers at similar levels, but done so about two years younger than Humber. Masterson (who, again, has moved effectively and aggressively up the levels) actually has almost identical peripheral numbers for his minor league career to Humber (who spent more time and older years in the minors), although Masterson’s BB/9 is over 20% lower and his H/9 is slightly lower as well. The big exception to this is in HR/9. Masterson is a powerful sinkerballer, a recipe for major league success, as demonstrated by his excellent .35 HR/9 in the minors. Humber’s HR/9 is an already subpar 1.18. Most pitchers see this number jump only they hit the bigs, Humber is a dangerous candidate for this. Not that I’m saying Humber is bad, I think he could make a good long reliever. I just think that objectively looking at their records of accomplishment it’s difficult for me to say Masterson is not the better prospect than Humber.
I watched most of the Twins games this year as well, and I definitely disagree on your Gomez point. It’s well publicized here how I’ve felt about that, but I still think that you have to learn to walk before you can run, and Carlos Gomez came into the major leagues crawling. You can rise up under pressure, but you need the tools to not get crushed, and I don’t think Gomez ever got quite enough time to gain that. Roster decisions are always final with the GM, and not the manager, Gardy’s been clear about that in the past. I don’t think it’s a big conspiracy to say Smith wanted to show some immediate gain from the Santana trade. It is a justifiable desire. Tickets sold mean more money for players in the future, and an unhappy fan base wont buy many tickets. I think that was one of many reasons Gomez was rushed.
You’ll note I never criticized their moves of bringing other young guys up. Those moves are different though because A> They had little choice, Span, for example, came up because Cuddyer got hurt, and there wasn’t anyone else to come up. It is great that it worked out, but it wasn’t some great clever choice by anyone, it was just the only real card to play, and B> The guys we brought up had shown that they had learned enough in the minors to at least perhaps be ready for a try at the big show. I don’t think Gomez ever showed that and he didn’t change my mind all year.
I still like Carlos Gomez and I really hope he can learn to not be a terrible hitter someday soon, but I think the Twins have lowered the chances of that being the eventual outcome with how they’ve managed his career (the Mets are not innocent of this either, with their over aggressive treatment of him in their own system).
It’s kind of a silly argument, because it’s arguing about how to view the past, but that’s where I stand on it.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
A few nits
At this point, we agree on most stuff. But there are a few things in there I disagree with.
I think you have to take Humber’s TJ surgery into account in his numbers. I think he was rushed back from it and he struggled to regain form until the second half of 2008. When you come back from not throwing for a year, your mechanics can get out of whack. It seems Rick Knapp and Stu Cliborn got him on the right track. And I look for really good things from here on out. Maybe he won’t be as good as Masterson, but he has the ability to be that good, IMHO.
Some of the moves the Twins made in season were controversial. * The Twins called up Alexi Casilla when he was hitting .200 in AAA and they showed that scouting sometimes trumps numbers.
- They acquired Craig Breslow off waivers when nobody knew much about him except Smith and Rob Antony and he was a huge lift for a beleaguered bullpen.
- They called up Randy Ruiz when they could have just stuck with Craig Monroe. This helped them win a few ballgames down the stretch.
*And they called up Jose Mijares when only Terry Ryan and I thought he should get the call over several more seasoned lefties like Mariano Gomez and Ricky Barrett.
Finally, I think Gomez’s difficulties were primarily mental. He was just putting too much pressure on himself. So the Twins released some pressure by making him the #9 hitter, where he hit 286/.328/ .400 /.728. If he had continued to struggle in the nine hole, then a trip to Rochester was the next course of action. But he responded. That line is plenty good for a number nine hitter playing excellent center field defense.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Never said better
I said he’d be a decent stand-in for Santana. And he throws harder than 85. When I saw him, we was throwing 90 with a slider at 85 and a change-up in the upper 70s. With good control, that will get it done from the left side.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I thought you meant Lester
Yes, Guerra was throwing 86-88 this year. Suffice it to say he’s got a long way to go.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I honestly don’t see this as a bad comparison. Harris came to the Twins as a middle infielder, so I believe it was justified to compare the two. And looking at the offensive numbers, I was rather suprised that Harris may have been better than Bartlett. Obviously Bartlett is better than Harris defensively though.
by hitormiss1414 on Oct 22, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
One defensive note
that certainly falls in Bartlett’s favor is that the Rays were the best team in baseball this year in turning balls in play into outs. The Twins were below average. There was a more than 2% difference between the teams defensive efficiency, and this was one of the Twins hidden weaknesses this season.
The Twins defensive efficiency was essentially unchanged from 2007, whereas the Rays went from (literally) worst to first in this category.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 21, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions
It's an accurate comparison
Your assessment is right on.
Twins’ fans wouldn’t even know who Jason Bartlett was if he hadn’t worn a Twins’ uniform. He’s a mediocre player who can’t stay healthy and who has probably seen his best days – which weren’t too damned good. His one notable asset is his speed. Injuries tend to rob guys of that as they approach 30.
The post-season to this point has been Bartlett’s career in a nutshell. He made two errors, both on routine plays, one that negated his one post-season RBI (he drove himself in on what has become for him a rare home run – it was off a curve that was so bad that I mentally had hit it out of the park as it was en route to the plate before Bartlett had a chance to swing. The home run for Bartlett? The blind squirrel/acorn adage.)
One error came on a terrible, unforced throw, the other on a four-hopper that he played from his heels. He could have charged it easily. Bartlett was always an equal-opportunity error maker. Some guys boot it and some guys throw it badly, Bartlett plays it right down the middle, giving us a little of each.
He stranded 16 runners in the ALDS and ALCS in exchange for his sole RBI.
Offensively, Harris is his superior. Bartlett’s few post-season hits were actually for some extra bases, but he has really become a singles hitter. He does have nice right-field gap power, but he doesn’t go that way – or smart pitchers just don’t pitch him to allow that much – anymore.
Bartlett was not the Rays’ MVP. Longoria was. But the beat writers gave him the ROY nod, so Bartlett got the MVP. It’s kind of a joke that someone who played in so few games was given the MVP. He had only 125 starts, and three other games as a sub. That’s a real slap in the face to the guys who answered the bell 150 or more times.
As for Harris, he’s got his merits as a fielder. He was certainly better as a third baseman than Buscher. Buscher’s fielding will keep him out of the lineup in the future unless he makes some great strides. There were at least a half-dozen Twins games this year where Harris made a play at third that was challenging and came at an important time, and Buscher could not have made any of those. Buscher has poor footwork, doesn’t charge balls well, and now and then does an odd glove-to-hand exchange before the throw that makes you think that he just feels uncomfortable over there.
Thank you. You made some excellent points. Bartlett has not played that well in the post-season, and it’s becoming EVEN more shocking that they would name him the team MVP.
I also didn’t know that Bartlett straned that many runners so far in the post season – that is not good.
by hitormiss1414 on Oct 23, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
they really only gave bartlett the MVP since his defense made such a difference
otherwise evan longoria or james shields wouldve been the hands down favorite for their team MVP
also bartlett might not even be the rays starter at some point next year, since reid brignac is almost as good at defense and much better with the bat
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
I guess that makes Nick Punto the Twins' MVP.
Bartlett’s a no-hit infielder. Nick Punto had a better year. He’s older than Bartlett, can field, and misses plenty of games.
Bartlett’s OPS+ was never much to write home about and has been in a decline for three seasons. Brendan Harris is a year younger, has a higher career OPS+ and even with the slight decline in that number this past season he’s way ahead of Bartlett.
It will come down to being a Garza for Young/Harris deal at the level of who was a big-leaguer at the time of trade. The Rays probably won’t have to do much to win the deal between the minor leaguers. Jason Pridie’s SO total was atrocious at AAA last season, which has unfortunately been his pattern. At age 25, with little power, it’s hard to imagine his concept of the strike zone will improve, and that will keep him from a starting job in the big leagues. He’s unlikely to ever be in anyone’s plans beyond a fourth outfielder, tops.
Agree to disagree
Defense is the hardest thing to argue about. So I don’t expect you to agree with me. But I think Bartlett is a much better shortstop than Harris defensively. When the Tampa media voted for Bartlett as MVP, it was not because of his offense. It was because the Rays allowed 200 fewer runs in 2008 than 2007, and presumably the shortstop had something to do with it. How much? Of course, Tampa pitching is better, but the guy who started games 1 of the World Series was around last year. Here is howhe did with Harris and Bartlett respectively:
Kazmir 2007: BABIP
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Crap hit the wrong key
Kazmir 2007: BABIP: .339 ERA: 3.48 FIP 3.52
Kazmir 2008: BABIP .271 ERA 3.48 FIP 4.41
Even though Kazmir was a much worse pitcher in 2008, he still allowed the same rate of earned runs because many more balls in play were converted to outs behind him than last year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Because every ball put in play against Kazmir went to the shortstop, right?
It had nothing to do with also having better defensive players at 4 of the other 7 defensive positions (2B, 3B, CF, RF, fyi) at all, right?
Check out Goal Line Blitz, a fun web-based American footbal MMORPG
http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=2882412
No, but the shortstop caught many of those balls
Short gets the most action, especially with a left hander on the mound. It’s just one stat. But it helps explain why the Rays were so much better on defense this year versus last year. They also had Longoria at third and a better outfield. But Bartlett got to a lot more balls on that turf than Harris.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I agree
>>But I think Bartlett is a much better shortstop than Harris defensively.
Of course, there’s not a single place on this board where I have ever said otherwise. If that’s not the case, point it out.
>When the Tampa media voted for Bartlett as MVP, it was not because of his offense. It was because the Rays allowed 200 fewer runs in 2008 than 2007, and presumably the shortstop had something to do with it.
I don’t understand why we’re taking the Tampa sports writers word for anything. Most posters on this board have little regard for sports writers, based on comments made here, and you would be at the very top of that list. So why are you relying on what they have to say?
I wonder how many more or how many fewer ground balls Rays pitchers allowed as opposed to line drives and pop flies, comparing 2008 to 2007. I wonder how many fewer home runs they allowed, and how many were 2-, 3- and 4-BI home runs. My guess is the Rays’ pitchers chopped off about 50 fewer runs this year on a reduction in HRs allowed alone. Bartlett would have nothing to do with that.
I’d also be curious how these pitchers fared during Bartlett’s prolonged absence. And how the team did.
Tossing out that number of runs and trying to credit Bartlett for some unspecified segment of this is little different than saying the Twins scored 100-plus more runs last season compared to 2007, and it’s likely we can we attribute that increase to the absence of Bartlett’s pop-gun offense. Of course, that’s a ridiculous assertion, but no less ridiculous than to toss out that 200 number and associate it exclusively with Bartlett. How come we’re not tossing out the 200 number and suggesting Longoria had something to do with it?
And why are we isolating Scott Kazmir? Just because he started Game 1 of the Series? What’s that got to do with solid research?
I don’t see anything in your post that even hints at how many runs Bartlett might saved the Rays (or are you saying he saved 200 runs?), let alone how that translated into wins.
by Johnny Safron on Oct 28, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Nobody
Nobody said Bartlett was responsible for all or most of the difference. But the fact is the Rays had a massive improvement in their team run prevention this year, both from a great increase in defense and greatly improved pitching. Shortstop is probably the second most important defensive position on the diamond, and the Rays certainly benefited a great, great deal from replacing Brendon Harris, one of the worst defensive shortstops around, with Jason Bartlett, a very good defensive shortstop. Were there a lot of other guys making a difference too? Sure, but then again, there was plenty of difference to go around as 200 is a pretty massive number.
I don’t think anyone was saying that Bartlett SHOULD be the MVP in Tampa. That got a lot of ridicule and is pretty ridiculous. But that huge difference in up the middle defense is certainly why he was voted as such. He wasn’t the best player, but in terms of bettering the team’s run differential, the GM move of replacing Bartlett with Harris was probably one of, if not the, biggest improvement the Rays made this offseason.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
You could back them up with some stats
More importantly, nobody mentioned anyone else, including Longoria, when dicussing the reduction in runs allowed between 07 and 08. Only Bartlett was mentioned.
But you did not back up a single remark with support. Review the questions I asked, dig up some of those numbers, and then present them. Do it objectively. You might be very surprised that Bartlett had less impact than you think. Or you might learn there is plenty of support for your assertion.
But the way to do this is to have a theory and then go out and find out if it’s true. The way not to do this is to either make a statement with no support, or to just look for the numbers that suit your position and ignore the others. Because that’s not Sabermatics, that just spewing opinions, which is what Sabermatics is supposed to improve on.
Tossing our the 200 runs and not even bothering to ask, “I wonder how many fewer home runs were allowed by Tampa pitchers” is one way to start. That’s not going to work in the favor of the Tampa sports writers, because undoubtedly the Rays allowed fewer home runs this year, and that’s going to trim that number below 200. The number of runs reduced will still be impressive, but not as impressive. Then there will be other factors not related to Bartlett that will further reduce the number. It’s inevitable.
When you are done with just that part of the review, you will have an entirely new starting point.
And take a look at the Rays record without Bartlett. What was the W-L record with him out of the lineup. That will be easy for you to do because he missed one big stretch which will account for most of the games started by others at SS in ‘08. Was the Rays’ W-L percentage worse with him not starting, or better? If it’s better, it’s a strong argument that he wasn’t the MVP. If it’s almost the same, it suggests he might not have been as valuable as thought, but maybe he was worthy of the MVP.
If you note, I’m saying Bartlett was not the MVP and that he isn’t a very good ballplayer. I didn’t say he had nothing to do with the run reduction. I’m saying it sure as hell wasn’t close to 200 runs, and I don’t see why anyone would use that number in support of his MVP annointing.
Restatement
In response to an objection to my evidence that Kazmir’s ERA remained the same from 2007 to 2008 while his BABIP went down significantly and his FIP went up considerably, I made this comment:
No, but the shortstop caught many of those balls
Short gets the most action, especially with a left hander on the mound. It’s just one stat. But it helps explain why the Rays were so much better on defense this year versus last year. They also had Longoria at third and a better outfield. But Bartlett got to a lot more balls on that turf than Harris.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Many factors resulted in the Rays' poor infield defense last season.
Two outfielders – Upton and Zobrist – played enough infield for the Rays last year to remove Harris as the scapegoat.
You are picking on Harris needlessly. He stepped in to shore up shortstop, and he did just that. Zobrist started the season at SS for the team in 07. Zobrist and Josh Wilson started 73 games – almost half – at SS for the Rays in 07. Harris was better than both.
As for the restatement? Why? You need to elaborate, not restate, in regard to the “stat” that short gets more action with lefties on the mound:
1) Where is that stat?
2) Where are the stats to support that this happened in in both 07 and 08 with Kazmir on the mound?
by Johnny Safron on Oct 29, 2008 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't want a pissing match
I was restating because you said:
nobody mentioned anyone else, including Longoria, when dicussing the reduction in runs allowed between 07 and 08.
But I agree with you. I think the whole defense thing is exaggerated. I do think he was a huge improvement at short over his 07 counterparts, Harris being one. But Harris is needlessly being made a scapegoat because he was involved in a trade with Bartlett.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You could back them up with some stats
More importantly, nobody mentioned anyone else, including Longoria, when dicussing the reduction in runs allowed between 07 and 08. Only Bartlett was mentioned.
But you did not back up a single remark with support. Review the questions I asked, dig up some of those numbers, and then present them. Do it objectively. You might be very surprised that Bartlett had less impact than you think. Or you might learn there is plenty of support for your assertion.
But the way to do this is to have a theory and then go out and find out if it’s true. The way not to do this is to either make a statement with no support, or to just look for the numbers that suit your position and ignore the others. Because that’s not Sabermatics, that just spewing opinions, which is what Sabermatics is supposed to improve on.
Tossing our the 200 runs and not even bothering to ask, “I wonder how many fewer home runs were allowed by Tampa pitchers” is one way to start. That’s not going to work in the favor of the Tampa sports writers, because undoubtedly the Rays allowed fewer home runs this year, and that’s going to trim that number below 200. The number of runs reduced will still be impressive, but not as impressive. Then there will be other factors not related to Bartlett that will further reduce the number. It’s inevitable.
When you are done with just that part of the review, you will have an entirely new starting point.
And take a look at the Rays record without Bartlett. What was the W-L record with him out of the lineup. That will be easy for you to do because he missed one big stretch which will account for most of the games started by others at SS in ‘08. Was the Rays’ W-L percentage worse with him not starting, or better? If it’s better, it’s a strong argument that he wasn’t the MVP. If it’s almost the same, it suggests he might not have been as valuable as thought, but maybe he was worthy of the MVP.
If you note, I’m saying Bartlett was not the MVP and that he isn’t a very good ballplayer. I didn’t say he had nothing to do with the run reduction. I’m saying it sure as hell wasn’t close to 200 runs, and I don’t see why anyone would use that number in support of his MVP annointing.
reid brignac is going to replace bartlett at some point of 09
at least i hope, i like bartlett but i think that reid brignac is going to be much better offensively and not too different defensively
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
Wait a minute..
This is a no-brainer, Bartlett was named team MVP, he has blossomed into being a leader in the clubhouse as well as having a pretty good season defensively, improving quite a bit from last year. Isn’t it ironic that these were the exact things the Twins were concerned he didn’t have?
Now as far as Harris is concerned, I am of the strong opinion that the Twins should spend some money on a solid power-hitting 3B. I wasn’t really impressed with Harris although, I think he is useful in a utility role. But what about Matt Tolbert? If the Twins don’t go shopping for a 3B this offseason then I still think Tolbert is a better option than Harris.

by 



















