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Twins Off-Season Question #1: What Do We Have?

Over the next couple of weeks we'll tackle exactly what questions the Twins need to answer by the time they get to spring training.  Even then there can be changes, but they'll have directions and expectations by then.  Hopefully the discussion we generate here can give us a little insight into how Minnesota will aproach this winter.

The off-season is the time for a full, top-to-bottom assessment of the entire organization; what you have and what you don't, what you want and what you need, where you're going and where you've been.  There's always a focus on the following season, but everything must be done with conscious decision of the future.  So asking the question "What Do We Have" is more about understanding priorities than categorically running down a list of names and scratching in a "yes" or a "no".

But yeah, there's probably a little bit of that, too.

Understanding what we have helps to answer what's missing, and so I'll be categorizing certain parts of the team (both by skill and position) in one of three ways.  High Priority, meaning it's an issue that will be addressed one way or the other over the coming months; Low Priority, meaning skills or positions that do not need to be addressed prior to spring training; and Wish List, which are things not quite as integral as High Priority, but are things that would definitely benefit the team by being addressed.

Low Priority

Catchers - With one of the game's best catchers (at 26 next season) locked up through 2010 for the moment, and with Mike Redmond having his option picked up earlier this month, the only thing the Twins need to worry about here is who would be the emergency catcher.  Even with Redmond being 38 next year, this position is pretty far down on the agenda of things to tweak.

Outfield - A pair of talented guys who were 22 this year, another one just coming into his own (albeit more often as a designated hitter), a guy who will be entering the second of a three-year deal and a longtime prospect who just had a breakout season...that's not bad.  While it's a position that's not without questions, there's no need to complicate a crowded position.  Whatever solutions lie in the outfield, it's all but certain that they're already in-house.

First Base - Justin Morneau has been a full-time player for the last four seasons, and hasn't played in fewer than 157 in the last three.  He's a low injury risk and keeps himself in excellent shape, and his production over the last three years leaves little room for complaint.

Second Base - Although he tailed off late in the season offensively, Alexi Casilla certainly took control of this position.  It's now his position to lose, and while there can be some debate over whether he could be moved to shortstop in the future, right now we don't want to play with too many complications or "what if's".  Casilla is an incumbant at second.

Speed - Denard Span, Alexi Casilla and Carlos Gomez are a trio of exceedingly fast players, and with the youth of this team there aren't a lot of guys who really pull a plow.  While this speed isn't necessarily being utilized to its full potential, it's a skill that can be honed.  Minnesota isn't a team that has to worry about clogging up the basepaths at any rate, which means this is a skill that doesn't need to become a focus this winter.

Leadoff Hitter - This is a very general term, because it can mean a number of things depending on what a team is looking for.  Ideally, this player combines patience at the plate with a good eye, good speed and a knack for getting on base, by getting hits and taking walks.  Whatever the case may be, Denard Span emerged as the leadoff hitter this team needed, and just like Casilla at second base the leadoff role is Span's to lose.  There are other candidates who the Twins wouldn't hesitate to use in such a capacity, but for now they don't need to go looking for a table setter.

High Priority

Hitting for Power - This can come in a number of ways, whether it's by a specialist that can be brought in off the bench in certain situations, or whether it's by bringing in an everyday player at a position that can be upgraded.  While the Twins will count on increased power production from Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young in 2009, the only two players returning as long-ball threats are Justin Morneau (.499 slugging, .199 isolated power) and Jason Kubel (.471 slugging, .199 isolated power).  Minnesota might decide to take a big gamble, and hope both Justin and Jason replicate their numbers while being supplemented by improvements from Cuddyer and Young, but at the very least they should still be exploring options that will give them a bit of reliable pop off the bench.  Craig Monroe, the all-or-nothing guy, doesn't count.  Randy Ruiz is an option, but the Twins might look into free agency here, with an eye on third base.  No matter what route they take, one thing is certain:  it's easier to score runs when you can hit home runs.

Bullpen - The Twins can find a way to add one addtional arm to the bullpen pretty easily, but that's all the leeway they'll have here.  After Joe Nathan the reliability factor and track records faulter a bit, which is why the relief corps should be under intense scrutiny.  Pat Neshek will have to prove he can still be the effective set-up man, which is far from a guarantee at this point.  Matt Guerrier was miserable in '08, and while a bounce back can be expected it's hard to say how much of one it'll be.  Craig Breslow is an unproven commodity, Jesse Crain isn't the "blow-em-away" set-up guy we need, and Philip Humber is likely to make the roster because he's out of options.  I'm an optimist, and I have faith, but the Twins will address the bullpen over the winter.  They may do nothing in the end, but they'll be monitoring their options very closely.

Third Base - With Adrian Beltre as a fairly certain target, the Twins would get a boost on both sides of the ball.  They could go into next season with any combination of in-house options, which would give them a live body, but nothing above average at the plate or in the field.  With the experience and familiarity brought by a combination of Brian Buscher, Matt Macri, Brendan Harris or Matt Tolbert, in-house solutions are a viable option going into next year...but the team would be served by an improvement.  A guy like Beltre would be two birds (third base and power) with one stone.

Wish List

Shortstop - Much like third base, the Twins could find serviceable options within the fold.  Nick Punto could be re-signed, or Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert could also step in.  Short only comes under "Wish List" because of the offensive implications usually associated with a third baseman...which boosts the hot corner up a notch.  The primary issue here with an external option is that the free agent market for shortstop isn't that deep; this is where we could raise the question of Casilla and shorstop, since the market for second basemen is a bit deeper.  But again, right now that's all just speculation.  For the time it's pretty basic--Minnesota could get by on what they have internally, but would again be served by an improvement.

Starting Pitcher - With the youth and inexperience of the five returning starters (Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins), it's realistic to expect some sort of a regression next season.  For this purpose, in spite of how talented this rotation can be on their best days, if the Twins were to go out and pick up a good starter it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  I don't expect this to happen, but with rumblings about a guy like Matt Cain it can't be counted out.

Bench Contact Hitter - If the Twins don't improve offensively at third base or shortstop, the best thing they could do for themselves is to improve their bench prospects offensively.  A good contact hitter or situational hitter, a guy who can appear with confidence whether he played yesterday or four days ago, could be a mint addition.  Yes, you heard me:  mint.

Conclusions

Right now the Twins have relatively few questions, and we know what the primary focus areas for the team will be this winter.  One point that should be understood is that, unless something changes, the Twins only have two (or maybe three) spots to play with on the 25-man roster going into 2009:

Starters:  Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins (5)
Bullpen:  Nathan, Crain, Breslow, Neshek, Guerrier, Humber, Bonser (7)
Catchers:  Mauer, Redmond (2)
Infield:  Morneau, Casilla, Buscher, Tolbert (4)
Outfield:  Cuddyer, Span, Young, Kubel, Gomez (5)

As you can see, the obvious two positions are in the infield, and as we discussed earlier a spot could be made in the bullpen with an easy decision on Boof Bonser or Matt Guerrier.

This is just the beginning, and while discussion can get a bit more speculative or predictive down the road, it's always important at this juncture to have a starting point or to be in neutral.  This post is neutral, at least for now.  We understand who is probably coming back, and we also have a pretty good idea of the priorities of the team for the coming months.

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Tird Base...

There are so many different options and ways the team could go. The four main trade targets that come to my mind are:

  • Adrian Beltre
  • Edwin Encarcion (Spelling)
  • Kevin Kouzmanhoff (Spelling)
  • Garrett Atkins

They could stick with Buscher, Tolbert, Harris, Macris, etc as well. I think most fans would be upset if they didn’t try some type of upgrade though.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with third. I’d take Orlando Cabrera if he is a side deal with a trade for a third basemen.

by Twins Territory on Oct 23, 2008 8:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huff

I keep thinking the Twins should look for Aubrey Huff. He has played 3B most of his career. He’s 31, and has a career .287/.344/.483, with 20-30 HRs/yr.
Baltimore is clearly rebuilding, so they anything that resembles talent should pry him away. He’ll cost $8m, and be in a contract year. I don’t know, but I have to imagine he would bring draft compensation if he leaves.

I’d be happy to give up Perkins and a lesser minor league outfielder, or a lesser AAA pitcher and one of our good minor league outfielders. He’s LH, which is a bit of a shame, but if we got a RH shortstop (Hardy, Escober, etc.) I think we would be ok. In fact, if we didn’t and Cuddyer and Delmon Young showed some power, we’d probably be ok too.

by snolls on Oct 25, 2008 10:02 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, no no....

you do NOT take Orlando Cabrera. He is a Type A Free Agent. That would be the worst signing in Twins history, given what we would have to give up. I cannot stress this enough. I’d rather have (shudder) Nick Punto at SS again than Orlando Cabrera, considering cost.

by DJSkillz on Oct 23, 2008 9:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good stuff Jesse...

and I think you sum up the needs/strengths very well.

Though a small point, you neglect Harris. As of right now, he has to be a lock for one of the infield “spots” on the roster as well, no?

My “likely” targets would be:

Adrian Beltre
Casey Blake (FA)
Joe Crede (FA)
JJ Hardy
Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson

All of those make a lot of sense to me.

by DJSkillz on Oct 23, 2008 9:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm leaning more towards JJ Hardy

It is rumored that Crede would be availabe for a 1 year incentive laden deal. With Hughes and Valencia waiting in the wings, that one makes sense assuming one of those two can pan out. Lkiewise, if Crede were to fail, returning to Buscher/Marci/Harris is not a bad fall back plan.

I tend to believe the Twins have the pieces to pull off one big trade without destroying their future. Those pieces are Perkins (who should have some pretty good value), Bonser (who’s value is lower than I’d like, but there isn’t much room for him), and then a prospect or two to make it happen (Revere strikes me as a guy that may be a nice sell high candidate). I wonder if Milwaukee would take those 3 (or something similar) for Hardy.

Likewise, I think pen help would be nice. Humber is out of options, and I honestly think that he won’t be much worse than perkins was this season. Unless the Twins think that Perkins will figure out how to strike guys out again, he seems to be the odd man out. I also think that a free agent splash for a guy like Juan Cruz or another shutdown type reliever would be wise, as we are one injury or a Pat Neshek horrible return away from being right back where we were this year. Gardy’s bull pen management style works great with 2 or 3 shutdown guys, but if that number dwindles, he will rely too much on those who are still doing well and run them into the ground (see Neshek in 07 and Guerrier/Crain in 08).

by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 23, 2008 9:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Glaring omission

I like this, but there is one glaring omission: Jose Mijares, who is the Twins’ top set-up man going into next season. Also, I think starting pitcher is an area of depth. Sure, we only have five starters, but we also have Bonser, Humber, Mulvey and Duensing waiting in the wings. The two ares of strength I expect the Twins to deal from to fill holes include starting pitching and outfield. Bill Smith has said as much. Smith also mentioned Pridie as a legitimate sixth outfielder (in interviews with LEN 3 and Tom Powers). So, though he didn’t want to name names, I expect him to deal an outfieilder this off season.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Oct 23, 2008 10:47 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agree...

wholeheartedly.

I think we’re going to see some wheeling and dealing from Smith this offseason again.

I’d be shocked if one of our starters (my hope is Perkins, but it might be Blackburn) and one of our OF’s (most likely Delmon IMO) aren’t both moved this offseason.

by DJSkillz on Oct 24, 2008 10:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Being an M's fan I say Beltre leaves if 2 prospects are offered.

Heck we should throw in a free Jarrod Washburn if that might get it done.

BOOYA! You got Slurved!

by Slurvey on Oct 24, 2008 12:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Two prospects?

How about this:

Khol Nanney, RHP, GCL Twins
Josmil Pinto, C, GCL Twins

for

Adrian Beltre AND Jarrod Washburn

Sounds fair to me, right?

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by Andersklasen on Oct 24, 2008 12:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

NO WASHBURN

Please… not washburn. Horrible idea.

by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 24, 2008 2:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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